wasnow215

7 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

And this is why I don’t post in the main thread. Made a comment about liking the EURO run for us and they respond with it being a NOVA special. Seriously!!??

I got your back over there.

17 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

Even down here in RIC we’ll take that

12/9/18 let’s go!!

1 minute ago, RVASnowLover said:

18z euro looked a little better. It looks likes it’s trying to give us something big. I would take 6-8 though 

Here it is. Storm sets up just a tad more southeast and it’s beyond game on. But yeah 6-8” is excellent.

11 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

^^NAM 18Z - why are these so much different?

Sleet mix possibly?

NAM that’s nice!! (18z)

2 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

There’s a lot of (ghost?) rain afterwards... but need to look at it more closely.

It’s a solid hit again tho before that for RVA. I’m hoping for 4-6” then dry slot instead of rain. Then maybe a little retrograde snow at the end. 

Canadian was “Euro-esque”. Much better than the GFS. 

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Correcting.....Euro is the only model with a clean and near perfect phase and timing. No one will say it but the Euro is on an Island in that regard.

Thank you! Imo from reading all the different met comments, PSU etc, seems like GFS solution isn’t picking up on the CAD well. 

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

GFS and Euro are worlds apart. This close in, one will bust embarrassingly. 

Please correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems like more of the other models support the Euro, and GFS has little support from the other models at this point.  

Just now, RVASnowLover said:

00z GFS was bad. Mainly rain, maybe a little snow at the beginning. Again, the primary  goes all the way into Ohio.

Look at hour 78 compared with 84 from 18z. It’s a step. Again it’s SO different than the other models. Something has to give and I have a hard time believing it’s going to be all the other ones.

38° here in Glen Allen. Plenty cold soon enough.  

2 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

Yeah for Sun/Monday - essentially ends precipitation Sunday evening 7pm with just about all rain.  

Agreed but again it’s been bad the whole time. Is there a GFS run the last 6 runs that has shown good snow for RVA for Sun/Mon? But yes would want to see it come aboard fairly soon. 

Just now, Sernest14 said:

Ooof - 18Z GFS is baaad

 

You mean for Sun/Mon. It’s not bad for overnight tonight and it’s been bad pretty much the whole time for Sun/Mon. Again GFS vs Euro at 96-120 hours? I wouldn’t bet against Euro. I think the GFS is missing something but we will know soon enough huh?

I think the chances of good snow are about 50% right now for Sun into Tue. I don’t think it’s fair to rule out euro because GFS is showing warmer temperatures.

1 minute ago, Quasievil said:

GFS is a hot steaming pile of garbage. See y'all tomorrow.

Trended slightly south. It will line up with the King soon enough.

6 minutes ago, Inudaw said:

Nam says its out still for the Wednesday Night/Thursday event.  RGEM says its game for a little taste of snow.    Icon has a little snow too.    Should seem some flakes off chance to beat are highest snow of 1.0" for the season?    Maybe.. still not sold. 

1.4” book it. Lol

And still snowing...

2 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

The NAM doesn’t even get precip north of the VA border 

GFS was decent though.

1 hour ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Yeah, let's pretend we never saw this..

5 days out still lol

There will be a banquet in honor of King Euro Friday night. Order from your favorite restaurant and have it delivered to stay safe haha, but we MUST keep THE KING happy going into the weekend!!

Canadian impressive for snow next Sunday (late) into Tuesday. Hopefully one of these works out.

I know we are still over three days away, and I am consistently a positive person when it comes to possible winter weather, but the trends are not good. 12z GFS is a total miss again. Looks like about a 10% chance that we see an inch of snow out of this right now Thursday morning. 

Thinking of the Phil Collins gem this morning “I Missed Again”.

1 minute ago, RVASnowLover said:

South trend happening? 

I was just going to remark about that. It looks like from looking at the 12 Z models so far and going back 24 hours it is trending south. Lots of talk about that on the main mid Lantic thread. We don’t want to trend much more south or else it’ll lack precipitation for RVA. 

6 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Looks like a model shift south with more of a block coming down close to the lakes.

 

 

Yeah better transition Thursday am 

22 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

Absolute disaster. Man this winter is tough business.

The last 2 winters actually.