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wasnow215

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Posts posted by wasnow215

    January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    All guidance has a shortwave moving through. Problem is downstream on gfs/euro is a shear factory. Icon is less suppressive and allows amplification. The icon isnt alone with having the shortwave but it is alone allowing the shortwave to amplify. If the gfs or euro trend less suppressive/sheared a shield of precip will start showing up more cohesive and larger. Or if the icon trends more suppressed/sheared it will start shrinking (or completely lose) the precip shield. Right now the majority says that the icon is handling the upper levels wrong. However, a few relatively small shifts on the euro or gfs and suddenly there's consensus on event.

    If you really want to get into this hobby I can't stress enough how important it is to learn 500mb height and vorticity panels. It's not as hard is it seems. If you just look at surface panels it can seem like models are terrible because they lose and discover storms with what seems like out of thin air. If you understand upper air charts you will grasp what is a good and bad setup regardless of what verbatim surface panels look like.

    Sincere question: You talk about reading the 500mb and Vort panels quite often and I know you’re right. Why can’t weather models be “programmed” to do the same to help with better surface output? Sorry if this is banter, I won’t ask follow up questions lol.

    January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, Danajames said:

    About the only thing on the GFS 1800 run was a clipper system by next Tuesday.  Nothing for the weekend.  And until I see otherwise, I'm not expecting anything.  Say what you want about the GFS but once it locks down on the 5 day period, it's very consistent and more often than not, pretty accurate.  Who knows, maybe something will magically appear by tomorrow or Wednesday but I'm not holding my breath.  Hell, I'd love to have a winter of nothing but energized Clipper systems.  At least you know they'll be snow. 

    GFS has been pretty poor this winter so far

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

    A significant change is coming no matter what. Of course if it doesnt immediately flipping to cold/snow the acknowledgement of a pattern change will be subjective.... lol. Model skill decreases greatly on the front side of changes and the upcoming period through the end of the month will be no different. Not sure about your area but the mid atlantic generally doesnt do well on the front side of changes towards a colder and blockier regime. The longer it lasts the chances for winter precip keep going up. 

    Will we flip to a classic big snow pattern before Feb? You can never be sure until it's happening. I'm forecasting and steep increase in lack of patience and steep decrease in post quality and critical thinking. 

    Everyone knows this I know, but this forum needs more “Chills” n “PSU’s”. Great stuff here.

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

    Huh?  I'm talking about the rain then big drop in temps to a Flash freeze.  THE MODLES for this area have yet to really show a chance for much snow for the weekend system. At least so far.. 

    Yeah I got that that’s why i said on another note. I was wondering if flash freeze also meant roads will get slick etc.

     

    In general just seems a lot of hyping and memes etc about this storm north of us on FB and Twitter etc and looks more wet than white for many.

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

    lost power here for about a 1/2 hour here in Glen Allen.  Sleet just picked back up also..

    Surprised no talk of a flash freeze tonight from the local stations and more pos power outages.

    cant see any way of how it wont be a rough morning in many spots in the early morning .

    Power back on here too. Was about to head to Bdubs to watch Birds game. Glad it’s back on!

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, eaglesin2011 said:

    Of course.. but prob could fit half the stadium with Eagles fans in LA.. 

    And they will! I was at the game in London. Eagles fans took over of course. Probably 70/30 for a Jville “home game”. They had all the bells and whistles as the home team but Eagles fans made it a home game in UK.

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

    yeah.. I can see that by looking at the radar.. The mix line inches even closer at  that hour.. ha Owell.. back to the football games for awhile.. cant decide if I want the Rams or the Cowgirls to win.. ha

    Weird as Eagles fans. I kind of want to play Dal for revenge IF we beat Saints, but find myself rooting against them. I don’t like the Rams either lol.

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