Typhoon Tip

Also - the 16th has the better shot of being a "criteria verifying" event than the predecessors.

Wrong side of the gradient .. .? I think by that we mean just warm. The gradient is Cuba to Hudson Bay distinction. Lol... But even so, the 12z GFS traded off strength for the 13th, which allows for colder solution. 16th is coming in chilly too. Seems the models are oscillating within the gradient manifold so taken with a degree of incredulity.

Not to pour acid into a paper cut but I wonder if this is what our winters will be for the rest of our lives... and/or getting worse. Like it's not going back to 1995, ever again. This year could be a "2015" modulated by/with a "2023" temperature burst... I'm just basing that posit on persistent "era relative behavior" and suspecting gradient is a problem -how. Regardless of any antecedent teleconditioning correlation - the correlations are all failing. ENSO disruptions, to -EPO only causing compression that is a base-line negative interference fuckitude... We keep playing this game that it's just circumstantial and we'll have to wait. What exactly would we be waiting for? - no, ... that completely elides that what one is waiting for may not be capable of manifesting. It has to be at least considered to be rarefying to a low likeliness of return. I just keep coming back to this notion, as I grapple with what is impossible to ignore at this point ... it seems that we've already moved the climate needle to where we are trading off negative interference, for snow profiles at our latitude. Like yeah ...it's cold enough, but we can't seem to get there without the compression. In a Lego constructive, simple sense of it... if we warm the world, then try to cool off the polar domain, that means higher gradient everywhere. Ding ding ding... sometimes the simple explanation is the best suitable one to explain things.

mm I wonder ... those areas from VT/NH that received the 6-8" might have done it purely on ratio and not on more liq equiv. I also report a mid event period of ZR in this system's 5.25"belly depths. It's not a lot... granted. It's thin, but, it does hold stack height down a little, and... just be virtue of a warm layer intrusion possibly interfering some with the DGZ level, might atone for the couple of inches less down here. In other words, if judging this event purely based on snow depth, the real bust is actually that it was not all snow - you know? interesting. If all snow, the 6-8" might have been more successful. The surface temperatures never moved here throughout the crux of the heavier fall rates. 26Fer .. there was a tuck of sorts later on as we did briefly dip to 24 for a couple hours prior to dawn during those couple of super fluff inches.

It's 2015 snow.. very high ratio. Same here. 4.5" at dawn, but this final band pivoted south and we're 5.25" now..so call it 5.5 and a day. I could almost sweep 5.5" of snow it is so gossamer. Not a bad event. It's officially my biggest of the season - my location. Seasonal total broke 20 now ... 20.5" so call it 21.

OH god. that too, right ? It's funny, I keep seeing these headlines in the sports -related articulation that read like, "With the Chiefs on the brink of becoming the greatest dynasty of all time..." It may be an accident but that such a gaslight attempt! To me anyway... I don't believe that to be true. I think that those with access to pen and purpose have bought into the "royal couple" crap, because it sells and sells their media - but its manic and conflating magazine pop culture pap ... They want it to be so. But no. Neither intangibly or tangibly in the numbers for that matter. Talk to me when they've been dreaded competition, capable of winning the game before the other team ever stepped on the field, for 18 years and won 6. It's a pettiness, I know. I mean, with the world probably closer to the brink of a nuclear holocaust than most are aware, to even if escaping that destiny, definitely not ending well with this climate shit ... to micro plastics in testicles and ovaries, or the fact that pathogenicity and pathology in general are in a crisis state that no one is paying attention to ... and on and on. Do sports of any dimension matter? Nope. But there is something to be said about being glass-eyed, head wobbling fed-up with harangue, and this case it's being completely and utterly ad nauseam at the specter of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift ... What a big delusional ball of import. Guess what... you still stink after sex. Now good luck to you both ... go away for ever.

Tactility brings all humans closer to that which is fleeting.

Bingo ... ... this is, and has been, our problem in this pattern foot so far. Unfortunately, we were warned not to go too crazy with the higher QPF/expectation. One of the reasons for that was definitely connected to the fast flow and compression stuff which I won't care to reiterate. But the kind of excitement driven lure behind why this has become a preoccupation in people ( to these modeling "tools" is a weird affliction ) it's not one very penetrable by reasoning, when the reasons call for constraint. Haha. like oh my god - right? Anyway, relative to this pattern's trend&behaviors, until we trade that for a newer paradigm, I would suggest the 13th and the 16th will probably be behaviorally similar. No guarantee, you may get lucky - but it's a fool's waste of time. It's more likely that 20 to 30% over assessment or whatever in QPF by the guidance. And humans will of course ignore the sound limitation arguments in lieu of the d-drip attic's stunning ability to remain vigil and operate within the framework of restraint ... and we'll go through this all over again. 5" here.

1/2” S 27F

23-26th

Yeah I referred to the 13th as a “trap game” event this morning page 79. It’s possible that the 16th is the more fantastic signal before Thursday and folks might not be paying attention. But the 13th is already thread able imho. Solid presentation by multiple ens means …and a Miller A is already on the operational maps. Frankly that one has a greater QPF potential due to source/origin than really any to date The means are too far inland with a primary for comfort but there’s time

Oh that’s the biggest threat of this pattern if not the whole season

The annular mode has plummeted deeply negative … .. that may also have something to do with it

Here you go Jerry... https://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/albany/FOUS61

hahaha... word! I don't think of bonkers as is 1" qpf I guess. So there's some subjectivity there as to what the AMS Glossary officially codified definition is for that word. lol But it's .96" there on the FOUS qpf column. 30000537959 01925 221910 32999290 30021969247 03418 201309 42999598 36025959049 08925 151309 35989292 36064988921 13113 080511 47009803 42045975604 01020 090213 29999489 42011933520 -3423 103512 39009594 48006755203 -2516 153409 22009387 48000683119 -4324 183211 31019493 I just don't like the hyperbolic lean on everything in here. It only adds to the insufferable mania when something works out as a decline.

yeah, that's what I noticed - it's just a function of better organization. how or why drives that nuanced difference, unknown.. but that's why the shield looks and is denser above the polar boundary interface - stronger everything. It didn't go "bonkers" though. It's better, but this is still constrained by too fast of an event - so I'd just caution folks from going too much d-drip.

I don't think that's ever a possibility in this. This is narrowed impact corridor from a system moving straight west-east across the continent. The jet structures aloft are not impinging that way. In general, it's got some dynamics; it's more a question of where the moisture is coming from for the QPF because the back ground synoptic circumstance suggests drier is supported. That's why we should not be quick to drop the NAM's drier profile - but again...I think there's also folks overdoing it on the dry interpretation - part of the 'oh god oh god' manic thing. haha. Anyway, I just pointed out that the NAM's total QPF is doable for at least an advisory event, given to .3 to .45" liq equiv dropped through an arctic medium.

Here's the NAM FOUS grid QPF for Logan ... .43" liq equiv total... At 20:1 out west of the city ( assuming high ratio) that's 8" 42008959143 06924 151009 35979292 48029975705 03721 110212 28999490 54005764704 -2418 153409 23009388 Maybe the ratios won't be that high. Looks like there could be a "ratio gradient" too.

Fwiw, the NAM's not blanking the surface .. it's just offering a solution no one wants ( obviously...) to consider

I doubt there is a complete whiff in this. The low is triggered initially along the b-c axis because there's a lot of gradient there and the subtle increase in difluence as the jet compression/velocity increases over the boundary leads to wave genesis. But this is actually well ahead of N/stream S/W that is torpedoing along 45 N... This N/stream aft feature eventually catches up to this wave ...eventually giving it a boost in strength once it's long gone, but in the process of closing the gap it's probably going to ignite lighter snows lagging back - pretty much the only way to get a lag in this synoptic speed shit. Anyway, the NAM pretty clearly shows this taking place ... It's not a lot... but, that's 1-2" ...maybe 3", which eliminates the whiff, if using the NAM-like take on this.

I think the NAM coup on the last system - I snarked that the night before if in jest but ...heh There are inherent limitations in these compression/fast stream patterns that we go over, and over, and over again ..., but no sooner do the models show something that's above the phenotype for those limitations, there's this elided perception that takes place. Ha haha .. ... I guess the court yard rabble has always demonstrated a willingness to operate within the confines of restraint, huh - I don't know. Maybe the NAM is wrong this time. Just because there are limitations doesn't mean it can't be overcome - knowing when that is can be art.

Yeah, I'm not sure I disagree with this bold... I mentioned to Will yesterday that I thought this was 4-6" NoP and 6-8" SoP, but that could be generous by the time we get to S NH. I'd also add that this is done in 6 hours - speed of the system and low residence time . However, I also wouldn't be surprised if what Scott's saying might distort things... This is going to be 20:1 under the clouds so if the DGZ doesn't then pass through some elevated warm layer, this system might "lie" about the significance of it by stack efficiency. LOL

Oh shit I'm never disagreeing with that in a CC canvas attempting to usurp a fantastic winter stretch: the collateral damage of that epic war is probably messy systems ... just in principle. Also a manifestation of the war is the compression that seems to be predominating every base line/winter hemisphere since the 2000s, too - but that's going down rabbit hole.

I'm just citing what the numerical teleconnectors are correlating as of recent days. The -PNA underpinning with a strongly negative NAO over the western limb, does not permit ( typically ) low positions moving through the Lakes. But I suspect you're just being euphemistic lol S/W don't bounce of ridges ... ? They are either absorbing into the flow by destructive interference, or being emphasized by the flow due to constructive interference. This behavior is manifest by S/W attenuation, such as moving the wave space through a compressed medium ( for example...). Conversely, it may look like a ping ponging but what's really taking place is the S/W is taking pathway that is constructive interfering wrt to where the L/W axis really is anchored. And this can all be partial too - which becomes a head game of how much so... I've seen weird interference patterns where the models look to attempt to send S/W against the larger wave space mechanical layout, but where that usually morphs/corrects is the old squeeze play. Low moves up Michigan and slams to a halt and starts vomiting smaller waves along the east extension, and/or if the primary is BUF ... a Miller B is an option. This is all idealized too - I'm sure there are anomalies relative to anomalies, couched in yet bigger anomalies like a Russian Nesting doll of misfortune, too.