Typhoon Tip

I've opined in the past that data assimilation has (apparently) significantly improved enough over previous generation(s) of the technology that we don't typically get substantive correction once Pac impulses relay into the denser objective sounding grid ... but, it is what is ... if this sudden increased trough mechanics goes on to be real, it would seem that is most culpable.

I noticed the NAM morphed the trough into a subtle but perhaps crucially more negative tilt/conserved strength, too, when comparing the prior 00z to this 06z. The 12z's rollin' in now.

Actually ... I didn't think to check this until after I posted that. This sudden increase in trough mechanics the GFS trended over the last two consecutive runs 'MIGHT' be a data-assimilation related correction going on?

I’m suspicious the GFS is too zealous with the total wave space potency. I know folks are clambering for excitement/anything to break the monotony as of late so we have our fun with the GFS run… But both the GGEM and Euro also being inside 96 hrs and coming in subdued gives me a little pause. Really what I am seeing in the very recent GFS trough mechanics is the S arc of the L/W is suddenly large compared to the prior runs and it’s not abundantly clear where the GFS gets that oomph/negative tilting thing from. If it goes down that way it’ll be interesting to science why/where that was missed until suddenly these last two runs. Before those… The actual conversion to more of this, a strong, cold front actually made sense for the compression of the field and a fast flow and all that. Interesting.

I think you mean “ram us in the bum” btw …. “Oh the weather outside is frightful”

He's a great author of that sort of write. I think he has others; shame on me for not owning any. If anyone is interested, try "Isaac's Storm" - Erik Larson. Fantastic read

Yeah, that much negative departure N/NNE of HA is dead ringer for a +PNA. The flow shape is certainly sending the +PNAP response, but it's weird having the nadir in the east still relatively mild like that. I wonder if the speed of the flow is stretching the wave signature.. That looks like an unstable variation

I wonder if that list were extended back to 1950 ... I bet if anything there's been more since 1990.

It may be sooner ... It's a developing state ( so we'll see - ) but as I described ( bothered to analyze ) this morning, there's a burgeoning +PNA signal between D6 and D10. This 12z ens means'll be interesting in that regard.

Yeah ..I'm aware I was also looking at the GFS' pressure coordinate temperature progs as a basic metric this morning and it's not clear in that product if there is in fact that type of stratospheric intrusion taking place that leads to the down welling . But ... in deference to other's data sourcing and so forth I didn't mention it. The full manifold of data sources from the American side looks rather climo to me so far. We'll see. If one bothers to look at the domain going back to 1979 monitoring, ... warm perturbations occur far more frequently than an actual warm burst that goes on to down well and actually forces the AO domain.

The basic zonal temp anomaly provided by shows a thermal intrusion taking place at this time. As Chuck hinted, SSW have a time lag correlation. This is ( or should be ) known. The correlation is between 20 and 30 days prior to AO response. Also, SSW can come, register a -AO response, and it meant nothing. Folks should also be aware, there are other planetary aspects that can modulate/interfere with how a -AO contributes to mid level pattern, and/or temperature anomaly distribution - 'where' being paramount. SSW do not always = what one may think. Also ... a warm intrusion may not be propagating downward. That's an important distinction in the subsequent correlation. Many of the SSW in the data set ( from the same source) show that there was a cyclic presentation of a warm node prior to the main flux, that latter being what then down-wells in the system. That down welling takes a couple of weeks to suspend through the domain depths toward the tropospause - at around the point in which that takes place is when the PV pancakes and bifurcates, which is the -AO response.

This has been going on since September per my own observation. Feels like this has been a windless autumn.

Fwiw - https://phys.org/news/2023-12-three-day-exceptional-china-linked-human-induced.html

mm, we have to be careful there. That increase is not linear when it is 2% per degree - I assume they mean C but not sure. Doesn't matter in arithmetic. 2% of 200kts may result 204kts, but ... 2% of 204 is 208.08. Firstly, the forcing may not be trivially impacting, despite seemingly so. When we get into the "grander machinery" of the atmosphere, smaller decimals can mean bigger variance at smaller scales than we may expect - not just how storms behave, but then naturally in the metrical climate observations. Kinda like why a .1% increase from a mammoth sun may have such a dramatic impact on temperatures on Earth ( see Milankovitch Cycles ..etc) ...

LOL, right - a "back log" hypothesis.

Yup...just wrote about that to 'Wiz ... there's a time dependency there ( imho -) .. It won't offset until the poles warm further. Cross thresholds (what's new -) and then we go the other way. But man - just intuitively... humans, and a lot of species, won't be around to see that because what it would take to get the global gradient into a state of normalization like that? Isn't that like a Venetian state..

Yeeeah, I've thought of this, too... I suspect there is a longer time dependency in the gradient argument helps figure that out? See ... the poles are warming faster than the equators. Truth. But why? -cthe idea being it's easier to add energy by way of terminating planetary waves into higher latitudes ( extinguishing WAA), along with other factors like open seas --> black body absorption feed-backs, etc, than it is to raise a very high DP equatorial girdle when the solar contribution is for all intents and purposes a constant. Around the equator, change is happening at the rate of atmospheric chemistry change; inherently slower to the poles where are susceptible to multiple factors - In simple terms ...after some 10(s) or a 100(s) of years ( sooner or later...) the polar regions will have warmed to where the gradient does begin to reduce as the gap closes. In the meantime, the gradient has been increased. It's a matter of comparing rates of changes between the Equatorial factors wrt those of the Polar regions.

Yeah, I edited that post to add a paragraph ... more thoughts along this way. Part of me also thinks that there could be more events ( 'smeared') that are vestigial events that are so stressed that they don't really qualify as what we consider to a "storm"? There may be 'interpretation boundaries' to this, too. In other words, not really few storms.. just a wider gap between ferocity and pedestrian profiles.

'Unmanned ensemble hose'

Here ya go, Ray - ...at least someone else corroborates my last 12 years https://phys.org/news/2023-12-jet-stream-faster-climate.html "...Though the findings are robust, more research will have to be done to predict exactly how these faster winds will impact individual storms and severe weather occurrence..." I would argue that cyclone morphology is one of those that will emerge out of that study ( for the upteenth time). Sorry to be a dick but I have been yelling about this for a long time. But also in a practical application, the modeling behaviors that we have noted as seemingly idiosyncratic, may actually be more predictive than noise -related error, too.

Forgive me, economics isn't my bag. I get the stressed domestic production - due to CC. Intuitive enough. I guess I was thinking along the lines of, 'the value of the dollar drops while printing more money' as inflation - which really is more of a secondary response ( and really bad approach) to dwindling resources. I can see how as GDP stressing gets worse, prices go up - that's academic. I think it's what happens as reactionary policies that is the problem. Ex, the Germans were hung out to dry and left pretty destitute prior to WWII. Political identity was in crisis. GDP didn't really exist. Inflation there resulted, which led to the bad idea of printing more money. There's a lot of geopolitical/geodesic math between that and Hitler's decision to annex Poland ..etc ... but in principle, their society was left in a flight or fight pathway by a destitution both economically, then triggered further by that political identity crisis after WWI. Evil loves that vulnerability. Ex II, Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan (their "Vietnam"). The U.S. abandoned their supplies to the region when that happen - bop ahead 10 or 20 years and in waltzes the Taliban. I mean humans do this ... but I'm digressing. What I'm getting at is you can see the seeds of global conflict. Interesting.

What's interesting about that is between 144 and 200 hours there are discerned height falls N/NE of Hawaii. Prior runs had that, however, it appeared to be more a function of wave space passing through - this is both that, and actually deepening. There's adding -d(hgt). Anyway that's usually indicative of a rising PNA. Minus there, then couples to positive response over the western continent. So, I went over and checked the numerical index. Base upon the 00z suite, both the EPS and GEFs rise from -1 SD, tomorrows local nadir, to +1.5 by the 15th. Moving that particular index a total +2SD isn't always trivial. Actually, going back three cycles the index had been trending more positive over successive runs, from all three, EPS/GEFS/GEPS. Yet despite these changes, we're not seeing 'restoring' event triggered (yet) downstream east of 100W over the continent. I might suggest that if the above trend were to continue, and add yet more -d(hgt), there could be more +d(hgt) added to the west ... and then things change

There’s a lot here. I’m not sure what the circuitry is between climate and inflation .. but, re big losses? that’s going to happening regardless. The global industrial population is so large that if 90% adopted green renewable there’d be enough population left still operating in non-compliance to push over thresholds. This recent temperature spiked phenomenon…? This should really actually be a wake up call. It seems to be, but I don’t think people really realize what that means in terms of where this thing could be even 20 years from now. Anyway … good luck getting even half of 90% before it’s too late… (I’m not being heavy-handed at you per se lol I’m just sayin’)

Yeah … the brow raised once the, “these soundings” scrolled …

I suspect the bigger wind threat from that frontal ordeal's really going to be more so convection dependent. Could see a ribbon squall with some wild rad tags tripping warnings... General 35 to maybe 40 mph gusts out ahead go W on that squall wedge with a turbine gusting along with sheets of blinding rain for 5 minutes while it side-winders through the area. This type of frontal nature, with deep warm dp transport out ahead of that kind of squal/cold frontal combo ...I've seen this probably half the Nov and Dec I've lived on the planet.