GaWx

This latest area update brings 2022 back down a decent amount vs the average of 2007-21. It is now at +330K vs the prior 15 year average for the date as compared to +390 as of three days ago. Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K 7/16/22: +330K 7/20/22: +360K 7/23/22: +480K 7/26/22: +460K 7/30/22: +440K 8/7/22: +320K 8/10/22: +390K 8/13/22: +330K

The 0Z GFS, Euro, and UKMET have backed way off on the strong low showing up at 12Z going into the NE US. The UKMET backed off from the 12Z's hour 102 TC genesis.

12Z Euro stronger and hits NE as what imho almost has to have been a NS (probably ST) at least before this image considering the warmth of the SSTs:

12Z Euro is stronger and closer to the coast kind of similar to the UK. The key here to me is that it trended somewhat with the 6Z/12Z GFS. At hour 96, this looks like it could easily be a STD though it doesn't look tropical:

12Z UK, which is being labeled as a TC starting here, where SST is 29 C: At 120:

The 12Z UK verbatim per text actually has a TC form at 102 hrs that then goes N into NE. It forms it at 38.2 N, 71.0 W, where SST is at 29 C: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 38.2N 71.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 18.08.2022 108 38.9N 69.0W 1005 27 1200UTC 18.08.2022 120 43.3N 69.6W 1000 27 0000UTC 19.08.2022 132 43.7N 69.6W 1002 27 1200UTC 19.08.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING

This! Like on the 6Z GFS, this forms over 29-30 C SSTs on Tuesday off NC and it remains over 29-30 C for 12 hours. It looks imho like it is at the very least a STS although I lean toward TS before possibly transitioning to a STS.

Look out on the 12Z GFS NE US!

Imho, verbatim, the 6Z GFS does have a NS going into New England whether purely tropical or not as it is at least a STS and probably is a strong TS. I say TS because it first forms a sfc low east of NC where it is a very warm 29-30 C and it then gets down to 996 mb by the time it reaches 40N, which is how far north the 26 C line gets:

All 3 major 0Z models form a sfc low off the SE US coast by early next week that then heads to the Maine/Maritimes area Wed/Thu. This has been hinted at for a week or longer. Anyone else watching this? This could become the next NS.

A quick shower gave me 0.06" this evening.

True but it is still relatively early as the active climo doesn't really get going til late August. If we were to go, say two weeks out with no additional TC and with no indication of anything imminent or on the models, that would tell me a lot more. But as of now, I think that August could easily still end up with 3 NS. A good number of forecasters implied a hyperactive season was a good probability. I don't see it being hyper though I never expected it this season. My current educated wild guess is for an ACE of 120, which would mean active but nothing close to hyper. If we go 2 weeks with nothing new nor imminent, I' will have by then lowered ACE from 120.

Yeah, I posted about 3rd year La Niña ACE from 8 analogs. Strongest was 1894's 135 followed by 2000's 119. And 1985 was a very tough year for the US even with ACE of only 88.

It wouldn't surprise me as models miss a lot of storms, including Colin earlier this season. Taking this further, who's to say there won't be a couple more after that over the next two weeks or so? I'm still sticking with 3 NS for the most likely # of NS this month. Edit: To add: the 0Z EPS was rather active in the E MDR for week 2. Consistent with this, the last 3 Euro op runs ending with today's 12Z have a weak surface low that comes off Africa ~8/19 and then moves WSW due to a rather strong Azores high to its north. This is a low that the EPS has been showing for most of this week's runs.

Thanks for following up on this. This will end up as a respectable four or so day heatwave. Day one was yesterday (8/11). Below are images with 8/11/22 highs, which come from here: https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/tmaxi.php Eyeballing the numbers for 8/11: - UK: Hottest I see is at a station in the London area and was at 33.6 C (92.5 F), close to what models have been predicting. That compares to a normal of ~23 C/73.4 F meaning a notable 19 F warmer than normal. Although this heat won't peak in the UK nearly as hot as the alltime hottest set last month of just over 40 C/104 F due largely to prevailing E surface winds this time instead of the SSE winds that brought the extreme heat directly from France last month, 33.6 C is still notable since this is hotter than the annual hottest of 75% of the years 1900-2014 and the median annual hottest during that period was only 32.2 C: https://www.trevorharley.com/hottest-day-of-each-year-from-1900.html Another way to look at this: considering that the winds are easterly instead of a more southerly direction, this is quite impressive heat. An additional notable thing is the four day duration of this heatwave in the UK. - France: Although N France was close to what S England had, the hottest for all of France appears to have been a blazing 40.9 C/105.6 F! This is in SW France.

I don't know if you've seen these lists, but maybe these would be helpful: https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/publications/author-information/formatting-and-manuscript-components/list-of-acronyms-and-abbreviations/?utm_source=1&utm_medium=1&utm_term=1&utm_content=1&&utm_campaign=1 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/contract.html https://www.fltplan.com/abbreviations.htm

I can't tell if the SAL dust is still here. I ended up getting no more than a few drops from that evening shelf cloud yesterday. Perhaps the SAL dust, which was only near the coast, kept it from raining any further east than it did? Today: perhaps the SAL dust moved out today from the area as I got a very nice ~1.35" late this afternoon from a thunderstorm. I've had 3 days of rain so far this month and each of the 3 gave me 1.35"+ of rainfall. I'm now up to 4.23" mtd, well above the normal of ~2.5"-2.75".

No, the precursor to Colin was a trough off the SE US coast. It developed a closed LLC just offshore from my area. Before that, I got 4" of rain/street flooding. Now that's the kind of tropical system that even I can deal with just fine and actually enjoy the moderate excitement from. No worries about evacuating. No worries about longlasting outages or damage. And as a bonus we got beneficial rainfall.

A big problem to me is the difference between "some" excitement and "too much" excitement. I don't mind "some" excitement as I implied. But we don't get to choose. What will happen will happen. About the only way to know there will not be too much excitement is for it to be boring (say, no hurricane threatening). From my perspective, the problems from "boredom" pale in comparison to the problems from "too much excitement". So, I'm content with boredom (quietness). Or to know, say, that no more than a moderate TS is threatening. But that's just my opinion. Others like you would prefer to take the chance. I respect that you and others feel differently as long as my feelings are also respected. And I respect that people's feelings about this will often change with experiences and circumstances. In my situation, if I didn't have a mainly bedbound family member who has chronic terrible back pain among other things (not to mention the huge responsibility to take care of that family member), I wouldn't feel as worried because everyone could much more easily evacuate. I'm confident that having this situation, alone, would change the perspective of many.

I never said nor even implied that wanting translates into making them happen since it of course does nothing of the sort. My point is that not everyone feels the same way about these and I have the right to speak my mind (although I won't do it repeatedly). Doing this during these slow times is obviously a better time to do it than when active

I was going to say not to mention the obvious that the last thing the sane amongst us who live not too far from the coast want to happen is a hurricane plowing in and likely causing at a minimum temporary major disruptions to our families' and friends' lives due to the huge inconvenience from having to evacuate (especially for disabled bedbound persons and their caregivers like in my situation..I don't even know how I'd be able to do it), alone, and of course the potential for long lasting power outages and worse yet, damage and even casualties for those who try to ride it out. So, ldub's version of "bad news" is the exact opposite for some of us coastal folks. I just feel it is pointless to repeatedly preach the obvious at a wx forum. But I'm human and will speak my mind on this at times. Your comment gave me a perfect time to do so. This is a reminder that hurricanes are huge life disruptors wherever they hit and are not just a game to see where they will go. So, since a quiet season normally means less chance of these severe disruptions, having a quiet season would actually be great news for some people. I don't mind the nonmajor effects. But as regards major effects, you can put me in the "I'll pass" category every time. Regardless, when I post in the tropical threads, I try to do it in as objective a manner as possible. My goal is to be informative and accurate while not allowing anyone to tell what my desires actually are. If what one desires were to affect one's posts, that would take away from their objectivity and thus their value.

This latest area update brings 2022 back up a decent amount vs the average of 2007-21. It is now at +390K vs the prior 15 year average for the date as compared to +320 as of three days ago. Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K 7/16/22: +330K 7/20/22: +360K 7/23/22: +480K 7/26/22: +460K 7/30/22: +440K 8/7/22: +320K 8/10/22: +390K

I just saw this, which was released from the Charleston, SC, WSO about 45 minutes ago and confirms the significant SAL event for here: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 739 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2022 FINALLY, A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE SAHARAN DUST HAS SPREAD OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO COASTAL SC AND GA, RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF HAZE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. JZI IS REPORTING 5SM IN HAZE AS A RESULT. UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE DUST LAYER WILL BE WITH US. BUT THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES THROUGH THURSDAY.

No rain the last 3 days. But today was pretty unique with what is Saharan Air Layer dust, which barely made it up here. The skies were milky and the sun was filtered along with PC skies. It had the look of smoke or thick summer haze. Interesting stuff! Edit: I just saw this, which was released from the Charleston, SC, WSO about 45 minutes ago, which confirms the pretty rare SAL event for here: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 739 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2022 FINALLY, A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE SAHARAN DUST HAS SPREAD OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO COASTAL SC AND GA, RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF HAZE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. JZI IS REPORTING 5SM IN HAZE AS A RESULT. UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE DUST LAYER WILL BE WITH US. BUT THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES THROUGH THURSDAY. Update at 8:10 PM: A strong outflow boundary has just arrived here around sunset from thunderstorms to the west making it suddenly quite windy. We have a shelf cloud of sorts overhead. Will we get rain from this? The radar for now shows only the dry outflow boundary.

I just noticed that the sky here in Savannah, GA, is milky and the sun looks filtered. It has the look of smoke or haze. But something about it looks different. Is this possibly from SAL? Anyone know if SAL is currently extending all of the way to the GA and SC coast? If so, this is fascinating as I don't think it gets here all the way here at this intensity more than rarely.