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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Pretty much all models have a rain to snow event for us. starts 3amish Sunday morning and peaking around sunrise.
  2. fountainguy97
    Man this thing is rolling. Literally lol. 12z
  3. fountainguy97
    12z suite: the NAM, RGEM, and ICON are all holding strong to the earlier cutoff idea. (good) I will update this as we go along. Early consensus does place us squarely in the "center of the cone" per Carver's wishes. Still lots of game time left.
  4. fountainguy97
    the timing of it closing off is the main factor. The faster it closes off (stronger quicker) = a further west track. The 06z gfs was more pr0gressive and weaker with the ULL. It closed off much later. As a result, the surface low was further west. ICON, CMC, EURO, and now the 12z NAM are all much stronger with a quicker close off which slows the storm down and allows it to pivot inland.
  5. fountainguy97
    These ULL systems are notorious for being a pain. Best to just sit back and see how this looks inside 48hrs. icon, cmc, euro at 6z are all lock step together with a East TN, App Spine hit. gfs and GEFS shifted east nearly 100miles at 06z to west NC. 12z should be a good benchmark as we are fully sampled BUT I've seen these get more uncertain at this range instead of more concrete. Unfortunately cut even kuchera in atleast half due to wet ground, daytime timing, and temps above 32. This is one of those "6" fell but only 2" stuck" type of deals.
  6. fountainguy97
  7. fountainguy97
    Impressive mean on 18z eps but GEFS is still spread. Wary of the super amped gfs for now. anyone have individuals for 18z?
  8. fountainguy97
    The valley is nuked.o
  9. fountainguy97
    Some great trends at 12z for some snow across the Southeast. Not so much our neck of the woods but the crew over in the Carolinas are absolutely snow starved haha. Maybe they can reel one in.
  10. fountainguy97
    The major checkpoint for me for a threat is getting the energy onshore over the US. Our energy will be partially onshore by 00z tonight and fully onshore by 12z runs tomorrow. Typically the 24hr period leading up to full onshore sampling is when we see the "snap" to a more uniform idea on modeling. That period starts in just a few hours. We should know rather soon if this is legit. Euro took another step for more separation at 06z this morning. Icon is heavily separated and the UK is a nice mountain snow like the GFS. This has more support than just the GFS model.
  11. fountainguy97
    Oct31-nov1 2014. Different trajectory but same idea. Bowling ball with extremely marginal temps. Probably was a paste bomb. probably more robust than this will be.
  12. fountainguy97
    Man what a borderline event in the 6z gfs. These "make its own cold" setups are nearly impossible to pull off. the gfs has been accelerating the northern piece which has allowed our southern to cutoff. Not much support but UK, Icon have a bowling ball. And the euro shifted that way at 0z.
  13. fountainguy97
    Some monumental changes with the 18z gfs regarding this weekend. the icon also has the bowling ball and it's even further south. This type of scenario could work for a much larger area than typical NW flow.
  14. fountainguy97
    Man. Another mostly dry and cool frontal passage in the works on the heels of the mid-week system. Just can't get anything to line up this winter. Everything is either too far west or in this case too far east. With winter on the way out I will be looking forward to these warmer days ahead!
  15. fountainguy97
    Good bit of consistency today for the 180-200hr event. Likely another backside NW event setup... wish we could get one of these to our south before spring.
  16. fountainguy97
    35 here. An occasional wet flake mixing in now. Oh so close to a paste bomb.
  17. fountainguy97
    Low res NAM for the win. Am I desperate? Maybe. Will it happen nope. it pulls some cold air down the back spine of the Apps. Interesting evolution. Probably WAY overdone. probaly a resolution issue. 3km is actually great for areas above 3000'. But need some colder air for lower regions.
  18. fountainguy97
    Man that squall east of Nashville looks awesome.
  19. fountainguy97
    Yeah I've been reluctant to bite for much long range chatter this winter but the 12z GEFS has a decent cluster of similar solutions. creeping inside 200hrs. Looks like this is a legit storm signal. Probably for points North and west of the vast majority of TN. we can be cautiously hopeful with this GEFS mean. Emphasis on cautious lol
  20. fountainguy97
    hrrr looking good for some streaky snow totals over the next two days. Bullseye over Unicoi with 5" IMBY. I'll take it haha
  21. fountainguy97
    Wednesday evening-Thursday looks pretty interesting. Has graupel squalls written all over it. Quick 15 min dusting type stuff. They can be pretty fun. I got nailed by a near 40dbz one a couple years ago here and it was white out for abt 10 min. Couldn't see 200ft in front of you.
  22. fountainguy97
    Uh.. wow
  23. fountainguy97
    Well 3 minor chances this week. Better than nothing! 1st event Monday will be border mountains only. Probably not a lot of accumulation. 2nd event could be a more prolonged NW event and could get more areas involved. Still in the 1-3" range. 3rd event is a sneaky clipper on the heels of event 2. Several GEFS members have a nice little thumping of snow on already frozen ground. Something the first two don't have. All in all nothing major but atleast something to snack on!
  24. fountainguy97
    These two storms washed out quickly but the pattern after is not the worst I've seen. I think we are going to battle La Nina background state pretty hard. We just have to get lucky with an ideally timed storm. This January is a certified torch running 8 degrees above my norm for Jan. Interesting how some winters the enso state is hardly felt in the pattern and then others it washes out everything. This year la Nina has fully taken over the US pattern. The DJF averages will probably come out pretty close to the typical la nina composites.
  25. fountainguy97
    Not a bad trend on GFS with the first system but temps are gross. No cold air in sight. I say its the "table setter" for the one behind. Which also is low on coolant lol. not much to hang our hats on with temps so marginal right now. We will need a nice bombing low to wrap cold air in.
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