Typhoon Tip

If this goes on to do what the GFS general theme over the last 32 cycles ... has been unable to deviate from showing, this will be a first in modeling history that any guidance was so exactingly correct from 13 days lead ... - or whatever/how-many days it's been. That theme has not deviated enough to consider any other track - not really. Gee, we wonder if it will pull that off when it shows a coastal bomb in the winter.

Inside channel/ preview of expected 11 am track guidance ...

928 mb 140 kts

160 mph

It’s comical how that hard right has never changed in the runs now for three days while they move everything else all over the place - thaw shall not pass!

They barely do ha ha

Shrinking symmetric eye

They did exceptionally well most areas. 94+ was common

Too far west ... - if it's not ideal, total fail!

in case anyone's skipped the 'fine print' Confidence remains high in the track for Lee, with almost no change made to the NHC track forecast. Lee should continue moving west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge for the next 5 days. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken by early next week, causing Lee to slow down. This track should keep the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands. There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential impacts a week or more out.

this thread should be renamed, "anatomy of a tease job"

yeah, I was gonna say. Seems urban areas are over producing this hour. 94 here in town... DP of 75 right or wrong, it doesn't 'feel' wrong

This paragraph by NHC is all kinds of fun to read ... The question doesn't appear to be if RI continues, but rather how strong Lee will get, and how quickly will it get there. Many of the models are calling for remarkable rates of intensification, beyond rates normally seen with model forecasts. Both HAFS models forecast Lee to exceed 150 kt within the next 2 days, and even HCCA brings the hurricane above the category 5 threshold. The NHC intensity forecast has been shifted significantly higher, but is actually within the guidance envelope. It should be stressed that internal dynamics (eyewall replacement cycles) will become a factor with the maximum strength of Lee as it becomes a major hurricane. This is almost certain to lead to fluctuations in intensity that are beyond our ability to forecast at these lead times. Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Lee beginning this evening and overnight, which should provide extremely useful information about Lee's intensity during the coming days.

As stated above, RI is occuring, and will likely continue today. " Nice!

Gilbert still holds the eye-candy trophy in my book. That sucker grew so large that it's areal circumvallate was the size of Texas, and at one point ...one of the extended spiral arms actually developed a new tropical depression along it's axis of flaring convection.

Bounced to almost cat 3 on the 11 am. 105 mph, 983 mb.

I heard on NPR last night that a handful of school districts around Massachusetts were on early release notice for today and Friday.

Meh ... diurnal lows have owned the ballast of our particular contribution to the global warming curve for many years. It's going to mean there are 10 this or that months - but it evades common experience when people tend to be asleep. Lol I suspect/hypothesize our predicament with that has to do with the fact that our DP temperatures have been rising along in its own curve. It's tending to thermodynamically adulterate the highs from rising as far, and then holding minimums elevated ( in the means mind you - ) per the course of the last 20 whatever years. I'm sitting here at 90 F over a 'garden DP' ( my naming convention for Wunderground sites -) averaged to 75 using the sites within a mile of this location. KFIT was 89.6 this last hour fwiw - Anyway, doing that combination at 10:4fuckum5 in the AM, on September 7 is impressive. I've seen be 95 here on September 7. In fact it was on this date that was observed, many many years ago though. I wanna say 2014 ..that far back. But the DP being both this high and in combination hasn't been previously observed since I've lived here along this part of Rt 2 - unique. I don't see any reason why that 95 can't be challenged later in the afternoon.

Heh...not a big "fan" ( haha) of the western semi-circle idea. If the system is moving by E or SE of your location at 40 mph (say), and you are supposedly inside the TS force wind expanse, that equates approximately to ( TS wind expanse - 40 mph) = a pleasantly breezy nice day to be outside involved in unbothered activities during the hoopla of massively expanded this that and the other thing ...

Here's what's going to happen ( lol ) ... We'll get this bad boy up to Cat 4.pubes distance of a Cat 5er at some point along the way. It'll get a path feedback from that, that bumps it west in the guidance - suddenly, NHC is caboosing their statements with 'Persons along the EC should be carefully monitoring ...' etc, and officially, the dopamine hornet's nest is poked and the buzz on this and other social media will be elevated to a rage that is comparable to the power of the cyclone itself - then, it starts ewr cycling, expanding in areal circumvallate - the core will thus be down to a strong Cat 3. It turns the corner down there and starts the climo acceleration routine. Warnings are gong all the way to Mt Washington - but somewhere E of Jersey not 10 minutes before the L.I. transit it drops to Cat 2 heading for EEN, NH... the wind in the interior of SNE seldom exceeds 70 mph because the storm is by nature weakening rapidly and transitioning - lifting. ... There will be posters in here pissed off calling it weak sauce this and we got screwed. Kind of the same phenom as winter, when you got 16" and everywhere else got 20. Bust

Sort of an esoteric interest here ... but, I'm curious about the 'create it's one environment' hypothesis with Lee. Seems like a good candidate to test that. Basically, if a hurricane is very intense and large, it starts to create an extended subsidence ring. This influences unto itself, stabilizing its surrounding it quasi protects itself. The system benefits in a couple ways ( in theory) but for this concern... it would tip the motion of the hurricane more W. The way that works is, the ridge to the N is imparting a west --> steering flow. But the beta motion of the hurricane is balanced against that; hence the 'WNW' cyclone motion. But if adding NVA from the subsidence ring to that ridge along the N arc of the total manifold, that introduces an additional west steering. I'm wondering if some of the modeling is even picking up on this... These HAFS-A and HAFS-B guidance ( for ex) are ending up a little ( but perhaps crucially) S coordinates out around 120 hours comparing the Global runs that are not as powerful. These former models are bucking for MDR pressure records. Right? I'm 917 mb ...

It's convection is wobbling around in a poorly organized state of fracturing CDO ... BUT, given the larger picture and preview that's likely to resolve itself. It may just be an artifact of cloud morphology? it kinda seems it has crossed from 12N to nearly 16N, while moving along about that same distance toward the west over the last 36 or so hours - just eyeballing satellite; don't freak out. Using that non-verified aspect, the motion looks more NW to me. Even if that's wrong, those of 'responsible and sympathetic morality' that still want this to skill-saw its way up the eastern seaboard ... you don't really want N motion this early. There's still not much deterministic confidence as to what this will do after passing the 70W, 'unofficial' uh-oh threshold. I still want to see if the models are going to be right with the amount of N motion along the track between 96 and 144 hours. That 2-day span of ridge accuracy to the N of the Lee is important as to where the cyclone will be when it makes its connecting flight N. If it's at the latitude of Tampa, versus Atlanta makes a difference. Beyond that, there's still not a lot of admirable continuity wrt the region between ORD and SE Canada. The NAO is falling ...when has a D7+ ranged NAO been very precisely modeled? It wouldn't take much for that descending index mode to send up just enough height response over NF from this range. If the Euro type trough then plumbs a little more.... These are easy corrections to make. If they don't. They don't. If the do, we have a threat. I wanna say... The +d(PNA) and the -d(NAO) have been timed wonderfully from the get go and still were very much so as of yesterday - coming from the American basis.

Cucumbers this late above 40 N is unheard of

Maybe this will be one of those times where the D9 operational GFS is within 50 miles of pin point precision all the way up. Never seen such continuity at this range, from any model for that matter, when handling a tropical entity that’s crossing into the domain of the westerlies. In fact … we’ve seen an ambrosia of different timing and spacing of features modeled between ORD and NF over the last couple of days; yet despite all those variations the TC itself still runs along that same rail service. Pretty remarkably fixated and uninfluenced by any of it … For that matter, maybe we’ve crossed into the era of D10, 90% accuracy .., ‘magine that. One model run then no need to run a forum. Lol

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