Typhoon Tip

There's a high pressure that despite the faster than normal jet structures and power, relative to summer climo, is managing to anchor across Ontario. It's ultimately there because because there's this weird persistence of N-stream mashing the flow S spanning southern Canada, and this is creating a 'standing wave' confluence ... etc... That's really the problem. The N-stream won't die this year. It's frankly been promoting over active wave spacing in the atmosphere at unusually late climate/seasonality. Regardless of Euro-esque, or Good For Shit modeled versions for the weekend, they all are very winter like. I mentioned this yesterday. I imagine that in December as a icy mix with snow chances, albeit light, but Currier&Ives for the run up to the holidays. In the summer? You get -5 dailies/Baffin Island climate

this is true... I read that and was wondering what version of the operational GFS they are cluing in on when it comes to rain ... heh. In fact, I thought the GFS was the more rancid of the choices. The missive is right about the 'stretching' aspect though - that much the author is spot on. In fact, the GFS stretches as model-native bias at all times. some times more evident than others, but I have been railing on about this for years frankly. It's also true - in principle - that weaker systems in a high speed zonal flow tendency are tricky.

It depends... There's no time constraint in the repeating fractals of nature. They are a matter of probability - yes .. it is less likely that a repeating pattern would repeat at longer lengths of time; considering, permutations capable of effecting change to an ongoing system also increase in likelihood the longer the repeating system exists. However, "less" is why some people end up wealthy with accesses to lavishness, hot sex with those they actually want to be with, as a life, while others with the exact same aptitude, effort and application ... do not. It is possible, however less likely ... that this will not change until time has run out on summer.

I mean just look at this CMC run ... Not that it's very likely to happen this way, but the fact that it's even being modeled by a valid machinery of real physics. Chicago with thickness over 580, with sub-530 N o Maine! On the Solstice of summer. I wonder what that delta circumstance is in historical precedence.

something weird is going on all over the place

No one's asking me ... I get it. But this is not as bad as May 2005 imho.

Wednesday and Thursday should be 80 with sun around ... just when it is important for everyone to be that way -

Because of the stunningly stalwart defiance to change (the trend that has never un-trended itself ... ) I'm gonna go ahead and just assume this precarious weekend dong set up of a pattern will go ahead a verify the rape and claim a 14th soul in row ... At this point, we've seen a dozen different modeled reasons to not fuck up a weekend's sensible weather, with a 0-15 W-L record. Sometimes, the trend just has to end per its own unpredictable nature, and it's just a waiting game. That means no matter what outlook says otherwise, the onus in on the trend to stop at all. Because apparently ... there are no scenarios capable of stopping it within the capacity of human technology for detection. So, if you're an operational Met predicting the summer, you forecast all weekends fucked until further notice. Capiche?

A peculiar aspect has been going on between the teleconnection prognostics ( from all sources), vs the operational counter parts of those sources. Those being ECMWF, GFS, CMC The telecons spread has been correlated to warmer than normal since early April The operational runs have been routinely/predominatingly low-balling, with modeled outlooks persistently materializing synoptics that look like at best like they are at the bottom margin of the correlation fields. They're doing it again now ... they are unrelenting keeping a N-stream anachronistic to the season, and this is suppressing real heat, as well as making flow unusually progressive along 40N across the continent ( not sure if this is a hemispheric plague but I suspect it's just N/A where this has been/is still the modeled case). And they have been winning.. We've had one or two hot days, everything else has been pedestrian. But here's the thing ... they kind of both have been winning and losing. Because temperatures have in fact verified above normal so far AMJ/3. But the devil's in relativity. The pattern relative temperatures have verified much warmer than the operational pattern. This may or may not be CC hiding in the works, but whatever the cause ...we have been getting warmer than the verified patterns suggests we should - all the while, the verifying pattern has not been very well correlated to the teleconnections. This doesn't bode well for the summer ... If it continues with this head game, those that want the true deep heat may have to deal with a temperate summer. Basically also just a continuation of the winter, where N/A apparently was the nadir in temperatures compared to the rest of the entire planet.

Oh the models are buckin' for a winter pattern analog - just doing it aoa 564 thickness instead of 534 - Take the depth of the thickness out if for sake of discussion, if you saw these synoptic features set up this way ( as the 00z Euro below), on Dec 10, you'd be giddy for mood snows and holiday vibes...

we had one here for about 15 minutes yesterday morning.... Just got power fully restored. Lots of trees snapped off and laid across power lines making roads into and out of town ...some impassible. Altho canes don't typically have quarter sized hail and near continuous lightning ... but the roar of the wind was such that not thunder was really audible until the storm was moving and we were looking at CB bum

Lol I can’t upload the photo that I have because apparently iPhone 16 is rendering in too much HD I had an antiquated iPhone 7 up until recently… Never had a problem with pasting in photos. But I can’t with this iPhone 16.Keep getting a space exceeds notification instead.

81/73 .... after a severe storm ? what is this, Texas

hey so ... we incurred a severe verification in my local township between 7 and 7:40 this morning. I bore witness to tree calving.. heh Anyway, estimating a 60 mph gusting and I had hail up to between nickle and quarter sized. I was wondering if that may have been EML loaded. This cell was bit of an over-achiever in an ongoing small cluster that came down Rt 2 in N Mass, and then sat showed a rather intense anvil radial expansion right over us, then all hell broke loose for 5 minutes - this was very wet microburst in appearance.

Not all of us are "making America great again"

yeah, I'm high confidence after eval that this was a wet microburst. Specific rad pulse took place as sat showed a circumvella over shooting anvil exploding radially, and then within moments we had timbre cracked wind/rain/hail for 5 minutes of hell. As Chris Farley would say .... " It was AWWesome"

trough episodes dude. he's probably just meaning that the big heat chances are on hold and that's pretty evidence from what i'm seeing here as well. Perhaps 12 - 16th ? that's also been flirting with the guidance as the next window, anyway. the upshot is that it's NW flow type cool backs, not Labroador's sharting BDs at us and/or laminar E flow drear that we're talking about.

short range guidance appear to have dried things out considerably, as well. Tomorrow looks decent on the 06z nam - fwiw - on saturday. About 77 F with partly cloudy ?

Perhaps the most severe storm since I've lived at this address, 20 minutes ago. Miraculously, we did not lose power, but watched two trees topple in a froth of rain and quarter sized hail roaring so loud that the multi-pulsing flickers of lightning could not be heard. I looked at radar and saw one thunderstorm cell ... everyone else to edge of the scan range was spared. It's since expanded some and elongated... Good morning! haha Looking at sat and rad more detailed ... that was a very intense pulse within an ongoing small cluster coming down Rt 2. I suspect we wet mircroburst around Ayer. Not sure - in fact don't believe so judging ... - that this extended much beyond this locality.

same here... it's 61 so the DP's really failing to just acclimation bias and not being used to 90s.

according to NWS it's 97 at Acton, 97 at Littleton, 96 at Hudson, and 95 at the Oxbow on Rt 2 ( 2.5 mi from here). I have 95 and 96's at several home sites around me too yeah, it's legit. First "big heat" this year. In fact, I don't think we had a big heat ( 95+ ) last summer, did we? if so it was rare.

I believe it ... we may have a legit case for realized maxes in between the NWS sites. Lotta home site 95s - too many

I'm masochistically seeing how long I can stand it... 85 in the living room, 93 in the front yard. I have a fully realized and functional mini split unit here in the living room, with a lowest cool setting of 57, turned off at the moment. muahhahahaha

most home sites within a mile of me are 94 .. 95, and KFIT's 93... This is legit. Probably some acclimation bias going on but this feels very hot today. Calm wind, too. Leafs drooping, bathing in heat, under a static rotisserie lamp sunny day

meh... mostly dps are in the 60s