Typhoon Tip

speaking of which ... they picked up a right handed bat with a career Fenway average of 375 after 21 games played there. maybe they're really trying to actually build a f'n roster rather than gaslighting their fan constituency -

by all means, .... give it a try

For winter enthusiasts ..it'd be nice if the dungeon master were to fall asleep on one and let it over-perform, then we wake up on Sunday morning to a fully loaded 20th

we may also get some partial sun in an hour

Heh...this is such a wiener schnitzel run of the eps mean... Some of those impressive western members must have stalled, too... because they just get out of control and haven't moved much in the 6 hours

oh, shit - man ...been doing that all day. That supposed to be in the PD thread... er, I think? The one for the 17th ... wtf does PD mean. President's Day that's not a "holiday weekend" c'mon man

Man these western members are something else -

Sick CAD signal for the weekend

Fwiw - the spread's definitely on the western side of the envelope here... It's also one of those deals where the members that are west, some are exceptionally deep - particularly for 180 hours

Those positive 500 mb anomalies, whether well described by the curved isohypses or not ... may provide enough impetus to to force the SPV S-SE. I'm just noting - personally - that the real reason the operational run was too late, was because this run lacks the S/Stream potency early enough in the dynamic stream interaction. The 500 mb cinema shows a multi contouring 500 mb surface is evolving with very potent DPVA already prior reaching the longitude of the NJ coast, yet... it's only got a paltry 1000 mb low passing toward the BM at that time ( 174-180 )... That is suspiciously underdone given that it's already bombing at mid levels. That should have been captured by then and gone bananas, but the problem is... the S/Stream being so weak it's not integrating those kinematics to the lower levels in time. It's trying to subsume and it can't find the it -

it's all good man

Aw cheer up ... after all "nobody knows"

Ha, that had occurred to me, m'man. However, I'm very cautiously optimistic that won't happen "as much" ... because the longer lead projections of the EPO are nominal through mid March actually. ( as in aside, the spread et al is significantly warmer local hemisphere by the Ides... but who knows - ) But - I think you touched on it earlier? - there is a +PNA ballooning between the 20th and the end of the month, this time, sans the -EPO cold hammer. It may not be a bad thing for a window of opportunity in this regime, because the flow character, being less like an elephants giant ass mashing a trampoline down, allows for more local-scale curvature to actually take place in the proverbial meshing of the trampoline...

You got the basic idea with the wave frequency aspects. The western ridge needs to probe higher in latitude, post the eject east across the continent with the Pacific goodies. That would direct the subsuming SPV more S and also, the S/Stream S/W would get a constructive interference feed-back on amplitude, and because of having more N-S total construct, ...the field necessarily slows down. etc.. But, the -d(gradient) is just to describe the back ground state of compression as alleviating some, while all that is happening. There's a kind of a disconnect - though they are related. The lowering gradient allows for frequency gains, but so far... the models are not doing that. The gradient seems to slack off a little while the frequencies stay the same. So these solutions are varying between partial and no phasing in a cosmic prick tease... haha. j/k there

I rewrote that.. but yeah, this is part of it. But it precipitates out the "molly coddling" aspect. People don't need to learn if they are provided for, and the IR and the generations since, are in a state of diminishing returns. This is part of the Fermi Paradox explanation imho, btw. As an aside, species discover adequate provisions and enhance survival, Darwinism mechanics no longer require evolution to improve, de-evolution takes over. I've referred to this in the past as the catch-22 of advancement.

It's not the cause... The issue is that the targeted audience is no longer equipped to defend their perspectives from the penetration of deception - manipulation follows. There's a reason why psychological science has recently papered a result of mass IQ's being some 20 points lower than early 20th Century. They believe weird shit back then... but that was by virtue of where humanity was in history. They knew how to use their heads, with the limited information they were exposed to, more objectively.

Heh... doesn't even just seem anymore like this, it's really true. Any one of these systems spanning the last 6 weeks of this torturing winter, in this range, whence we are in a state of 'so long as X doesn't happen' X happens. 1::1 correlation on that since Christmas

I know ...was getting mixed up this morning which storm was being covered where. HA.

Interesting .. we got zero ageostrophic llv restoring in this set up, while there is a 1030+ polar high N of Maine. Needed more meso low closure I suppose... I was waiting on a tuck response but it seems that won't happen in this case. That said, even if that happened, it's 34 or 35 as far N as Manchester NH. we wouldn't be draining freezing DPs into the quagmire, anyway. What a disgusting gloppy cold wet silvery piece of shit state of affairs it is out there. Just under 2" of snow that was ZR on top this dawn, has turned into a gray slab 1" thick of pure 7-11 slushy. That stuff out in the yards and fields and so forth is going to be quick-crete when we dip later tonight.

Heights over western N/A are the challenge. This situation leading and during the 20th needs that component to improve, otherwise this will be another enhanced modeling challenge over the week with both spatial-temporal aspect, and just spacial synoptic interference issues. It's a bit frustrating because from what I am seeing, the basal hemisphere is a little less compressed ( less is definitely better! ). You can see in the 00z 500 mb height cinema of all three, Euro/CMC/GFS, how the SPV fragment really tries to tuck into the S/stream, but because the flow geometry lacks that meridian restoring ( better ridge west --> constructive depth feedback in the east), the situation ends up stretched looking with the triggered cyclone escaping ENE in the CMC/GFS. The only real difference between the Euro and these misses is the Euro actually gets the thread through the needle's eye on 00z stab. But again ... the flow overall is -d(gradient), and so if a ridge were to materialize over the west, that whole downstream situation would be slower/more proficiency compared to these bottle rocket smear troughs of the last month

oh shit... put that in the wrong thread. sorry bro - i'll move it

Heights over western N/A are the challenge. This situation leading and during the 20th needs that component to improve, otherwise this will be another enhanced modeling challenge over the week with both spatial-temporal aspect, and just spacial synoptic interference issues. It's a bit frustrating because from what I am seeing, the basal hemisphere is a little less compressed ( less is definitely better! ). You can see in the 00z 500 mb height cinema of all three, Euro/CMC/GFS, how the SPV fragment really tries to tuck into the S/stream, but because the flow geometry lacks that meridian restoring ( better ridge west --> constructive depth feedback in the east), the situation ends up stretched looking with the triggered cyclone escaping ENE in the CMC/GFS. The only real difference between the Euro and these misses is the Euro actually gets the thread through the needle's eye on 00z stab. But again ... the flow overall is -d(gradient), and so if a ridge were to materialize over the west, that whole downstream situation would be slower/more proficiency compared to these bottle rocket smear troughs of the last month

identical to here. 1.5" currently 32 on the button with limping -ZR ... accretion is inefficient. I'm waiting on a tuck, not to save this situation but... we have this deal on the 16th that may also offer a tuck opportunity. that system is like this one, only more strength and a little south. So sort of a bush test - unless the 16th does the CMC version in which case we CCB with sleet. zomb

Jesus one way or another you’re gonna get your drama dose out of this huh?

No, Kevin, the run is showing .6 to .7” accretion and not as much over lower elevations. That interpretation just means that there’s some members that have more but that also means there’s are members that have less. But people seem to lean on the idea of some members being more and thinking that it’s some kind of ominous implication, but that’s never been true.