Typhoon Tip

tonight might be fun on the roads outside of that warm secluded inner occlusion. Settle off to 31.5 instead of this 33 .. 34 stuff.

Ha. Just feelin' snarky this morning. By the way, I don't know who said what, nor when ...? If you were thinking I was responding to any one person, I was just skimming content. The idea of "people denying because they can" is something that just bothers me about the culture we now all live and breath within in general - it's a sociological pathology. It's bad out there. I blame the Internet, really. It's giving a podium to those with limited education, clearly lower virtuosity awareness in whether to speak without having learned information. Or, they are just not very intelligent due to circumstance/life history ... yet think they know. They come in different flavors, and socially recognized echelon is no indicator, either. Hailing from wherever, they believe their own righteous indignation (as though CC is some kind of violation of their rights and entitlement) must be just as meaningful as accredited source, with all the import. Sound familiar? It's like we're all showing up to the 'debates' with 'participation trophies' as our PHDs. Why that is a problem is that all human being engender conviction when others gather around their ideology. It's just the way we are. The consensus must be true, and so on... And the internet is linking together the plebeian wit; creating a consensus, it foments whatever narratives it needs - narratives seldom reconcile objectively reality. I wildly digress. Some of that is tongue-in-cheek cynicism that is probably hard to sense without the necessary sarcastic tone of actual voiced delivery... etc. But like all sarcasm, there's a soupcon of truth in there, too. I don't deny CC ( personally ) at all, myself. But you know ... it's not about whether one denies or doesn't? Oh, the debate carries on, ...but it's futile. It's real, and it is mathematically demonstrated/proven that anthropogenic forcing is playing a roll; all data included, a very big and undeniable roll. That's not alarmist, per se. That's fact. But therein links back to the sardonic paragraph above: Objective reality is still interestingly a problem for people. Let me just say the short version, they are being enable to do so. It's really a sociological problem. Fix the sociological abstinence to acceptance, fixes everything ... But, the same reason for the CC, is simultaneously preventing people from sensing the reality of CC at a very necessary personal scope - 'personal' because obviously they are unwilling if no apprehensive without some sort or form of direct proof. I hypothesize the reason society ended up that way is by what I call 'multi-generational convenience addling' It's basically all that is emerged since the Industrial Revolution since it took over as the foundation upon which modern civility and all of its practices came into being. Being protected inside the Industrial Revolution bubble ( and I use bubble for metaphor of fragility, despite the conceit of all the industrial farts that inflate 'the bubble'), reciprocated into successive generations over the last 150 years ... we've bread a peoples that are not particularly very desirable frankly ( hahaha). Life inside the industrial bubble affords lesser/no consequence for poor decisions, because it offers too many recourse' ... Rolling that impression over successive generations over the last 150 year, two things happens. One is recently papered/demonstrated that the average persons IQ is 20 pts lower than those prior to the Industrial Revolution. I read that paper and thought ...gee, that fits my 'denial because they can' rage rather nicely. hahaha. It's true though. The other thing that happens is, people don't believe in the dead end warning of CC and the implication of what it would mean, because every part of their being was fabricated by an entitlement to an abundance of recourse whenever faced with failure. The resonance of a 'dead end and dire warning' simply can't transmit through their wiring. It's a fascinating feed-back argument is what it really is... If you took a father in 1750, and showed him data that said if he didn't cultivate a certain way, his kids won't eat tomorrow, chances are he studies that text pretty damn closely rather than knee- jerk reacting in defiance of it.

There is spectrum of denial forms. At the heart of it all, people would stop all of it ... if CC caused them pain. End of story. As I've opined at length, in the past, the simple version is that people are not suffering consequences that actually cause them discomfort for the perspectives ...more importantly, the decisions they make based upon those perspectives. When they do, they will immediately desist all behaviors that cause the discomfort. - and denying CC --> causing CC, will go away. Unfortunately, it will be too late. Welcome to the this world's reality-explanation for the Fermi Paradox.

Keep getting lulls where it’s not doing anything Radar looks shredded

It was funny friend. ha... I really don't care - seriously.

Of course ... no sooner do I post that and the Euro comes out to directly point out those differences. I don't like the fact that this thing "might" be too closed off too soon. It really deepened aloft unusually quickly and coiled up around itself too early. They become donked tired pos after doing that. A run like this Euro decides to make the system more annular looking like that .. It's like the Euro wants to ride the line between typical April climate 500 mb lows, versus the GFS that says there's just enough to get something more interesting done.

Yeeeah first and foremost I'm trying to be objective..heh. I'm not sure I was being pessimistic just noting stuff. In the same vein, the models are trying to give some mechanic back here in the short range. The deep layer trough closes off too soon ( still ) for liking. It reaches a rather potent depth for April 3 climo all the way down to 520 dm centered ~ SW lower Michigan. It then fills over the next 12 hours back up to 532 dm or so, centered over N PA... But then a new center carves down to 526 dm openning up over Albany, after which it moves E across SNE as a height fall region in the midst of the ongoing CCB hosing SE NH. That interval is coincident with the overnight stuff 03 to 12z Wed nigh into dawn on Thur. It may have been more or less hinted prior runs, but its more obvious now. These "edgy" spring systems are sensy to nuances like that and can make or break the sensible profile of storms.

yeah I mean I was thinking along the lines of UVM

at some point the cold is just going to overwhelm the soundings and the edgy models that are IP/cat pawing may bust ... it's like venturing too close to the 'thermal event horizon' and the phase change physics pulls you down.

Yeah there is ..it's called a 101 F at the surface ...hahahaha

I think you pulled out an important aspect about this system's evolution on your previous post there. It's something I also noticed a couple of days ago but I haven't been able to engage Anyway, this system bottoms out aloft way west over Indiana/Ohio ... More typically, bigger kahuna event's parental trough bottoms out closer to the EC .. over the Del Marva to NY Bite region of the M/A... This one limps to the east coast over the next day. Heights have in fact shallowed by some 6 to 10 dm in the core by the time it's over LI at 500 mb. There's definitely a less than ideal mechanical timing with the total synoptic story of this thing.

This is exactly what I was visualizing when I took in the guidance over the last 24 hours this morning. This looks like an "unfortunately poor time juggernaut waste" due to seasonal forcing. Not lecturing at anyone here just op ed: ... folks need to realize that it's not just the in situ thermal circumstances on the storm chart day(s), it's the fact that everything leading up to it has been processed by now nearly two weeks past the vernal equinox. The arrival to this state of affairs, back on January 20th ( say ...) would likely just be a colder much more conducive to frozen event profile with far less consternation. Given the larger synoptic everything ... this was a massive signal - but for what? It was unclear from the start and here we are... This looks like light cold rain that flips to sleet for a while ... then back to light rain that flips to soaked cotton balls (once the 2ndary gets going) whenever it comes down hard enough. Ground melting almost equals the fall rate though. It just looks like a protracted cold misery with reducing redeeming aspects at this point that model blend. Yuck. The AI Euro version was the most interesting 00z version I saw... It had everyone N of the south coast safely < 0 C at 850 mb for the entire duration, with a 985 to 990 mb low transit along the climatological snow route, and 2+" of liq equiv QPF. It spans 2 days, so much of that would be at night.

2ndary takes over it’ll truncate the elevated warm tongue.

Prolly should go with the JMA... 2-3" of liq equiv over 24 hrs of rampaging Nor'easter

Steve ... I don't really care to get involved in that hair pullin' match but just for morbid curiosity .. why do you care so much what Scott's attitude is? LOL

Yeah... Kevin was mentioning this earlier this morning

It's probably hard to parse this out of the general model noise at this time, but the NAM at this range has a NW bias

Little leery of that -NAO perhaps showing up to a party where everyone's more than less gotten lost in cutter thinking. We're in a kind of fun-house modeling era. NW should really be less favored. Yet, our canonical storm is plagued with nuances to press the statistics... squeezing harder and harder NW into statistical domain that is lesser and lesser correlated with these western -NAOs. Mm, some part of my inner voice keeps whispering red flag ...but I also acknowledge the lateness of the year. Its taking on a bowling ball structure so early. We could actually correct some of this south closing in, while also weakening the total storm profile - both aspects would satisfy these oddities. It's a bit ironic... the NAO handling has been the most consistently immutable presence on the charts going back over a week. The NAO is traditionally a lower performance skill beyond short range, regardless of guidance source. I guess even the runt on the team hits the game winning shot some time. I tell you, the RGEM beat out all the guidance in the storm in early January. Granted there is a big fat 0 analog to this, but in so far as behavior ... it just reminds us to be cautious. I've always been more impressed with the Canadian suite during stronger blocking eras.

Kevin's exuberance aside for moment ... There has been a very abrupt changing of the guard signaled for quite some time amid all guidance, that sets in as this storm in the nearer term is exiting. Really quite abrupt as it is leaving. It's readily identifiable just looking at the actualized/operational model paintings from April 7/8 ... 11th. Not always but uuuusuauly, when the extended range operational models turn the paint brush with the colors provided by the teleconnection, that's higher than normal confidence for given extended range - There's literally about a day's worth of transition between the storm and the arrival of 60+ air. By the 9th 70+ F air would thermodynamic supported in the EPS layout with +7 to +10C 850 mb air mass sprawling across the lower Lakes and NE. It's ways out out so these synoptic metrics will be tinkered with ... but the general continental synoptic evolution through that period has been unusually stable in the guidance, suggesting a few days of d-slope/W wind transporting anomalous 850 mb thermal layout. I mentioned this a several days ago that the 2nd week of April appeared to be big green-up acceleration week ... I mean it's been in the advanced telecon, and since .. .the emergent model layouts with just as much consistency really as this storm in the foreground. interesting... it's like a wholesale 'climate couplet' and we emerge even for the first 10 days of the month.

and I'll add ... the position 'over the thumb' is stressing this type of -NAO correlation, too. I'm not sure if seasonality may somehow transitively allow that? It's stressing but I suppose not impossible. I kind of like mid range 'path of least resistance' to correct things. The "correction vector" is pointing toward less penetration to those latitudes, though. The other thing that makes that odd is that this block, albeit in the process of breaking down as this event is unfolding ...is retrograding S-SW.

That's interesting ...that's not the same as the 06z source I've seen, that places that cluster a little E of that toward the arm of the Cape. This above suggests the low probably stalling for 6 hrs over Providence. ha

It was ... but the point was that it hasn't deviated. I hunch that it'll be the same at 12z today - but we'll see. I don't particularly trust that guidance source ( lol ). It is what it is. I really just posted that as a tongue-in-cheeker.

Few pages behind in this thing, but I like the GGEM's blocking influence, during -AO and/or -NAOs, more so than the GFS Euro (for positioning aspects in space) and always have. Maybe it's something to do with that index being more important/urgent in every day means up there, but just anecdotally they seem to do well with that aspect. A blend in the ens means may be more useful. I haven't looked at jack squat since very early yesterday morning and that was a just a cursory pass thru. Fwiw, yesterday's Euro and GGEM solutions from 00z ( now 36 hrs old) vs last night's, other than essentially meaningless differences were remarkably similar. This looks like to historic storm on Jan 31st, but since it is March 31, we are getting some geriatric diminishing returns due to seasonal aspects that cannot be avoided. Again, this system is unique relative to anything we've seen this last season. It is anchored by the index rate of change, which is why it is moving so slow. It's driven by sub-PNA --> +PNA with a well timed NE Pac S/W diving in. This latter wave space gets caught underneath a very potent albeit -NAO burst over the western limb of the domain space. That is dense statistical correlation for just carving over the Del Marva ...yet the GFS once this over Worcester. Anyway, the wholesale event is some 30 hrs in some of these model because it is straight up index driven event... Unfortunate that it is happening on March 31 and now January 31. Shave 3 deg for winter climate off that thermal plumb and this thing would easily be a top 10 event. Not only would the ptypes be settled, but the more intense baroclinic axis throughout the entire domain would positively feed-back in consolidation and higher storm productivity results from that. So a few realistic aspect that cannot be avoided in this from what I am looking at. The JMA has never deviated from a blockbuster blue bomb, btw. If for cartoon value alone, this is a pretty ominous look

It’s a coarse model that probably isn’t very good… but the JMA’s 12z took 24 hrs to get to this arrangement below, a time span in which everyone remains below 0C at 850mb the whole way

It really is remarkable how quickly at least in the operational GFS, is transitive … Tries to go from the substantial snowstorm in New England all the way to the mid 70s just three or four days later.