GaWx

Indeed, outflow is already looking strong! The series of NHC climo maps showing the history of tracks for ten day genesis periods going back to 1851 is often a good tool to keep in the back of one's mind to try to help in forecasting discussions like this. The link below is to geneses during OCT 1-10, which would more than likely be the period to cover this one should it form. It suggests that the best chances to form would be either early (mainly between 50W and the LAs) or later in the Caribbean west of 70W (assuming it gets there). Since that link goes only to 2015, I'll point out that a whopping four TCs from just the last six seasons had genesis during OCT 1-10 in the W Caribbean: -Nate of 2017 -Michael of 2018 -Delta and Gamma of 2020 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png

Indeed, this is by far the strongest the CMC has had this. @Iceresistance recently started a thread about this wave:

The 12Z UKMET, like its prior runs, has no TC genesis formally noted. But as I said, it is often conservative with TCG and thus often misses genesis. If it ever shows TCG for this, that would be noteworthy to me. Meanwhile, the 12Z CMC fwiw has a hurricane in the central and western Caribbean. This is by far its strongest run with this so far. Even the worst models sometimes give worthy hints. *Edit: The 12Z GEFS as measured by both the mean precipitation and the individual members looks to me to be about the most active GEFS run yet in and near the eastern Caribbean.

This MDR wave ranks up with the precursors to Bonnie, Fiona, and Ian as regards the amount of MDR convection and it appears to have some organization. Thus I think its chances of resulting in a TC at some point are rather high though predicting later destinations (IF TCG occurs at some point) whether CA, CONUS, both, and/or other places (including a sharp recurve east of the CONUS with or without landfall elsewhere) is quite a challenge to say the least at this very early pre-TC stage. Just think about how difficult Ian was to predict just two days out from FL as a very strong hurricane! My favorite model of late, the UKMET, currently doesn't have TC genesis from this at 0Z though it is often conservative as regards genesis. I'll be looking to see whether the 12Z as well as future runs do the same. Fwiw, the 12Z GFS at hour 48 (near 54W in the MDR) along with the 6Z are the two most active runs of that model with this at that location. So, its subtle trend suggests it may be just now starting to catch onto it.

Who are you referring to in saying "we all"?

Looking back to the 0Z 9/25 runs at where the models had FL landfalls: 0Z 9/25: ICON Venice CMC Cedar Key GFS Destin Euro Sarasota UKMET Port Charlotte 12Z 9/25: ICON Sarasota CMC Apalachee Bay GFS Apalachee Bay Euro Tampa UKMET Venice 0Z 9/26: ICON Venice CMC Apalachee Bay GFS Apalachee Bay Euro Cedar Key UKMET Port Charlotte 12Z 9/26: ICON Tampa CMC Apalachicola GFS Tampa Euro Big Bend UKMET Port Charlotte 0Z 9/27: ICON Venice CMC Big Bend GFS Sarasota Euro Venice UKMET just N of Ft Myers 12Z 9/27: ICON Port Charlotte CMC Tampa GFS just N of Port Charlotte Euro Port Charlotte UKMET 20 miles S of Ft. Myers 0Z 9/28: ICON 15 miles S of Port Charlotte CMC Venice GFS Port Charlotte Euro Port Charlotte UKMET Port Charlotte My grades on FL landfall only (i.e., excluding SC landfall) for 9/25-8 runs: UKMET A- ICON B Euro C- GFS D CMC F

Our highest winds were only near 40 mph (in a couple of gusts) and we got only 0.75" of rain. There were virtually no power outages thank goodness. We got hit much harder by the precursor to Colin on July 1st, which gave us 4" of rain within 3 hours and some flooding. That center was much closer to us as it passed within only ~30 miles to the E and SE. All in all, we were quite fortunate with Ian.

Absolutely correct, thankfully! That was what the UKMET had been suggesting since the 12Z 9/26 run with no runs since then closer than Charleston for landfall even while the Euro and GFS continued to have landfalls in this area for several days afterward. Our highest winds were only near 40 mph (in a couple of gusts) and we got only 0.75" of rain. There were virtually no power outages thank goodness. We got hit much harder by the precursor to Colin on July 1st, which gave us 4" of rain within 3 hours and some flooding. That center was much closer to us as it passed within only ~30 miles to the E and SE.

000 WTNT34 KNHC 302043 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 ...IAN BECOMES POST-TROPICAL BUT THE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WIND THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 79.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

000 WTNT34 KNHC 302043 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 ...IAN BECOMES POST-TROPICAL BUT THE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WIND THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 79.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

Conway, SC, data suggests center passing just east? They're at 33.8N, 79.0. Note the north wind: 30 Sep 4:15 pm 68 66 94 N 13G24 1.25 Lt Rain OVC006 28.96 981.7 28.99 0.05 30 Sep 3:55 pm 66 64 94 N 21G32 2.00 Hvy Rain OVC008 28.98 982.4 29.01 0.20 Edit: And now at 4:45 PM, a WNW wind as the center apparently passes just to its north: 30 Sep 4:35 pm 66 66 100 WNW 9 1.00 Lt Rain OVC004 28.98 982.4 29.01 0.06

Conway, SC, data suggests center passing just east? They're at 33.8N, 79.0. Note the north wind: 30 Sep 4:15 pm 68 66 94 N 13G24 1.25 Lt Rain OVC006 28.96 981.7 28.99 0.05 30 Sep 3:55 pm 66 64 94 N 21G32 2.00 Hvy Rain OVC008 28.98 982.4 29.01 0.20 Edit: And now at 4:45 PM, a WNW wind as the center apparently passes just to its north: 30 Sep 4:35 pm 66 66 100 WNW 9 1.00 Lt Rain OVC004 28.98 982.4 29.01 0.06

Georgetown and about one hour later than when Josh declared landfall 20 miles to the SW makes much more sense and is consistent with the Georgetown obs I was seeing and posting

Georgetown makes much more sense as opposed to McClellanville. I did misquote the NHC's 2 PM update in my prior post saying hours til landfall when it had not quite made landfall. Apologies for that.

Thanks for the clarification. And now the NHC just said that it is hours from landfall. Makes much more sense.

Winds are now strong from the NW at Georgetown with SLP falling even more rapidly. It doesn't jibe with what Josh and Dr Knabb said about landfall already occurring.

Winds are now strong from the NW at Georgetown with SLP falling even more rapidly. It doesn't jibe with what Josh and Dr Knabb said.

If the main center really came inland like Dr. Knabb said just SW of McClellanville, which is ~25 miles SW of Georgetown, why are the winds at Georgetown still strong from the north? A low to its SW would as you know be giving G'town SE to E winds, not N winds. Also, the SLP is still falling rapidly there at 29.10" as of 1:35 PM.

If the main center really came inland like Dr. Knabb said, just SW of McClellanville, which is ~25 miles SW of Georgetown, why are the winds at Georgetown still strong from the north? A low to its SW would be giving G'town SE to E winds, not N winds. Also, the SLP is still falling rapidly there at 29.10" as of 1:35 PM. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=kgge

Weird. That means that the LLC turned sharply left and moved ~25 mph since 2 hours ago, when it was near the 41004 buoy 50 miles away!

I don't see how what is on radar very near the coast can be the surface center. That imho almost has to be some kind of eddy. The center was near the 41004 buoy just 1.5 hours ago and that's ~65 miles ESE of Charleston. It can't be onshore that fast.

I'm guessing, based on it being near the 32.5N, 79.1W buoy at 11:30 AM, that landfall will be in the upper part of the SC coast around mid-afternoon. If Ian continues mainly northward and doesn't landfall til near Myrtle Beach, it could be as late as ~4 PM. But if it turns left sharply toward Georgetown, it could landfall as early as ~2PM. Looking at the latest reports from the SC coast, the SLP is now lowest and falling most rapidly at Georgetown (ignore the Charleston Waterfront Park SLP, which always runs way lower than nearby stations and is thus bogus). As of 12:35 PM, it was 29.13"/986 mb. An hour earlier it was at 29.25" and two hours earlier it was at 29.36": https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=kgge

What you see on radar is not the surface center. That is some kind of eddy. The center was near the 41004 buoy just 1.5 hours ago and that's ~65 miles ESE of Charleston. It can't be onshore that fast.

Latest report (11:20 AM) from the 41004 buoy, which is ~65 miles ESE of Charleston at 32.5N, 79.1W, had a SLP down to 29.92"/979 mb with a south wind at only 8 knots: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004</i><br

Latest report (11:20 AM) from the 41004 buoy, which is ~65 miles ESE of Charleston at 32.5N, 79.1W, had a SLP down to 29.92"/979 mb with a south wind at only 8 knots: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004</i><br