GaWx

The 12Z Euro as well as the 12Z EPS, similarly to the 0Z, are hinting at the possibility of TCG in the C or W Caribbean ~10/31-11/2 with ~25% of EPS members somewhat active fwiw. The Euro has light shear in the SW Caribbean then along with an upper high forming to the N in addition to a strengthening surface high to the NE increasing low level convergence. These all are suggestive of more favorable conditions for TCG in the W Caribbean in ~8-10 days. Climo: Oct 21-31: Nov 1-10:

The 12Z GFS is through hour 252 (with just a 1002 mb low) the weakest it has been in the Caribbean with this system since way back to the 0Z 10/21 run. It had had in nearly all of its runs since then (nine runs) hurricanes at that forecast time (as strong as 938 mb!). Even though I've been harping on the idea of a good chance for one more TC this season with significant land impacts based on the last nine La Niña seasons and 2/3 of La Niña seasons since 1964 having had one form either in late Oct or Nov, this GFS E Caribbean TCG has continued to look ghosty to me based on a general lack of support by other models in the E Caribbean, the GFS seeming to involve something coming off of SA in this genesis (which the GFS suite has been wrong on a good number of times this season), and the rarity of TCG in the E Caribbean vs C or W Caribbean. I'm still on the alert for one more potentially impactful system this season but don't think this E Caribbean GFS TC is the one as it appears bogus to me. OTOH, a decent % of 0Z EPS members is hinting at TCG in the much more favored (per climo) W Caribbean around 10/31 to very early Nov. That's a much more believable possibility to me than this GFS TC. Edit: Despite the weaker start, the 12Z GFS run later goes ape shoot once again with this with a 952 mb H in the NE Caribbean on Nov 5th with it reaching H strength on 11/4. I'm not believing it. The prior run had a H by 11/1, yesterday's 18Z had it by 11/2, and yesterday's 12Z had it by 10/31.

Folks, Keep in mind that this map is showing probabilities. The SE US is in the 33-50% chance range for above normal (based on 30 year average) ("A") temperatures. That means that none of the SE actually has a likelihood of A. Rather, the SE has a higher chance for A than for either N or B. For example, let's say you're on the 40% chance for A line (as is the case for RDU, CLT, CAE, AGS, and MCN). That means your area has a 40% chance for A, 33% chance for N, and 27% chance for B. I got that info from here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal_info.php In my 1st post ITT (two months ago), I listed eight 3rd year cold ENSO analog winters using Eric Webb's tables. Here's how those turned out at ATL: - 1874-5: N (based on AGS, MGM, & SAV being N since ATL N/A) - 1894-5: B - 1910-1: N - 1917-8: B - 1956-7: A - 1975-6: N - 1985-6: N - 2000-1: B Tally for ATL for eight analogs: 3 B, 4 N, and 1 A. So, fwiw based on the 3rd year cold ENSO analogs, the SE US has a very good shot at not having a mild winter. Instead, the higher likelihood is for just one of the three months to be mild. For these eight winters at ATL, here are the # of mild months: - two winters had two - four winters had one - two winters had none Here are the # of cold months: - one winter had two - five winters had one - two winters had none Based on all of this, the best bet is probably for one mild month, one near normal month, and one cold month. The last three of these eight winters were that way. That one cold month would have a good chance to be pretty memorable as were Feb of 1895, Dec of 1910, Dec of 1917, Jan of 1918, and Dec of 2000.

It actually has been on most models for at least several days of runs. Most runs have this low or its remnant moisture either going into the NE US or SE Canada mid next week or else recurving sharply and staying offshore those areas. Edit: The 18Z GFS takes the surface low across Cape Cod and then into Maine.

The last two GFS runs have similar shenanigans. They're giving me ghost vibes because the GFS loves its ghosts, especially late in its runs. The latest example is what apparently won't occur next week. Many GFS/GEFS runs had had a Caribbean TS+ next week with no other model support and now that idea has been dropped. So, it appears that the next real Caribbean TC would be in November, if any at all. As mentioned earlier, November has had more than its share of impactful activity during recent La Niña seasons. So, I'm not counting out that possibility as of now.

Upper 30s (38-39) for all three of 10/19-21 at KSAV with new record low and coldest so early in the season since 2001 on 10/19. KSVN similar except 40 on 10/19. The three sub 40 lows this month at KSAV compares to an average of only 1/2 a day that cold in the full month of October since records started in 1874. The record number of sub 40 lows in October is five with more than three occurring only four times, three times during the cold 1960s and the other time in 2001. Having three sub 40 lows by October 21st is a new record that beat the old record of two sub 40 lows by October 21st set only once (in 1954). Also, October 21st beats the old record earliest for the third sub 40 low by six days (old record of October 27th for the 3rd sub 40 low set both in 1962 and 1965). So, it wasn't just the intensity of this early cold event that was noteworthy for the deep SE US. It was also the duration.

It was 38 at KSAV, the coldest this early in the season since 2001 as well as a new record low for the date. It was 40 at KSVN.

This was by a good margin for that long of a period the smallest % of Octobers without a freeze since records there started. Also, the period 2016-21 had no freeze. This six year no freeze October streak is the longest there on record as it beat the old record of four set twice. Actually, 2016-21 October coldest is 35. The prior longest 35+ streak for October coldest was only three. In addition, all three of 2019-21 had their Oct coldest of 40+. Prior to 2019, there were a mere three Octobers back to 1903 with a coldest of 40+: 2004, 1949, and 1919! This is to me the most telling record. So, to those with more knowledge about KGSO, what is the most likely main reason for this highly anomalous warm streak in October? Is it GW, is it a change of the station, itself, or is it increased heat island effect? After looking at KRDU and KFAY, I think it is some combination as opposed to just from GW. Edit: Prior to 1990, only 33 of 87 (38%) Octobers had no freeze. Since 1990, 21 of 32 (66%) had no freeze!

Now 20/80. Mid October genesis climo still active with a good % that form just off MX later recurving back NE into MX: It finally starts to get less active late in the month though with still a decent level of activity, again including a pretty good % that recurve into MX: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Oct 17 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of Southern Mexico: A broad trough of low pressure has formed a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico and is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin

I'm also watching this as I posted about this elsewhere. It clearly isn't purely tropical, but I wonder if this could be a subtropical storm as it formed earlier near the mid 80s F Gulf Stream before moving NW and has highest winds near 40 knots. Keep in mind that earlier Euro runs going all of the way back 72 hours to the 12Z 10/13 run have been showing something similar forming off of the SE US coast toward this upcoming weekend. This idea has some support from the 12Z ICON and JMA as well as from ~20% of the 12Z EPS members as you hinted at. Also, one can see that the 18Z ICON 120 has it as that map is similar to the 12Z 126. Edit: I forgot to mention that the 12Z UKMET also has something form early this upcoming weekend in the Bahamas that isn't classified as tropical and thus is probably ST.

I wonder if the 12Z Euro storm just off the SE US for the upcoming weekend could be a subtropical storm as it formed earlier near the mid 80s F Gulf Stream before moving NW and has highest winds near 40 knots. Keep in mind that earlier Euro runs going all of the way back 72 hours to the 12Z 10/13 run have been showing something similar forming off of the SE US coast toward this upcoming weekend. This idea has some support from the 12Z ICON and JMA as well as from ~20% of the 12Z EPS members. Edit: I forgot to mention that the 12Z UKMET also has something form early this upcoming weekend in the Bahamas that isn't classified as tropical and thus is probably ST. Also, the 18Z ICON 120 is similar to the 12Z 126 and thus implies it has it, too.

Forecasts are for as cold as upper 30s lows in Statesboro, GA, and low 40s at KSAV 10/19-20. If KSAV gets low 40s, that would be the coldest so early in the season since 2009!

We're having near perfect weather for outdoor activities here this afternoon with temps in the 70s, dewpoints in the 40s, and sunshine.

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 ...KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 93.7W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

For the period September 23rd through October 12th, it has been the coolest at KSAV since way back in 2001! It's been great! Edit: I received 0.45" of rainfall last night. That along with the 0.75" from Ian are the only rainfall amounts I've received going back to Sept 11th other than possibly a few hundredths a couple of days. So, I'll call it only ~1.25" since Sept 11th. However, this is fine with me since my water table was sky high on Sept 10th thanks to a whopping 10" Sept 1-10, 13.25" in August, and 11.98" in July.

From CSU's two week update issued today: "As the enhanced convection shifts slightly to the east over the two weeks, shear conditions may become more favorable for Caribbean tropical cyclone development late this month." During the 13 oncoming or current La Niña seasons since 1995, there have been these storms form in the Caribbean from late Oct through Nov that ended up having significant impact on land areas: 2020: Zeta, Eta, and Iota 2017: Philippe 2016: Otto 2011: Rina 2009: Ida 2008: Paloma 2007: Noel 2005: Beta 1999: Lenny 1998: Mitch These involved 10 of the 13 or over 75% (edited to add Philippe of 2017 and Rina of 2011) of the La Niña seasons since 1995. Edit (somewhat related to the above): check this out regarding November MHs to show how much the warmer globe has influenced the late season: - MH in November 1999-2021: 6 (Iota, Eta, Otto, Paloma, Michelle, Lenny) or an average of one for every 4 seasons - MH in November 1950-1998: 1 (Kate) or only one out of 39 seasons Further edit: - MH in November 1900-1949: 3 (1934, 1932, and 1912) or an average of one every 17 seasons - MH in November 1851-1899: 0 So, a total of 10 MH in November since 1851, with six of those 10 just since 1999.

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 ...KARL MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 93.9W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 A burst of deep convection has developed over the southeastern portion of Karl's circulation since the previous advisory. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA buoy 42055 indicate that the low-level center of the tropical cyclone is located near the northeastern edge of that convection due to northwesterly vertical wind shear. Although the aircraft has only measured flight-level and SFMR winds to support an intensity of around 40 kt, the advisory wind speed is maintained at 45 kt due to the recent increase in convection. Also, this gives the plane more time to fully examine the cyclone, as it is possible the strongest winds have yet to be sampled. Continued northwesterly shear and the entrainment of dry mid-level air are likely to cause some weakening over the next day or so, but Karl is forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the coast of Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening and dissipation of the low-level circulation is expected as the cyclone moves over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. Fixes from the aircraft show that Karl has finally begun its anticipated south-southeastward turn, and the initial motion estimate is 155/4 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northwest of Karl is expected to steer the storm south-southeastward through tonight. A southward to south-southwestward motion is forecast on Friday which should bring the center of Karl to the Bay of Campeche coast Friday night or Saturday. The guidance envelope has moved slightly eastward this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. There is still some spread in the models as to how fast Karl will move southward, which results in some timing differences regarding landfall in Mexico. The official forecast is close to the GFEX and the other consensus aids to account for that. Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of the Bay of Campeche. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Oaxaca states in Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion of the warning area in Mexico by late Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 21.7N 93.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 21.0N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 20.0N 93.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 19.1N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.0N 94.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/0000Z 17.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Good question. However, after it is declassified as a TC the remnant surface low goes south inland over MX per the other source I look at.

Thanks for the update. Here's today's 12Z UKMET, which is almost spot on vs its current recon based position. This has its current NE drift stop by tomorrow morning followed by a turn to the SSE the subsequent 48 hours (yes, too weak strengths per the usual but it was by a good margin the best with Ian's track starting within 3 days of FL landfall even with it being much too weak in many runs): MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 12.10.2022 TROPICAL STORM KARL ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 95.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.10.2022 0 21.6N 95.0W 1008 28 0000UTC 13.10.2022 12 22.0N 94.6W 1007 29 1200UTC 13.10.2022 24 22.1N 94.4W 1007 25 0000UTC 14.10.2022 36 21.4N 94.0W 1006 25 1200UTC 14.10.2022 48 20.6N 93.6W 1007 25 0000UTC 15.10.2022 60 20.2N 93.3W 1006 29 1200UTC 15.10.2022 72 20.0N 93.8W 1008 30 0000UTC 16.10.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING

Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 3a NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 700 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 ...KARL MOVING SLOWLY AND BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 94.8W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Karl has not changed much in organization over the past several hours. The central convection is currently minimal, with the primary convection occurring in bands somewhat removed from the center in the eastern semicircle. NOAA buoy 42055 located to the northeast of the center has reported 1-min average winds of up to 33 kt, and based on this plus a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The initial motion is 340/5 kt. A general north-northwestward motion is expected to continue through today. After that, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Karl over northern Mexico. The flow around the southeastern flank of this anticyclone is expected to cause Karl to make a left hairpin turn and move southward to south-southwestward by 36-48 h. The latest track guidance has shifted eastward from the previous runs, with several models now showing a right hairpin turn and a east of south motion toward the coast of Mexico. The new forecast track is shifted eastward from the previous forecast, but lies to the west of the current consensus models. If the models do not shift back westward, additional eastward adjustments may be necessary later today. Karl is currently located within an environment of light to moderate southwesterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. This should allow some strengthening through the next 24 h. After that time, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level relative humidity are likely to cause some weakening before landfall. After Karl moves onshore, rapid decay is expected due to the mountainous terrain, and Karl is likely to dissipate just after 72 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast and is on the high side of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Vera Cruz and Tabasco states in Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting on Thursday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 21.1N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 21.7N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 21.7N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 20.9N 95.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 20.2N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 19.5N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 18.6N 96.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 ...KARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 94.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Bursts of deep convection have continued to develop this evening near and to the northeast of the estimated center. Data from the earlier reconnaissance mission into Karl showed that the circulation was elongated along a south-southeast to north-northwest axis with at least a couple of swirls that are likely rotating around the mean center. The plane did not find flight-level or SFMR winds any stronger than what was reported before the release of the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt, which is slightly above the latest Dvorak satellite estimates. The next reconnaissance mission into Karl is scheduled for Wednesday morning. Karl is moving north-northwestward or 330/5 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. After that time, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Karl over northern Mexico. The flow around the southeastern flank of that anticyclone is expected to cause Karl to turn southwestward Wednesday night. This motion should then bring the cyclone near the coast of Mexico within the watch area on Thursday. The latest dynamical model guidance depicts a sharper turn Wednesday night and the official forecast was adjusted southward, and a bit faster than the previous forecast at 36 h and beyond. This southward adjustment required the government of Mexico to extend the Tropical Storm Watch southward to Roca Partida. The new NHC track forecast is close to the simple consensus aids and is also in good agreement with the ECMWF model. Karl is currently located within an environment of generally light southwesterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. This should allow some strengthening tonight or on Wednesday. After that time, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level relative humidity are likely to cause some weakening before landfall. After Karl moves onshore, rapid decay is expected due to the mountainous terrain, and Karl is likely to dissipate in around 72 hours. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 20.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 21.0N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 21.4N 95.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 21.1N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 20.2N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 19.4N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 15/0000Z 19.1N 97.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

New thread for Karl, which will likely be hanging around for awhile due to expected quite slow movement:

BULLETINTropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 1NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022...KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE......TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERNMEXICO...SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...19.6N 94.4WABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICOABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Tropical Storm Karl has formed over the Bay of Campeche. Aircraft and scatterometer data show a closed circulation with a relatively large radius of maximum winds and a broad area of light and variable winds near the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found believable SFMR wind speeds of 35 kt and flight-level winds up to 46 kt while investigating the system. The scatterometer data also showed a large area of 30-35 kt winds to the north of the center. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on these data. Karl is moving slowly northwestward at an estimated 5 kt. The storm is embedded in a high pressure system, and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Thereafter, the ridge is likely to build westward and steer the cyclone southwestward into the coast of Mexico in a few days. The official forecast is close to the consensus guidance, though this is an uncertain forecast due to the spread in the forecast track models near landfall. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are forecast to be conducive for Karl during the next day or so. This should allow Karl to strengthen before global models suggest the vertical wind shear increases and causes gradual weakening before landfall. Rapid decay is expected once the storm moves inland due to the mountainous terrain. The NHC intensity forecast peaks at 45 kt in 24 h which is close to the SHIPS guidance, though all of guidance is clustered near this value. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 20.3N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 21.2N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 20.7N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake

Do we need a separate thread for Karl? Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Tropical Storm Karl has formed over the Bay of Campeche. Aircraft and scatterometer data show a closed circulation with a relatively large radius of maximum winds and a broad area of light and variable winds near the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found believable SFMR wind speeds of 35 kt and flight-level winds up to 46 kt while investigating the system. The scatterometer data also showed a large area of 30-35 kt winds to the north of the center. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on these data. Karl is moving slowly northwestward at an estimated 5 kt. The storm is embedded in a high pressure system, and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Thereafter, the ridge is likely to build westward and steer the cyclone southwestward into the coast of Mexico in a few days. The official forecast is close to the consensus guidance, though this is an uncertain forecast due to the spread in the forecast track models near landfall. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are forecast to be conducive for Karl during the next day or so. This should allow Karl to strengthen before global models suggest the vertical wind shear increases and causes gradual weakening before landfall. Rapid decay is expected once the storm moves inland due to the mountainous terrain. The NHC intensity forecast peaks at 45 kt in 24 h which is close to the SHIPS guidance, though all of guidance is clustered near this value. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 20.3N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 21.2N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 20.7N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake