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wasnow215

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    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

    AKQ going with 2-4" across the metro RIC, 1-3" just north. 

    1-3" for Hampton Roads once you get S and E of Williamsburg.

      

    .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing chances for winter precipitation and accumulating snow
  Friday night into Saturday.

Confidence is growing for chances of wintry precip with the next low
pressure system late Fri into Sat afternoon. The deep trough that
has been over the area this week will move offshore with a low
pressure forming near the Gulf Coast. This low will move along the
SE coast Fri, and eventually move offshore of the area Sat, taking
on a Miller A track. Models have increased confidence in timing,
precip types, and amounts during the 12z suites. However, there is
still some uncertainty in regards to location of the highest
amounts, which will be dependent on the bands of snow north of
frontogenesis. The NAM model shows a heavier band of snow over the
metro RIC area overnight, while the GFS model depicts a heavier band
a few hours after the NAM and more to the NE/Eastern Shore area.
With this forecast package, as there is still some uncertainty, have
broad-stroked with general amounts of 2-4" across the area. Wherever
the heavier bands of snow end up, the snowfall totals are likely to
be higher than 4". NE NC/Albemarle Sound will likely have warmer
temps as a warm nose tries to push through the coastal area,
preventing higher snowfall amounts. Expected totals for this area
are around 1". NBM probs have increased for the likelihood of
greater than 1" to 60-70% around the metro RVA area.

Unfortunately, (or fortunately depending on your opinion of snow)
this event isn`t looking like a pure snow event. The event will
likely start off as all snow late Fri night. With the warm nose to
the southeast of the region, a period of wintry mix is possible
before turning into rain, especially for the southern region of the
FA. All this being said, there are still details to be ironed out
regarding the event which will have large impacts in terms of total
accumulations.

&&

    I mentioned a couple days ago just how consistent most of the models have been with 2 to 4 inches. A little bit of waffling but really not much. Let's see what happens during the next 36 hours with the model cycles.

    • Like 1

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Dick_LeBoof said:

    12Z GFS has trended warmer than the previous 3 runs, but the moisture is certainly in the right place.  I assume this would be a textbook Miller A evolution? 

    Latest EPS ensembles have the coastal low much further off the coast than the American solution.  Will be interesting to see if the models begin to converge at all.  

    Given the arctic blast, I would be surprised to see us not have enough cold air for this event. 

    Your thoughts make a lot of sense thank you!

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