Typhoon Tip

this is one of the most extraordinary constructs you'll ever see out of an ensemble mean for this range and current modeling technology/capability ...

not sure where to put this as it may actually segue around the 30/31st ... i lean jan 2nd but i'm pretty sure if i put this in that january thread it will be get missed. from a purely telecon inference, there is a huge signal for the first week of january for actual winter storm. i get it that the epo is diving and so forth as others have also noted ... but i'm not talking about just cold or a cold pattern signal. i'm saying that there's a potential for something massive over the eastern mid latitude continent between the 31st and ~ jan 5 or 6. so obviously the coherency isn't very good so there's not much to comment or speculate after that. it could be a big ordeal, or perhaps a series that cumulatively exhaust potential, but it's been a long while since a teleconnector convergence projection. i can see several different correlating modalities, converging on jan 2 - if having to choose

that would be the one. I had lived in Rockport, Ma the previous year, a time when I gathered my first experiences witnessing the thunderous power of the north Atlantic. There was really only one coastal storm during that winter I was there, but that was enough to get me really hooked on the phenomenon of storm wind, combining lower barometric pressure, turning the sea into a monster. Creepy cold abyssal walls of camouflage green that rise up to a knife edge just before folding over with such force that when standing upon the beach, feeling quite insignificant before that specter, you could swear you felt the tumult seismically under foot. I'd never seen such sights before ... having grown through adolescence/early childhood in southern lower Michigan. I was all about crispy tcu's and tornadoes. I witnessed an EF3 tornado, on Tuesday, May 13, 4:30 pm, Kalamazoo. A dimmer switch stole the daylight over the preceded 20 minutes. Then, the WWII era air-raid horn started blaring. The sitter yelled for me to come into the basement - I looked at her with the expression of a sociopath, turned and ran instead toward my favorite thunder-cloud clearing. Lol. There I saw the cone, perfectly smooth subtended about half way to the ground beneath from my rough 1.5 mi vantage. It looked like swarms of bees were rising and falling in pulsating masses underneath - and it's quite true about that sound... I'd only add, it's not really just like an engine test adjacent to an aeronautical proving ground, but it had this like shrill, as though the wind itself was shrieking out in pain. It's fantastically arresting - nothing else matters when you are child bearing witness to something like that. And it was the best seats in the house! I was in that wind void region, ahead of the RFD, and having the inflow jet a few hundred feat over the tree tops, providing a relative calm to see how effortlessly the blithe beast discards whatever it is that fate happened to put in its path. Mainly what I saw was single story urbania being ripped into the vortex. 7 people lost their lives that day. I sometimes reflect upon that moment with that visage of carrying on in that not-so distance, that I probably was witnessing actual death take place. Oh, and for that little act of sitter defiance I earned myself a week of grounding - a ruling that would be later commuted. Some punishments are just to futile I suppose .. 2 years before that ... the Cleveland Super Bomb. I was not here for February 5-7, 1978. But the January 26-28, 1978 event that took place 2 weeks prior, I can honestly say I have never experienced anything of winter rage that nearly compares to that in the decades since living here in New England. But ... in defense of New England, the 'maintenance winter storms' of winter season, are vastly more common and produce greater entertainment value in aggregate - by a considerable margin. This is in no means attempting to strike up a competition between the two... it's kind of like trying to compare Mike Tyson in his prime with a Rumble In The Jungle version of Ali. Beside, .. from the accounts of Harvey Leonard ( whom I'd later privilege to intern with) and others that grew up in this region, Feb 1978 was probably more like a twin seasonal thing... probably should consider 1978 a GOAT year and just call it a day. So, I was not completely miss-understood regarding winter storms when I arrive out here to the eastern tip of Cape Ann in the mid 1980s. But the whole ocean aspect was something I really wanted to get back to after my family relo-ed again to Acton during 1987. Having friends still in town up there, it was an easy arrangement to dork may way back for the big storm. As it were, we really didn't suffer a lot up there. Some small boulders and a large yield of seaweeds hurled onto the streets of Front Beach at high tide. And of course ... lots of heavy spray and mist pelting along sea facing shops and edifices that line the shore fronts - like what you see on t.v. I'm not sure how Marblehead and Hull and LI Sound and the Jersey shore did... My memory has an impression that Jan 1987 was the highest storm tide event ( though ..) until the December 1992 event.

that looks like an odd suggestion of an El Niño stj undercutting a whopper La Niña EPO

Ok but why? lol

The nam was too aggressive this morning … But it did have the right idea yesterday with a couple of run cycles being northwest of other guidance

yeah ... females are awesome ? what does that mean

we've actually been onto that and other aspects surrounding the increasingly enso uncoupled periods of vaguely correlative hemisphere's, going back many years in this subforum actually. agreed -

that's one helluva a cold signal in the super synoptic projection - like to see the mjo swing around... but i'm willing to bet it unfurls in the rmm guide given time. that latter aspect is interesting ... as much as the phase 5 [apparently so ] neg interfered and kept this +pna lower frequency, that may be an indicator that the overall timing of the forcing is in sync on the left side/Americas

yeah, again .. i don't disagree. in fact, most nam variations are risky usage outside of convective initialization - hidden secret. this is a meso-beta scaled consideration below. just in this one handling arena, where is near coastal thermal compression/intense hydrostatic gradient ...etc. when q-g forcing (-omega) runs out over top... the problem with an overall gradient rich flow regime ( i.e. tending to stretch the x-coordinate ) the globals will tend to outpace the cyclogen response in the lower troposphere. it's obviously a resolution issue below the boundary pause, where the nam is likely better resolved, it has a lengthier lifted condensation and more proficient latent heat release ...adding to uvm. better/quicker/deeper uvm response leads to the nam just being faster with cyclogen ... even just marginally so that tends to scrunch the realization closer to the coast when that happens. i would also argue it is why the nam has a nw bias at 60-84 hours... it's could be at other times over assessing that instability.

yeah i here ya. you know ... sorta supposition but, i've been yammering about this subtle progressive bias in the gfs for years. it's really almost down to the nuanced level, but it's there .. always tending to pull or stretch at the x-coordinate component of the wave function. i think it's ultimately related to the same reason that compared to other guidance, by d10 it's typically cumulatively colder heights on the polar side of the westerlies ... even if only by 2 or 3 dm, but i've seen it be as much as 10dm in trough nodes. that overall integrates just enough annoying more gradient to cause the balanced the g-winds in the westerlies the girder to the ferrel trade latitudes to have necessarily more speed...etc. i remember snarking many pages ago ... if there's ever a situation that requires a west correction the gfs would likely be the last model ever admit that. heh. i'm not sure it is 'the last' in this case, but seems to have waited until pretty late the game here. interesting

looks like there's an amorphous cf as anticipated - it may become more defined ...

I tend to agree ... i outlined a few meteorological aspects a while ago that goes into the why-for the (bold ^ ) tact is advisable. altho, i do suggest the NAM physics are very good for these low level hydrostatic gradient deals - just to add. the gradient/steep elevating frontal slope enhances rising motion along the up-glide that's triggered under what looks like might be under done q-g forcing in that area. we'll see.. but whether this means more low sfc pressure resulting, farther nw of previous guidance clusters or not, there's classical mechanics of qpf blossoming between central jersey to se nh. also noticing a 300 mb entrance fan to assist with that over central ne

this particular statement is only symbolic/jest but man ... the sky has that look! seems like it's been many years since that patina gray density dimmed the daylight so ominously over an actual gelid air mass such as this. and on this side of christmas -

oh, there's a obs thread ... i guess we should move all this over there? whatever i guess. Will, does that rad up date in this frame or do you have to post that -

yeah thx Will that confirms my idea there - as far as i can tell... there's obviously a jet streak running out s of that central axis of rotation, again ... roughly sw pa, but there is sooo much potential along that axis between cape may and the waters s of cape code that i'm curious about that eddy mechanic traversing over that region. the left entrance of the jet max (s) may be more activating of cyclogen response rather than being completely guided by the right side/entrance region like the globals

mm i get a suspicious vibe that the models are underdone with the vorticity node that appears to be oriented over w/sw pa this hour. it's trundling east via both vis and ir ( having trouble finding a good wv source for some reason ) and as that cyclonic rotational mechanic encroaches upon the coast ... ee. as i was saying above, there's a pig ton of "uncounted for" instability/potential between cm and cc, so there could and probably should have been more there - yeah you know the stuff along nj shore that folks are mentioning is like that region's so sensy to detonating that it's metaphorically sizzling already. this will be fun to check in on during the day see how these obs resolve.

we're probably about as far west as this system is going to 'correct' ? it's fine... for me anyway. take 20 or even 30% off the top of the nam is still a relative win for this event considering where it was 24 hours ago in guidance. but, i outlined some of the physical processes that i consider as instrumental in why we got this late west fix on things... and yes, the nam may be perhaps too efficient. looking at sat and pressure tendency metric/obs it seems more of a nj model low has some early indication here. we'll see

i understand why the nam is doing this and i suggest folks take it more seriously - guarded, but seriously. firstly, from a purely/personal experience with this guidance in the operational usage ...it is not as bad as reputation/court of public abuse letting, at time frames < 30 hours but, that aside ... what i am about to say is no analog, but this is 'circumstantially' beginning to remind me of dec 2005, when this model's forefather version smoked all other guidance in depicting a 'nj model low' type of detonation, where the other guidance' were se of it. the reason it did that is because of the low level thermal packing that axists along an axis from roughly cape may nj to just se of cape cod. the analysis this morning indicates an intense horizontal temperature gradient, which is likely collocated with an actual hydrostatic thickness wall along or near that same axis. as the wind/difluence mechanics approach from the west above that axis, the right entrance of the mid/ua acceleration is likely to enhance systemic up glide along that elevated frontal slope, a slope that is unusually steep. that angle of rise then makes the pseudo adiabatic process very efficient .. increasing buoyancy, which fees back positively concentrating cyclogen more nw of guidance' that may be challenged to resolve this. - this type of smaller scaled circumstance, overall, is something the nam is uniquely qualified to handle. not intending to go completely with the nam ... but the above is the type of correction that requires being nearly on top of the event in order to "see" these physics - they almost need to exist before that correction occurs, because the global models seem to have a weakness in the arena of effectively setting the table with these discrete environmental aspects. ... short term/now-cast

sure looks that way ...

It's definitely one of those situations when your looking at sat/ir loop and your going, 'there's no way this thing ends up east'

ha! maybe attribution helps us here... the pwat growth in the ambience with higher totals everywhere thing that's connected to cc may help us over-achieve around this w-nw arc just sayn'

fwiw - i changed the title of this saga .. it's very short term for doing that but, heh - these models are sorta acting like we still have 3 days left of modeling

it would be so perfect man - i get it... man. it's 28/21 here. i mean, that's the temp and dp spread of lore. if this thing were just 3 ch's nw, we'd be talking 0 ptype contended bliss. although the 06z almost makes me wonder if this is a now-cast coup, incoming... i frankly think it would be just fantastic if the euro and gfs eat meso crow, despite all their super top secret def jam souped-up bad-ass rock star advancements over the last 10 years ... a good ole fashioned positive bust for the underdawgs one thing we have to admit - this pattern didn't fail to produce. i realize the centricity of folks', in needing it outside their actual front door, won't allow them to feel they need to necessarily concur... lol. but they would be outside a fair and objective ability to judge the reality of what's going on with this. this has achieved both nice identification/ recognizing of/for leading indicators, as well, fun for seeing it emerge then having so much tracking opportunity over the last week's worth of model cinema/entertainment chances. the devil being that the system slips 3 ch's too far e ... that's just unfortunately unavoidable some times. sad trumpet.

didn't get up very early this a.m. so likely behind but yeah ... the gfs bumping enough nw at 06z (18 hours lead no less!) like that gives pause. if this goes ahead and verifies .. i want some f'n acknowledgement by this group/social media for the sref. i'm not asking people to give up their impressions of that model system but in the event of this getting a 3-5" snow almost to 495, with 4-7" se, that's not the global models getting credit for that - in fact ... it would be an indictment