GaWx

0Z UKMET landfalls near Port Charlotte vs near or just north of Tampa on runs of 12 and 24 hours ago. So, this is 75+ miles south of those runs.

0Z UKMET significantly south of the last two full runs with it landfalling FL now well south of Tampa: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 25.09.2022 TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 76.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 25.09.2022 0 14.7N 76.9W 1006 28 1200UTC 25.09.2022 12 14.3N 79.4W 1004 25 0000UTC 26.09.2022 24 15.7N 80.6W 1001 31 1200UTC 26.09.2022 36 17.5N 82.2W 1000 33 0000UTC 27.09.2022 48 19.6N 83.0W 998 37 1200UTC 27.09.2022 60 21.8N 83.7W 995 36 0000UTC 28.09.2022 72 23.9N 83.9W 994 41 1200UTC 28.09.2022 84 25.4N 83.5W 992 49 0000UTC 29.09.2022 96 26.1N 83.2W 991 54 1200UTC 29.09.2022 108 26.6N 82.7W 991 49 0000UTC 30.09.2022 120 27.4N 82.0W 990 49 1200UTC 30.09.2022 132 28.6N 81.6W 990 43 0000UTC 01.10.2022 144 30.2N 81.0W 989 44

0Z GFS 114 very close to 18Z GFS 120 and not quite as strong in N GOM.

Regarding the 18Z EPS 144, I don't see much change vs 12Z EPS 150 other than perhaps the spread being a little narrower

I don't know if anyone posted it, but the 12Z JMA landfalls near Tampa at 120. So, that is similar to the Euro and UKMET at 12Z.

For those who don't realize it, the "UKM2" on here that goes to 168 is the 12Z UKMET (18Z goes out only about 60 hours I think). But I think that the "AVNI" is the 18Z GFS.

The entire September average ACE 1991-2020 was 56. This September's MTD ACE is already 58 with lots more to come from Ian if he hits the forecasted strength. If so, a Sept of 70+ would occur with even a shot at 75, which would be 34% above the 30 year average. The 30 year average ACE for Sept 16-30 is 24.5. If it gets to 75 as of Sept 30, that would mean an actual ACE of 43 for 9/16-30, which would be 75% above the 30 year average! A 75 in Sept would give us 78 season to date vs the 30 year average of 94 STD. An active Oct/Nov would make it possible to get close to the entire season average of 123.

Right shift on 18Z ICON vs 12Z with Ft Myers to Daytona track

12Z EPS sizable W shift vs 6Z with densest concentration near and west of Tampa

UKMET is also near Tampa

This 12 Euro 72 is barely NW of 6Z at 78. Essentially the same location as 6Z run then. Headed for Tampa?

12Z Euro 48 only very slightly SW of 6Z run at 54

12Z Euro 24 slightly SW of 6Z at 30

12Z UKMET: strongest run yet and SW of prior run with LF near Tampa area: TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 74.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 24.09.2022 0 14.7N 74.5W 1007 26 0000UTC 25.09.2022 12 14.2N 77.0W 1005 25 1200UTC 25.09.2022 24 14.9N 79.2W 1004 27 0000UTC 26.09.2022 36 15.4N 81.4W 1003 25 1200UTC 26.09.2022 48 17.0N 82.8W 1002 30 0000UTC 27.09.2022 60 18.9N 84.2W 1001 30 1200UTC 27.09.2022 72 20.9N 85.1W 998 34 0000UTC 28.09.2022 84 23.0N 85.6W 996 42 1200UTC 28.09.2022 96 24.5N 85.8W 994 42 0000UTC 29.09.2022 108 25.6N 85.1W 993 51 1200UTC 29.09.2022 120 26.6N 84.1W 991 55 0000UTC 30.09.2022 132 27.0N 83.2W 986 54 1200UTC 30.09.2022 144 28.3N 82.5W 987 47

@WxWatcher007 is if I'm not mistaken.

12Z UKMET 168 is ~100 miles WSW of Tampa heading NNE to NE. Extrapolating this would lean toward it coming ashore a little north of Tampa.

Euro 168 landfalls SC/NC border.

That UKMET track is from the 0Z as the 12Z is a good bit further west (along 85W through 144).

That's my educated guess.

12Z GEFS mean is significantly west of the last GEFS run and has the largest number of members well to the west in the central GOM since yesterday's 12Z run.

12Z UKMET a big shift back to the SW vs the 0Z run with it nearly stalling at the 85W longitude 200 miles west of Naples: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 69.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 23.09.2022 0 14.4N 69.4W 1009 24 0000UTC 24.09.2022 12 15.1N 71.6W 1008 26 1200UTC 24.09.2022 24 15.0N 74.1W 1007 29 0000UTC 25.09.2022 36 15.0N 76.2W 1005 28 1200UTC 25.09.2022 48 15.8N 78.5W 1004 31 0000UTC 26.09.2022 60 17.3N 80.4W 1002 33 1200UTC 26.09.2022 72 19.1N 82.1W 1000 34 0000UTC 27.09.2022 84 21.2N 82.8W 998 40 1200UTC 27.09.2022 96 23.4N 84.1W 997 38 0000UTC 28.09.2022 108 24.5N 85.0W 995 42 1200UTC 28.09.2022 120 25.2N 85.1W 996 44 0000UTC 29.09.2022 132 25.9N 84.9W 996 48 1200UTC 29.09.2022 144 26.1N 84.8W 996 50

Interestingly, Gaston has restrengthened some per the latest NHC discussion: Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022 300 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022 Gaston is improving in satellite presentation this morning. Convection is re-forming and wrapping around the northern and western sides of the circulation. A recent scatterometer pass showed that Gaston was slightly stronger than the previous advisory and the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The tropical-storm-force wind field was also expanded, especially in the northwestern quadrant based on these data.

From the NHC discussion: "The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, perhaps conservatively since the eastern side of the circulation has not been sampled by scatterometer or aircraft data." "The depression has about a day over warm water in light to moderate shear before all the models blast the system with strong upper- level southwesterly winds. Most of the guidance shows this system becoming a tropical storm before weakening significantly by late this weekend and dissipating early next week. The official wind speed prediction is near the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance HCCA."

From the 11 AM EDT NHC discussion: The latest NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA aids. This prediction is very similar to the previous one, with only slight westward adjustments at days 3-5 to reflect the latest model consensus trends. The moderate to strong deep-layer northeasterly shear over the cyclone is expected to persist through tonight, so only slight strengthening is forecast through early Saturday. But once the shear decreases to less than 10 kt this weekend, more significant intensification is forecast as the cyclone moves over SSTs in excess of 30 deg C. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous one and explicitly calls for rapid intensification as the cyclone crosses the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The system is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and Cuba as a strengthening hurricane, with additional intensification likely once it emerges over the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. In fact, this forecast calls for the system to approach the Florida peninsula as a major hurricane by day 5, which is supported by the latest IVCN and HCCA aids.

In reality per the NHC discussion, #10 is quite possibly already a TS and it is forecasted to be upgraded to one later today. In contrast, #9 is still undergoing strong shear though it also is forecasted to be upgraded later today. #10: "The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, perhaps conservatively since the eastern side of the circulation has not been sampled by scatterometer or aircraft data." "The depression has about a day over warm water in light to moderate shear before all the models blast the system with strong upper- level southwesterly winds. Most of the guidance shows this system becoming a tropical storm before weakening significantly by late this weekend and dissipating early next week. The official wind speed prediction is near the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance HCCA." They could both be upgraded at the next regular advisory. If so, it would seemingly come down to minutes since it would probably be dependent on which one has the earlier issued advisory. If we base it on the just released ones, TD #10 would have the better chance to be called Hermine because TD #10's package was released about 10 minutes earlier than the 11AM for TD #9.