GaWx

What exactly is that? It isn’t EPO, itself, as one can see just looking at Sept and Oct of 2024. This monthly table has a near record strong negative for Sep of -2.75 (2nd lowest to April of 1968’s -2.88) even though the dailies show that they were solidly positive. Also, this has Aug of 2024 way down at -2.62 despite the dailies averaging neutral.

Ray, Unfortunately I don’t have a source for monthly EPO. To get any monthly I literally have to calculate them based on these dailies. Because that’s very tedious/time consuming, I rarely have done that. More often I’ll instead roughly estimate them or better yet just count days over or under a certain level because it is quicker and still telling.

I agree that E US cold is still clearly coming for 11/21 through early 11/24. But late 11/24-11/27 has warmed considerably in the E US from how it looked just 4 days ago as I’ve been showing via the HDD graphs. So, the upcoming cold period is now looking to be shorter vs how it appeared 4 days ago. Now we look ahead to a second potential cold period in very early Dec. Will it also diminish or shorten like often occurs in the E US and did occur for 11/24-7? Or will it fully verify this time? We’ll see. By the way, NG has turned out somewhat lower than it was as I was guessing would occur at about this time (due to the models warming on and near 11/26) since I noted it late last night fwiw. We’ll see what occurs the rest of today.

This is illustrative of how I like to describe the tendency of model/ensemble means to often (though of course not nearly always as I keep emphasizing as these are general tendencies (cold bias) rather than absolutes) show cold being delayed: it’s often like a mirage. Instead of fake water, it is fake blue/cold. When this occurs it will look cold at two weeks out and as that period gets closer the cold often wanes and may never materialize for that same period/could even turn warm/red like Nov 26th has dramatically already done. In this case (Dec 3rd), is it the common fake blue like Nov 26th in retrospect appears to have been, will it end up real this time, or something in between? The cold bias says better chance cold wanes rather than intensifies and of course it could remain about the same.

Looking at TT EPS at H5 and 2M: one can see the huge difference between the 0Z 11/14 run and the 12Z 11/17 run on 11/26: 1) a) 0Z 11/14 EPS for 11/26 at H5: conducive H5 flow allowing CDN air to dominate E US 1) b) 0Z 11/14 EPS for 11/26 at 2m: BN dominates east resulting in 18 US HDD Now compare those to the 11/17 12Z EPS 2) a) 12Z 11/17 EPS for 11/26 @H5: sig. SE ridge, which has often been underplayed late in week 2 and beyond for 7-8 years and then appears as get closer in: 2) b) 12Z 11/17 EPS for 11/26 @2m: AN instead of BN dominates east resulting in a mere 12 instead of 18 HDD with that near the normal for way back on 11/10:

AAM looks solidly Ninoish starting in ~1 week as of this CFS run of 2 days ago fwiw. Will this verify? Warning: these graphs are from the very unreliable 4 member CFS ensemble (you know, the model with the very unrealistic record obliterating plunge in Nino 3.4 by next month) and they are very jumpy/fickle! Look how much they changed from just 4 days prior (2nd image). So, be careful not to read too much into this: Prior run wasn’t as solidly Ninoish:

Here’s a better illustration of a main reason why NG has been up this evening, which is interesting: it is because the 12Z 11/17 EPS (purple) is coldest at the end, Dec 1st, with 20.4 HDD and rising. However, keep in mind that 11/23-7 total HDD are down to only 71 vs 89.5 on the Thu 11/14 0Z run, when NG was about where it has been this evening. Check out 11/26: it’s only at 12 on the 11/17 12Z, which is a whopping 6 BN and the normal for 11/10, 16 days earlier. On the 11/14 0Z, it was way up at 18.1 or near normal! This is the nature of these cold biases. They’ll often be too cold late in week 2 and then get back to reality and warm up as those days get closer. Back on 11/14, 11/23-27 were out 9-13 days. Now that these days are only out 6-10, they’ve warmed substantially. They don’t always do that, of course. But they tend to do that more than the opposite (nature of cold bias). If I were a betting man, I’d bet based on the cold bias that Dec 1st will end up verifying lower than 20 HDD. Of course it may not but the odds favor that. Also, even though I’m not trading commodities, I’m guessing that NG will be lower than it is now by morning. That’s partially because 11/23-7 are so much warmer than they were as of 3 days ago. But that’s just a guess. If the overnight GEFS/EPS runs turn out cold enough especially late, NG probably wouldn’t turn down in the morning and may even rise further.

The last few advisories have been saying isolated total amounts in N Honduras up to 40”!! RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as 40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Dan, why? All mkts are manipulated and NG is no exception. However, despite this, I’ve found NG current price trends to be a good barometer of days 10-15 of ensemble model E US temperature trends.

NG price this evening is up 4% likely due to the end of the 12Z GEFS and EPS being colder than how the late in the run 12Z runs looked Fri/BN in the E US, where NG is most heavily used in cold season. This negates the price drop of Thursday that was largely due to warmer models that day.

1. Neither should be considered anywhere near gospel out at hour 360 of even the ensemble means as they are typically of pretty low confidence though they’re much better than their respective operationals. 2. Due to cold bias of ensemble means that has existed for years, especially that far out, quite possibly due to the very warm W Pacific, warm solutions have a somewhat better chance to verify closely than cold solutions. 3. As I assume you and many of the members know, cold bias doesn’t at all mean always too cold or anywhere near always. Sometimes they can be either too warm or about right. But overall, too cold is typically more common than too warm (definition of cold bias). 4. Be that as it may, I’ve also noticed the model trend for the start of Dec has turned colder. But again, it remains to be seen whether or not these colder solutions will actually verify closely. Keep in mind that much earlier in the forecast period (11/23-7) that the EPS warmed considerably from an avg of +0.5 AN HDD per US pop weights to 2.5 HDD BN.

Thanks for posting. I hope your hunches are wrong and that we get a much quieter season. Interestingly, I saw this exact post at another BB but I don’t see it anymore for some reason.

For the period Sept 1st through Nov 14th back to 1948, 2024 is tied with 2021 for the fewest -EPO (sub -50) days with just 3: Lowest # of sub -50 EPO days 9/1-11/14 back to 1948 (7 or fewer): 2024: 3 2021: 3 2011: 4 1994: 4 1958: 4 1948: 4 1968: 5 I didn’t see any notable correlation to # of sub -50 days one way or the other in the subsequent respective winters, however. https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

How are the autumn leaves looking in N GA and the W Carolinas? Are they running way behind? Have they hit peak yet?

So based on my prior post: IF the CFS cooling in Nino 3.4 from Nov to Dec were to somehow verify closely, it would more than double the old record cooling from Nov to Dec back to 1950 and more than triple the strongest forecasted cooling of any other model (JMA’s 0.3)! For some reason I feel CFS will bust very badly but we’ll see. In light of this likely upcoming huge bust in Nino 3.4, how much weight should be put on the CFS current winter forecast for the E US?

What’s the deal with the latest CFS forecasted record rate of cooling from Nov to Dec in Nino 3.4? The latest CFS mean is forecasting a record shattering cooling of 1.0 to -1.2: Compare the CFS to these latest runs for Nov to Dec: -BoM: no cooling/remain at -0.2 -Euro: 0.25 cooling to -0.5 -JMA: 0.3 cooling to -0.6 -MeteoFrance: 0.2 cooling to -0.45 -UKMET: 0.2 cooling to -0.8 So, CFS’ cooling of 1.0 from Nov to Dec compares to a range of only 0.0 to 0.3 for the latest run of the other five models. The record ONI based cooling from Nov to Dec back to 1950 is only 0.45 (1951) followed by 0.41 (1954) and 0.40 (2008 and 2012)! The record warming from Nov to Dec is only 0.43 (1991). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

I don’t know. It’s way too early for any forecaster to even try to determine that.

Yes, 2004 and 1969 were both weak El Niño with active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

In general terms El Niño is correlated with less ACE than non-Nino. But if it’s weak, there’s typically less of a reduction. Furthermore, this is only a tendency. For example, look at 2023 for a major exception due to record high Atlantic SSTs.

1. On RONI basis, which is much more telling of late, 2023 peaked at only +1.50 vs 2015-6 at +2.37, 1997-8 at +2.38, 1982-3 at +2.53, 1972-3 at +2.27, and 1965-6 at +2.04. So, on that basis, 2023 doesn’t belong with the other 5. 2. Per RONI 1963-4 peaked at +1.25, not that much weaker than 2023, and went Nino, Niña, Nino. 3. Per Webb, 1902-3 peaked a bit stronger than 2023 (+1.8) and went Nino, Niña, Nino. 4. Per Webb 1885-6 peaked at +1.3, not that much weaker than 2023 and went Nino, Niña, Nino. So, I maintain that a Nino in 2025-6 wouldn’t be an all that rare occurrence. I think the previously stated rareness is being overblown.

Regarding the bolded: -2004,5,6 was Nino, Niña, Nino -1963,4,5 was the same -1923,4,5 “ “ -1902,3,4 “ “ -1885,6,7 “ “ -Since 1851 there were 19 cases of Nino to Niña. Out of these 19, 5 ended up Nino to Niña to Nino. -So, they’re not as rare as one might think. -Last 3 runs of CANSIPS have been showing Modoki Nino next summer fwiw.

1. If this leads to <3” of SN in Dec at NYC, look for Jan+ SN to likely be solidly BN per bluewave’s stats. 2. I just looked at the comparison of US HDDs for 11/23-27 on the 0Z 11/14 EPS and the same on both the 12Z 11/15 and 0Z 11/16 runs. The warming was strong as it went from an average of 0.5 AN HDDs to 3+ BN HDDs! Whereas the 0Z 11/14 run had 4 days with AN HDDs, the last 2 runs had no days like that! Is this a sign of what’s to come this winter on the EPS? Are the various ensembles going to once again be cold biased much of the time like has been the case for much of the last 7-8 years?

Euro Weeklies mean over last couple of days has reverted back to a strong SPV throughout Dec: today’s is as strong as any run yet

Flooding in Honduras from Tropical Storm Sara on November 15, 2024 (CREDIT: CNN) https://www.kadn.com/weather/hurricane/tropical-storm-sara-meanders-near-northern-honduras-after-landfall/article_365d0808-9dbc-51d7-90af-7c76b565b5c9.html