Typhoon Tip

Plus, I suspect it gets hotter for us here relative to 850 mb - assuming mixing depth. Our sigma is a higher surface pressure. That's why 23C ...albeit rare here, gets us our 104 rarity. They need to 26C at 750' elevation to get that hot. The other aspect, it was 99/80 at one max point at MDW and ORD there... If you take the DP down, they would have been hotter. The GFS just has a bug up it's physical ass when it comes to BL thermodynamics and it's the handling of theta-e it seems to have never been very good with going back several versions since they start churning new ones out every 18 months or so.

It was 26C 850 mb over ORD last week ... just sayn'

The point is the 'lesson' no comparison was being suggested -

The lessons of Charlie not forgotten... That storm showed what even a modest shift in the discrete track can do to civility that musta felt rather secure in the 6-12 hourly position offered up by the 2004 state of the art ... Granted, normally above the 95 percentile confidence - a 15 mile "tick" or wobble. It shifted like 15 miles S as it was nearing the coast. I recall patrons of a diner that clearly had it's roof peeled off in the background, being interviewed... They were coming off as though it were somehow the prediction fault they were "caught off guard". There's no accounting for the profound stupidity found in the general population. Just slack-jawed wrong for more reasons to begin with here. So hands being cuffed by lack of another method ...they have to over guess the impact region. This thing has east bump nearing the coast written all over it, too.

Yeah, the weakest of all the Jedi ... Maybe that's why Obi was named 'Wan' ... .. though it always seemed that way. I always thought the cinema writers/story tellers were either holding back with him, while he's getting his ass handed to him by some Sith or Vader ...etc, or he was hiding the fact that he was kind of weak sauce. These other Jedi were Earth movers in their hand-to-hand combat scenes. Much more lithe and acrobatic. Obi Wan was always sort of hiding behind some philosophy of taking the higher road... thinking his way out. So it seemed - okay. I thought Luke was like that too a little bit. He was really good with the Light Saber, but he never moved stuff - as much - with his mind. Seemed to struggle there a little. Maybe he was like abstractly a good looking kid with a learning disability. Take "Empire Strikes Back" ... he ends up upside down, tied off and helpless in an ice cave, while some man eating snow monster has him lined up on the menu. His Saber is helplessly lodged in the wall of ice and snow some 10 feet away. With swelling timpani drums and dystopian keyboard synths in the background, he inhales deeply as he rolls his eyes back into his head. Temple veins pulsing, the sword begins to jiggle - 'oh he's gonna do it; he's gonna do it' no doubt. The little Jedi engine that could ... it's at last freed in the nick of time so that in one motion he cuts him self from manacles and dispatches said monster. Other Jedis are flicking their hand and half a building collapses... Floating through the air while solving equations and shit. Why the hell aren't they going at it against Vader and Siths. It's like the good heroes of that whole saga are kind of 'wan' ... or weak? Underdogs I suppose.

As far as what it means for CC... mmm - but, the "CC warming" (as in delta -) isn't as fast as a single model run, putting up 40 to 50 dm of unbalanced medium at planetary scales, like Brian's post/ Euro ensemble means has it. The GEFs does it too. Yeah, so, I wasn't meaning to implicate CC in that. Lol. I'm sure it plays a decimal part. But these guidance means seem to end up in that exotically warm state, which really vastly outpaces and surpasses the CC delta.

No one asked ... just an op ed moment: There seems to be a 'prediction competition' with regard to this warm ENSO era? Perhaps non-disclosed... Personally, I believe that while a precise prediction "weather" (nyuk nyuk) a given warm(cool) ENSO period may have some value, only "some". Then, considering such precision can't really be made given the present day convention, it seems the consternation and energy spent doing so only provides a very limited return value... Somebody involved in this forum engagement may or may not covet some sort of unique genius in ENSO prediction research ... If so, why you hangin' around here? Go to NCEP and offer your services for 150,000K/yr. But even if you could ... the utility side after the fact is still only partial. I don't mean to imply one should not try - it may be a fun hobby if nothing else. Otherwise, the best use of one's time is researching the bigger picture, the fuller planetary integral of forces that have become just as ( if not more so... ) important in forecasting how/what ENSO means in winter forcing. It seems more and more so that the constant "fuzz" of competing constructive vs destructive interference' amid that total manifold, 'emerges' the winter complexion - this more synergistic approach is intuitive, really. Because very discrete 'strength' distinctions are meaningless noise compared to the machinery of the whole thing. I would start in determining the frequency and possible causes of the uncoupled states. These appear to be increasing in frequency spanning the last 10 to 20 years. There's nothing really worse in this science (or any discipline) than thinking you've go it, operating along a pathway, only to find out it was paved by false positives.

yeah figured it's garbage

Impressive couple of operational GFS runs overnight. Seeing the 850 mb anomaly plumes actually near D5 before vanishing is one helluva an achievement (for this now geriatric summer). It's been almost 5 weeks of 'big heat' signaling into the D10+ range. I've seen these kind of summers before. The pattern sets in early with either a trough in the E variant, or the Maritime version ... close enough in this latter sense that we have a constant mid level NW flow shearing heat off and preventing it from getting NE of Pittsburgh. Either way, we block. Meanwhile,the whole summer, the models attempt to do so with heat in the extended... Finally, in September, we get a 3 day heat wave ... once the sun is wan.

I've actually noticed the unbalancing for about 15 years frankly, and it's getting more coherent (as in changing). And yes "more" blue but not enough blue ... does materialize as those distance ranges near.

Does the forum admin really want the main Weather and Disco to be spam bombed ?

Heat wave released … a week later boom

Word! I just got done saying something similar. The 'pattern' is warming and supports anomalies, but this model fills it in with this kind of error. also, the model cumulatively ends up with too high of heights(equatorial-side) and too low of heights (polar-side) of the meant jet - particularly observable beyond D6. I noticed this in the winter actually. Which ironically ... it's less noticeable during winters since ~ 2004 ..since the winters became/becoming gradient saturated with higher temperature gradients in the transition latitudes --> higher wind velocities. It's like the physics of the model has the right idea, but is too extreme there-over.

The GFS is an odd model. The scaffolding of it's synoptics is often accumulating a cold bias by the time it gets beyond 5 and appreciably more so, 10 days.. Yet, despite that, it fleshes out said scaffolding with a total clown heat-show in the boundary layer warm sectors like that. We can see upper 90s and blow most records away and do so by a goodly margin just fine - also in the integral if that were to last days.

Right - It's a pain in the ass, too because one of my forecast matrices involves the CDD vs HDD ... The increase is linear when calculating the CDD, but the HI is logarithmic ... It seems the calculation needs to be modified for the HI, because even though the "HI," or "Apparent" temperature is really only a reasonably close approximation, it's still useful enough. And, my personal belief is that the HI is what really drives much of the electrical consumption .. .particularly in the upper ranges.

Pretty exceptional warm signal - relative to calendar - over the last couple of modeling cycles. American telecon spread combined with trend techniques ... not exactly opposed either.

essentially unlivable without environmentally controlled option -

Certainly true for the lower mid Atlantic ... .. if there is a late season heat signal, which there is, it's more apt to affect after Thursday/Friday up our way, anyway. Then uncertainty as to magnitude and how long heading into week 2. Labor day may actually be quite warm and humid if things break right.

that's weird ... y'all's posts all just posted twice

I don't understand why these synoptic products depict those negative 850 "anomalies" over the (assumed) high country like that, when the entire region is under a synopsis lidded by the opposite. Where does that come from? They all do that, too, not just the Euro.

No convection later ? not meaning to be snarky, but it feels humid and the LI's are still hovering around -3 at regional scales. Thing is, ...tomorrow. The GGEM/NAM (stopped looking) have that kind of inversion miasma with raging mist look. A circumstance that I think might be mitigated if there is less BL loading and more sun bake today? I haven't really been paying attention to the dailies over the past week. Firmly in the other hobbies time of year.

So... last night's Euro run marks the 5th consecutive day, so 10 cycles worth of models runs ..., whence the model puts up 18+ C at 850 MB on a continental wind trajectory, for D7/8/9 and 10. Across none of those runs along that span of time has that layout made it to D6. The only reason I'm willing to buy this time .. (with a really cozy warranty -), is because the GFS is somehow managing against its own cold bias in that time range, to do something similar. Meanwhile, the 850 mb thermal layout above 70N is now consistently below 0C, with pockets of -10C increasing. Nice to see that for winter enthusiasts ... It's like the cirrus over a distant horizon even though there isn't a cloud in the above sky.

that should be the new distinction ... covers all the bases, really. for now on, the day is either 'not good for paving ' or 'good day for paving ' except in summer vs winter, the connotation changes sign, such that we like the ngp in winter, as oppose to summer. if we just stick to that it greatly simplifies the engagement.

I think the distinction between the two is irrelevant since about circa 2004 moving forward

I'm thinking atmospheric arithmetic ... like (A+b+X+y + ... n)N-term type forcing. This go of it, the hemisphere commits to winter gradient/jets and R-wave situation; the result would favor a flat +PNA with fast embedded wave propagation, as well as times of intense ambient wind speeds in mid and upper levels. Tendency mind you ... And, that also would be a mean. Even in the worse seasons, a +PNA can spike intra weekly and get the job done - see February 1995's particularly ongoing putrid winter, then out of nowhere we set up a bombogen Del Marve to interior Maine and we got 10-20" in the interior. And it does matter whether a flat PNA --> PNAP occurs in 1900 vs 1950 vs 2000 vs 2023, too. We have to at some point capitulate to the obvious, namely ... these subsequent seasons are taking place along a warming climate curve, one that is increasingly more logarithmic - meaning accelerating in latter/recent decades. High analog value synoptic set ups, can result a 1900 snow storm as rain in 2023 ...etc... I think we could be storm active ... with quick moving events that may favors rain --> cold transitions. This type of look would not take but a minor adjustment to get those front wall IB snow scenario.. Or, in fairness, rain.