GaWx

UKMET continues leading the trend southward. The 12Z track, in red, goes from halfway between Naples and Ft. Myers to way down at Melbourne:

I agree 100%. The UKMET, now 20 miles south of Ft. Myers and putting that city and even Naples in the major danger zone, has lead the charge. The 12Z run is the 11th in a row (going back to the 0Z 9/25 run) with a landfall south of Tampa, by far the best performance of the major operational models (even better than the ICON). Will future runs go even further south to Naples or has it reached its furthest south landfall point? We'll see.

12Z UKMET furthest SE track yet with landfall only 20 miles north of Naples/20 miles south of Ft. Myers, goes across FL to Melbourne, and then 2nd landfall Charleston: HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 83.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 27.09.2022 0 22.5N 83.5W 979 56 0000UTC 28.09.2022 12 24.5N 83.2W 977 60 1200UTC 28.09.2022 24 25.9N 82.3W 976 60 0000UTC 29.09.2022 36 27.0N 81.4W 989 42 1200UTC 29.09.2022 48 28.1N 80.6W 992 44 0000UTC 30.09.2022 60 29.2N 79.9W 989 53 1200UTC 30.09.2022 72 30.5N 79.9W 985 57 0000UTC 01.10.2022 84 33.0N 80.0W 985 40 1200UTC 01.10.2022 96 34.9N 81.4W 999 29 0000UTC 02.10.2022 108 36.3N 81.0W 1005 23 1200UTC 02.10.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING

Ian has made it to at least 83.7 W. The 0Z UKMET made it as far west as only 83.4. This along with it being the most SE track of any current model run makes me think that this run's track is likely too far SE with its landfall just north of Ft. Myers.

Right now it is near 83.6 W with 83.7 W the furthest west 11PM NHC point. So, this looks like it is right in the forecasted path.

0Z UKMET: even further south just N of Ft. Myers, exits FL near Cape Canaveral, and then 2nd landfall Charleston: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 27.09.2022 HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N 83.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 27.09.2022 0 20.8N 83.3W 984 51 1200UTC 27.09.2022 12 22.8N 83.4W 985 47 0000UTC 28.09.2022 24 24.4N 83.2W 983 49 1200UTC 28.09.2022 36 26.1N 82.5W 982 59 0000UTC 29.09.2022 48 27.4N 81.6W 991 45 1200UTC 29.09.2022 60 28.4N 80.6W 995 46 0000UTC 30.09.2022 72 29.4N 80.4W 993 53 1200UTC 30.09.2022 84 30.5N 79.9W 993 44 0000UTC 01.10.2022 96 33.0N 80.1W 990 38 1200UTC 01.10.2022 108 35.0N 81.1W 999 28 0000UTC 02.10.2022 120 36.4N 80.6W 1005 21 1200UTC 02.10.2022 132 36.8N 79.9W 1008 23 0000UTC 03.10.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING

0Z ICON landfall about same place as 18Z (maybe slightly north) and a little later

0Z ICON 18 is slightly SW of 18Z 24 although it is still a tiny bit east of the 12Z 30

If Ian ends up landfalling south of Tampa and then goes well inland into FL from there, the UKMET will be the big winner as it has had this scenario since the 0Z run of 9/25, eight runs in a row. It had been largely discounted til this last run, but it now has a good shot at a win as the Euro, ICON, and HMON were late to the party. It also was the big winner for Irma in 2017. So, I guess once every five years it gets a big win.

Because the 18Z shift suggests landfall at only hour 48 per UKMET, Euro, ICON, and HMON as opposed to it being out at at a much longer timeframe, I think this shift has a high chance to be reflecting the reality to come.

I don't think that there's any nonsense about 18Z, especially because they're doing special balloon launches at 18Z: https://www.wowt.com/2022/09/25/more-weather-balloons-going-up-help-forecast-soon-be-hurricane-ian/?outputType=amp

UKMET is not so weird anymore. The 18Z Euro is only 25 miles north of it at 48!

18Z Euro at 48 is a whopping 125 miles east of the 12Z already about to hit the coast south of Tampa!! This is similar to the 18Z UKMET.

18Z Euro 24 is quite a bit NE of 12Z at 30.

The 18Z UKMET ends the 60 hour run moving NE ~70 miles S of Orlando, which is near where the 12Z got to but the 18Z gets there 12 hours sooner.

18 UKMET is not at all giving up on the SE outlier scenario as it is 30 miles NE of the 12Z run moving toward Punta Gorda area once again (75 miles s of Tampa).

18Z GFS 12 a little SE of 12Z at 18. Let's see how this run goes from here.

18Z ICON very similar to 12Z UKMET in entire trek through FL and is most SE ICON track since the similar 18Z run of 48 hours ago.

12Z EPS tracks: mean near operational just offshore Tampa

12Z EPS mean not surprisingly east of 6Z and similar to 0Z with a mean track near Tampa.

At hour 120 of 12Z, Euro (Columbus, GA) is 300 miles west of the UKMET (CHS)!

At hour 120 of 12Z, Euro (Columbus, GA) is 300 miles west of the UKMET (CHS)!

12Z Euro 72 has a slightly stronger NE US H5 trough than 6Z and 00Z runs. Its Ian location is between those 2 runs at 72.

12Z Euro 72 is between the 0Z and 6Z runs for same timeframe

West of 0Z but NE of 6Z