Typhoon Tip

Every month next winter is likelier than not to be above normal across mid latitude N/A - it's a matter of how much or little.

GFS up to it's usual unique talent to wall off warmth from getting N next week... That huge ridge at mid and upper levels .. yet it somehow engineers the means to keep a cool E flow from ORD to Boston

We should also also qualify the contest. Ha! I mean this is the 'solar forcing' contest. Yeah, I've witnessed more. I actually saw a 54 F spread in January 1994. It was a +9 F at dawn; 63 F that evening at 9pm with southerly whole gales leanin' tree tops and plumes of steam rollin' off of snow banks. Different beast. These spring diurnal wars between Earth and sun are interesting for a excruciating dweeb like myself; the Earth's will to keep it miserably cold at this time of year, gets its ass thoroughly tanned by a boarding school nun sun.

Prohibitive favorite for top diurnal spread today... Bottomed out at 29 around 5:50 am just before the dimmer switch started elevating the light. It is onw 56 already. A 27 F correction thru 9:40 am. 850 mb Ts mature to +3 by 21z ... I doubt the mixing hgt gets that tall but we'll see. The sun is pretty ferocious now and sat and sky truth are both diamond clear with 0 inclusions. So the super adiabatic layer at the bottom will be violently bouncing against the ceiling. It may be a late high ... between 4 and 5 pm. Was visualizing about 67 at BDL and FIT and I'll be damned if MAV machine numbers are right there. But assuming so ... 38 or 39 spread at a time of year where a 1 to 2 pt machine cool bias is not unheard of ...we could cap out at 40 degree spread. wow Sneaky pick of the week day. I mentioned that today had a chance to be a gem but I think we're all too captivated by the size of the seasonal dong we're about to take Thursday to at least enjoy a swell day in the foreground ?

It's because Dandruff isn't soluble in water -

Okay put it this way... whatever version of winter one is suffering or celebrating, notwithstanding ... that season persists. Lol But again ...I suspect there's a pretty clear switch sweeping across the continent later this week. Friday transitions. Saturday big high moves ESE of the area ... and heights rise modestly positive while 850 deeper cold rapidly retreats into higher latitude Canada. Sunday and Monday solidly AN with overnight lows this time also staying above average. Either a proper front or a BD perhaps after that doesn't have the same annoying shade temps

half the days in an average January, if you placed April 22 sun over head would also be 54 F - it's winter still. sorry... Like I said this morning, we're not out of the gravity well yet

Guys ...there's a pollution thread

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2024/04/climate/plastic-pollution-ocean-cnnphotos/

Anyone west of a I95 tomorrow ( Tues ) may have a sneaky run at 70. 850s pop to +3 C between 18z and 00z, with general ceiling level RH < 50% not three weeks before entry into solar max time of year ... the MOS and man expectations will definitely hold the temperatures down too much - how much so, notwithstanding. But +3 at 850, if the mixing depth gets that high, is 64 at the sfc - then the "tree height" slope at the bottom of the sounding is easily 70. Unfortunately ... from Scott to PVD to metrowest to N. Shore probably get caressed by Labrador urine

Changes coming. The modeling horizon glows with the distant twilight. ...Having just said that about 32, a real shot at this week being the last of that crap given to the multi-sourced modeled tapestry beyond this Friday. No promises of course, but that's a definitive complexion shift over the whole hemisphere. Happens every year going in either direction ... the levee of the old finally caves into seasonal forcing and there's a series of days when the modeling represent that by flushing the system

Thick frost here ... 32 on the button. Haven't truly escape the gravity of this last winter until this shit stops. I don't care where the temperatures have been thus far -

Imho, the large paradox is that human evolution is evolving it's de-evolution.

12z Euro got the memo... ... what a blue bird special both weekend days. 2-meter Ts on the raw model are about 7 to 10 cooler than what they'll likely really be given those total synoptic metrics. Figure near 70 Sat and in the 70s on Sunday, with light wind and 90+ % of possible sun.

You mean like Hansen? Not just him ... there are a lot. Many, many scientists waving their proverbial arms on street corners of the great media-sphere, warning of Armageddon. The problem isn't the scientists. The problem is whether society treats them now the same way as those disregarded raving religious loons doing the same. There's a lot of counter-cultural bias against science in general that has evolved over the last 20 years. Remember back to the early years of the "fake news" ? That was actually originally, "alternative facts" It was literally called that if anyone can recall. As though 'facts' can be in two places at once, I guess. There was (and still is) an unnervingly large number of population that actually believe(d) that made(kes) it okay to deny a given message, out of hand, if/when the message does not agree with their group or individual narratives. What they want actually becomes the truth, a fate that is sealed when they run out and find others that jive with their personal mind space - "so it must be true". I heard this phenomenon once referred to as "etho-chambers" - love that expression. Polish enough absurdities by rubbing them off enough kindred minded folk, and you can make just about anything seem real. I call it 'populist folie à deux' (folie à deux means shared psychosis). , and starts transmitting around an enable population ... enabled by industrial powered alternatives - people don't suffer consequences for their mistakes because the former advantages supply too many recourses. So any truth is now negotiable. And not all of this is like walking coolly around these messengers of science. There are those that risk being met with actual vitriol if not violent threats - in a "reality" where violence acts without restraint has become relatively common place, no less. Considering scientists by trade: it's not hard to imagine their apprehension in that realm. The idea of leaping out in front with any kind of message that doesn't jive with the zeitgeist. Most of them are not hailing from a realm of patent wealth and are yet to make their big splash...etc...etc, with lives they're trying to support. No need to elaborate further. But despite this...there are those up on the stage behind the chicken wire.

guys... don't fight it - this is a chilly week in the large synoptic sense of it. Let it happen and go by .. Beyond D5 the whole tapestry for the hemisphere is milder to warm at times. The only thing will be an enhanced BD risk, a bit higher than climo given to all that curved flow type between here in Greenland. We really need a more zonal flow through the Maritime of Canada. Cross those bridges but D6 to 10 may have a couple days of AN over night times that are notably milder.

one the more impressive forsythia bloom years I can recall in quite a long time. Dense displays with vivid pop. And it's not just one or two yards... it's everywhere between Ayer and Auburn in Middlesex arguing for something 'pheno-responsive'

Is it my mistake ( Tam' ? ) or isn't it early for even Norways? Obviously they're the most eager every spring but I think they are also more variable of all big stem species and can be triggered by a season's 'climate personality.' My sister was telling me that Norways are actually invasive to N/A. Either way, their florets give off a subtle sweet aroma that for me sparks a lot of nostalgia for some reason - ... I just can't remember her name or if she ever existed. LOL.

Norway maples exploding open all over town. It actually first started two days ago… Mark on the calendar, April 18.

yeah this too... Although, I do recall a fair number of mornings with car top frost. Lot of them actually, so who knows. I mean then we gotta get into valleys vs highlands. Some of these dead still mornings with car top frost are like 35 F here in the Nashoba Valley ( to use my location for example - ) but ORH was 40 at the time. In fact, while we're at it... I have a pet peeve about all the SNE "climate" sites. The only one that I use really is HFD... because for 90% of us or more it is the only physical-geographically relevant location there is out of all 3. ORH is 1,000" high. BOS is out on a island in N. f'um Atlantic's Labrador devil's blood head waters. While PVD is too prone to ocean taint as well... Any kind of climate feed coming from these sites is dubious and I also feel skew records if/when incorporating them into ongoing effort and assessment. This is probably arguable among other sites across N/A and the world... but we have 3 annoyingly dubious ones in our own AFD back yard.

Every time I read these drive by statements about an AN month, during a month that clearly "feels" cool I wonder about CC acclimation skewing perceptions. Not being above that myself, this month simply feels like a cold p.o.s. to me - which based on what I just said, may and probably is not entirely fair. LOL. I think I have a personal bullshit bias I'm stuck with that we're supposed to be getting these Mar/Apr crazy warm episodes now, based in no small part on the fact that 7 out of the last 10 years have hosted early bud pushin' orchard killin' false expectation inducin' warm bursts. Perhaps this year we are getting to the same AN result, just doing so along a more aggregated, yet tamer SD dailies ? Some of those years that had the weird 80 days really early, also put down a cold week with heavy snow later on, too. More spiky perhaps...

yeah... GFS and Euro even more divorced re the D6-10 range

I see that. Yeah, it'd be difficult to parse that out given that part of the world. This is their 'hot season,' under near upright sun angle. Like in the Pacific Northwest in June 2021 ... comparing model output to verification/climatology is an easier distinction. But it was historically hot in the Sahel nonetheless.

00z Euro (operational) threw out the bathwater on the cold p.o.s. useless pattern. heh The GGEM also tossed. These models are both parting company with the GFS, which is holding onto the idea of plunking a -2.5 SD micro nuke at 500 mb down over NE at D6/7... It's doing it over a seasonally neutered baroclinic ambient lower troposphere, though ...so all we get from that is a paltry 1002 mb surface response and bunch of grapply/pea hail low top convection below the summit snows up N. The GFS has cold/amplitude bias beyond D 5..6..7 -ish. All troughs, closed or open, are consummately deeper than every other guidance in and beyond that time range in every run of the GFS, always () . There are certainly times when deeper verified(s) better, and the GFS looks pretty good. But every time? I doubt it. It's one aspect about the GFS I noticed around 2013 or so and has persisted since. It tends to accumulate colder heights over the polar side of the best perceived latitude of the main jet. Such that by the time a D10 roles around - when it doesn't matter LOL - it looks like the PV/arctic domain is in a state of regressing global warming... (sarcasm). It's actually relatively subtle, and not the same amount. But some 6 to 10 dm deeper in the nadirs of 500 mb across the hemisphere, relative to all other guidance, is too commonly observed for comfort. That subtle deeper depth concomitantly increases the ambient gradient, which leads to increased basal flow rate of the polar jet. I suspect this is why we get so many top heavy ridges in spring in the GFS, where it looks at 500 mb like a big warm up is coming, but the GFS ends up with a 1045 mb high over western Ontario, directing an E wind everywhere. The faster consequential flow velocity meant that confluence ended up too strong --> bigger high. Warmth excludes from the surface. The GFS has trouble getting SW lower troposphere flows under raising 500 mb to concurrently happen out in time. The model is uniquely adept at hiding warm up potentials, right at time of year when that it preferential to do so - nice!

I was also wondering about the ejecta heights in that question of his, too. 70 K feet is really barely punching through the tropopause over the equatorial latitudes. The altitude being ~ 60K ... but the termination into the stratosphere is obviously more the 10 K. That might matter. S02 in the troposphere where turbulent mixing and H20 interaction/reactions ..etc, disperses a local volcanic event to where it probably barely shows up as a blip in the total global PP(unit-v) within short months. Get an inject into the stratosphere though - different ball game.