GaWx

I absolutely agree and "she" still seems to be because she's back. If there's such a thing as being graded on trolling, rainstorm gets an A+ from me lmao. Dare I say, she even sometimes made me laugh due to her persistence on saying such over the top nonsense as well as never deviating and being successful. Even the name "rainstorm" embodied her trolling nature. Is that something she can be proud of and put on her resume lol? Do you happen to remember that rainstorm wasn't the first name she went by? She was "jxdama" before (on WWBB).

Besides possible problems with the accuracy of one or both sensors, keep in mind that since June 16th rainfallwise GSO has received more than double the amount at RDU (3.24" vs RDU's mere 1.52"). In summer, large differences in rainfall over a several week period almost always as I assume you realize result in notable differences in especially daytime highs. I noticed the same thing when comparing the not dry Augusta and the very dry Macon a few weeks ago and posted about it. Currently, there's a 6.5 difference between RDU highs MTD vs GSO whereas RDU lows are only 3.1 warmer. Looking at normals, RDU is warmer in July but to a much smaller degree (2.2 for highs and 0.8 for lows). So, that tells me that 4.3 of the difference in highs and 2.3 of the difference in lows this month can't be explained by differences in normals. My educated guess is that a decent portion of the 4.3 for highs is due to rainfall differences the last 3 weeks. To compare to last month, RDU was warmer than GSO but to a much lesser degree with highs 3.2 warmer and lows 1.3 warmer. Normals are higher in June for RDU vs GSO by 2.2 for highs and 0.6 for lows. So, most of the differences in highs last month can be likely attributed to differences in normals. That has clearly changed this month.

From a thunderstorm, I just got my first rain since the big mainly very early morning July 1st 4" rain associated with what later became Colin. So far, totals here today are modest (0.20-0.25" range). But I'll take it after a dry six day period, especially considering that a good portion of that 4" rain likely ran off rather than it saturating. After all, 0.20" is the equivalent of slightly more than one irrigation.

There have been only four days since April 1st (98 total days) without a +SOI. Both the 30 and 90 day SOI averages remain firmly in La Niña territory fwiw. But I still wouldn't rule out cold neutral for the upcoming fall/winter peak based on the current subsurface and surface. Actually, due to the inherent unpredictability that I've been a victim of, I wouldn't even totally rule out warm neutral and I probably shouldn't rule out anything lol. Regardless, most indicators suggest good warming commencing at some point early in 2023 (perhaps as early as much of the winter) and persisting for much of the year. So, even if it dips back down into or stays within La Niña this fall, it should be an early minimum. https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

I know you were being sarcastic. I don't know if you go far back enough to remember the troll "rainstorm", but that's who this troll is. The exact same shtick. It was often done early in the season so as to have the most effect on pissing off those wanting an active season. It was also done during the heart of 2003 when Isabel was already a storm as this troll, who then had VA Beach-Norfolk area as the hometown (same as now) kept saying it would harmlessly stay away from the east coast. This person has already accomplished what was desired, getting posters riled up and responding about very silly over the top type downplaying. Part of the intentionally silly downplaying was calling last season "tame". In addition, predicting that this season will end up tame along the east coast a month before the climo most active part of the season even begins and based on nothing scientific is as we know and as the troll knows also pure silliness. Yes, of course it may very well end up that way especially considering that a large number of seasons up the east coast have done just that (though I'm not making that prediction), but the prediction based on nothing is a joke.

Pretty much per that longtime troll, who has always aimed the trolling at the NE US members because many members are in the NE. The silliness about 2021 being "lame" is so laughable, especially because the NE US as you know had a very high impact season thanks to not just one, not just two, and not just three storms, but FOUR storms during just a 60 day period early July through early Sept thanks to Elsa, Fred, Henri, and Ida! How many other seasons had that many significant tropical related impacts? 2021 had the second wettest 60 day period in the history in NYC (almost 27"!), for example, the majority of which was tropical related. This included very rare major subway station flooding. There was not just one but two different storms with actual TS landfalls in RI (Elsa and Henri) plus the remnants of Ida produced similarly strong NE US winds (big wind and rain impacts at US Open for example) with many trees down and numerous power outages from them. There were many tornadoes from the combo of Elsa, Fred remnants, and Ida remnants. There was extreme to historical rain related flooding from Elsa, Henri, and Ida in places like NJ, NY, and New England. I don't live there, but I have relatives there who were heavily impacted by these storms overall as you must have experienced. So, saying "Rather tame like last year" is so ridiculously "over the top" but of course that troll knows it. That's part of the shtick.

It sure feels like I've been experiencing "rainstorm" deja vu in recent days. Anyone else feeling it? Newbies won't know what I'm talking about. This goes back to the EasternUSWx days. Anyway, the tropics are very quiet and look to stay that way well into next week. This is very typical of early to mid July.

I'm referring to recovering vs the average of 2007-2021, which are the years that @ORH_wxman has been comparing to ITT since June 15th. I'm not referring at all to pre-2007. I agree that pre-2007 levels aren't coming back.

This 7/1/22 update translates to a nice recovery vs just two days prior of +210K vs the average of the last 15 years from -140K to +70K. That's quite a reversal after the 380K loss (+240K to -140K) vs this average over the nine day period preceding these last two days. Is this merely a temporary recovery or the start of a new trend? We'll see. Recap of current vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K

After June 28th became the first day in ~45 days back up to normal, the average Arctic temperature north of 80N went right back down and is now near the coldest for July 4th going back to 1958, which is just above freezing (see image below). Variance in summer is very low. The last time it was this cold on July 4th was in 2014. If the past is a good indication, it should level off near here. The coldest on any date in midsummer back to 1958 is only down to near -0.5 C. (The blue line is at 0C.) The warmest is +2.5 C, set in 1991, 94, and 95.

"Collectively, the tropical and subtropical systems of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season caused 194 deaths and about $80.727 billion in damage, making it the third costliest season on record. Eight named storms struck the United States, which is the third most ever, behind only the previous season and 1916." https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Seasonal_summary PS: Clever double entendre of sorts (assuming you intended that) in your post

Do you or does anyone else here remember the VA Beach troll poster from way back when on EasternUSwx named "Rainstorm"? Each summer at about this time "she" would post that the east coast was going to be safe from the tropics due to protective east coast troughing, WNW 500 mb flow, etc. She was really good at upsetting the tropical weenies. It was pretty funny. That is until her area got slammed head on by Isabel soon after one of her east coast trough posts! She turned out ok, but oh the irony. I saw her most recently on Storm2K a few years back using another name but identical trolling.

Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORMS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 79.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico Sound. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

New thread for Invest 96L:

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 1. Near the Southeastern US: Satellite and radar images along with surface observations indicate that a low pressure system has formed just off the coast of Savannah, Georgia. Surface pressures are high in this region, and development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it drifts northeastward along the southeast U.S. coastline during the next day or so. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas through tonight and into Saturday. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service forecast office for more details. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Being that I'm not too many miles from the coast and thus am subject to major disruption to my family and myself from strong TCs, I'm fine with them nearby as long as they stay pretty weak! This is now Invest 96L by the way.

^The aforementioned low now has a 10% chance for tropical development as it moves slowly NE per the 2 PM TWO: (now is Invest 96L and thus this has its own thread in the tropical section) Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 1. Near the Southeastern US: Satellite and radar images along with surface observations indicate that a low pressure system has formed just off the coast of Savannah, Georgia. Surface pressures are high in this region, and development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it drifts northeastward along the southeast U.S. coastline during the next day or so. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas through tonight and into Saturday. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service forecast office for more details. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Kudos for being on top of this! I'm not saying I'm expecting imminent tropical development, especially with it not too far offshore, but obviously there's plenty of moisture at multiple levels and SSTs are conducive in the area with 82-84 F. So, although conditions for development are far from ideal with areas of moderate+ shear nearby and it not being far from shore, a TD forming from this wouldn't be shocking assuming it stays offshore. It should continue moving very slowly N and then probably NE near or just offshore SC. Regardless of whether or not it becomes a TC, this is interesting to watch spin around and it has and will likely continue to be a significant wx maker in terms of heavy rainfall potential in the coastal Carolinas as it was here earlier today.

Due to a coastal low/trough and the associated deep Atlantic moisture, I've received 4" since midnight (so all of it counts for July) with 3.5" of that during just midnight-3AM causing significant street flooding. This is the heaviest daily rainfall here since way back on 9/20/21, which wasn't from a tropical cyclone as that was due to converging surface flow off the Gulf and Atlantic (although moisture may have been enhanced by the remnants of Nicholas). The low center, which is getting a bit better organized and now is 30 miles ESE of Tybee Island/ESE of here (see radar image below), is now far enough north to reduce the heavy rain potential here due to not as much Atlantic moisture as earlier. The wettest flow was when the low was further south of our latitude earlier today giving us a SE/direct flow off the ocean. Now the flow is light from the north (land). It remains to be seen whether or not any more significant rain falls here today considering that the low is slowly moving north. The heaviest rainfall accumulation threat/flooding for the rest of today should be NE of here over coastal SC although it wouldn't surprise me if I were to get some short periods of heavy rain in showers. -------------- From the recent MCD Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0423 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1224 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 Areas affected...Coastal Lowcountry of Georgia and South Carolina Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 011623Z - 012200Z Summary...Coastal low pressure will bring heavy rain to the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina through this evening. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr will likely train onshore, leading to instances of flash flooding. Discussion...An area of low pressure is clearly evident on the regional radar mosaic this morning as a closed swirl of reflectivity just east of Tybee Island, GA. This circulation has become better organized this morning along an inverted trough, and is responsible for heavy rainfall exceeding 4 inches that fell near Chatham, GA overnight.

Due to this coastal low/trough and the associated deep Atlantic moisture, I've received 4" since midnight with 3.5" of that during just midnight-3AM causing significant street flooding. This is the heaviest daily rainfall here since way back on 9/20/21, which wasn't from a tropical cyclone as that was due to converging surface flow off the Gulf and Atlantic (although moisture may have been enhanced by the remnants of Nicholas).

I got 0.15" yesterday to finish June at 7.0". After being in drought conditions for quite a long time and being about the driest of anywhere in the SE from mid November through May 20th, things have suddenly turned around here since then. Hoping many of the still dry areas in the SE have better luck in July. My June hottest was 102.7 early afternoon on June 23rd, the hottest for any day in at least several years! After midnight tonight, my area unexpectedly got slammed. But the details of that will have to wait for the July thread.

This means that during the last nine days vs the average of the last 15 years, 2022 has had a pretty dramatic 380K downturn from +240K to -140K (just over 40K/day). Recap of current vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K

This SOI update suggests that a third in a row La Niña fall or winter peak is quite possible, if not likely, and that El Niño won't happen: - June 2022 SOI of +15.7 is the most positive June SOI since 1950 and second most positive June of last 100 years - Apr-June 2022 SOI of +18.1 is the second most positive on record by a good margin (back to 1876) with only 1917's +19.2 being higher - The last time a three calendar month SOI was more positive for ANY three month period than the current +18.1 was the strong La Niña of 2010-11, when it peaked at +22.4. - Prior to that, the only more positive three calendar month SOI periods of the last 100 years for ANY part of the year were the upper teens to low 20s leading up to or during the strong La Niñas of 1988-9, 1975-6, and 1973-4! Before that, one has to go all the way back to the lead up to the moderate La Niña of 1917-18, when the 3 calendar month hit an all-time record high of +29.5 during July-Sept. Prior to that, you have to go back to the +21.0 of the borderline mod/strong La Niña of 1889-90 and the +20.1 of the lead up to the borderline weak/moderate La Niña of 1879-80. - The highest 3 month +SOI lead up periods (April-June or later) to the 49 El Niños back to 1876-7 were the +12.9 of Jun-Aug of 1900, the +10.2 of May-July of 1968 and the +10.1 of Apr-June of 1904. Compare those to the current +18.1. - June-Aug of 1950 was +18.0 and lead up to a cold neutral. Jul-Sep of 1878 was +14.9 and also lead up to a cold neutral. Thus, neutral, especially cold, is still a reasonable possibility, especially considering the recent warming of both Nino 3.4 to -0.6 and the OHC. - I like to include the SOI in the mix for ENSO predictions because it, especially the 90 day, often is a decent leading (as opposed to lagging) indicator of general trends and the hard data goes back ~150 years making for good opportunities for analysis. - All of this fwiw because ENSO predicting isn't for the faint of heart as ENSO actuals will surprise you when you least expect it. Monthly SOI back to 1876: https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt

^ Interesting stat. Here is that record tying 10th PTC advisory: Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 ...CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 70.6W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022 ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 69.0W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CURACAO ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES ------------------------- Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022 The system has changed little in organization today, and in fact has taken on a more elongated appearance. Most of the heavier showers and stronger winds are occurring in a long band over the northern portion of the disturbance. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and a Dvorak classification indicate that the current intensity remains near 35 kt. High-resolution visible satellite images suggest that the system may trying to close off a center to the south of the ABC Islands, but the surface observations are still not very conclusive. Radar images from Curacao also do not yet show a definite center. The system could make the transition to a tropical cyclone at any time. The initial motion continues to be rapidly westward, or 280/18 kt. There is not much change in the track forecast reasoning. The flow on the southern side of a large mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of the system should maintain a mainly westward track for most of the forecast period. The latest HCCA prediction shows a slightly more southern track after 1-2 days than before, likely due to the input from the ECMWF model. The new NHC forecast is not much different from the previous one, but is only a little farther south after 36 hours or so. Since the system is expected to remain in a low-shear environment, it is likely to strengthen after it moves away from the influence of the South American land mass. The system is expected to approach hurricane strength over the southwestern Caribbean, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. After some expected weakening from crossing Central America, the system should regain strength over the eastern North Pacific basin. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the ABC Islands, portions of northern Venezuela, and northeast Columbia through Thursday morning, and reach Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. Areas of flash flooding are expected, along with the potential for mudslides. 2. Winds to tropical storm force are expected over the ABC Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Colombia tonight and early Thursday. 3. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 11.6N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 30/0600Z 11.8N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 30/1800Z 12.0N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 11.7N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 11.4N 82.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 11.1N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 02/1800Z 11.2N 87.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 03/1800Z 12.3N 92.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 13.5N 98.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch