wasnow215

From Raleigh Wx

Just now, eaglesin2011 said:

I dunno looking like its gonna be some sort or snow to rain back to snow sort of storm for us.

You know how that turns out here most of the time its allot of sleet that normaly isn't forecast...

Gonna need the perfect set up to make it historic in this area... 

I'm  expecting a mix bag at this point...

Agreed. And possible freezing rain also. Look at those winds tho. We don’t want freezing rain w gusts to 45-50. Need to get inside of 72 hours to really have a better idea. 

12z GFS is fully back on board for next Thursday for RVA.

13 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

Just dreading the possible ticks north. It will probably happen but how far north 

Need it to go ENE if it’s gonna move north. May not have as much qpf in RVA if that occurs, but at least it would stay mostly snow.

Just to have 12z Euro show good snow followed by 18z GFS show historic snow is at least encouraging after pretty much being snowless in RVA since 2019.

Just now, Rhino16 said:

18z was good.

Yeah it was

12z Euro AND latest 0z GFS showing some real potential in the 7—10 day and for GFS beyond that. 

I think we see our first inch of snow. 

6z GFS (1st pic) just now definitely now in line with Euro (this graphic 0z latest run-2nd pic). Let’s do this.

Just now, RVASnowLover said:

With Isaias and the storms last night it's been a pretty wet week. 

Maybe more tonight 

Just now, Rhino16 said:

More rain coming to the area. There’s been a storm near Highland Springs that hasn’t moved in awhile, looks to have heavy rain. Wonder how much it has rained over there.

Buddy of mine lives there. About 2 inches. 

Also shows you just how unreliable the euro gust feature really is. Not even close. At least so far.

19 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

00Z HRRR has RVA getting around 6"

Wow! And now with a healthy eyewall and a strengthening storm, could be a rough go in RVA.

Some nice appetizers for the MEAL tomorrow lol. 

36 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

JustIn Berk posted this evening an update basically saying some of the modeling shows less rain but he doesn’t like to make “abrupt” changes to the forecast. I guess he hasn’t been following much the last 48 hours 

Not for Baltimore area but 18z GFS shows a few inches of rain again for DC southward. Maybe that’s part of what he’s saying. 

Anyone counting on rain through Wednesday morning now at least for gardens/outdoor plants/lawn better think again for our area. Looks like any significant rain holds off until Wednesday/Thursday now. 

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Normally a south wind would be helpful - but there's no warm air south of us to advect in. Dews look okay at least...

Do you think Richmond is still in the game? Capes look good from 3k nam 12z but not sure if other factors are there.

2 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Did I miss anything between the time I woke up at 6:45, (No strong rain yet from what I can remember) to 7:30ish? It’s been pretty much a rain shower here so far from what I can tell. No thunder.

So far nothing. Rain. There was a STW to the west (Oilville, Powhatan) but it had expired.

Looks like the day one enhanced remained largely unchanged from yesterday’s day 2? And can someone post the tornado prob map from SPC plz? Day 1 today. 

Just now, canderson said:

The NAM makes no sense imo given this setup, esp DC south. 

I thought the same thing. Was waiting for a met to say it. I mean a huge step back, but the 12k did not take a huge step back. 

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Really?

Straight line wind gusts are still pretty potent 3k Nam.

3k Nam showing the higher capes almost vanish. Significantly lower.

24 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

I’m here. I don’t quite remember the last time they’ve used wording like this... They only guess I would have is when the remnants of that tropical storm came through last fall...

Agreed. Even the straight line winds pretty impressive. 

Would love to here from some professionals specifically talk about RVA. Just following SPC stuff right now and all the really good folks on the DC severe thread. 

Where ya at Richmond peeps?? Haha. Somethin big seems to be brewin.