GaWx

It is nothing new that the operational GFS has a bias to overdo summer highs during hot periods. Also, the Euro op. has done that at least to some extent the past few years. The better bet is to go with the ensemble means because they average cooler than the operationals.

I ended up right at 2" yesterday (7/10), near the jackpot for the county. To illustrate the high variability yesterday in Chatham County, check out the image below, which is the 24 hour rainfall ending at 7AM this morning per CoCoRaHS. The lows in light blue of 0.05" and 0.06" were at opposite ends of the county, Garden City and Skidaway Island. The highs in orange and red of 1.39" and 2.11" were in a narrow ~5 mile long corridor within the heart of the county from near Wilshire Estates on the southside (near Abercorn) to near E. Victory Dr.:

Today's weekly update has Nino 3.4 at -0.5 C, slightly warmer than the prior week's -0.6 C. For those who don't happen to know, the -0.5 C is essentially based on the average of last week due to the normal ~5 day reporting lag. The SOI, after one day of barely negative, has gone back to positive (modest so far). I'm assuming that much of the reason for the record low MJ MEI is the very strongly + MJ SOI. The 2022 MJ SOI was way up at +17.1, which is 2nd highest (records back to 1876) to 1917's +19.4. In 3rd is 1950's +15.0. In 4th is 1931's +14.2, 5th is 1915's +14.0, and 6th is 1938's +13.9. Where did these 5 other years end up ENSOwise during the subsequent fall/winter dip? One might think good chance for moderate to strong La Niña. However, only one was moderate (1917, the record holder for MJ +SOI), none were strong, and the other four were weak Niña to cold neutral: 1915: weak La Niña/cold neutral border 1917: moderate La Niña 1931: cold neutral 1938: weak La Niña 1950: cold neutral/weak La Niña border Based on this, I'll educatedly guess for now a weak La Niña for the upcoming fall/winter with probably an earlier than average low point. Daily/last 30 days SOI: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ Monthly SOI back to 1876: https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt

So, this is a continuation of the sudden reversal toward recovery vs the 2007-21 average that started just after 6/29. It has actually reversed to the best position (+250K) vs that 15 year period since that period started being followed here on June 15th, barely bettering the +240K of 6/20/22. This is a 390K recovery vs that 15 year average over just the last 11 days: Recap of current vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K

Yeah, in summer, there are such large variations within the county on most days. That's the nature of summertime popups just about anywhere as we know. Just a few miles often makes a huge difference. And the variation is increased due to the seabreeze often intersecting the county. Hunter (KSVN), the other station, is much closer to me and got 0.75" vs KSAV's 0.08". But based on following the radar, I did get much more than even Hunter. KSVN (Hunter) link: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=ksvn

I think I remember that. Another thing is that I don't recall her or him ever being overly rude or mean. Not once over all of the years. So, a relatively nice troll imo, which makes it hard to get into trouble and thus better allows for longevity. I think that would look good on a troll's resume. Regarding WxWatcher's Gulf update, the 2 PM TWO remains at a 20% chance for a TC over the next five days. With the Gulf very warm to hot and this likely to be slow moving, the big story from this one is liable to be very heavy rainfall along part of the Gulf coast as the 12Z Euro 10 day rainfall map suggests. This is likely overdone but here it is:

Rainfall the last 2 days (all from thunderstorms): 7/8: 0.25"; 7/9: 1.25" Together with the 4" 7/1 and 0.20" 7/7, I'm at 5.7" MTD through 7/9, which is nearly three times the normal for that period and not far from the normal for the entire month. Together with the 7" for June, I'm at 12.7" for the met. summer so far, which is close to the normal for all of June and July, combined. Considering that we've been in a severe drought thanks to well under half the normal rainfall and near the driest in the entire SE US from mid November through May resulting in soil that was almost as hard as concrete, this has been a great turnaround. And now (7/10) we're just starting to get more rain with storms all around. I expect to update this later. Edit for 4:25 PM 7/10 update: preliminary rainfall from today's storm is a whopping 2"+ with all of this falling just over the last hour causing the typical street flooding. It is still raining though it is slowly tapering. My final rainfall amount was right at 2".

I absolutely agree and "she" still seems to be because she's back. If there's such a thing as being graded on trolling, rainstorm gets an A+ from me lmao. Dare I say, she even sometimes made me laugh due to her persistence on saying such over the top nonsense as well as never deviating and being successful. Even the name "rainstorm" embodied her trolling nature. Is that something she can be proud of and put on her resume lol? Do you happen to remember that rainstorm wasn't the first name she went by? She was "jxdama" before (on WWBB).

Besides possible problems with the accuracy of one or both sensors, keep in mind that since June 16th rainfallwise GSO has received more than double the amount at RDU (3.24" vs RDU's mere 1.52"). In summer, large differences in rainfall over a several week period almost always as I assume you realize result in notable differences in especially daytime highs. I noticed the same thing when comparing the not dry Augusta and the very dry Macon a few weeks ago and posted about it. Currently, there's a 6.5 difference between RDU highs MTD vs GSO whereas RDU lows are only 3.1 warmer. Looking at normals, RDU is warmer in July but to a much smaller degree (2.2 for highs and 0.8 for lows). So, that tells me that 4.3 of the difference in highs and 2.3 of the difference in lows this month can't be explained by differences in normals. My educated guess is that a decent portion of the 4.3 for highs is due to rainfall differences the last 3 weeks. To compare to last month, RDU was warmer than GSO but to a much lesser degree with highs 3.2 warmer and lows 1.3 warmer. Normals are higher in June for RDU vs GSO by 2.2 for highs and 0.6 for lows. So, most of the differences in highs last month can be likely attributed to differences in normals. That has clearly changed this month.

From a thunderstorm, I just got my first rain since the big mainly very early morning July 1st 4" rain associated with what later became Colin. So far, totals here today are modest (0.20-0.25" range). But I'll take it after a dry six day period, especially considering that a good portion of that 4" rain likely ran off rather than it saturating. After all, 0.20" is the equivalent of slightly more than one irrigation.

There have been only four days since April 1st (98 total days) without a +SOI. Both the 30 and 90 day SOI averages remain firmly in La Niña territory fwiw. But I still wouldn't rule out cold neutral for the upcoming fall/winter peak based on the current subsurface and surface. Actually, due to the inherent unpredictability that I've been a victim of, I wouldn't even totally rule out warm neutral and I probably shouldn't rule out anything lol. Regardless, most indicators suggest good warming commencing at some point early in 2023 (perhaps as early as much of the winter) and persisting for much of the year. So, even if it dips back down into or stays within La Niña this fall, it should be an early minimum. https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

I know you were being sarcastic. I don't know if you go far back enough to remember the troll "rainstorm", but that's who this troll is. The exact same shtick. It was often done early in the season so as to have the most effect on pissing off those wanting an active season. It was also done during the heart of 2003 when Isabel was already a storm as this troll, who then had VA Beach-Norfolk area as the hometown (same as now) kept saying it would harmlessly stay away from the east coast. This person has already accomplished what was desired, getting posters riled up and responding about very silly over the top type downplaying. Part of the intentionally silly downplaying was calling last season "tame". In addition, predicting that this season will end up tame along the east coast a month before the climo most active part of the season even begins and based on nothing scientific is as we know and as the troll knows also pure silliness. Yes, of course it may very well end up that way especially considering that a large number of seasons up the east coast have done just that (though I'm not making that prediction), but the prediction based on nothing is a joke.

Pretty much per that longtime troll, who has always aimed the trolling at the NE US members because many members are in the NE. The silliness about 2021 being "lame" is so laughable, especially because the NE US as you know had a very high impact season thanks to not just one, not just two, and not just three storms, but FOUR storms during just a 60 day period early July through early Sept thanks to Elsa, Fred, Henri, and Ida! How many other seasons had that many significant tropical related impacts? 2021 had the second wettest 60 day period in the history in NYC (almost 27"!), for example, the majority of which was tropical related. This included very rare major subway station flooding. There was not just one but two different storms with actual TS landfalls in RI (Elsa and Henri) plus the remnants of Ida produced similarly strong NE US winds (big wind and rain impacts at US Open for example) with many trees down and numerous power outages from them. There were many tornadoes from the combo of Elsa, Fred remnants, and Ida remnants. There was extreme to historical rain related flooding from Elsa, Henri, and Ida in places like NJ, NY, and New England. I don't live there, but I have relatives there who were heavily impacted by these storms overall as you must have experienced. So, saying "Rather tame like last year" is so ridiculously "over the top" but of course that troll knows it. That's part of the shtick.

It sure feels like I've been experiencing "rainstorm" deja vu in recent days. Anyone else feeling it? Newbies won't know what I'm talking about. This goes back to the EasternUSWx days. Anyway, the tropics are very quiet and look to stay that way well into next week. This is very typical of early to mid July.

I'm referring to recovering vs the average of 2007-2021, which are the years that @ORH_wxman has been comparing to ITT since June 15th. I'm not referring at all to pre-2007. I agree that pre-2007 levels aren't coming back.

This 7/1/22 update translates to a nice recovery vs just two days prior of +210K vs the average of the last 15 years from -140K to +70K. That's quite a reversal after the 380K loss (+240K to -140K) vs this average over the nine day period preceding these last two days. Is this merely a temporary recovery or the start of a new trend? We'll see. Recap of current vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K

After June 28th became the first day in ~45 days back up to normal, the average Arctic temperature north of 80N went right back down and is now near the coldest for July 4th going back to 1958, which is just above freezing (see image below). Variance in summer is very low. The last time it was this cold on July 4th was in 2014. If the past is a good indication, it should level off near here. The coldest on any date in midsummer back to 1958 is only down to near -0.5 C. (The blue line is at 0C.) The warmest is +2.5 C, set in 1991, 94, and 95.

"Collectively, the tropical and subtropical systems of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season caused 194 deaths and about $80.727 billion in damage, making it the third costliest season on record. Eight named storms struck the United States, which is the third most ever, behind only the previous season and 1916." https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Seasonal_summary PS: Clever double entendre of sorts (assuming you intended that) in your post

Do you or does anyone else here remember the VA Beach troll poster from way back when on EasternUSwx named "Rainstorm"? Each summer at about this time "she" would post that the east coast was going to be safe from the tropics due to protective east coast troughing, WNW 500 mb flow, etc. She was really good at upsetting the tropical weenies. It was pretty funny. That is until her area got slammed head on by Isabel soon after one of her east coast trough posts! She turned out ok, but oh the irony. I saw her most recently on Storm2K a few years back using another name but identical trolling.

Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORMS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 79.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico Sound. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

New thread for Invest 96L:

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 1. Near the Southeastern US: Satellite and radar images along with surface observations indicate that a low pressure system has formed just off the coast of Savannah, Georgia. Surface pressures are high in this region, and development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it drifts northeastward along the southeast U.S. coastline during the next day or so. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas through tonight and into Saturday. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service forecast office for more details. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Being that I'm not too many miles from the coast and thus am subject to major disruption to my family and myself from strong TCs, I'm fine with them nearby as long as they stay pretty weak! This is now Invest 96L by the way.

^The aforementioned low now has a 10% chance for tropical development as it moves slowly NE per the 2 PM TWO: (now is Invest 96L and thus this has its own thread in the tropical section) Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 1. Near the Southeastern US: Satellite and radar images along with surface observations indicate that a low pressure system has formed just off the coast of Savannah, Georgia. Surface pressures are high in this region, and development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it drifts northeastward along the southeast U.S. coastline during the next day or so. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas through tonight and into Saturday. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service forecast office for more details. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Kudos for being on top of this! I'm not saying I'm expecting imminent tropical development, especially with it not too far offshore, but obviously there's plenty of moisture at multiple levels and SSTs are conducive in the area with 82-84 F. So, although conditions for development are far from ideal with areas of moderate+ shear nearby and it not being far from shore, a TD forming from this wouldn't be shocking assuming it stays offshore. It should continue moving very slowly N and then probably NE near or just offshore SC. Regardless of whether or not it becomes a TC, this is interesting to watch spin around and it has and will likely continue to be a significant wx maker in terms of heavy rainfall potential in the coastal Carolinas as it was here earlier today.