Typhoon Tip

Helluva WAR signal on this 12z GFS operational version... not much support

It’s becoming easier to assume the sociopathic divorce of ethics … when toward indifference is the notion of responsibility to future generations … I’ve heard it leaked in the past “… I’ll be dead and gone …” so it doesn’t matter and there’s no guilt or moral ownership, then ? One coveting this sentiment … wholly absolved in self … knows it is morally wrong - perhaps some in this detached group don’t get the connection … sure. Either way the suppressed/truer motive of not being empathetic to the notion of extinction merely because it makes no difference or existential threat to them and their life time is patently a sociopathic doctrine

Something like this … yeah you know, I keep coming back to this whacky notion that just maybe we’ve got it sort of backwards. El Niños and La Ninas are actually a mechanism that corrects the planetary mode. has to do with harmonic feedbacks. Like the ocean responds to an atmospheric triggering influence, then that adds back to the atmosphere … It builds up until it the atmosphere sort of “trips over itself” The new paradigm abandons/severely decouples so much from the previous state the ocean begins to cool - lost sea wind/ONI relationship. The new paradigm is La Niña … new cycle is born. I always figured this for hypotheses… But, somebody posted something a while ago when I proffer this idea earlier in the spring …saying the idea matches some previous scientific research into the matter/papered work, so it may already be on the drafting table.

Yeah, Scott ... I've often sensed that the hemisphere starts acting like it's related to the ensuing ENSO states - not the other way around. Hense the whiplash heat events, air and sea, ... like the hot house took off prior to the tropical Pac oceanic registry ? yup ...just an example...

Word! ... buuuut, unfortunately, there's ad infinitum that exists between the A ≠ B at one end, and the A = B at the other. Here, I'll explain - ha! gotcha

Wheres the 'canes? they're never there when it seems easy-

It's just going back to the same persistence ... ..it's really a lot like we are really riding through a 'relaxation' in said pattern. The GFS has been mistaking the reload as a WAR expression, but by the time the 9th or so rolls around ...that's likely to have devolved into that previous dynamics. Maybe even a Bahama Blue or variant thereof. The indexes don't support a WAR circulation mode. Never did... Despite the spatial layout/synopsis of the ensemble means in that D7 to 15 range, the actual computational analysis ( teleconnectors) have a cold signal if anything. -AO/-NAO/+PNA by mid month. I'm willing to lean some on the low frequency state of the summer hemisphere, and allow that to "maybe" mean the +PNA won't mean the same thing now as it does in November - duh. I think BB pattern isn't a terrible compromise between seasonality and that particular index spread.

IF A ≠ B ... weather happens (ie, gradient is the difference between A and B ) IF A = B ... nothin happens. That simple.

yeah... I've been willing to sell the WAR notion to be frank, but not entirely. I still think it's more likely it devolves to a Bahama Blue circulation mode. Either that or a red herring and we just end up back in a general dented Ontario westerlies. Maybe we sneak a ribbon of heat out along the underbelly of this latter version..but I lean more BB humidity as opposed to WAR enveloped eastern continent and heat from that type. we'll see. I don't think this summer's letting us out of the +PNA mode though. Why? who the hell knows, but it's been relaying into different forms .. never abating. Probably does finally do so on November 18th - February 24th

So much for the WAR signal

That wasn’t right though… If anything, it got more amplified and didn’t dislodge anything over eastern Canada. That’s why we are on the polar side of the jet as it dipped below us.

I suggest the peppeRONI studies are as important to this discussion as it is to culinary science...

There were a lot of heat aspects, air and sea, world over that were idiosyncratic like that this spring and summer. Worrisome... the notion that they are (thus) also not really fitting a predictive model, or able to be projected because of their emergent properties, should reverberate an uneasiness. I have written of "synergistic heat waves" as an increasing frequency of occurrence ... They are a new distinction in the global warming empirical results "catalogue," but I it's not just heat, per se. The weird inability in Antarctica to regenerate ice at failed climatological amount that's multiples of the erstwhile established -trend, occurring in a single season! To the Labrador marine heat burst ... This stuff down in Florida... And the March heat explosion over China. It's the lack of predictive skill prior to these short duration phenomenon that really should have folks spooked - more so than the scalar itself, as remarkable as the numbers are to talk about.

It does... In fact, the average high for Boston ( sort of a pos site to use but whatever..) on Sep 15 is 74 I am at 76 at the moment. Makes sense because "average" during this acceleration of CC is probably always going to be the 30 years + either decimals or a whole degree(s) when factoring in the logarithm. So what I'm musing here is that it's like 'exactly' mid september preview. heh

81 here ... probably not too far from the average high up here N of Rt 2 in Mass for July 31. FIT is 81, too. DP is in the Chamber range at 55 ... I suspect our "cooler than normal" aspect may be more so in the dew point temperatures than the kinetic side. It's interesting that we are in a cool pattern now and have plummeted to a smug win when we're "normal" haha.

"This is particularly unusual for a summer month. Historically we’ve had a lot more temperature variability in winter months and set new record anomalies in December, January, or February. Seeing this large a record in July is stunning." Yeah he's right. It's always "easier" - for lack of better word - to move an anomaly up in winter, than it is to move an anomaly up in summer. This might be counter intuitive for some, but it's simply an artifact of thermodynamics and heat budgeting, combined. In the winter, when the average high in SNE nadirs around 32 F ... you can find a synoptic way to 72... or even higher. Such as was the case in a few Febs and Mar in the last 10 years. 30 to even 45 or more deg higher than the average in those scenarios. But, an average high of 82 max seasonal average in July is not going find a synoptic means at Boston to put up a 122. Not without the shining two concurrent suns ... so to speak ... A similar reason to why the ballast of NE U.S. warming in this hockey-stick CC curve over recent decades has been observed in the winter-time nocturnal lows.

you actually have CBs rollen over the ridge lines though - "little" more than just oreographic. Probably some vaguely described impulse adding some.

It seems like we are either going to get a February 2015 (albeit rare) or stressed if not no winter at all… We’re not really getting much in between. I mean we do there’s been a couple big storms here in there obviously… As usual, I’m talking about “friend” trend, and it hasn’t been very friendly.

I always just liked observing interesting Meteorological events. Let's be clear, interesting includes the 'dramatic.' I just am not in wait and/or limited to the specter value, entirely. Observing them in California through media or anecdote was always just okay. Physical relevancy between Buffalo and Halifax was preferable. How that has changed over the years is that when I was a younger, I would tend to sullen if the "interesting event" violated the sanctity of the season hosting. I didn't want record breaking warmth in winters ... nor cold in summers. These were the only reasons I would turn off The Weather Channel. I couldn't bear it. Worst yet, where I tended to sullen ... I more demonstratively groused if Walter Drag set us up for one of his patented 1987 cryo dystopian horror-casts, only to awaken to dim sun and flurries in 12 F 35 mph, may-as-well-have-been frontal nudity winds, while walking to a school that never should have been. That stuff really doesn't bother me so much anymore. Although, I have maintained a particular despise for any span of winter whence the cold gets thick, yet there's an interminable absence of any activity. I guess while on the subject ... there are two types of weather that get me dreaming about that 2nd home abroad. That, and the endless days of 39 F still fog/strata/rains in Aprils... In fact, let's go ahead and elect out of that entire month? Everything important that has ever happened in either human or non-human history, it's all particularly loathsome just because "April" was a part of them, say. Man, if we could ever choose anything, avoiding captive audience to the month a Asshole would set us right. You know how Samuel Clemens once famously mused, "...The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Fransisco" ? I can easily imagine somewhere out there, some fist to sky then furiously types their own ideologues about personal climate tragedy of Bay Area summers, much in same vein as I do springs east of the Hudson now. I just don't have quite clever enough turn of phrase at the moment to pen a Twainer about this ... Maybe the very best New England spring I ever experienced was an April on Mars. ... Sorry if I'm being vague about my real feelings in the matter... Either those two scenarios if I were god ... unending numbing winter cold with no activity; April in New England. If I could just learn to zen, to separate my psyche from expectations whence in the midst of either of those prison terms, I will have at last achieved Nirvana as a true appreciator of weather's artistry. Alas, although I have come a long way, I don't think I will ever find peace with either of those scenarios - maybe the cold banality of a stormless winter has the best shot of forgiveness. As to the original point, I no longer am constraining fascination to some sort of seasonal expectation framework - have found it in snow in May, and 80 in February, two scenarios that have actually been increasing in frequency ... right in the same path of history with my having changed my perspective on matters. That's pretty fantastically lucky - or unlucky depending on one's responsible perspective.

It should be an even bigger red flag to any and everyone that the climate is warmer in 2023 than it has been since humanity invented thermometry

It's 80 here now... 79 next door at FIT, over MOS by a couple clicks

Yeeeah, I thought I was being tongue-in-cheek when I said that? Implicitly I was ranting over a few posts at the time, commenting really on the GFS' eagerness to push that idea... I will say though...if we don't stop with this persistence return/base state ridge over the PAC NW, ... the odds of getting siggy heat really will drop earlier than climatology. I mean ...summer's back breaking is obviously just a euphemism - less any means to really quantify what that means .. . My subjective take on that is, the back is broken when probability becomes/ or overwhelmingly would seem, to have fallen out of contention. I would not say we are there by any stretch... but if we keep it up to Aug 15... yeah okay

Yeah, I’ve been wondering that myself…

A lot of this stuff has limited push into the glaciation level. I've been watching these towers off and on all day, and they tend to cap at the alto stratas level ... then fail to penetrate their pileus. Some did glaciate, but most of the mass of the cumulonimbi mass was below below. You need to have the phase transition in the glaciation level with sufficient mass - it's something I've noticed over the years. Denser cumuli form plumes in that level get your thunder. It may yet along this line..

- the WWB model would seem more intuitively entering a negative mode with the +walker circulation - the latter evidenced by the activation of the west Pacific's MDR. I think the American sources have been a bit aggressive with ONI/SOI perturbations anyway. I'm not sure we see one of those 'real' bursts until we're actually in one. It's like fool me once, you know