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wasnow215

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    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, eaglesin2011 said:

    Yeah still early in this storm I'm in glen allen /295 

    Car icy but treated sidewalk is fine.

    Main roads fine of course could be that occasional  icy spot.

    Trees look to be main issue some seem ok other that had more snow pack are stating to be weighed down.

    To me tonight when temp drops again are going to be the key timeframe before the warm up again tomorrow 

     

    Agreed… I’m also in Glen Allen, near Staples Mill Rd., and the 295 entrance.Agreed… I’m also in Glen Allen, near Staples Mill Rd., and the 295 entrance/exits.

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, cyclogenesis said:

    February 12, 2021

    this Friday afternoon

    510 PM EST

     

    Quite an interesting event coming up!!  Here's what the latest forecast models from Friday show:

    Both of the higher definition forecast models indicate this SHOULD remain mostly a FREEZING RAIN event, in their hour-by-hour indications.

    This morning's NAM MOS vs. GFS MOS had a discrepancy in their Saturday afternoon temperatures, whereby Nam kept FREEZING TEMPS at 32°, and GFS MOS went ABOVE freezing to 33° at 1 PM onward in Richmond.  

    HOWEVER.... newest GFS LAMP guidance from 21Z this afternoon is REVISING these hour-by-hour Saturday AFTERNOON temperatures DOWNWARD, indicating a temperature between 30° - 32° from 7 AM to 4 PM Saturday, through the afternoon.

    Looking at the forecast precipitation TYPE.... All models I reviewed are unanimous at pointing towards freezing rain, and ICING for the Richmond area.  I do think there will be some periods of SLEET or ice pellets mixed in, and in any outlying areas, where temperatures hover at 33°, then that will yield a cold rain, at a surface temp of 33°, and above.

    The amounts rendered are the following:

    FREEZING RAIN / ICE amounts for Richmond --

    HRRR --  18Z Fri fcst iteration -->>  0.31" of ice, (freezing rain).  TIMING  3 AM Saturday -- 7 PM Saturday night

    GFS -- 12Z Fri. fcst -->>  0.46" of ice; freezing rain ;  Timing  3 AM Saturday thru 10 PM Saturday night

    GFS --  18Z Fri. fcst -->>  0.26" of ice; freezing rain

    WRF --  12Z Fri. fcst -->>  0.56" of ice; freezing rain ; TIMING  4 AM Saturday -- 9 PM Saturday night.

    NAM --  12z Fri. fcst -->>  0.37" of ice; freezing rain;  TIMING 1 AM Saturday -- 7 AM Sunday.   (That's stretching it!)

    NAM -- 18z Fri. fcst -->>  0.44" of ice, freezing rain

     

    This yields an AVERAGE consensus of:  0.4"  (4/10").  That is significant icing which will topple trees & tree branches, and cause power lines to sag.  It is also enough significant ICING to completely CRIPPLE & DISABLE the entire road infrastructure, both secondary roads and primary roads.  I can't emphasize enough to STAY OFF the MOTORWAYS, and avoid driving, starting late tonight, through all of Saturday, Saturday night & Sunday morning.

     

    The fortunate GOOD news out of this is that WIND SPEED forecasts are expected to REMAIN BELOW 15 mph.

    On the ice damage index, very damaging ice storms occur when WIND SPEEDS GET OVER 15 mph, and winds are forecast to stay below that.

     

    Not to let your guard down, though, because lessons learned from the Dallas interstate 75 -100 car pile-up occurred in only light icing.  When I checked back at all the observations at the 3 airports in Dallas - Ft. Worth, Dallas Love Field's ICE ACCRETION sensor ONLY RECORDED just 0.08" of ice accumulation ; LESS than 1/10", but still tragedy of lost control of vehicles occurred so early in the morning on a bridge pitched at a slight decline was enough to send chaos through the air.  Also, yesterday, storm reports in Central Texas near Austin, during their ice storm showed surrounding communities of 40,000 left with NO POWER, when icing of 1/4" to 1/2" was encountered yesterday there.

    So now, just think about the STEEP & ARCHED curvature to the infrastructure INSIDE the Richmond city limits on Interstates 64 and 95.  Everyone should AVOID travelling on the roads, period.  Just think of that infamous "stay-at-home" order you'd seen issued a little less than a year ago, and let this ICING event from yesterday in Dallas, be a reminder for tomorrow, in Richmond & surround areas, to STAY OFF THE ROADS altogether, from EARLY Saturday morning, all day Saturday, Saturday night & Sunday morning.

    Bridges, hills & curves on the roads are especially dangerous, and Richmond's got plenty of them.  Just stay at home and don't drive, from Saturday morning through Sunday morning.

     

    How to inspect the icing??   Go look at THIN tree branches, and feel for the icing.  It should be SLICK.  The tree branches will SQUEAK in the wind or as you pull on them.  Also, chain link fences & antennas on vehicles are other good places to inspect icing.  Many vehicles on their undersides, and on SIDE MIRRORS will often show hanging icicles.  

     

    Here are the corresponding attachments that supplement this writing, supporting the ICING AMOUNT TOTALS....

     

    --  cyclogenesis

     

    Freezing Rain vs. Rain environment Sat. PM, ARW.JPG

    HRRR fcst for Freezing Rain Amounts, from 18Z Fri, for RIC.JPG

    GFS LAMP.JPG

    Ice Damage Index.JPG

    WRF fcst freezing rain amounts, from 12Z Fri.JPG

    I remember living in NYC I believe it was 1994 and even tho temps rose above 32° it took awhile for the freezing rain to become “rain” on the actual surfaces because it was landing on ice that had already accumulated. So I think it may take a little while on Sunday to get back to normal even if temps go 33° or 34°.

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, RVASnowLover said:

    I read that too and it confused me. Not sure what data he’s looking at. Almost all the short range models are showing at least .25 of ice 

    The guy ends up being like some weird mad scientist or something sometimes. He feels like he got burned by the European and other models in Europe the last couple weeks so now he just thinks everything is a nonevent. It’s very strange. 

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

    3K nam with more snow than it had at 12z

    So did 12k -18z NAM 10:1 as shown.

    Now… I tend to look at  "positive snow depth change" because it's more conservative and generally more accurate. It has 3" to maybe 4". However if you look at 18 Z NAM run from last night It had South Jersey at 3" on positive depth also but 4-6" on 10:1. I have family there and they were measuring 5 to 6 inches in Atlantic County and Cape May County this morning. Just an observation.

    9E9AB283-AFFE-4C1C-B021-9C40FEE6C8E0.jpeg

    • Like 1
    • Weenie 1

    February 10-12 event obs

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

    The HRRR and what else? It looks far less impressive than it did even 2 days ago. That’s why the dropped the watches for 5+ and didn’t issue warnings for anywhere outside of the WV mountains. Advisories for Max 2” snow and a ton of slop isn’t exactly something to get giddy about, but I digress.  Here’s the forecast for Richmond proper. Models outside of the HRRR don’t scream 5-10” of snow to me  

    This Afternoon
    Rain. High near 39. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. 
    Tonight
    Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 3am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow between 3am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 29. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. 
    Friday
    Freezing rain, mainly before 10am. High near 32. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. 
    Friday Night
    A chance of freezing rain before 3am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected. 
    Saturday
    Freezing rain and sleet before 8am, then freezing rain between 8am and 9am, then freezing rain and sleet after 9am. High near 31. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

    For pretty much every midday model run snow totals have increased compared to the last few runs before 12z. Again it won’t approach 10 inches but where he had the “bull’s-eye” it will be 3 to 6 probably.

    • Like 4

    February 10-12 event obs

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

    “Wave 2” is dying a slow death on models. Wonder how DT is feeling looking at guidance this AM. He get rid of his 10” in Richmond idea yet :lol:

    Actually wave 2 from 12Z on pretty much every model is better in the area he had 10” than it was last night and 6z today. Not  10” and it never was, but 3-5” possibly after going all the way down to 1-2” in that “bullseye”.

    • Like 1

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

    With mixing at times and temps an issue at the beginning I think looking at the models that have “total positive snow depth“ is smarter to look at rather than 10:1. So I think to two MAYBE 4 inches (northwest of 95) is possible.

    Here is an interesting note however regarding the different models.
     

    The NAM, the RGEM And a few other short term models handled the snow that fell in SNJ n E PA well last night into today with 10:1 ratios. Showed 3-6” and they got 3-6”. However they had pure snow and not mixing or sleet etc. So maybe 4 inches is possible here with what the short term models are showing this morning.

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