Typhoon Tip

these'll probably go on to roller coaster the autumn ... dipping to near cryo and then soaring to 80 at week's range, clear into novie. this, i suspect, is related/causal i why these october snow chances have become all but common in recent decade(s) heh..every time it snows across the bow air mass, we get this optimism bi-polarism that slams shut when it's 77.8 F 3 days later.

yeah i know ... was just doubling down on the cynicism and how no matter who it is, humans are subjective

because human beings create models, and human beings are more or less influenced ( but always are some way, some how ...) by the existential connection to their sensible surroundings. lot of words to say ... cold and snow is their primary ongoing risks ( or used to be ...) so some how, some way, that influences the way they construct their environmental tooling that is charged with the responsibility of predicting threats. it's not a directive ... more of an indirect bias, hugely subtle.

no shit -

wow man what an incredible day out there 79/55 with no f'n smoke

i think it was a CC attributable meander... ( i can guarantee there is a misconception that attribution is limited to those circumstances that make for dystopian headlines ... but the insidious nature is that it's probably taking place in subtler ways more so than not - albeit unknowable to common experience, and even some of these PHD clowns) there's an interesting paper about this out there where meanders are shown, using climate modeling/super computing, toting cold to mid latitudes at varying scales. they are causing huge temperature variations across relatively short time spans ( intra seasonally..). this strikes me pretty clearly as relatable to all that - ultimately oblivious due to the non-injurious nature.

it probably was ... in most cases ... the warm inflow tends to be on the right side of the storm path, such that the updraft preferentially seeks that sources once the segregation of updraft and downdraft is taking place. as the storm operates in perpetuity, it biases the continuous development in whatever direction is supplying the instability. it's just that there are other forces also concurrent with those mechanics, and the totality of the storm motion will be an average of all that contributes - this more and less obscures matters

weirdly coincidental .. this BBC article surfaces https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240820-why-category-1-hurricane-ernesto-is-still-dangerous?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us

Warmup by several tomorrow

cat 1 winds are dramatic though. it's exciting, and if one is on vacation ...that's like a having an activity day built in day 1 beach day. day 2 hurricaning. day 3 golf, dinner and bangin' ...etc

still zip from the gfs

wait ... i thought that chamber of comm was 72/53 tomorrow and sat are above that, no ?

nam at least is warmer tomorrow and sat interpreting off the grid looks like light west wind, open sky and about 27 c in the 2 m which aligns well enough with the mos/machine it's like 81/56 with light wind under open blue - couple of top 10ers

in theory .. but man, these operational models are fighting the telecon - which are based on the ensemble mean/derivatives that the operational models are a part of... but a -PNA through ~ D8 or 10 should be ridging more here than it is - which is supposed to lower bulk shear and provide a favorable layout down there. it's like we have the cool node the last 2 weeks.. fixed in position between ohio and nova scotia, and the rest of the hemisphere is flowing around it. regardless of mode ...like it's a cold rock in the stream. anyway, farther e the mdr is suggested by the recent ggem operational runs. the most recent gfs is got an unlikely ri tc in the eastern caribbean's canonical 'dead zone' ... either way, activity matches the anticipation laid out by the mjo desk

it's liable to either snow, or be an atmosphere that supports snow in october at some point

582 hgts too have seen sfc t in the mid 90s at those 500 mb hgts, but because they happen to be associated with cyclonic curvature in that case (next week) the models 'get' to go cool happy lol

summer telecon ftl i suppose. the blend of the various modes argues for a warm setting over eastern mid latitudes of n/a more so than we've been seeing this "cool shot" was an aberration too. relative to those indicators. i guess we got to get lucky sometimes too

51

mmm i'm willing to add that a dearth of viable tw may be related. the identities of them over the intracontinental african region have been weakly looking to me, and the ejects off the typical sierra leone traffic routes have been down in numbers.

"big heat" climo's in pretty steep decline/return rate, anyway. By that we mean a T of at least 95 F I've personally observed that only two or three times by September 7, which is under three weeks from now - little perspective. we could still get some impressive HI's, though. 80s with TDs to 70 isn't too exotic. having said that... this cc -related aspect may modulate some. we could set up a marginal heat look and then get a synergistic goose. but even if so, we are losing sun power

Looks like the 18z GFS tried to go back warm

aside from the fact that if it's like today, in novie, the winter constituency's on suicide watch. it was 72 for a high today - exactly where I said it would be this morning ( shameless ha!). it's 'a little' below normal... sure. but not out of control. hate to play this tired card again, but we're suffering some acclimation loading here -

oh we had a low-grade heat wave sounding in place the whole way. no question some extraneous factors blunted potential there.

just a psycho babble hot take but what's really going on is that a handful ( more or less ...) of regular users ( of this drug haha) covet loathing summer, and only struggle to maintain acceptance. but they're like "spring loaded". at the first sign of anything that doesn't resemble it, it's all safe to come out now - it's gone