GaWx

The tropics look like they may get active again in just over a week. If so, that would mean the quiet period would end up under 2 weeks long. Not long at all unfortunately.

The SE had one notably cold week in early to mid-March largely attributed to the -NAO/-AO caused by the 2/16/23 major SSW. The -NAO started 2/26 and the -AO started 3/4. The cold took its sweet time to get here due to the stubborn RNA and was also shortlived. But it still got here within 3 weeks.

But the CONUS has already had 2 H landfalls and it’s still pretty early. That’s pretty rare for this early. Since 1950 only 2020, 2005, 2004, 1986, 1985, and 1959 had 2+ CONUS H landfalls by Aug 31st.

Regarding high solar/W for all ENSO, there are 9 winters since 1948 as I listed earlier today. Of those nine, seven had at least one major SSW and two of those seven had two: 57-8: 1/31 59-60: 1/17 78-9: 2/22 80-1: 2/6 and 3/4 90-1: none listed 99-00: 3/20 01-02: 12/31 and 2/18 13-14: none listed 22-23: 2/16

On what are you basing it taking at least 1-2 months for blocking pattern to come after a major SSW? Per @Stormchaserchuck1 it takes less time especially later in the season.

It’s crucial what years Joe is including. I see that his high solar/W map has a BN SE….hmm. Since 1948 there are only two Niña/W winters with high solar (though not necessarily right at max): 99-00 (Roni -1.7)(NN SE) and 22-3 (Roni -0.8)(warm SE). Also, both had strong -PDO. Thus, these are the 2 best analogs for QBO/solar. But Joe undoubtedly included others in his set because those two alone averaged mild in SE. The other high solar/W have these Roni’s/PDO: 57-8: +2.0/+ terrible analog/very cold SE 59-60: 0/+ poor/cool SE 78-9: +0.2/mod - fair at best/cool SE 80-1: 0/+ poor/cool SE 90-1: +0.6/strong - fair at best/warm SE 01-02: -0.2/strong - pretty good/mild SE 13-14: -0.5/mod - pretty good/cool SE So, best analogs: 1999-0, 2022-3 Next best analogs: 2001-2, 2013-4 No telling what of these Joe included. He may have included ~all of these to come up with his high solar/W, which if so would imho be misleading for 2024-5 forecasting. With the cool El Ninoish look in the SE on his map, I’m suspecting he’s also including some or all of 57-8, 59-60, 78-9, and 13-4. The only of those I’d consider a decent analog is 13-4. @40/70 Benchmark

GT!!!!! Wooooo! Ooops, wx thread…PC and warm.

The 6Z Euro-AIFS has a TC that originates from a TCG in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands ~Sept 2nd. This makes it the 21st run in a row with a TCG near the Leewards ~9/2. This goes all of the way back to the 6Z 8/19 run! You can still see all of these runs on Tropical Tidbits.

Thanks. JB putting a lot of weight on this article isn’t surprising because it fits his narrative of cooling oceans after a drop in underwater seismic levels. 1. But and this isn’t directed at you: who’s Joshua Hawkins? Not a met/climatologist: “Josh Hawkins has been writing for over a decade, covering science, gaming, and tech culture. He also is a top-rated product reviewer with experience in extensively researched product comparisons, headphones, and gaming devices. Whenever he isn’t busy writing about tech or gadgets, he can usually be found enjoying a new world in a video game, or tinkering with something on his computer.” https://bgr.com/author/joshua-hawkins/ 2. Hawkins says this: “The Atlantic Ocean is cooling at an exponential rate, and nobody is sure why. It's been more than a year of record-high global sea temperatures, including being close to the collapse of the AMOC. Despite those troubles, though, the Atlantic is now experiencing something quite baffling-temperatures are cooling, and scientists are scrambling to figure out what's going on.” Where is the evidence that the Atlantic is cooling at an exponential rate? Again, not directed at you, roardog.

JB has been harping on a significant cooling of oceans overall in recent months. He’s implying this is due to reduced underwater seismic activity and is thus very excited. But the problem I have is finding this cooldown! I’m still seeing near record warmth in many areas. Thus I’m confused. Does anyone here know about a significant worldwide averaged ocean cooling? If so please post any links.

Thanks for pointing this out. By the way, note that same warm anom spot that’s on most of the WB CFS over N Mich/N L Mich (+1C) while just 200 mi S (where it is almost always much colder on these WB CFS) it is -7C. So, a whopping 8C difference! And then note the cold to the N of the warm spot. Like clockwork. Keep in mind that the bogus map is merely a control run. To compare, here’s a much more believable Jan CFS map from TT, the avg of the last 12 runs:

The dewpoints well down into the 60s along with pretty brisk NE winds and afternoon temps in the 80s here the last couple of days have been refreshing for summer!

QBO/solar 1950-1 slight E/moderate solar ~3 yrs after prior peak 1961-2 slight W/moderate solar ~4 hrs after prior peak

What do you mean by “a bit more aggressive”?

I don’t have much to go on though I did see this at another BB fwiw: “If I’m being honest, the only model I have much trust in right now is the AI-EURO. Mainly because it’s gotten every storm this season (was a bit slow with Debby but caught on) and caught on 10-14 days out.”

Followup showing that this WxBell CFS map was as expected significantly too cool at DC for 8/16-20: As the above WxBell map for 8/16-20 shows, it had DC and vicinity at 6.5 F BN. It ended up verifying at only 0.7/1.8 F BN at IAD/DCA, which is close to what the DCA NWS had predicted: 1. IAD: actual mean/1991-2020 normal mean 8/16: 75/76 8/17: 78.5/76 8/18: 80/76 8/19: 76/75.5 8/20: 66/75.5 So, 8/16-20: 75.1/75.8 Thus IAD verified at only 0.7 F BN vs WB forecasted ~6.5 F BN. https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLWX/2408170524.cdus41.IAD.html ————————— 2. DCA: actual mean/1991-2020 normal mean 8/16: 79.5/79.5 8/17: 79/79.5 8/18: 80/79.5 8/19: 80.5/79.5 8/20: 69.5/79.5 So, 8/16-20: 77.7/79.5 Thus IAD verified at only 1.8 F BN vs WB forecasted ~6.5 F BN. https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLWX/2408170524.cdus41.DCA.html This adds to the evidence that WxBell CFS maps have significant flaws in their map generating algorithms as TT CFS maps weren’t nearly as cool. @donsutherland1

The 6Z Euro-AIFS has a TC that originates from a TCG in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands ~Sept 2nd. This makes it the 17th run in a row with a TCG near the Leewards ~9/2. This goes all of the way back to the 6Z 8/19 run! You can still see all of these runs on Tropical Tidbits

I’d say the 18Z is about the most active GEFS for early Sep yet though not really that active for late Aug as there were a number of runs more active for then awhile back. **Corrected from 12Z to 18Z

The 12Z AI-Euro is the 14th run in a row with TCG near the Leewards ~9/2. It then recurves near 70W fwiw.

12Z Euro has no TC. But per last 13 Euro AIFS runs the crucial period for TCG may be centered around Sep 2nd, just beyond the 12Z Euro 240.

Long range GFS, whether active or not, has low statistical credibility. I prefer to look at GEFS/EPS for trends toward either more or less activity. Granted I did post about the late portion of the Euro-AIFS but that was because the last 13 runs have had a similar solution. Sort of its own 13 run ensemble in a sense.

Fwiw and for the record the 6Z Euro AIFS is the 13th run in a row (back to the 6Z 8/19 run) with a TCG in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands ~Sept 2nd.

Good question. My understanding is (or at least the way I use it) that the required +/- 0.5C for 5 consecutive trimonthly periods is just for whether or not an event is Nino, neutral, or Nina based on ONI. However, because RONI is a pretty new concept and has yet to be used for official classifications, it’s going to be hard (if not impossible) to find anything about requiring 5 consecutive RONI for classifying. But I think it makes perfect sense to use RONI that way. I don’t see why not.

Very well thought out! Thanks for posting this. With my being in a vulnerable location, I hope you’re wrong with the very active peak or if not that people aren’t too badly impacted during the peak. I’d love for the peak to be like 2010. This is a minor point but I do want to point out that 2024 is 3rd highest of satellite era with 1980 also being higher as of today. The graph you show goes back only to 1991. That’s why it shows 2024 as 2nd highest. But since you mentioned 2nd highest of satellite era, I thought I should mention this.

- I believe that Oct is the most dangerous month for a direct landfall on the Gulf coast of FL. - Up here in E GA, Matthew in Oct of 2016 was easily the worst since at least David (1979). - Hazel in Oct of 1954 was one of worst ever in NC/SC and then was a monster well inland in much of E US - Oct of 1898 was another really bad H (in GA and far N FL)