Typhoon Tip

We have a brook like that running not more than 100 meters from my house ... In late August after a dry summer - like last year - it has stretches that are stenchy mud and stained rocks with flies buzzing around. But in March 2010 we received 15" of rain that month and it was level with the bridge which is about 10 foot over the creek bed. I've lived in this house/town a lot longer than I ever intended to ... but spanning the 12 years I have, I've seen it only once that high associated with that March flood. A little farther down stream it was over one of the main roads into the center of the town which had to be temporarily shut down. Here's an interesting aspect ... About 9 years ago the town charted some geologist to dig sample wells, and they drilled pipe sized hole through the street out in front of my house, and then down another 90 foot. The effort was a remediation/assessment for Arsenic contamination off Deven's military landfill - now defunct for many years, but a gift that keeps on leachin' ... Anyway, I wondered over and made conversation with one of them as a fellow earth sciences major... She was telling me that they went down 90 feet and the whole distance, all they plumbed out was effluvium - the type of sandy soot you get from floods. That means... every oh ...700 years of something some kind of a bible flood fills this entire area deep enough to deposit a new stratum of sentiment. That's what she said, anyway. I don't think it's that. I suspect that it does that during glacial retreat... where dammed water can create transient lakes...

Call the cops - they’ll respond. Pretty sure there is noise ordinances before 8 am in most towns. It might be 7 … But make it clear

Somewhere between hints at a phase change in the GLAAM, ...seasonal expansion of the HC, which is clearly identifiable in the polar stereographic layout of the geopotential medium, and these indexes flirting with a positive AO/-PNA tandem telecon, exists a potential to balloon a substantive heat ridge over the mid latitude continent latter in the month. Not saying it will happen, but having those three aspects in play is intriguing for heat. But for the time being the operational runs keep placing a SPV N of Superior in the latter mid range, while still hosting 582 dm hgts from ORD-BOS. Fast flow MCC's ? ... The 850 mb thermal layout is +15C while that excessive gradient ( particularly for summer) attempts to anchor down. Not sure I'm buying the depth of SPV behavior in those runs, anyway. Both the Euro and GFS are guilty of over lowering for different reasons, in the D6 -14 range. The Euro tends to "wash" perturbation out of the field at D4+, which results in a single events being free to go bonkers, while the GFS tends to cumulatively aggregate cold hgts on the N side of the ambient westerlies. It's ends up gradient rich in that range much of the time, regardless whatever else is going on...

DPs are an interesting forecasting trickiness for nerds Tue/Wed... Not sure I see where the GFS drying is coming from. This is a weak, albeit negatively tilted mid level beta-synoptic scaled thing working over a PWAT anomaly. There's no real defined CAA/WAA cross-sectional analysis there. Seems it should go from wet to muggy when the sun comes out. I like the Euro DPs more for Wednesday, but it's temperatures seem too low for 900 mb T of 17C and a modest d-slope trajectory. Man ... just a wonderful week for anyone on the spectrum, heh -

88/73 ... this is brutal. To me anyway. man. HI based on DP on the charts gives this as 97

I noticed that, too Not that it matters a whole helluva lot of difference defining the following, but I'm not sure it's WAR exerting as much as an aspect emerging out of changes taking place over the hemisphere/planetary scales. The pattern evolution can cause west Atlantic ridging to formulate and retro and all the happy torrid stuff. But, in this case I'm not sure we're seeing those markers preceding. It's complex but it looks like the models are "allowing" the expansion more because the GLAAM is flipping signs (global atmospheric angular momentum) AAM isn't a forcing mechanism onto itself, it is a measurment - but it's useful because -GLAAM correlates with blocking, and +GLAAM with longitudinal flow structures. This latter lends to advance, N, of the westerlies in the means, and the expansion of STR nodes - typically those that are canonical to summer. WAR is one of those... There are no calculation/products ( that I'm aware) that directly project the AAM based up guidance inputs ( it would be neat if that were done ), but it can be strongly inferred by combinations of atmospheric indices. In this case, the AO is rising with concerted membership in the GEFs, showing minimal spread at D10+ ( which is tough to do in the summer, when the individual members tend to wonder out in time). So you end up with a stable looking index about +.5 SD. Very recently, the MJO is strengthening in RMM around STR correlative phase 5 .. which is also correlated with AO. It's "teleconnector covergence" that spans much bigger than just a local hemisphere, which can produce a WAR or WAR-like ridge response in its own rights. It's not hurting that the PNA is diving and will nadir this week, only to limp a recovery into week 2. In essence, STRs may be expanding everywhere. It is noted that the ECMWF is not as emphatic about these changes, but ... full disclosure, I'm not sure ( personally) that matters as much as it used to.

Yeah bold ^ is the summary. But I think the reasons I mentioned regarding CC and model errors ... It is what is -

It's like we have two moving sets of goal posts in forecasting - both plausibly erring or succeeding independent of one another. #1 The models tend to over produce ... #2 The outcome tends to over-achieve ... Those may sound the same but are entirely different. It's less likely that much will result .. but some smaller insets between NNE and NYC will train and mudslide and fill basements and washout roads. In the case of #1 ... the model(s) does/do go ahead and verify - "tend" does not mean always. In the cast of #2 ... where it rains, it will tend to do so with unexpected local overtop results. There are two aspect in play, sub-dividing this category. One ... CC is absolutely effecting rain rates world over and that is non-controvertible empirical fact. But that comes with increased frequency in "synergistic results" - seeming outperforming the input mertrics. The other aspect is just related to the high DPs in the area, and is more functional.

I wonder if our sun's gonna set at 7pm behind that anvil wall over Albany... still, hot, dimmed early evening.

Definitive DP sink bounded (~) by Boston-Willamantic- ...basically just interior SNE, which makes this region a dry outlier from that image above.

I'm willing to hunch there's a flux anomaly, too ( seasonal )

They may be Lantern Flies ... ? They are an invasive moth-like ( or outright moth) species that made some press for being pervasive in the M/A to as far N as NYC either last summer or the summer before. Here's a photo ... Not saying this is what you got, but the description 'kind of' sounds like this

I cannot help but feel a semblance of ownership violation ... I started talking about this years and years ago - primarily on social media so ... cheers. But in reality ... these "discoveries" or connections or whatever are seldom coming from a single revolutionary voice - they only seem to. You know? - like fire became an instrument to humanity at the same time, all over the planet. Point being, this connection was was likely going to happen simultaneously.

Perhaps - You know? there's a real-time, existential aspect about this presently that I find really interesting. We are at the top edge, perhaps witnessing global warming in the moment. Normally,the state of a planetary day is one beneath that edge at any given time. We are reading about when x-y-z record occurred in the past ... how then the global mean rose(fell). Perhaps this is perfect timing, emerging a synergistic feedback from two forces that are causing a short term ( we hope) acceleration at an entire planetary scale. I mean, we're not talking about quadrature, this is whole world in the midst of a gaudy spark ... truly instantaneous in geological time scales. I've often mused in here in the past, and elsewhere ... the biggest problem with humanity's acceptance ( though that's changing, finally - still not fast enough) was always the abstracted nature of climate change. It simply doesn't directly appeal to the physical senses. If you tell a person to move off the train track because you happen to know a train is coming around the bend very soon, the person doesn't react to move off the track. No. They first hesitate to observe the approaching locomotive - then, they might move depending upon the result of confirmation. However, obviously if they are warned to move off the track while the train is clearly visible and is audibly unmistakable, they don't wait to gather in their senses in the matter they move f- off with certain haste. Humanity is like that with climate change. We're in this ominous period of looking around and listening, trying observe a phenomenon that only until quite recently ... was utterly unknowable beyond climate statisticians and advanced predictive modeling ..etc. This whole 'denial' - more like apprehension to belief - phenomenon is perhaps more a biological/evolutionary issue than it really is about denying. Denying is/was always temporary, ... while "slow response to threat mechanics in large groups" plays out, and is just a manifestation of a very intriguing hypothesis *(to me) The advent in human evolution for ingenuity and "math," outpaced the human evolution for how it is our biology samples reality.

Oh, you meant 72 hrs/Monday... sorry Scott I thought you guys were talking about the generality later next week. woke up with a headache this morning -

don't be surprise if the whole thing evolves into a second installment of Bahama Blue circulation type, too

Couple deg cooler T tomorrow but a couple deg warm DP 94/72 was the max here in Ayer … typical garden DP padding … most NWS sites were bouncing between 69 and 71. 90/74 tomorrow

I wouldn't trust the spatial layout so much ... Have to keep in mind ... especially beyond D7's ...the noise of 31 members or more tends to artifact that flow into a perennial layout, which features a modest ridge in the west and a flattish trough in the east - as a basal state. Throw in July's thermal component and that "tugs" ( for lack of better word) the member-mean too far west. But, by the time the D10 to 13 is say, D5 and we still end up with occasional ridge nodes neat St Louis, as well as sometimes WAR's for a reason. The noise masks the individual members that would have been right about heat expulsion east - cast in point, this 12z operational "member" at 300 hours ...bullshit by virtue of range, but it's definitely decoupled from the GEFs mean noise

Boston Light's up to 70 F ... S.C. buoys also near +- 70 F SST. That's a fast recovery in the past 2 weeks, right ? I could have swore we were held up in the low 60s

I don't pay as close attention to the temp idiosyncrasies wrt the NWS sites as you folk but it seems to me just over the years in general, that site has difficulty getting to 90 anyway. I mean not impossible, just that the 1000k/sigma elevation takes the 50 mb slope off the bottom of the sounding. I bet down town by the convention center it's over 90

I just think society et al doesn't take "heat" seriously. I mean it's gotta be buffalo balls hot before they even consider, while it's the number 1 killer of all direct weather threat categories. But particularly in this day and age ( otherwise known as 'end times' ) when this shit's statistically growing mortality ... I mean we're writing paragraphs about negative CAPE that kinda sort maybe has enough power to burst a severe gust when the real pervasive threat is all around. I think it's kind of condensed version of why CC takes so long for general civility to start reacting to it. Heat is invisible.. .humans, for all their conceits, are not much greater in evolution than the capability of 'monkey see monkey do' - if we can't see it ( same vein) we're not taking it seriously.

I think there should have been at minimum a heat advisory issued. This was clearly going to be like this, and yesterday snuck HI's to/over the 95 threshold, too - not sure I'm with NWS on this one.

right ... cuz brain amoebas'll put us out of our misery -

After having sampled the sear on a stroll down to the end of the street and back ... the rapidity of the sweat bead materialization, along with the appeal of that blue flaming sky through which penetrates a relentless sun ... ( yet, not a single f'n zephyr to be found), I can honestly say I have to go back to June of 2021 to match this is pig's ass appeal. 93/72

90/72 averaging home sites within a mile of my location. HI presently = 98 FIT's 88/68 ... Most NWS sites are 86 or 88 as of last hr using MesoW but that resource hasn't been doing the 5 minute intervals lately - unless they've changed the interface unknowing to me ...which is possible. Anyway, otherwise, the 10:50's 'll be out soon. -- actually it is showing the 5 m intervals now. wasn't yesterday My guess is FIT will be 90/67 or 91/67 ..they tend to be pretty close to my numbers. Hot day