GaWx

Imho, verbatim, the 6Z GFS does have a NS going into New England whether purely tropical or not as it is at least a STS and probably is a strong TS. I say TS because it first forms a sfc low east of NC where it is a very warm 29-30 C and it then gets down to 996 mb by the time it reaches 40N, which is how far north the 26 C line gets:

All 3 major 0Z models form a sfc low off the SE US coast by early next week that then heads to the Maine/Maritimes area Wed/Thu. This has been hinted at for a week or longer. Anyone else watching this? This could become the next NS.

A quick shower gave me 0.06" this evening.

True but it is still relatively early as the active climo doesn't really get going til late August. If we were to go, say two weeks out with no additional TC and with no indication of anything imminent or on the models, that would tell me a lot more. But as of now, I think that August could easily still end up with 3 NS. A good number of forecasters implied a hyperactive season was a good probability. I don't see it being hyper though I never expected it this season. My current educated wild guess is for an ACE of 120, which would mean active but nothing close to hyper. If we go 2 weeks with nothing new nor imminent, I' will have by then lowered ACE from 120.

Yeah, I posted about 3rd year La Niña ACE from 8 analogs. Strongest was 1894's 135 followed by 2000's 119. And 1985 was a very tough year for the US even with ACE of only 88.

It wouldn't surprise me as models miss a lot of storms, including Colin earlier this season. Taking this further, who's to say there won't be a couple more after that over the next two weeks or so? I'm still sticking with 3 NS for the most likely # of NS this month. Edit: To add: the 0Z EPS was rather active in the E MDR for week 2. Consistent with this, the last 3 Euro op runs ending with today's 12Z have a weak surface low that comes off Africa ~8/19 and then moves WSW due to a rather strong Azores high to its north. This is a low that the EPS has been showing for most of this week's runs.

Thanks for following up on this. This will end up as a respectable four or so day heatwave. Day one was yesterday (8/11). Below are images with 8/11/22 highs, which come from here: https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/tmaxi.php Eyeballing the numbers for 8/11: - UK: Hottest I see is at a station in the London area and was at 33.6 C (92.5 F), close to what models have been predicting. That compares to a normal of ~23 C/73.4 F meaning a notable 19 F warmer than normal. Although this heat won't peak in the UK nearly as hot as the alltime hottest set last month of just over 40 C/104 F due largely to prevailing E surface winds this time instead of the SSE winds that brought the extreme heat directly from France last month, 33.6 C is still notable since this is hotter than the annual hottest of 75% of the years 1900-2014 and the median annual hottest during that period was only 32.2 C: https://www.trevorharley.com/hottest-day-of-each-year-from-1900.html Another way to look at this: considering that the winds are easterly instead of a more southerly direction, this is quite impressive heat. An additional notable thing is the four day duration of this heatwave in the UK. - France: Although N France was close to what S England had, the hottest for all of France appears to have been a blazing 40.9 C/105.6 F! This is in SW France.

I don't know if you've seen these lists, but maybe these would be helpful: https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/publications/author-information/formatting-and-manuscript-components/list-of-acronyms-and-abbreviations/?utm_source=1&utm_medium=1&utm_term=1&utm_content=1&&utm_campaign=1 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/contract.html https://www.fltplan.com/abbreviations.htm

I can't tell if the SAL dust is still here. I ended up getting no more than a few drops from that evening shelf cloud yesterday. Perhaps the SAL dust, which was only near the coast, kept it from raining any further east than it did? Today: perhaps the SAL dust moved out today from the area as I got a very nice ~1.35" late this afternoon from a thunderstorm. I've had 3 days of rain so far this month and each of the 3 gave me 1.35"+ of rainfall. I'm now up to 4.23" mtd, well above the normal of ~2.5"-2.75".

No, the precursor to Colin was a trough off the SE US coast. It developed a closed LLC just offshore from my area. Before that, I got 4" of rain/street flooding. Now that's the kind of tropical system that even I can deal with just fine and actually enjoy the moderate excitement from. No worries about evacuating. No worries about longlasting outages or damage. And as a bonus we got beneficial rainfall.

A big problem to me is the difference between "some" excitement and "too much" excitement. I don't mind "some" excitement as I implied. But we don't get to choose. What will happen will happen. About the only way to know there will not be too much excitement is for it to be boring (say, no hurricane threatening). From my perspective, the problems from "boredom" pale in comparison to the problems from "too much excitement". So, I'm content with boredom (quietness). Or to know, say, that no more than a moderate TS is threatening. But that's just my opinion. Others like you would prefer to take the chance. I respect that you and others feel differently as long as my feelings are also respected. And I respect that people's feelings about this will often change with experiences and circumstances. In my situation, if I didn't have a mainly bedbound family member who has chronic terrible back pain among other things (not to mention the huge responsibility to take care of that family member), I wouldn't feel as worried because everyone could much more easily evacuate. I'm confident that having this situation, alone, would change the perspective of many.

I never said nor even implied that wanting translates into making them happen since it of course does nothing of the sort. My point is that not everyone feels the same way about these and I have the right to speak my mind (although I won't do it repeatedly). Doing this during these slow times is obviously a better time to do it than when active

I was going to say not to mention the obvious that the last thing the sane amongst us who live not too far from the coast want to happen is a hurricane plowing in and likely causing at a minimum temporary major disruptions to our families' and friends' lives due to the huge inconvenience from having to evacuate (especially for disabled bedbound persons and their caregivers like in my situation..I don't even know how I'd be able to do it), alone, and of course the potential for long lasting power outages and worse yet, damage and even casualties for those who try to ride it out. So, ldub's version of "bad news" is the exact opposite for some of us coastal folks. I just feel it is pointless to repeatedly preach the obvious at a wx forum. But I'm human and will speak my mind on this at times. Your comment gave me a perfect time to do so. This is a reminder that hurricanes are huge life disruptors wherever they hit and are not just a game to see where they will go. So, since a quiet season normally means less chance of these severe disruptions, having a quiet season would actually be great news for some people. I don't mind the nonmajor effects. But as regards major effects, you can put me in the "I'll pass" category every time. Regardless, when I post in the tropical threads, I try to do it in as objective a manner as possible. My goal is to be informative and accurate while not allowing anyone to tell what my desires actually are. If what one desires were to affect one's posts, that would take away from their objectivity and thus their value.

This latest area update brings 2022 back up a decent amount vs the average of 2007-21. It is now at +390K vs the prior 15 year average for the date as compared to +320 as of three days ago. Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K 7/16/22: +330K 7/20/22: +360K 7/23/22: +480K 7/26/22: +460K 7/30/22: +440K 8/7/22: +320K 8/10/22: +390K

I just saw this, which was released from the Charleston, SC, WSO about 45 minutes ago and confirms the significant SAL event for here: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 739 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2022 FINALLY, A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE SAHARAN DUST HAS SPREAD OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO COASTAL SC AND GA, RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF HAZE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. JZI IS REPORTING 5SM IN HAZE AS A RESULT. UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE DUST LAYER WILL BE WITH US. BUT THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES THROUGH THURSDAY.

No rain the last 3 days. But today was pretty unique with what is Saharan Air Layer dust, which barely made it up here. The skies were milky and the sun was filtered along with PC skies. It had the look of smoke or thick summer haze. Interesting stuff! Edit: I just saw this, which was released from the Charleston, SC, WSO about 45 minutes ago, which confirms the pretty rare SAL event for here: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 739 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2022 FINALLY, A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE SAHARAN DUST HAS SPREAD OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO COASTAL SC AND GA, RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF HAZE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. JZI IS REPORTING 5SM IN HAZE AS A RESULT. UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE DUST LAYER WILL BE WITH US. BUT THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES THROUGH THURSDAY. Update at 8:10 PM: A strong outflow boundary has just arrived here around sunset from thunderstorms to the west making it suddenly quite windy. We have a shelf cloud of sorts overhead. Will we get rain from this? The radar for now shows only the dry outflow boundary.

I just noticed that the sky here in Savannah, GA, is milky and the sun looks filtered. It has the look of smoke or haze. But something about it looks different. Is this possibly from SAL? Anyone know if SAL is currently extending all of the way to the GA and SC coast? If so, this is fascinating as I don't think it gets here all the way here at this intensity more than rarely.

And this is despite the 90/30 day SOI of +13/+10. a weak La Nina Nino 3.4 SSTA, and a recently cooled OHC to below normal. OTOH, the Atlantic tropics remain quiet for now....something more akin to El Nino though things can change there in a hurry as it is still early. The climo based main season doesn't even start til near August 20th.

Actually, most of those years were barren in the MDR much of the peak season.

Yeah, there's no indication that El Niño is coming this fall/winter with a 90 day SOI of +13 and 30 day of +10 along with SSTAs in 3.4 in the weak La Niña range and equatorial OHC having dropped back to cooler than normal. La Niña is still pretty heavily favored though it may peak earlier than average. But La Niña seasons are not all alike to say the least.

Third year La Niña climo ftw? Of the 8 analogs, none has had an ACE higher than 135 and that includes the 119 of 2000, which is as good an analog as any to me. Also, July SSTA maps for 2000 and 2022 are fairly similar. Regardless, until we have a better handle on the next 10 days, the door is still wide open to an active (though not hyper imho) season. When I say active, I mean ACE in the general vicinity of 120 and maybe as high as 140ish. We could easily end up with an eastern MDR storm around August 20th (which could end up a dangerous storm that gets far west in the basin per the progged setup as well as history) along with more storms soon afterward. But if we were to get to August 20th with still no new TCs as well as then looking very quiet on models, then a quiet season becomes a significantly higher possibility. It would be amazing if it were to happen in La Niña during this active era! It is fun to see the experts stumped as unpredictability is what keeps long range weather forecasting interesting and a challenge. Keep in mind that only three seasons since 1995 have had fewer than 3 August NS and two of them were El Niño.

Although the writing is on the wall and the chances for hyper are steadily dropping (I never expected hyper), it is still too early imho to say with confidence it will end up a "total dud". Keep in mind that the very active seasons of 1996, 1998, and 1999 (ACE 166-182) didn't have their first August NS til the 18th or 19th. Actually, 1998 and 1999 both had only their 2nd NS 8/18-19 whereas 2022 has already had three. Also, 1992 didn't have Andrew til August 16th!

Good point as that seems to be his default, but to fair I know there was one year recently when JB didn't go high risk for the east coast. Personally, whereas I think the east coast should by no means relax especially this early in the season (I'm wary about the danger, myself, but I am most years and also hope for the best), my highest direct hit risk area per analogs and the recent pattern remains the NE GOM, especially around FL. Edit: I just checked and in 2021 he had the upper east coast at well above average risk. The NE got directly hit by 2 TS, which is above the average of 1 or fewer TC hits for the upper US east coast. So, I give him a win there for 2021. More updates: 2020: He had an active season overall but I'm not sure of his impact forecast for the NE US. It appears he did pretty well overall. 2019: he had a somewhat weak season forecasted and it appears he also had a lower impact forecast for the NE US. So, I think this is that recent year I was referring to. ACE turned out to be 132 and Dorian was a beast, but the upper east coast did get off lightly. So, I guess he did ok overall. "From this point of view it looks like a down year in at least the Main Development Region and less of a year farther to the north than last year. The caveat is that in-close systems and warm water feedback will lead to challenges that can make or break the season from an impact perspective. On the high end, if the El Niño isn't impressive we could see activity in line with last year, hence the relatively broad range. I have a feel for where below average intensity of storms relative to normal will be, but the term "scattershot" describes the idea of stronger features away from the Deep Tropics this year." https://www.weatherbell.com/april-hurricane-season-outlook 2018: "WeatherBELL.com is forecasting in between a BELOW to ABOVE average Season with 11-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes which 1-3 of those becoming major hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 90-110. WeatherBELL says as far as impact, unlike last year when we plainly had the U.S. in the cross-hairs, this year it looks like the U.S. will be on the western edge of the highest ACE area (50% or more). This will extend between 30°N and 40°N from the U.S. coast to 55°W. If I had to draw it today, the centering of the area of greatest activity would not be like last year. Look for storms to be stronger farther to the north and east than 2017." https://www.trackthetropics.com/hurricane-season-2018-forecasts/

Absolutely. Posting style is identical. Also, both have the Norfolk/VA Beach area as home. He or she has amazing longevity for that kind of posting! Like others have said, this person is legendary among trolls. @Torch Tiger Yes, thanks for reminding me. Rainstorm absolutely did have a heart avatar and now I clearly remember it! That was after having the lady with the U.S. flag scarf avatar, which I recall from when jxdama was the name used at WW.

This latest area update brings down 2022 a rather significant amount vs the average of 2007-21. It is now at +320K vs the prior 15 year average for the date as compared to +440K as of eight days ago. Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K 7/16/22: +330K 7/20/22: +360K 7/23/22: +480K 7/26/22: +460K 7/30/22: +440K 8/7/22: +320K