GaWx
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0Z ICON landfall about same place as 18Z (maybe slightly north) and a little later
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0Z ICON 18 is slightly SW of 18Z 24 although it is still a tiny bit east of the 12Z 30
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If Ian ends up landfalling south of Tampa and then goes well inland into FL from there, the UKMET will be the big winner as it has had this scenario since the 0Z run of 9/25, eight runs in a row. It had been largely discounted til this last run, but it now has a good shot at a win as the Euro, ICON, and HMON were late to the party. It also was the big winner for Irma in 2017. So, I guess once every five years it gets a big win.
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Because the 18Z shift suggests landfall at only hour 48 per UKMET, Euro, ICON, and HMON as opposed to it being out at at a much longer timeframe, I think this shift has a high chance to be reflecting the reality to come.
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I don't think that there's any nonsense about 18Z, especially because they're doing special balloon launches at 18Z: https://www.wowt.com/2022/09/25/more-weather-balloons-going-up-help-forecast-soon-be-hurricane-ian/?outputType=amp
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UKMET is not so weird anymore. The 18Z Euro is only 25 miles north of it at 48!
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18Z Euro at 48 is a whopping 125 miles east of the 12Z already about to hit the coast south of Tampa!! This is similar to the 18Z UKMET.
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18Z Euro 24 is quite a bit NE of 12Z at 30.
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The 18Z UKMET ends the 60 hour run moving NE ~70 miles S of Orlando, which is near where the 12Z got to but the 18Z gets there 12 hours sooner.
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18 UKMET is not at all giving up on the SE outlier scenario as it is 30 miles NE of the 12Z run moving toward Punta Gorda area once again (75 miles s of Tampa).
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18Z GFS 12 a little SE of 12Z at 18. Let's see how this run goes from here.
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18Z ICON very similar to 12Z UKMET in entire trek through FL and is most SE ICON track since the similar 18Z run of 48 hours ago.
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12Z EPS tracks: mean near operational just offshore Tampa
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12Z EPS mean not surprisingly east of 6Z and similar to 0Z with a mean track near Tampa.
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At hour 120 of 12Z, Euro (Columbus, GA) is 300 miles west of the UKMET (CHS)!
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At hour 120 of 12Z, Euro (Columbus, GA) is 300 miles west of the UKMET (CHS)!
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12Z Euro 72 has a slightly stronger NE US H5 trough than 6Z and 00Z runs. Its Ian location is between those 2 runs at 72.
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12Z Euro 72 is between the 0Z and 6Z runs for same timeframe
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West of 0Z but NE of 6Z
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Actually, the 12Z Euro 48 is 50 miles NE of 6Z Euro run and has a slightly stronger H5 NE US trough than 6Z
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12Z JMA landfalls at Sarasota, barely south of Tampa.
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Agreed regarding winds though the potential for heavy rainfall would be there. Also, the most significant thing about this track imho is how it has maintained its strong SE outlier position and is actually a hair SE of the 0Z into FL. It is way SE of the 6Z Euro. What's interesting is that the UKMET is often on the left side of guidance, the opposite of this. For example, it did about the best with Irma because it was to the left of most, if not all, others.
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This has some of the 12Z tracks as well as the 6Z hurricane model and GFS tracks. Note that the 12Z UKMET hits Charleston, SC, (dark blue track) which is an extreme SE outlier and is also SE of its 0Z track:
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12Z UKMET has a later landfall near Charleston, SC as per the dark blue line in this:
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12Z UKMET landfall into Port Charlotte area, 75 miles south of Tampa. I think this is barely south of the 0Z run and is a major south outlier.
