fountainguy97

Significant uptick in GEFS members with this system.. CMC is close. This one is getting interesting. Sitting on the NW edge of this is exactly where we want to be.

This is a beautiful setup for the spine of the Apps. Big dog potential. Probably one of the best looks of the winter inside 180. Would like to see some more ensemble support though at this range.

To be fair to the GFS the EURO is very similar at 00z. It just isnt as dynamic of a system so the cold isn't there. This weekend is 100% cold chasing moisture with no other model support. Early next week could be a legit threat but support is low right now which is actually how we want it at this range. I'd rather be missed to the south at this stage. That is something we haven't been able to say any this year.

I am highly skeptical of this weekend and next week. Gfs has almost no support and we know how that has gone this winter.

Wind shear is necessary for long lived storms because it tilts the updrafts and downdrafts away from each other. Allowing them to be independent. Without shear the updraft and downdraft overlap and smother each other. Too much shear (wind) can just rip them apart from each other. Basically decapitating any storm. here is a brief NWS article about it. https://www.weather.gov/ilx/swop-springtopics The hrrr doesn't have any signs of issues with shear for the main line today. Doesn't mean there won't be limiting factors though.

Definitely looking like a "legit" severe weather event for TN this Friday. The usual low cape, high shear event as typical for early season. But with temps in the 70s and DPs in the 60s we should get some decent afternoon development.

I have a feeling we are going to have a massive kill-off of budding plants sometime soon... no way we don't have a solid cold shot before April.

80.6/53 today. An absolutely perfect afternoon.

34.7 and coming down good! Small flakes but can tell it's ramping up. Too bad this didn't happen at lunch. I've had .7 inches of rain since then.

35.8 with flakes mixing in. Not a shutout atleast lol. to continue the conversation... winter has been extremely low here. I'm over 8" below normal and will likely end up a foot or more below normal. I was talking to a friend who lives back in Eastern NC and he says it's the worst winter he was ever tracked. Not a single storm to track all winter. Not even a hint of a threat. Even in shutouts we typical have atleast a potential system or two outside the mountains. This year? Not a single one besides this one. rough.

Deform finally moving in but a toasty 39. Hoping to atleast see some flakes.

My guess is daytime timing has killed this. Tough day of 38-42 and rain ahead. Definitely puts a nice bookend to this winter lol. man... stings.

Tick tick tick hrrr looking good. final frame.

I'm not really sure about why some models have a deform band of death vs others with barely showers. You would think we would have a monster deform pivoting through... the Rgem made a big move for a heavier deform at 12z. Let's see it's 18z.

Can clearly see the difference between NAM and RGEM. For NE TN temps aren't the issue. It's rates.

I've been watching trends on the pivoting deform band as a potential surprise and the 18z nam just delivered. the euro camp from last night had the deform band pivoting further east allowing areas of NE TN to change to biscuits for the last 6 hrs of the event. Here is the nam trend. The hrrr has also ticked this way.

RAP, FV3 and EURO (hrrr too but just not quite there) have the deform band further east which allows rates to change NE TN to snow. They all have a good 6hr beat down on the tail end. This feature is still 40hrs out. Plenty of wiggle room. We may not be done yet.

The fv3 came in like euro.

Not sure. I've been tricked many times by the "but the soundings support snow" talk and almost always ended up watching rain fall. But this weekend is intriguing. I'm 33-34 and rain on hrrr with a cold column. It's so interesting to see the euro changing over to snow. Like I said. I'm not betting against modeled output but if there is any weekend to question soundings this is the one.

Woah... I missed this at 18z. I honestly can't find a meaningful difference between euro and others...

Yes I think the issue isn't the temperature more than it's just the deform band has moved west. If you look at simulated radars there is a massive dry slot Sunday. Rates can never overcome because there simply are no good rates.

1000 mile shift south still wasn't enough lol.

Tough pill to swallow. It never sat right with me that it was just so different than the rest and didn't budge. The whole cmc family never moved. should have been the red flag.

RGEM is king.

At 06z I can no longer ignore the warm solutions. CMC, ICON, RGEM, GFS are showing very little snow west of the apps. Looking bleak today. The NAM is also looking worse too although it jumped NW.