
wasnow215
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Posts posted by wasnow215
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2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:
AKQ going with 2-4" across the metro RIC, 1-3" just north.
1-3" for Hampton Roads once you get S and E of Williamsburg.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 325 PM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Increasing chances for winter precipitation and accumulating snow Friday night into Saturday. Confidence is growing for chances of wintry precip with the next low pressure system late Fri into Sat afternoon. The deep trough that has been over the area this week will move offshore with a low pressure forming near the Gulf Coast. This low will move along the SE coast Fri, and eventually move offshore of the area Sat, taking on a Miller A track. Models have increased confidence in timing, precip types, and amounts during the 12z suites. However, there is still some uncertainty in regards to location of the highest amounts, which will be dependent on the bands of snow north of frontogenesis. The NAM model shows a heavier band of snow over the metro RIC area overnight, while the GFS model depicts a heavier band a few hours after the NAM and more to the NE/Eastern Shore area. With this forecast package, as there is still some uncertainty, have broad-stroked with general amounts of 2-4" across the area. Wherever the heavier bands of snow end up, the snowfall totals are likely to be higher than 4". NE NC/Albemarle Sound will likely have warmer temps as a warm nose tries to push through the coastal area, preventing higher snowfall amounts. Expected totals for this area are around 1". NBM probs have increased for the likelihood of greater than 1" to 60-70% around the metro RVA area. Unfortunately, (or fortunately depending on your opinion of snow) this event isn`t looking like a pure snow event. The event will likely start off as all snow late Fri night. With the warm nose to the southeast of the region, a period of wintry mix is possible before turning into rain, especially for the southern region of the FA. All this being said, there are still details to be ironed out regarding the event which will have large impacts in terms of total accumulations. &&
I mentioned a couple days ago just how consistent most of the models have been with 2 to 4 inches. A little bit of waffling but really not much. Let's see what happens during the next 36 hours with the model cycles.
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Anybody have 6Z European model?
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GFS, ICON and NAM seems to be in that 2-4" range again -anyone have 6z Euro?
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6z runs much better seemingly for slow in our area
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It's the NAM at its worst range as precip arrives towards us but to me it looks "healthier" overall than 18z.
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Euro ensembles @RIC Airport good sir?
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3 minutes ago, chris624wx said:
It was looking good for Hampton Roads until it drove the low through Greenville, NC. Not what we want to see here.
Good hit for the interior though
Really warms too relatively speaking right at the end of the storm
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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:
At the gym. Yinz on your own for the gfs. Good luck
Daggone NY resolutions messin with the PBP! Hahaha
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Just really really seems like everything is converging for a 2-4" snow overnight Friday into Sat? Anyone say anything different right now?
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7 minutes ago, Ji said:
Canada looked promising but it got shredded like the eagles defense against Jayden
Or the Commandos run defense against EVERYONE!
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CMC looks decent
Edit-it ends up as weak sauce and NC gets decent snow as it passes to our south and east and OTS
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Looks similar to the ICON tho-warmer tho
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Maybe I'm being too simplistic but hour 78 looked a lot like the 0z Icon just out.
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Icon is a hit for Fri/Sat
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37 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:
18z EPS was slightly more bullish north and west, @Conway7305.
Word is all the ensembles have trended a little better the last three cycles
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Snowing lightly here in Moseley
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2 minutes ago, RVAman said:
4 hours without power now. Getting cold inside. No fireplace. May be time to put food outside.
That stinks man!
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5 minutes ago, Dick_LeBoof said:
12Z GFS has trended warmer than the previous 3 runs, but the moisture is certainly in the right place. I assume this would be a textbook Miller A evolution?
Latest EPS ensembles have the coastal low much further off the coast than the American solution. Will be interesting to see if the models begin to converge at all.
Given the arctic blast, I would be surprised to see us not have enough cold air for this event.
Your thoughts make a lot of sense thank you!
Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
Rootin for you and the rest of the Norfolk folk haha! Let's do this!