GaWx

The recon had it at 26.5N, 70.5W a little before 2 PM EST. The 10AM NHC forecast for 7 PM is for 27.0N, 70.5W. So, Nicole is already as far west as and 35 miles south of the NHC position for 5 hours later! Does anyone feel confident about the implications on future track adjustments? Further south? Or something different?

I think the 12Z UKMET track is probably too far north because it initialized at 26.3 N, 69.1 W. The NHC actual position for then was 25.9 N, 69.1 W. This means Nicole was initialized by the 12Z UKMET ~30 miles too far north.

12Z UKMET: landfall near/just south of Cape Canaveral, which is similar to its prior run and 100+ miles north of 6Z Euro, 12Z GFS, and 12Z JMA. It is similar to the 12Z CMC and just north of the 12Z ICON. So, we have an interesting battle between Euro/GFS/JMA and UKMET/ICON/CMC. Euro 12Z will be out soon. 12Z UKMET: TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.3N 69.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 07.11.2022 0 26.3N 69.1W 1004 37 0000UTC 08.11.2022 12 26.9N 70.8W 1002 33 1200UTC 08.11.2022 24 27.6N 72.0W 1001 36 0000UTC 09.11.2022 36 27.4N 74.6W 1000 45 1200UTC 09.11.2022 48 27.0N 76.2W 998 42 0000UTC 10.11.2022 60 27.0N 78.5W 997 45 1200UTC 10.11.2022 72 28.4N 81.1W 996 38 0000UTC 11.11.2022 84 29.2N 83.2W 997 31 1200UTC 11.11.2022 96 30.8N 83.3W 1001 29 0000UTC 12.11.2022 108 34.8N 80.3W 1000 33 1200UTC 12.11.2022 120 40.2N 73.5W 992 46 0000UTC 13.11.2022 132 48.7N 64.6W 983 41 1200UTC 13.11.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING

7PM TWO: Southwestern Atlantic: An area of low pressure located more than 300 miles north of Puerto Rico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move generally northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic where environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form in the next day or so. The system is then forecast to turn westward or west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic by the middle part of this week where additional development is possible. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas beginning in the early to middle part of this week. Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by early Monday. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and in products from your local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3722318-desantis-warns-floridians-to-prepare-for-tropical-disturbance-invest-98l/ This is the first article I've seen regarding FL preps. It has interesting wording as it says, "Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) on Sunday urged residents to prepare for a potential tropical depression that could hit the state’s east coast later this week." Prepare for a potential "TD"? Really? That's like telling Chicago to prepare for 1" of snow. Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS landfalls between Stuart and WPB as a cat 2 H Thursday morning.

Keep in mind that shear and 200 mb winds have been pretty high to this point. They'll be dropping per model consensus to unusually low levels for November over the next two days on the projected track while traversing 82 F SSTs. That's when models have it get better organized.

Way too early to tell. If this were to come into the east coast as a cat 2, it could. I think a cat 2 or even cat 3 at the extreme is a realistic possibility coming into the east coast of FL considering the strong gradient due to the very strong NE high as well as based on the history of WSW/westward moving hurricanes off the SE coast below a strong ridge and considering very warm (above normal) SSTs in the SW Atlantic along with the possibility of very low shear for Nov. If there is a GFS track, that could get your area a hurricane warning for potential cat 1 winds assuming enough speed of movement across FL.

The 12Z Euro takes Invest 98L all of the way up the east coast first as a strong TC in FL followed by a transitioning nor'easter up to the NE US.

12Z Euro landfalls at 96 near Stuart at 998 mb. Almost identical to 12Z UKMET on timing and location. I'd bet heavily on it actually landfalling stronger than 998 mb. Edit: Then the 12Z Euro recurves much more sharply than recent runs and ends up in NE FL at 120 followed by a strengthening to 992 mb just off Delmarva at 144 as a big nor'easter. So, this storm looks to be a major wx maker from FL through the NE US.

1. 12Z HWRF landfalls at Stuart, FL, like the 12Z UKMET but 12 hours earlier (7PM Wednesday) and as a cat 2 H. 2. More aggressive wording on 2PM TWO vs 8AM with it saying a "storm" is likely to form rather than just a depression: Southwestern Atlantic: An area of low pressure located more than 200 miles north of Puerto Rico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move northward and then northwestward into the southwestern Atlantic where environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form in the next day or so. The system is then forecast to turn westward or west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic by the middle part of this week where additional development is possible. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas beginning in the early to middle part of this week. Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by early Monday. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and in products from your local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

12Z GEFS: 90% of 31 members landfall in FL (all Cape Canaveral southward) centered near West Palm Beach. They landfall between 7AM Wednesday and 7PM Thursday with most at some point Wednesday night and just about all as a cat 1 or 2 hurricane.

12Z UKMET landfalls near Stuart, FL, Thursday morning. It then goes WNW across C FL to the NE GOM followed by a sharp recurve to just off the SC coast as a somewhat restrengthening storm (becoming extratropical then?): NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 24.7N 69.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 07.11.2022 24 24.7N 69.3W 1005 33 0000UTC 08.11.2022 36 25.9N 70.1W 1003 40 1200UTC 08.11.2022 48 27.0N 70.8W 1004 34 0000UTC 09.11.2022 60 27.0N 72.9W 1004 39 1200UTC 09.11.2022 72 26.1N 75.3W 1002 43 0000UTC 10.11.2022 84 25.8N 77.4W 1002 40 1200UTC 10.11.2022 96 26.9N 79.7W 1000 38 0000UTC 11.11.2022 108 28.0N 82.2W 997 36 1200UTC 11.11.2022 120 29.1N 83.6W 999 27 0000UTC 12.11.2022 132 30.6N 82.7W 1000 27 1200UTC 12.11.2022 144 32.7N 79.2W 997 38 I'd ignore the wind speed forecast as the UKMET always is too low in the early stages. The track is what is most important.

As was mentioned earlier, there has never been a US election with an Atlantic hurricane threatening a portion of the lower 48 so close to Election Day though PR did have to deal with flooding rainfall from TS Klaus in 1984 on Election Day: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Klaus_(1984) Keep these in mind: "A watch is issued when hurricane conditions are a possibility within 48 hours. A warning is issued when a hurricane is expected in an area within 36 hours." Based on the possibility of hurricane conditions in parts of FL on Wednesday night, there could easily be not just a H watch but even a H warning already issued on Election Day for part of FL! A watch could be issued Monday night. The implications of this possibility as regards the upcoming election in FL are totally unpredictable when considering preparations as well as the typical chaos several days in advance of a hurricane.

1. The last few runs of models all have a TC eventually. So, I don't think we're looking at just the STC option any more. 2. Now that we're closer, it appears that the wx on Election Day will not be that bad in the SE US (other than coastal/marine). 3. However, the models are now all progging a TS or hurricane vs many not doing that before. Any direct impact to the SE US from this wouldn't start before Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night. IF there really is going to be a hurricane that starts directly impacting FL (SE or further north depending on what track it takes) Wednesday PM and keeping in mind the panic and prep that always occurs 1-2 days before in addition to evacuations, what do folks here think will happen as regards Election Day, which has its own chaos? Wednesday would already be too late for the most part with it starting to come in late that day. Does anyone think it will have to be postponed in (parts of) Florida? Keep in mind that this situation would be totally unprecedented. I've yet to read anything about this.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022 1. Southwestern Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The trough is forecast to move northward over the southwestern Atlantic by Sunday, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form north of Hispaniola. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form during the early part of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to middle part of next week. The disturbance is also expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this weekend. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Now up to 50% in the 5 day: 8PM TWO Southwestern Atlantic: A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by the latter part of the weekend. The system is initially expected to be very broad and disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early part of next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form during the early to middle portion of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

The 12Z UKMET, which has a TS hitting Cape Canaveral at 144 moving NW, has at 168 a still well organized low S of Macon, GA, moving N. At that time, it's rain shield expands greatly with moderate to heavy rains all of the way from the NE GOM to NE AL/Atlanta to SW PA, east to DC, and south to most of VA and NC. This is ahead of a rapidly SEward moving strong cold front that extends from Ohio to TX. If it were to play out similarly, this could end up a pretty major event for much of the SE US, including providing much needed generous rains.

The 12Z UKMET, which as mentioned has a TS hitting Cape Canaveral at 144 moving NW, has at 168 a still well organized low S of Macon, GA, moving N. At that time, it's rain shield expands greatly with moderate to heavy rains all of the way from the NE GOM to Atlanta to SW PA, east to DC, and south to most of VA and NC. This is ahead of a rapidly SEward moving strong cold front that extends from Ohio to TX. If it ends up playing out similarly, this could end up a major event for much of the E US.

Model consensus is forecasting 500 mb heights that are as high as 2.5 SD above the mean for early November in the NE US Wednesday night. That is equivalent to saying 500 mb hts that are at the 99% percentile meaning hts that high or higher in early November there happen only 1% of the time. With that strong of a high to the north, the SW Atlantic/Bahamas/SE US is in a highly unusual pattern for early November as regards tropical potential. With only 8 TCs having formed since 1851 in the SW Atlantic Nov 1-10 (see link below) and considering this highly anomalous pattern, there's not much historical track data/climo to utilize to predict what will happen. So even though none of those 8 SW Atlantic originating TCs hit the US, that doesn't mean much in this very unusual pattern: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/nov_1_10.png If we incorporate the current SW Atlantic SSTs, we get even further from normal early Nov tropical potential. They're currently 28 to 29 C (82-84 F), which is ~1C/2F warmer than the normal and near the normal for mid October (normal found here): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/SST/AL_10_OCT_1971-2000_RSST.gif Along with this very strong H5 ridge to the north and warm SSTAs, 200 mb wind speeds are forecasted to plunge well below normal early to mid next week in the SW Atlantic. So, shear may become unusually light then. Considering all of the above, the NHC has quite a challenge and will make forecasting discussions quite interesting.

Beside the just noted 12Z GFS landfalling at Jupiter, FL, late Thursday with a H, the 12Z CMC and UKMET both have a NW moving TS centered near Cape Canaveral at hour 144 (Thursday morning). Here is the 12Z UKMET: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 26.1N 71.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.11.2022 96 26.0N 72.6W 1007 32 0000UTC 09.11.2022 108 25.3N 74.0W 1007 35 1200UTC 09.11.2022 120 26.2N 75.1W 1006 39 0000UTC 10.11.2022 132 27.0N 78.1W 1004 40 1200UTC 10.11.2022 144 28.5N 80.8W 1003 42

From NWS Charleston, SC: gales and major coastal flooding possible Mon-Wed for SC/GA and this may occur even if there is no actual STC or TC: TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS ARE RISING AS FULL MOON ON NOVEMBER 8TH APPROACHES. ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANAMOLIES TO INCREASE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AN EVEN STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW COULD PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL ANOMALIES THAT MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAUGE. COASTAL FLOODING COULD BEGIN TODAY ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES AND AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND MUCH OF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TIDE LEVELS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY WILL BE NEEDED.

From NWS Charleston, SC: gales and moderate to major coastal flooding possible Mon-Wed for SC/GA and this may occur even if there is no actual STC or TC: TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS ARE RISING AS FULL MOON ON NOVEMBER 8TH APPROACHES. ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANAMOLIES TO INCREASE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AN EVEN STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW COULD PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL ANOMALIES THAT MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAUGE. COASTAL FLOODING COULD BEGIN TODAY ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES AND AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND MUCH OF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TIDE LEVELS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY WILL BE NEEDED.

Webb's tables go back to 1850. Based on his tables for that period, there was actually one quad or even quint dip (depending on how one might count it) cold ENSO although it just missed being a quad dip La Niña. Instead, it was a triple dip weak La Niña with dips centered on March of 1873, March of 1874, and September of 1874. Then there were dips in August of 1875 and May of 1876 that were to -0.6 C, but these two dips were barely too short-lived to count as La Niña. Fwiw, I treat this period as a quad dip cold ENSO based on number of consecutive fall/winter periods: 1872-3 through 1875-6. It had trimonths that were -0.1 C or colder from JFM of 1872 all the way through JAS of 1876. That's ~4.5 years of cold ENSO uninterrupted. Webb's tables have one triple peak El Niño: 1939-40 through 1941-2. Also, I see a couple of three consecutive fall/winter warm ENSO periods: - 1883-4 (warm neutral) followed by 1884-5 & 1885-6 both being El Niño; this period had +0.1+ C JFM of 1883 through JFM of 1886 meaning three years uninterrupted. - 1864-5 and 1865-6 were both El Niño followed by 1866-7 being warm neutral. This period had +0.1+ C from JJA of 1864 through JFM of 1867 (2 years, 7 months uninterrupted). So, I count a total of three triple peak warm ENSO periods since 1850. But I count nine triple dip cold ENSO periods (including the current one and also the one quad as noted). So, 9-3 in favor of the triple dips vs triple peaks. Reason: I don't know. Possibly random? If triple dips and triple peaks happened to have about the same true probability, getting 75% of them one way vs 25% the other way in a sample size of only 12 isn't that far fetched. So, we really don't know for sure that the underlying true chance for a triple dip is higher than that for a triple peak. Or maybe it really is higher but not by much. However, my wild guess is that it is somewhat higher fwiw. Looking at his tables, I count ~45 fall/winters that are La Niña and El Niño, respectively. Looking at the NOAA ONI table for 1950+, I count 27 La Niña and 26 El Niño. So, the underlying true probability of each in any one fall/winter would at least appear to be similar. Webb's Nino 3.4 based ENSO tables: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

The 18Z GEFS is still another run that suggests significant effects (rain and wind) quite possible over E FL on US Election Day, something that could reduce turnout. Reduction % in turnout due to wx tends to not be equal for all sides. Thus it could have a significant effect on the outcome of close races. I looked back every two years to see if there were any previous US Election Days marred by an Atlantic basin tropical or subtropical cyclone. I found none affecting the lower 48 states. But I did find 1984's TS Klaus (see link below) that directly affected PR on Election Day (11/6). So, this system could make history in the lower 48 as very likely the first Atlantic TC or STC affecting a portion on Election Day. 1984's Klaus track is here:

After three very wet months that brought my water table very high in early Sept, I measured rainfall during only one period in October, the night of 10/12-13, and it was 0.45". This compares to a normal of nearly 4"! It looks like the dryness of La Niña, which had made it extremely dry here from the middle of Nov of last year through May of this year, has taken back over. Actually, going way back to September 11th, I've received a mere 1.25" and that includes 0.75" from Ian! It was a pleasantly cool October with lows ~5 BN and highs ~2 BN yielding a greater than normal October daily range due to the dryness. It was easily the coolest October since 2011.