GaWx

There are a significant number (nearly 25%) of 12Z EPS members landfalling on the CONUS 9/29-10/2 as hurricanes or as a strong TS from TX through NC with also a couple of still offshore threats. At least half of these hit the FL Gulf coast, which is my #1 risk area this season based on third year cold ENSO analogs. Being that this was a more active EPS run than prior ones, I wouldn't be surprised if most of the next ones over the next few days aren't as active. Regardless, this will more than likely be the next potential threat period on the CONUS.

With 12 days still to go, Sept is far from a done deal after Fiona, which itself may become a MH. Keep in mind that as recently as September 10th (just 4 days before the Fiona TC formed on 9/14), people here including myself were considering the possibility of no new TC through 9/20 based on then still very quiet models as even the precursor to Fiona was temporarily quieter. Furthermore, the models including EPS are now making some late Sept W Car noise largely from the AEW now near 43W. Especially with the W Car peak season climo already getting started by then, a TC there then wouldn't be the least bit surprising. On 9/10, even Andy Hazelton said this: "Not a whole lot to look at at the climo peak of hurricane season, behind #Earl. 95L fizzled due to shear. The low riding wave is struggling with SAL (EPS refuses to give up on it but color me skeptical). The proverbial #nextwave coming off is already trending weaker on models."

This AEW is now near 42W (very weak low probably ~11N) continuing westbound and has been pretty inactive the last 2 days as dry, stable air has been interacting with it. There's only scattered convection with it now. The 12Z Euro does have this as a weak low in the W Caribbean 9/26, which then moves NW to the Gulf of Honduras on 9/28. By then, the W Caribbean season is already starting to get into full swing climowise. So, something to keep an eye on. Edit: A good number of 12Z EPS members active with this in W Caribbean 9/26-8.

Looking at the prior 10 years, the average number of hurricanes from storms born in Sept is only two. So, Sept of 2022 has already exceeded that mark with three. Of the last 10 years, only 2020 had more with four and 2022 still has another 12 days to go. Fiona's ACE is likely going to end up quite impressive.

Now a hurricane officially at 70 knots.

Much of the eastern half of PR is getting blasted with very heavy rain along with solid TS force winds. Fiona is quite possibly a hurricane now. Waiting on official confirmation.

The 18Z EPS 144 has fewer left outliers vs the 12Z EPS 150.

12Z UKMET goes NW over far E PR and then moves WNW for short time followed by NW...so quite a shift E from prior run at PR! MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 17.09.2022 TROPICAL STORM FIONA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 63.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 17.09.2022 0 16.3N 63.6W 1005 35 0000UTC 18.09.2022 12 17.2N 64.9W 1003 33 1200UTC 18.09.2022 24 18.4N 65.8W 1001 44 0000UTC 19.09.2022 36 19.0N 67.7W 999 45 1200UTC 19.09.2022 48 20.0N 68.6W 999 46 0000UTC 20.09.2022 60 21.4N 69.9W 996 53 1200UTC 20.09.2022 72 22.4N 70.5W 995 51 0000UTC 21.09.2022 84 23.9N 70.5W 987 57 1200UTC 21.09.2022 96 25.8N 70.0W 978 54 0000UTC 22.09.2022 108 27.8N 69.3W 969 63 1200UTC 22.09.2022 120 30.6N 68.6W 961 73 0000UTC 23.09.2022 132 33.9N 66.5W 953 84 1200UTC 23.09.2022 144 38.7N 61.4W 942 99

Is the 0Z EPS drunk? About 30% of the members landfall on the SE US coast after only 8% at 12Z! Also, fwiw since not a good model, the 0Z CFS hits FL and then skirts the coast up to NC. Earlier runs were OTS. And keep in mind the 12Z JMA's sharp left turn from 168 to 192.

Horrible flooding reported in Guadeloupe. Look out Virgin Islands and PR this weekend and DR Sunday. This has been a very wet storm. And it is going to slow down, a very lethal combination.

Today this looks less impressive as of DMIN although it is starting to refire convection near 11N, 30W. Still watching as quite a few ensemble members still keep this intact near the Caribbean.

A safe miss of the CONUS is easily the best bet on the 12Z EPS. However, fwiw, it has 6 of the 51 members (only 12%) hit the CONUS as a TS+: 2 ME, 1 SC, and 3 FL (2 far south and 1 Melbourne) that then go into the Gulf.

With regard to the CONUS, a safe recurve is clearly the best bet as of now. That has the support of the Euro, GFS suite, UKMET, and CMC. But on the 12Z JMA (slower) from 168 to 192, it gets blocked and turns west at least for a short time from a new high to its north. Also, fwiw, many of the 12Z CMC ensemble members (GEPS) hit the CONUS (2 in NE US, handful FL, and good number Gulf coast). The JMA and GEPS both bigtime suck vs the more credible Euro, GFS, and UKMET, of course. But I thought it was worth mentioning.

This only waned a little after I last posted about this near midday. Now, check it out as we start to head toward DMAX, which is still 5-6 hours away in the E MDR. Convection has again blossomed in a circular pattern and is centered on 11N, 24W. It looks even more impressive than it looked early today. This has the makings of a sleeper as the NHC doesn't mention this in the TWO.

Per NHC, Fiona dropped another 0.2 of latitude between the 5PM (AST) and 8PM positions, which is south of the NHC track. It is now down to 16.1N vs 16.6N at the 11AM position during a period in which it was forecasted to be at 16.6N now. So, it is now 35 miles south of where the 11AM track had it for now.

Headed for NC?

Happy Hour GFS is way west vs 12Z!

12Z EPS implies ~30% risk of a CONUS TS+ landfall based on ~15 of TS+ members landfalling there. Per NHC, Fiona lost 0.3 degrees of latitude the last 6 hours.

I think that is more likely a cat 1 H landfall at WPB on the 12Z Euro (near 990 mb). Look for the 12Z EPS mean to shift SW.

It appears per satellite loops that there is a circulation at 11N, 23W, moving west. Anyone else see this?

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.09.2022 TROPICAL STORM FIONA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 53.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.09.2022 0 16.3N 53.7W 1008 39 0000UTC 16.09.2022 12 16.5N 56.3W 1007 40 1200UTC 16.09.2022 24 16.7N 58.9W 1007 37 0000UTC 17.09.2022 36 17.0N 61.4W 1006 32 1200UTC 17.09.2022 48 17.4N 63.5W 1006 34 0000UTC 18.09.2022 60 18.1N 65.4W 1005 36 1200UTC 18.09.2022 72 17.8N 67.5W 1004 43 0000UTC 19.09.2022 84 19.2N 68.9W 1001 43 1200UTC 19.09.2022 96 19.9N 69.8W 997 56 0000UTC 20.09.2022 108 20.7N 71.2W 994 54 1200UTC 20.09.2022 120 21.3N 72.0W 996 51 0000UTC 21.09.2022 132 22.0N 72.2W 993 47 1200UTC 21.09.2022 144 23.1N 72.2W 990 48

11 AM NHC kept it at 16.6N (straight west since last advisory).

Per satellite loops, it at least appears to be moving ever so slightly south of due west vs the 5AM NHC's ever so slight north of due west. It may very well be as far south as 16.5 or 16.4 N now though sometimes the satellite suggested location doesn't match the actual due to tilt. If it is at 16.4-5 N, that would be slightly south (by ~15 miles) of the 5 AM track's implied position of 16.6-7 N now. If that's true (although 15 miles may not seem like much), that would imply a slight southward track adjustment at 11AM. Other opinions on a likely 11 AM track adjustment?

This shows a slight SW trend of the mean track from 0Z to 6Z EPS. I think there will be more SW adjustments eventually though not necessarily consistently from run to run.

The 6Z EPS has 75% of members at or south of the south coast of the Dominican Republic. Odds of a move into the Gulf are increasing imo (assuming it survives).