GaWx

Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1220 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. A non-tropical area of low pressure located about 700 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing gale-force winds and a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Additional development of this low is not expected as it moves northward to northwestward into an environment of strong upper-level winds and dry air tonight and Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2025, and Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the remainder of the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Lows are forecasted to get down into the low 40s way down in Hogtown the next two nights as well as at least one more night late week. Edit: They made it down to 39! @pcbjr

“Erin go bragh” from the location of the South’s biggest St. Patrick’s Day celebration. So, everything greened up quickly today. A windy, cool, and sunny St. Patrick’s Day here as it’s only 62.9 here now.

I vote with you to pin this one and absolutely agree with you to unpin 2023-4. But I also vote to leave 2024-5 pinned at least through April to discuss the lingering effects of the now very weak/warm stratosphere and other things regarding the latter part of the current heating season. @ORH_wxman @jburns

Today’s release of the weekly Nino 3.4 SSTa, which is for the last week (centered on March 12th), came in at +0.3C. Over the prior 6 weeks from the week centered on Jan 29th (when it was -0.8C), it has warmed a whopping 1.1C. This is by far the strongest warming for that particular 6 week period on record (records back to 1982). The next fastest warming is only half that (~+0.55C) set in both 2023 and 2011! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

Indeed, I am! I find wx data that approaches or sets new records, like for these zonal winds, extra interesting to say the least. Other examples: record obliterating DJF +PNA for non-Nino ‘24-‘25, -5 AO in Feb ‘25, 1/21-2/2025 heaviest sleetstorm on record in my area, etc. My professional and educational background is statistics related in general, which I’ve enjoyed following since being a kid. Since I’m a big wx enthusiast in addition to being a big statistics enthusiast, wx stats are a natural for me to enjoy following.

It’s unanimous for a 2nd and 3rd strong dip (both would set new daily records on and near those dates):

KSAV had beneficial rains of ~0.5” at KSAV today. Much of the rain was light to moderate, a good soaking rain. There was thunder a few times and it was quite windy since last evening, but there was nothing severe in my area. The rain clears out just in time for tomorrow’s St. Patrick’s Day parade, one of the largest in the US. Thanks to the luck of the Irish, it will be sunny, breezy, and cooler tomorrow making for a near perfect day! Edit: my rainfall on 3/16 ended up at ~0.75”

There is SST data of the tropical Pacific back to the 1800s. So, based on that data, scientists have been able to retrospectively classify each year’s ENSO at least roughly. This is a link to Eric Webb’s Nino 3.4 table, which goes way back to 1850: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html Here’s a table from the JMA back to 1868. The JMA region isn’t the same as Nino 3.4. It uses a variation of Nino 3 (4N to 4S rather than 5N to 5S) and averaged over 5 months instead of 3 months: https://data.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

1877-8 was one of the, if not the, strongest El Niño winters on record.

DJF 1995-6 vs 1895-2000 averages actually wasn’t all that cold even in the Midwest: cold but nothing too extreme 1978-9 is an example of extreme cold in the Midwest:

vs 1895-2000 mean: -1993-4 was cold mainly only in the NE and Midwest. The South was NN and the West was mainly AN -1995-6 was cool in the E US but mild in the W US -2002-3 and 2003-4 were cool in the E 1/3 but were mild in the W 2/3 -2004-5 was mild in almost the entire lower 48 -2010-1 was cool to cold in most of the E 1-2 but mild in N New England and the W 1/3 -2013-4 was very cold in the Midwest but was NN in much of the E and SE and was mild in FL and the W 1/3 2014-5 was cool in the E 1/3 but mild in the W 2/3 It appears that these rankings are based on surface area rather than being population weighted. If it were pop weighted, most of these would be higher ranked since BN was most concentrated over densely pop areas.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 150 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2025 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1145 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 ESE DALLAS 33.92N 84.81W 03/15/2025 PAULDING GA EMERGENCY MNGR *** 1 INJ *** TREE DOWNED ON HOUSE ON 300 BLOCK OF DANDY RD.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Barbour County in southeastern Alabama... * Until 130 AM CDT. * At 1241 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Tyler Crossroads, or 7 miles east of Clio, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Tyler Crossroads, Hawkinsville, Millers Ford, Gaino, Osco, Lugo, Baker Hill, Texasville, White Oak, Lakepoint Resort State Park, Eufaula, Clio, and Clayton.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 109 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... MERIWETHER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... MUSCOGEE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... TROUP COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... WESTERN TALBOT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... HARRIS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... * UNTIL 200 AM EDT. * AT 109 AM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN HARBOR TO NEAR GRIFFEN MILL, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... F.D. ROOSEVELT STATE PARK, GREEN ISLAND HILLS, JUNIPER, CATAULA, COLUMBUS METROPOLITAN AIRPORT, LOUISE, CUSSETA, STOVALL, PIEDMONT HEIGHTS, MOUNTAIN HILL, JAMESTOWN/SOUTH FORT BENNING, BENNING HILLS, BENNING PARK, LAGRANGE, BARTLETTS FERRY DAM, FORTSON, MULBERRY GROVE, WHITESVILLE-PINE LAKE, PINE MOUNTAIN-CALLAWAY GARDENS, AND EDGEWOOD.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1204 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 ALC017-160530- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0035.000000T0000Z-250316T0530Z/ Chambers AL- 1204 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY... At 1204 AM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Chambers County Lake, or near Lafayette, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... I 85 Welcome Center At Lanett, Chambers County Lake, Cusseta, Amity Park, Rocky Point, Southern Harbor, Lanett, Lakeview, Denson, Lanett Municipal Airport, Huguley, and La Fayette.

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN COBB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... SOUTHERN BARTOW COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA... CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA... SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA... HARALSON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA... PAULDING COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA... POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA... * UNTIL 600 AM EDT. * AT 1204 AM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. HAZARD...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... CARROLLTON, CARTERSVILLE, DALLAS, CEDARTOWN, BUCHANAN, ACWORTH, VILLA RICA, POWDER SPRINGS, BREMEN, TEMPLE, ROCKMART, EUHARLEE, HIRAM, TALLAPOOSA, BOWDON, MOUNT ZION, EMERSON, ARAGON, WHITE AND WACO.

36% of Paulding county W of Atlanta area is out of power. Gives good idea of where highest winds have been. Corrected

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1146 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN PAULDING COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA... SOUTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... NORTHERN COBB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... * UNTIL 1215 AM EDT. * AT 1146 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER DALLAS, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SWEAT MOUNTAIN, LOST MOUNTAIN PARK, OAK GROVE, KENNESAW STATE UNIVERSITY, ACWORTH, WOODSTOCK, CROSS ROADS, HIRAM, DUE WEST, SANDY PLAINS, NEW HOPE, DALLAS, KENNESAW, AND MARIETTA.

1138 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN PAULDING COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA... NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA... COBB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... DOUGLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... * UNTIL 1230 AM EDT. * AT 1138 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR YORKVILLE TO NEAR LAKE VAL-DO-MAR TO NEAR TEMPLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

Outages recently increased in Heard, Haralson, Polk, and Coweta counties W of Atlanta metro.

1055 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... PAULDING COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA... HARALSON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA... CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA... NORTHWESTERN COBB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... DOUGLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA... NORTHERN HEARD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... NORTHWESTERN COWETA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... SOUTHEASTERN GORDON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA... POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA... BARTOW COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA... * UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT. * AT 1054 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ESOM HILL TO CORINTH, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

The damaging wind threat cannot be understated. They’ll almost definitely affect many more folks than the number hit by tornadoes. Winds not far above the surface are 70 mph+. ATL being up at 1K Ft elevation increases that risk.

Here is the new tornado watch:

Thanks, Chuck. Check out the lagging OHC’s impressively steep warmup during the same period: