Typhoon Tip

Hasn't all this awe in modern material science figured out how to engineer skis designed for dirt and pebbles yet? Then we can bun-out over skiing at all times of the year, and we don't have worry about a future when even the median altitude of sky country falls rainy victim to you-know-what

I've always a reserved a bit of curiosity as to how exactly those seasonal outlooks are framed/initialized, and then run. I don't think they are merely the ensemble means and or operational version ... cut loose for 1,800 hours ... Come back in the next morning, set coffee down, enter UN/PW and open the in-house API that renders the output to U/I in order to dopamine what has to be the biggest bun and weinerschnitzel job that's ever existed in the dragon realm of dweebdom: getting paid to do that. Or maybe that's all it is... Let the models just run for several hours and see what they come up with. But, I cannot help but suspect they are conditioning the input parameters and perturbing the general physics around some other longer/fuller integrated stuff. So .. whatever runs is more adulterated with theoretical aspects, ultimately less organic. Which then the cynic and perhaps even arrogance to my own hypothesis kick in and I get annoyed. LOL Seriously though, I just wonder if that is a ENSO by-product causing that mid latitude girdle of lower geopotential heights. The other aspect that sticks out to me is that the warm heights dominate the whole globe. If it weren't for that ring around the PV look ... there would be very little offsetting negative regions. That's what really sticks out to me, not the 'avenue to still get our entertaining winter' ... I digress. Anyway, are we to also suppose the PV warm heights to mean -AO ... ? Lot of opportunity for experimentation this year. The ENSOs may be quieted by CC/warming the ambient mid latitudes - then absorbing that forcing ( some...). There is also a correlation with the Phase 7,8,1,2 of the MJO ... with the -AO ( lags notwithstanding). Should these also falter? It seems the circuitry in these index relationships may be getting stretched if not cut at times. If that is so, this product suite above might have the right idea 30 years ago ... oops. Then we can get into the over active Solar storm year preceding - that's correlated to +AO actually... It just comes back to 'how is this model constructed.' It'll be interesting to see how all these correlations perform this year.

While not at the latitude of York Beach, I was at Jennes Beach/Rye NH two weekends ago, and the water was 72. As we bounced around in the surf, ever so occasionally a waft of chillier water would graze your feet, indicative no doubt of the thin nature of the surface warmth. We had just spent some three or more weeks with persistent SSW to SSE surface wind exchanges. I knew when that cold front a week ago Friday came through, it was the first one to successfully unseat the DP rich air... And instead of the winds going torpid ...only to resume a S/SSW motion later the next afternoon, that warm SST N of Cape Ann was going to be no match for three days of light NW flow and DPs crashing from 74 to 50. By early last week it was already low to mid 60s near shore buoys. Bye-bye warm water. On an indirectly related not... That entire Labrador marine heat wave event that occurred this late spring and early summer was most likely more about an atmospheric anomaly that persisted these SSE trades from the M/A all the way up to NF ...doing so for an extended period of time. Speculation -

...and yet the advertised ridging never has... I don't see any compelling reason why any kind of DP this or heat that is likelier than just having the extended range guidance continue to correct right back to this pot hole in the flow over eastern N/A - whence aging those time ranges into nearer intervals. We'll see - I'm not predicting failure here... I'm just sort of taking the persistence road for the time being. Because we've seen pattern changes, big DPs, be it ridging delivering higher heat after D10, for the last 20 days ... Yet as of this morning it is still after D10.

Not sure how we can differentiate "non-zero" from "looks pretty meh" LOL. ...I mean think about it, meh typically means unimpressed, but unimpressed doesn't in and of itself mean there is no chance at all. God I love being annoying No but it's weird. The atmosphere is situating the traditional surface features more late Monday/evening, but it looks better for mid level evolution during Tuesday morning.

https://phys.org/news/2023-08-world-oceans-surface-temperature-eu.html ... you guys can go ahead and squabble about the validity of the above content from which ever perspective and/or narrative that is either conveniently(inconveniently) affected by what it is saying ... ( LOL )... I don't care, but when I read this statement, which I've read/heard countless times from other sources ... "Oceans have absorbed 90 percent of the excess heat produced by human activity since the dawn of the industrial age, according to scientists." I hear this snarky internal voice ask, ' when is the ocean going to give it back' umm

As far as New England ... I've been probably the loudest proponent of LESS ENSO reliance ( in general) from the NP-GL-NE region (particularly the latter two) for years in fact. The proximity of those regions to the intraseasonal polar index variability (EPO/AO/NAO arc) too often supplants the pure Pacific model. Those regions may correlate to ENSOs more arguably so through indirection (i.e, lower correlation coefficients ) ... which gets rather muddled. Different discussion...

I am not considering my region in the discussion. I've never written a focus in that regard, certainly not as any of this pertains to temperature and precipitation correlations and all that jazz. You are assuming that I am? ...incorrect. No interest. Never have. I am speaking about the planetary system as whole, and that these ENSO regimes are becoming less forcing on the hemispheric patterns. That's it, nothing else. I leave it up to those that fancy a skill for/in quadrature, to hopefully include that in a rational prediction. You will not see it written by me, anywhere, where the cold and/or temperature departures are anticipating based upon ENSO. I merely advise - what was once pure speculation and I made that clear, but has since being scienced in the field/ambit in general.

The ENSO states are being increasingly cut off - expressed via the upward frequency of empirically observed decoupled hemispheres. RONI expresses that … which immediately, logic dictates reliance on the predictive states of the ENSO in the evolution of seasonal forecasting, cannot be as readily inferred nor assumed as useful.

It’s been a recurring theme this summer … quite often actually… Cloud ban sets up between 9 AM and 1 PM - just perfectly wrong really.

Not to be dick but my original assessment this morning stands as far as I'm concerned. A Met looks out the window, confirms the scunge sky on satellite, threw hands. He was right. I've lived around SNE for 35 years ...I've seen almost no severe days that I can really recall that were ass packed by spooge clouds all day. I think June 1997 did ...but that was a pig synoptically force S/W scenario, which this "taint" However, ...there are still lapse rates in the area and as the cold front limps into the region later this evening, there may be some lesser activity associated closer to that forcing. We just didn't generate any SB CAPE. Everywhere you see slow moving red nuggets on radar, there was at least some partial sun within reach of the updrafts

Just watched a cluster out along Rt 2 ... die as it attempted to move across this region that's been utterly overcast the whole day. I'm not fully convinced that cloud coverage isn't factoring here -

If we want to get into shearing mechanics due to upstream x-y-b-c than that's another discipline of the TC manifold. But I'm just speaking in terms of the thermodynamics -

No one asked me but I was never convinced that CC meant a future of 5 swarms. I remember arguing this back in Eastern some 15 years go I don't have a problem with goosing some systems here and there, due to having higher oceanic heat content in the couple storm engine and all that.. But, if the surrounding atmosphere warms along with the ocean, that may change the ambient sounding toward warmer - hello. Gradient ... it keeps killing all narratives. If the atm warms than the differentials don't change, and the storms remain the same. Crude way to explain but just to get the point across - Here's some qualification. Where ever the oceanic heat content is above normal, and the vertical sounding ( tropical in structure) is lagged, that is whence the storm will benefit from large sea to ambient air differentials. If not, big ocean temp doesn't matter.

Heh ...was just reading that watch text. Man, can you imagine if Tolland got 70 mph winds and 1.5" d hail? we'd never hear the end of it, exaggeration that would live on in infamy

It's certainly true that deltas can offset the CAPE starvation

Gunk failure

Tend to bias my opinion on a heavier, spicier RONI application. Personally like the study and suspect it is on point; it's just probably not inclusive enough for not yet knowing what all the offset factors really are. Given that there are 2ndary/...tertiary emergent feedback involved in the ongoing shenanigans of the total planetary integration - give the study time. I'm not saying that we're headed for an “El Sin Sentido" ... just that I suspect RONIism is an evolving/ fluid aspect that probably is also a changing with +delta year to subsequent year. As the Earth warms and the HC integration with the rest of the westerlies ...and even the Ferril latitude trades are effected, there are interferences as yet unknown ... et all.

It'll take some work ... Too much morning cloud contamination. Sometimes that can release at some critical morning processing of the sounding by the sun, but don't know just yet if this is the type of air mass susceptible to that way of doing so or not. We'll see. I don't think this scenario has enough synoptic forcing to do it without CAPE production so sun soaking is needed.

We were in the 80s here in the mid Atlantic/SNE regions in two Febs over the last 7 years fwiw

Once again, the GFS couldn’t resist. It’s jamming all the heat back west again… All that we’ve been seeing trying to get into the east with the debatable WAR … Bahama Blue, or just dews…. it took it all and used it kill more hikers out west … dropping a trough in here at least excuse imaginable

I wonder if we’re gonna get some thunder down here overnight… I had a light South Southeast breeze all day and then just in the last hour it suddenly kicked around in the west southwest and increased a little bit… When that happened the air took on that smell of summer’s BO like it’s trying to transport

Looking at visible evening satellite those must be some spectacular side lit CB vistas if you’re in northern Vermont looking south, because you’re looking from clear air right into the anvil and tower wall

Yeah ... it looks like no sooner did I suggest we may get that under the belly style warm delivery - as opposed to WAR, which I still have reservations about that ... - and the next day, some of these runs are doing just that. We had some heat during July. It just wasn't 'big,' nor was it as noticeable as a metric because it was tied up in a (?) historic DP run. But there were days 87 .. 89 with DP of 75 here in Ayer, despite being completely controlled by a trough. This 12z Euro run looks like it's just returning to that same game -

DPs are around 55... still really nice out.