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BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 ...KARL MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 93.9W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 A burst of deep convection has developed over the southeastern portion of Karl's circulation since the previous advisory. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA buoy 42055 indicate that the low-level center of the tropical cyclone is located near the northeastern edge of that convection due to northwesterly vertical wind shear. Although the aircraft has only measured flight-level and SFMR winds to support an intensity of around 40 kt, the advisory wind speed is maintained at 45 kt due to the recent increase in convection. Also, this gives the plane more time to fully examine the cyclone, as it is possible the strongest winds have yet to be sampled. Continued northwesterly shear and the entrainment of dry mid-level air are likely to cause some weakening over the next day or so, but Karl is forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the coast of Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening and dissipation of the low-level circulation is expected as the cyclone moves over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. Fixes from the aircraft show that Karl has finally begun its anticipated south-southeastward turn, and the initial motion estimate is 155/4 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northwest of Karl is expected to steer the storm south-southeastward through tonight. A southward to south-southwestward motion is forecast on Friday which should bring the center of Karl to the Bay of Campeche coast Friday night or Saturday. The guidance envelope has moved slightly eastward this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. There is still some spread in the models as to how fast Karl will move southward, which results in some timing differences regarding landfall in Mexico. The official forecast is close to the GFEX and the other consensus aids to account for that. Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of the Bay of Campeche. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Oaxaca states in Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion of the warning area in Mexico by late Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 21.7N 93.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 21.0N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 20.0N 93.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 19.1N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.0N 94.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/0000Z 17.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Good question. However, after it is declassified as a TC the remnant surface low goes south inland over MX per the other source I look at.

Thanks for the update. Here's today's 12Z UKMET, which is almost spot on vs its current recon based position. This has its current NE drift stop by tomorrow morning followed by a turn to the SSE the subsequent 48 hours (yes, too weak strengths per the usual but it was by a good margin the best with Ian's track starting within 3 days of FL landfall even with it being much too weak in many runs): MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 12.10.2022 TROPICAL STORM KARL ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 95.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.10.2022 0 21.6N 95.0W 1008 28 0000UTC 13.10.2022 12 22.0N 94.6W 1007 29 1200UTC 13.10.2022 24 22.1N 94.4W 1007 25 0000UTC 14.10.2022 36 21.4N 94.0W 1006 25 1200UTC 14.10.2022 48 20.6N 93.6W 1007 25 0000UTC 15.10.2022 60 20.2N 93.3W 1006 29 1200UTC 15.10.2022 72 20.0N 93.8W 1008 30 0000UTC 16.10.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING

Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 3a NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 700 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 ...KARL MOVING SLOWLY AND BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 94.8W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Karl has not changed much in organization over the past several hours. The central convection is currently minimal, with the primary convection occurring in bands somewhat removed from the center in the eastern semicircle. NOAA buoy 42055 located to the northeast of the center has reported 1-min average winds of up to 33 kt, and based on this plus a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The initial motion is 340/5 kt. A general north-northwestward motion is expected to continue through today. After that, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Karl over northern Mexico. The flow around the southeastern flank of this anticyclone is expected to cause Karl to make a left hairpin turn and move southward to south-southwestward by 36-48 h. The latest track guidance has shifted eastward from the previous runs, with several models now showing a right hairpin turn and a east of south motion toward the coast of Mexico. The new forecast track is shifted eastward from the previous forecast, but lies to the west of the current consensus models. If the models do not shift back westward, additional eastward adjustments may be necessary later today. Karl is currently located within an environment of light to moderate southwesterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. This should allow some strengthening through the next 24 h. After that time, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level relative humidity are likely to cause some weakening before landfall. After Karl moves onshore, rapid decay is expected due to the mountainous terrain, and Karl is likely to dissipate just after 72 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast and is on the high side of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Vera Cruz and Tabasco states in Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting on Thursday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 21.1N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 21.7N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 21.7N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 20.9N 95.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 20.2N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 19.5N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 18.6N 96.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 ...KARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 94.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Bursts of deep convection have continued to develop this evening near and to the northeast of the estimated center. Data from the earlier reconnaissance mission into Karl showed that the circulation was elongated along a south-southeast to north-northwest axis with at least a couple of swirls that are likely rotating around the mean center. The plane did not find flight-level or SFMR winds any stronger than what was reported before the release of the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt, which is slightly above the latest Dvorak satellite estimates. The next reconnaissance mission into Karl is scheduled for Wednesday morning. Karl is moving north-northwestward or 330/5 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. After that time, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Karl over northern Mexico. The flow around the southeastern flank of that anticyclone is expected to cause Karl to turn southwestward Wednesday night. This motion should then bring the cyclone near the coast of Mexico within the watch area on Thursday. The latest dynamical model guidance depicts a sharper turn Wednesday night and the official forecast was adjusted southward, and a bit faster than the previous forecast at 36 h and beyond. This southward adjustment required the government of Mexico to extend the Tropical Storm Watch southward to Roca Partida. The new NHC track forecast is close to the simple consensus aids and is also in good agreement with the ECMWF model. Karl is currently located within an environment of generally light southwesterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. This should allow some strengthening tonight or on Wednesday. After that time, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level relative humidity are likely to cause some weakening before landfall. After Karl moves onshore, rapid decay is expected due to the mountainous terrain, and Karl is likely to dissipate in around 72 hours. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 20.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 21.0N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 21.4N 95.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 21.1N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 20.2N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 19.4N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 15/0000Z 19.1N 97.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

New thread for Karl, which will likely be hanging around for awhile due to expected quite slow movement:

BULLETINTropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 1NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022...KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE......TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERNMEXICO...SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...19.6N 94.4WABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICOABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Tropical Storm Karl has formed over the Bay of Campeche. Aircraft and scatterometer data show a closed circulation with a relatively large radius of maximum winds and a broad area of light and variable winds near the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found believable SFMR wind speeds of 35 kt and flight-level winds up to 46 kt while investigating the system. The scatterometer data also showed a large area of 30-35 kt winds to the north of the center. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on these data. Karl is moving slowly northwestward at an estimated 5 kt. The storm is embedded in a high pressure system, and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Thereafter, the ridge is likely to build westward and steer the cyclone southwestward into the coast of Mexico in a few days. The official forecast is close to the consensus guidance, though this is an uncertain forecast due to the spread in the forecast track models near landfall. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are forecast to be conducive for Karl during the next day or so. This should allow Karl to strengthen before global models suggest the vertical wind shear increases and causes gradual weakening before landfall. Rapid decay is expected once the storm moves inland due to the mountainous terrain. The NHC intensity forecast peaks at 45 kt in 24 h which is close to the SHIPS guidance, though all of guidance is clustered near this value. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 20.3N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 21.2N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 20.7N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake

Do we need a separate thread for Karl? Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Tropical Storm Karl has formed over the Bay of Campeche. Aircraft and scatterometer data show a closed circulation with a relatively large radius of maximum winds and a broad area of light and variable winds near the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found believable SFMR wind speeds of 35 kt and flight-level winds up to 46 kt while investigating the system. The scatterometer data also showed a large area of 30-35 kt winds to the north of the center. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on these data. Karl is moving slowly northwestward at an estimated 5 kt. The storm is embedded in a high pressure system, and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Thereafter, the ridge is likely to build westward and steer the cyclone southwestward into the coast of Mexico in a few days. The official forecast is close to the consensus guidance, though this is an uncertain forecast due to the spread in the forecast track models near landfall. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are forecast to be conducive for Karl during the next day or so. This should allow Karl to strengthen before global models suggest the vertical wind shear increases and causes gradual weakening before landfall. Rapid decay is expected once the storm moves inland due to the mountainous terrain. The NHC intensity forecast peaks at 45 kt in 24 h which is close to the SHIPS guidance, though all of guidance is clustered near this value. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 20.3N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 21.2N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 20.7N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 ...KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 94.4W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

If it is determined that there is a closed surface circulation, Invest 93L could easily be upgraded right to TS Karl very shortly per this, which shows 35 knots: AL, 93, 2022101118, , BEST, 0, 194N, 942W, 35, 1008, DB https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal932022.dat

The 12Z UKMET does nothing tropically with this, but it does have a well organized surface low that moves very slowly north til Thursday followed by a stall and subsequent drift south into MX Saturday. Here is a 12Z UKMET late morning Thursday radar depiction, which actually shows a well organized system, which makes me feel surprised that run didn't call it a TC: For the record, the 0Z UKMET had TCG at hour 36 and then moved slowly NE followed by a curve SE toward just off the NW tip of the Yucatan where it dissipated: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 21.9N 95.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.10.2022 36 21.9N 95.3W 1009 21 0000UTC 13.10.2022 48 23.0N 94.7W 1008 20 1200UTC 13.10.2022 60 23.2N 93.3W 1009 20 0000UTC 14.10.2022 72 22.2N 91.9W 1007 25 1200UTC 14.10.2022 84 21.1N 91.0W 1008 27 0000UTC 15.10.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING

There have been 13 seasons since 1995 that are like 2022 with either a current or oncoming La Niña. Out of these 13, only two (1995 and 2000) didn't have at least one more TC with genesis Oct 22+ for which there were significant land effects in the western basin. Oct 22 is still 11 days out, well beyond a reliable period for models. So, though far from a guarantee, the betting odds pretty heavily favor one more system in 2022 that we're currently totally unaware of that will generate a good amount of discussion within tropical wx forums in late October and/or November. For 2021, I counted the precursor to Wanda, which was Invest 94L from the start and resulted in a powerful nor'easter in the NE US: This idea about the likelihood of one more impactful system is not counting the current SW Gulf Invest 93L should it happen to have significant impact.

The hyperactive forecasts, including all of the seasonal CSUs, will be huge busts although we've pretty much known that for awhile. But your September 7th post about September quoted above is also a huge bust as September ended up quite active as well as above the 30 year average thanks to one of the most active Sept 14-30 periods on record. That shows that models had only about a one week reliable window that day. Looking ahead, the model consensus admittedly doesn't show much and the season could easily per climo even in a La Nina have little left this late with mainly quiet models, especially as regards the CONUS with the projected autumn pattern for the E US. However, as noted above, models can't look out that far reliably. Just one week after you posted on September 7th, it got active again and didn't let up for over 2 weeks. Looking beyond the reliable period for models, 10+ days out or October 19th+ for TC genesis, and considering just the period since 1995, nearly half the seasons still had significant land impacts in the western basin not yet forecastable as of today's date: - 2020: MHs Zeta, Eta, and Iota - 2016: MH Otto - 2012: MH Sandy - 2010: H Tomas - 2009: H Ida - 2008: MH Paloma - 2007: H Noel - 2005: MH Beta - 2001: MH Michelle - 1999: MH Lenny - 1998: MH Mitch Of these: 2020, 16, 10, 08, 07, 05, 99, and 98 were during oncoming or current La Nina. That's 8 of these seasons out of a total of 12 of these since 1995. So, 2/3 of these seasons. So, imo, based on the above, we have at the very least a 50% shot at one more impactful H in the western basin. Edit: If we were in El Niño, I'd likely be predicting no more impactful canes because only 1 of 8 since 1995 had another impactful cane from an Oct 19+ genesis.

Make that two now, Fiona and Ian.

12Z UKMET: doesn't have crossover survival as it falls apart near El Salvador only to reform two days later over water and later get close to Baja as of the end of the text shown below at 144. Per another source which goes out 168 hours, it then hits Baja later on Saturday followed by the moisture moving into the SW US a week from today! TROPICAL STORM JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 84.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 09.10.2022 0 12.4N 84.4W 991 40 0000UTC 10.10.2022 12 12.9N 87.5W 998 41 1200UTC 10.10.2022 24 13.4N 90.0W 1001 36 0000UTC 11.10.2022 36 CEASED TRACKING NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.0N 101.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 13.10.2022 84 15.6N 102.4W 1007 30 1200UTC 13.10.2022 96 16.0N 104.8W 1006 29 0000UTC 14.10.2022 108 16.0N 107.2W 1005 29 1200UTC 14.10.2022 120 16.7N 107.9W 1006 28 0000UTC 15.10.2022 132 18.2N 108.7W 1006 25 1200UTC 15.10.2022 144 20.3N 109.0W 1009 20

The fast motion should help quite a bit though that doesn't mean there won't still be some mudslides and perhaps some river flooding. Meanwhile, the latest UKMET again has a crossover into the E Pacific as a still intact TC, though weakening, that moves all of the way to within just a couple of hundred miles of the S tip of the Baja at 144: HURRICANE JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 81.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 09.10.2022 0 12.6N 81.8W 992 46 1200UTC 09.10.2022 12 12.7N 84.4W 993 35 0000UTC 10.10.2022 24 13.5N 89.2W 1000 34 1200UTC 10.10.2022 36 12.9N 90.9W 998 40 0000UTC 11.10.2022 48 13.2N 93.8W 1000 34 1200UTC 11.10.2022 60 13.1N 96.6W 1003 34 0000UTC 12.10.2022 72 14.5N 98.0W 1004 36 1200UTC 12.10.2022 84 15.0N 100.3W 1003 36 0000UTC 13.10.2022 96 15.7N 102.7W 1002 38 1200UTC 13.10.2022 108 16.0N 105.7W 1001 36 0000UTC 14.10.2022 120 16.4N 106.8W 1003 33 1200UTC 14.10.2022 132 17.2N 107.6W 1005 27 0000UTC 15.10.2022 144 18.2N 107.9W 1006 22

The 10/8 12Z ICON and UKMET bring Julia almost to the S tip of Baja Cal. at the ends of their runs as an intact TC a week from today! The 10/9 12Z UKMET after reformation in the EPAC actually hits Baja south tip on Saturday (10/15) followed by a move of the moisture into southern AZ/NM on Sunday 10/16.

The 12Z Euro after E Nicaragua landfall barely takes the remnants of Julia into the far E Pacific before then taking much of its remaining vorticity northward up into the Gulf followed by a turn ENE across N FL followed by a turn NE all of the way up the US east coast. Wild path! Edit: The 12Z EPS has ~10% of its members do something kind of in a similar way.

The 12Z UKMET has Julia remain a TC into the E Pacific moving WNW paralleling MX 100-150 miles offshore for several days.

This was upgraded to TD 13 at 11 PM EDT. It is forecasted to landfall in Nicaragua late morning Sunday at 75 knots/85 mph though as usual the potential for flooding from very heavy rainfall is the much bigger concern in CA as it was even with the extremely strong Eta, Iota, and Mitch among others: FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 11.9N 69.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 12.4N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 13.2N 80.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 13.3N 83.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 13.9N 85.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0000Z 15.5N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

12Z UKMET a little stronger than 0Z run (keep in mind that this model is almost always biased weak in early stages) and has Nicaragua landfall even earlier by some 8 hours than 0Z run, by ~noon EDT on Sunday, and which is ~20 hours earlier than the run from 12Z yesterday! TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 66.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 06.10.2022 0 11.8N 66.4W 1008 29 0000UTC 07.10.2022 12 11.7N 68.5W 1007 28 1200UTC 07.10.2022 24 12.7N 71.2W 1007 36 0000UTC 08.10.2022 36 13.3N 73.5W 1004 33 1200UTC 08.10.2022 48 13.6N 77.1W 1003 34 0000UTC 09.10.2022 60 13.6N 80.2W 1000 34 1200UTC 09.10.2022 72 13.3N 82.8W 998 37 0000UTC 10.10.2022 84 13.0N 84.7W 1000 31 1200UTC 10.10.2022 96 13.0N 88.6W 1004 27 0000UTC 11.10.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING

With its Honduras landfall it is HF against not only the other hurricane models, but also against all of the dynamic models since they all have it landfall on Nicaragua. Edit: It appears that both the HF and the HWRF are too far north right now.

So far, there are no indications that this month will be quiet. How active, of course, remains to be seen.

Several models including the 12Z Euro, ICON, and JMA are showing low surface pressures being left behind next week in the SW Caribbean after 91L is gone fwiw.