Typhoon Tip

Climate change will impose a population correction. This is all going to be similar to the story of Noah … ridiculed and pelted while he struggled through it to build the ark. Then the rains came … and came, and came and came. And as the hordes began to drown, they had no boat of their own - and the ark was insufficient to house them Only this time it will ironically be by fire … at least as a metaphor.

Perhaps, but just using it to make a point that we were colder than just about the whole world, scalar anomaly aside - in principle that's true Just an utterly enabling persistence, too ... perfectly designed to enhance disbelief. haha

I would add to this (btw) poignant observation ... that the entire winter has been a fractal suppression event. Fractals appear like fixed structures in nature but given enough time, prove to be randomly re-enforcing patterns. This last winter looking like this, and or a variation that's similar ( I realize this only Jan but it's on my desk top) ...suspiciously qualifies a randomly re-enforcing ordeal.

It's okay - it's not exactly "warm". I guess relative to seasonal normal you'd have to say that, but the sun's been shining for an hour... it's just now 60.

uh where's this coming from. LOL I don't know... that chart's layout, as is, is less likely to even exist in reality - not from this range. But the telecon spread says that cold solutions have some merit through the 30th in general. It may in fact snow again... or just be cold rain the smells like snow - it is late March. Any significant warm departures, while not "im"possible ...they are less favored until after that approximate time. The first week of April may see a rebound the other way.

look at this crazy gradient on the GGEM next weekend

you didn't ask me but thurs night-ish

heh...i guess the GGEM does have a minoring event here ... i just lost it in the shuffle when I was looping the frames because it is so inconsequential.

Oh I'm willing to try... but whenever I see roni curling and black around the crust, I figure it spend 5 minutes too long inside the kiln

Pro, it's depicted during a favorable telecon spread. Con, the GFS has an ongoing aggressive bias with N/stream mechanics. That lends to it being over amplified with that particular wave space as others have also noted. The GGEM has no interest fwiw -

Looks burnt

Today's date means nothing to winter ... or spring for that matter. The reality of nature does not oblige these human invented boundaries. Like dates of time in space...etc. There's really nothing in celestial mechanics (the machinery of the solar system ...), and the implications therefrom for Earth's perspective, that gives physical significance for having an Equinox occur. It's merely a geometrical happenstance that must occur as the Earth rotates with a fixed 23.5 tilted axis (from the vertical), while then endlessly revolving around a relative fixed point in space, the sun. Which calling these aspect fixed is really approximating anyway... but for the sake of discussion. The sun does wobble as it's retinue of planetary gravitational bodies et al, move around it and induce their own pull. There's also changes in the orbits (delta eccentricities) that are small, but non-zero over the many Millennia ... But for the sake of discussion, it's not a violation of reasoning to just assume the sun a fix point in space (relative constant), and then the aspect of Earth's tilted axis then moving around it along an ~ circular pathway, as dependably repeating for billions of years ... At some point along that constant journey around the sun that repeats every full year, the axis of tilt has to pass a point along the way where the 24 hour day ends up evenly split ( "Equi" ) between day and night ("nox") ... = Equinox. That's all it is. The 22nd and the 19th are just as important. That's about it. The winter doesn't stop, nor does spring begin just because there is a system of human invented Laws that must be obeyed by citizens. Otherwise, there would not be a single year since all this was created some 4.5 billion years ago, that didn't end up with some sort of misdemeanor charge if not an arrest for something more criminal. 4.5 billion March 20th guilty of cite-able offenses ....

This may perhaps belong in the pollution thread, but does have a place here as well ... https://phys.org/news/2025-03-scientists-reveal-hidden-sunlight-driven.html

It's been a funny thing where "attribution" is clearly in tact, yet we are perceptively being held at the farthest end of the cold side as is physically possible given the laws of nature. jeez

There's a distant telecon argument for tipping the mass field's into a cooler west, warmer east mid latitudes but not really until after the 28th and maturing through the first week of April. That on the Euro appears to jump the gun by a week or so. The ens mean, from which the telecons are calculated, are also not really showing that sort of warm drama by that time, and the first week of April or even the last couple of days of March are too far out in time for models to really materialize numerical signals. In other words, that's just as much bullshit as that big blue snow monster the model had in that similar time range from on 12z yesterday haha. man

fun rhetoric aside ... it's describing why it seems like the telecon's for AO/NAO hold onto this region like sticky tentacles whence the winter beast has already died - the nerves keep gripping, stealing time, sometimes, quite deep into the warm seasons I notice that about this area of the world within just a few short years of moving here - prooobably didn't help that my walk down the gang plank off the boat was onto the streets of Rockport Massachusetts, which worse than Labradorian ass vomit, that location is a dip-stick thermometer ... jammed allll the way in there But as I grew up and ascended into a Meteorological adult, through the pain and anguish of this cold dumpster landmass ( when it gets merely warm here we think we're actually at the party when we're not ) I began to see the reasons why it is. It's really pretty explainable. I love the winter storm season here. I just have difficulty dealing with this region during Aprils, which may as well include late March and early Mays. I will admit, objectively there can be gem days in that time span. This is all really reserved for those "other" times. When they set in... it just is difficult to either endure or describe just how bad it is to live in it. It's like being married to a abusive spouse, that has the bi-polar swings when they are quite charming until to the cork comes off the proverbial bottle - then it's 'what happened to your eye '( or in our case, 'why can't you sit down' ) - it's not enough to justify the marriage and your trapped.

It's about as close to a 10 out of 10 on that proverbial scale as it can be. It's 55 with zero wind in very pure clean air while the sun creates this vibe of having the warm cocoon

Trying not to use big words ( which sits really well with the general readers in here HAHA ) ...but there are planetary circumstances that enhance cold loading where we are in relation to the forcing by the continent upstream. We are geologically doomed in that sense... Namely cold is favored to get dug into SE Canada and the adjacent downstream lower Maritime - where it is also then thermally coupled to the Labradorian ass vomit. This makes us prone to later and later pattern offsets ( code for BDing ... which means Butt Donging to anyone trying to live here! ) Meanwhile, other areas of the globe at similar latitudes are a having blanket sex under the cherry blossom orchards of heaven's waiting grounds ... The super topographic circumstance of the continental north america, and how it interferes with the westerlies, causes an exaggerated correlation of the polar indexes whenever they are flexing over the eastern high latitude continent (Canada). From BDs to vaguely defined or non-descript CFs... to just having a seabreeze from either the S or the E... this is a escape from, not to, destination at this time of year until .. either May 15 or such time in which return is sanely advisable.

Impressive ...30 deg recovery so far. 26 to 56 and counting

https://wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-global-climate-2024

Huh. That doesn't look like a negative NAO to me... neutral perhaps with that flow being slightly top heavy near the Brits but that's also almost too far east of the NAO domain

Depends on the source re the bold? CPC here is different than those 'bell graphics

agreed in principle ... No secret to those that follow my content over the years ...big time proponent of the mathematically derived/statistical correlation fields. Why? because of your ending sentiment there for one... (bold), and when the cave happens, it's never going to be the other direction. It's either the whole way in favor, or...meets half way. But the "correction vectors" point to expressions that will emerge - just a matter of how much. That all said, there is a -EPO/+PNA in the foreground. We're going to need to tip toe through that period as warmth/spring enthusiasts... or, perhaps event suffer an event. That's just the reality in the meantime. But beyond that... unless the tele's change, the correlation goes warm shortly after the 28th or 30th

probably ends as raging smells-like-snow

No way! heh pretty sure you'd say this if it were July