Kevin Reilly

I think then we have achieved 20% converge even if zero is coming down here. However, it is nice to see the cumulonimbus clouds off in the distance especially off to the Lancaster area earlier and right now. Better luck tomorrow down this way. All in all, it is a good forecast even despite nothing in my back yard.

I had to give a hot dog for me because I am a weenie hearing this anything please even if it is little crumbs from a dying tropical system.

Current 95f DP 77 RH 53% feels like 110f

Ratings game my friend.... Rating game! On a side not the ratings game is a dangerous one though for the public when the big one doesn't come until it really comes in the future if you know what I mean.

Overall models in regard to track was excellent .... intensity forecast was okay just a bit off the charts Islands to Jamaica in regard to extreme intensity and how long it took to weaken down near Jamica and Grand Cayman.

Looks like a pretty broad circulation and open on the north and northeast side. In order for significant intensification, it would really need to tighten up which can happen which would be the big item to watch over the next 5-8 hours here. I think the top level here in regard to hurricane intensity at landfall is likely 90-100 mph low end is 75-85 but still would be pretty impactful especially since the circulation has kind of broaden outward a bit.

Which makes sense with the upper air low to the southwest of the center. I think last night and into this morning you could clearly see the SSE shear which would cause this elongation for now. How rapidly that upper air low gets out of the way or weakens and also the dry air evacuation will tell the story of how strong Beryl can get.

It is possible high pressure is building now right over top.

89.6f humidity 77% dewpoint 80f feels like 109f currently. I too have not mowed the grass in 4 weeks even after getting 2.00" of rain in 27 hours last week.

Yep, water vapor flow tells all. Our flow is coming right out of the west central Gulf of Mexico right up from Tropical Storm Beryl right to us. Now the Euro showed heavy rain this week from remnants of Beryl looking at the flow it is definitely plausible. The precipitable water right now is off the charts for us at the current time. Water Vapor Map trace the flow right to the Gulf and far southern states. Pennsylvania Water Vapor Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather

Right now, 88f feels like 109f humidity 80% dewpoint 80f my gauge is in the shade can this be correct? I mean I have never seen heat like this before this early in the morning.

Yep my low was 80 f cam down at 3:48 it was 80f with a dewpoint of 78f

Looks like quite a bit of SSE shear there is not much left almost looks like the system has split in two low level circulation has been taken away from the mid-level circulation.

Now with that said the Euro may also be indicating more favorable conditions for development as well.

The two main factors are how quickly does or will the upper air low in the western bay of Campeche get out of the way and can Beryl slow down and sort of get slung a bit to the WNW or even NW to slow and develop underneath an area of developing area of high pressure as the upper air low vacates west bound. I think in regards if Beryl can get itself together and strike as a Cat 1 to Cat 3 hurricane the odds are like 45% that it will and 55% that it won't so yea 50/50 at this point.

79f DP 74f low last night was 76f. Looks like we have a bit of activity coming in from the west moving due east hoping it stay together to give the garden a drink a bit we shall see. It does appear that it is weakening quite a bit.

Clearly looks like there was definite weakening also due to the proximity to the land mass of Jamaica. Last hour looking at the water vapor map there is a blow up on the southeast side where there was pretty much nothing just a bit ago. It will be interesting to see how Beryl fairs as it moves away from Jamaica. Grand Cayman outside of any shear and or dry air will have zero impact on Beryl.

The uplift on the mountains in the central and western part of Jamaica must be incredible right now. I know the mountains are further from the coast, but this has to have some effect on the overall circulation and structure inflow and outflow from the center to some degree. The flooding in the mountains is very likely really bad to catastrophic currently.

I will say that the center is definitely close enough for the circulation center to be disrupted by the high mountains of Jamaica.

Especially if it is moving as fast as it is right now.

Probably double that at least with upsloping over the mountains of Jamaica with a strong flow around the hurricane the lift will be insane especially if it slows down at all.

I would say looking at the shear ahead and the movement at a brisk 23 mph even at the Category 5 strength that Beryl has been at it will weaken fairly rapidly. Liken it to blowing a candle out. How quickly or slowly will certainly determine the impacts to both Jamica and the very vulnerable Grand Cayman. All interests in Jamica, Grand Cayman, and Play Del Carmen along with both Cozumel and Cancún in Mexico (all these areas big vacation and cruise areas) along with the Western Gulf Coast Mexico up to Louisiana need to monitor the future movements of Beryl.

pretty much done here just missing to my SSW and moving SE I would suspect this is pretty much the front moving on through going to end with 2.05" over past 24 hours perfect!

Dark again moderate rain with thunder 72f humidity 97% dewpoint 71

Partly sunny now thunder overhead and to the east and southeast a few drops of rain still picked up 1.33 during that batch. 0.67" last night plus our 1.33" we have 2.00" on the nose currently 71f humidity 96% dewpoint 70. Looks like a little line in Chester County developing and pushing east southeast. Should be interesting to see how that progresses. No damage or power loss here.