GaWx

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 ...KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 94.4W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

If it is determined that there is a closed surface circulation, Invest 93L could easily be upgraded right to TS Karl very shortly per this, which shows 35 knots: AL, 93, 2022101118, , BEST, 0, 194N, 942W, 35, 1008, DB https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal932022.dat

The 12Z UKMET does nothing tropically with this, but it does have a well organized surface low that moves very slowly north til Thursday followed by a stall and subsequent drift south into MX Saturday. Here is a 12Z UKMET late morning Thursday radar depiction, which actually shows a well organized system, which makes me feel surprised that run didn't call it a TC: For the record, the 0Z UKMET had TCG at hour 36 and then moved slowly NE followed by a curve SE toward just off the NW tip of the Yucatan where it dissipated: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 21.9N 95.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.10.2022 36 21.9N 95.3W 1009 21 0000UTC 13.10.2022 48 23.0N 94.7W 1008 20 1200UTC 13.10.2022 60 23.2N 93.3W 1009 20 0000UTC 14.10.2022 72 22.2N 91.9W 1007 25 1200UTC 14.10.2022 84 21.1N 91.0W 1008 27 0000UTC 15.10.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING

There have been 13 seasons since 1995 that are like 2022 with either a current or oncoming La Niña. Out of these 13, only two (1995 and 2000) didn't have at least one more TC with genesis Oct 22+ for which there were significant land effects in the western basin. Oct 22 is still 11 days out, well beyond a reliable period for models. So, though far from a guarantee, the betting odds pretty heavily favor one more system in 2022 that we're currently totally unaware of that will generate a good amount of discussion within tropical wx forums in late October and/or November. For 2021, I counted the precursor to Wanda, which was Invest 94L from the start and resulted in a powerful nor'easter in the NE US: This idea about the likelihood of one more impactful system is not counting the current SW Gulf Invest 93L should it happen to have significant impact.

The hyperactive forecasts, including all of the seasonal CSUs, will be huge busts although we've pretty much known that for awhile. But your September 7th post about September quoted above is also a huge bust as September ended up quite active as well as above the 30 year average thanks to one of the most active Sept 14-30 periods on record. That shows that models had only about a one week reliable window that day. Looking ahead, the model consensus admittedly doesn't show much and the season could easily per climo even in a La Nina have little left this late with mainly quiet models, especially as regards the CONUS with the projected autumn pattern for the E US. However, as noted above, models can't look out that far reliably. Just one week after you posted on September 7th, it got active again and didn't let up for over 2 weeks. Looking beyond the reliable period for models, 10+ days out or October 19th+ for TC genesis, and considering just the period since 1995, nearly half the seasons still had significant land impacts in the western basin not yet forecastable as of today's date: - 2020: MHs Zeta, Eta, and Iota - 2016: MH Otto - 2012: MH Sandy - 2010: H Tomas - 2009: H Ida - 2008: MH Paloma - 2007: H Noel - 2005: MH Beta - 2001: MH Michelle - 1999: MH Lenny - 1998: MH Mitch Of these: 2020, 16, 10, 08, 07, 05, 99, and 98 were during oncoming or current La Nina. That's 8 of these seasons out of a total of 12 of these since 1995. So, 2/3 of these seasons. So, imo, based on the above, we have at the very least a 50% shot at one more impactful H in the western basin. Edit: If we were in El Niño, I'd likely be predicting no more impactful canes because only 1 of 8 since 1995 had another impactful cane from an Oct 19+ genesis.

Make that two now, Fiona and Ian.

12Z UKMET: doesn't have crossover survival as it falls apart near El Salvador only to reform two days later over water and later get close to Baja as of the end of the text shown below at 144. Per another source which goes out 168 hours, it then hits Baja later on Saturday followed by the moisture moving into the SW US a week from today! TROPICAL STORM JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 84.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 09.10.2022 0 12.4N 84.4W 991 40 0000UTC 10.10.2022 12 12.9N 87.5W 998 41 1200UTC 10.10.2022 24 13.4N 90.0W 1001 36 0000UTC 11.10.2022 36 CEASED TRACKING NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.0N 101.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 13.10.2022 84 15.6N 102.4W 1007 30 1200UTC 13.10.2022 96 16.0N 104.8W 1006 29 0000UTC 14.10.2022 108 16.0N 107.2W 1005 29 1200UTC 14.10.2022 120 16.7N 107.9W 1006 28 0000UTC 15.10.2022 132 18.2N 108.7W 1006 25 1200UTC 15.10.2022 144 20.3N 109.0W 1009 20

The fast motion should help quite a bit though that doesn't mean there won't still be some mudslides and perhaps some river flooding. Meanwhile, the latest UKMET again has a crossover into the E Pacific as a still intact TC, though weakening, that moves all of the way to within just a couple of hundred miles of the S tip of the Baja at 144: HURRICANE JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 81.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 09.10.2022 0 12.6N 81.8W 992 46 1200UTC 09.10.2022 12 12.7N 84.4W 993 35 0000UTC 10.10.2022 24 13.5N 89.2W 1000 34 1200UTC 10.10.2022 36 12.9N 90.9W 998 40 0000UTC 11.10.2022 48 13.2N 93.8W 1000 34 1200UTC 11.10.2022 60 13.1N 96.6W 1003 34 0000UTC 12.10.2022 72 14.5N 98.0W 1004 36 1200UTC 12.10.2022 84 15.0N 100.3W 1003 36 0000UTC 13.10.2022 96 15.7N 102.7W 1002 38 1200UTC 13.10.2022 108 16.0N 105.7W 1001 36 0000UTC 14.10.2022 120 16.4N 106.8W 1003 33 1200UTC 14.10.2022 132 17.2N 107.6W 1005 27 0000UTC 15.10.2022 144 18.2N 107.9W 1006 22

The 10/8 12Z ICON and UKMET bring Julia almost to the S tip of Baja Cal. at the ends of their runs as an intact TC a week from today! The 10/9 12Z UKMET after reformation in the EPAC actually hits Baja south tip on Saturday (10/15) followed by a move of the moisture into southern AZ/NM on Sunday 10/16.

The 12Z Euro after E Nicaragua landfall barely takes the remnants of Julia into the far E Pacific before then taking much of its remaining vorticity northward up into the Gulf followed by a turn ENE across N FL followed by a turn NE all of the way up the US east coast. Wild path! Edit: The 12Z EPS has ~10% of its members do something kind of in a similar way.

The 12Z UKMET has Julia remain a TC into the E Pacific moving WNW paralleling MX 100-150 miles offshore for several days.

This was upgraded to TD 13 at 11 PM EDT. It is forecasted to landfall in Nicaragua late morning Sunday at 75 knots/85 mph though as usual the potential for flooding from very heavy rainfall is the much bigger concern in CA as it was even with the extremely strong Eta, Iota, and Mitch among others: FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 11.9N 69.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 12.4N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 13.2N 80.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 13.3N 83.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 13.9N 85.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0000Z 15.5N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

12Z UKMET a little stronger than 0Z run (keep in mind that this model is almost always biased weak in early stages) and has Nicaragua landfall even earlier by some 8 hours than 0Z run, by ~noon EDT on Sunday, and which is ~20 hours earlier than the run from 12Z yesterday! TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 66.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 06.10.2022 0 11.8N 66.4W 1008 29 0000UTC 07.10.2022 12 11.7N 68.5W 1007 28 1200UTC 07.10.2022 24 12.7N 71.2W 1007 36 0000UTC 08.10.2022 36 13.3N 73.5W 1004 33 1200UTC 08.10.2022 48 13.6N 77.1W 1003 34 0000UTC 09.10.2022 60 13.6N 80.2W 1000 34 1200UTC 09.10.2022 72 13.3N 82.8W 998 37 0000UTC 10.10.2022 84 13.0N 84.7W 1000 31 1200UTC 10.10.2022 96 13.0N 88.6W 1004 27 0000UTC 11.10.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING

With its Honduras landfall it is HF against not only the other hurricane models, but also against all of the dynamic models since they all have it landfall on Nicaragua. Edit: It appears that both the HF and the HWRF are too far north right now.

So far, there are no indications that this month will be quiet. How active, of course, remains to be seen.

Several models including the 12Z Euro, ICON, and JMA are showing low surface pressures being left behind next week in the SW Caribbean after 91L is gone fwiw.

Along with the 12 runs of the UKMET, ICON, and GFS, the 12Z Euro has its strongest run yet with this with it landfalling in Nicaragua as a strong TS at 120. Also, the 12Z CMC has a H as earlier mentioned.

1. 12Z GFS is the strongest yet as of hour 144. Also, the 12Z ICON has it the strongest yet of any of its runs. The 12Z CMC has another strong run. 2. The 12Z UKMET is the first of its runs with TCG from this, at hour 138 east of Nicaragua moving westward: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 12.8N 80.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 10.10.2022 144 12.8N 81.8W 1006 27

Actually per early October climo, much less November climo, the CONUS is more often than not threatened as per what I posted yesterday about October 1-10 geneses 1851-2021 from 50W westward to the W Caribbean: "So, out of the grand total of 51 looked at, only 9 (18%) buried themselves into CA while 33 (65%) or 3.6 times as many hit the CONUS (majority as a H). The main point is that IF there is going to be TCG from this, we shouldn't assume at this very early stage that it would bury itself in CA regardless of what the model consensus may suggest. The models of course may still be right as 18% is not a tiny percent and I'm not saying to bet on a US hit, but history says don't bet the farm on a CA burial this early especially due to the lack of model reliability that far out!"

With 91L (along with possibly 92L) being an increased threat to form and considering that 5 TCs formed after the peak date of the season climowise (Sept 14th+) resulting in one of the most active 2nd halves of September on record, this is already highly debatable imho. What exactly is meant by a backloaded season?

A clearcut uptick on the 18Z EPS vs the 12Z

Now I'll look at how these models did for the SC landfall for Ian by looking at the 9/26 12Z through 9/30 0Z runs: * = goes offshore FL 12Z 9/26: CMC just E of Columbus, GA GFS Albany, GA Euro Columbus, GA Icon SE GA *UKMET CHS 0Z 9/27: CMC 100 miles NW of Gainesville, FL GFS Gainesville, FL Euro: JAX *ICON: SAV *UKMET: CHS 12Z 9/27: CMC just SW of JAX GFS JAX *Euro just S of SAV *iCON Beaufort *UKMET CHS 0Z 9/28: CMC JAX *GFS HHI *Euro HHI *ICON CHS *UKMET 20 mi NE of CHS 12Z 9/28: *CMC Beaufort *GFS HHI *Euro HHI *ICON CHS *UKMET just SW of MB 0Z 9/29: *CMC CHS *GFS CHS *Euro Beaufort *ICON Beaufort *UKMET G'town 12Z 9/29: *CMC G'town *GFS G'town *Euro CHS *ICON CHS *UKMET 25 mi NE of G'town 0Z 9/30: *CMC MB *GFS G'town *Euro CHS *ICON CHS *UKMET G'town Based on the above, I'm giving these grades for the four days of runs preceding the SC Ian landfall: CMC D GFS C- Euro C- ICON B UKMET A

We're still far enough out for climo/history to be a somewhat useful tool to consider. I looked at all TC geneses Oct 1-10 since 1851. I focused on the CONUS. Before I give the track stats, here's the overall picture via the map for 1851-2015 tracks for geneses Oct 1-10: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png Here are the stats: First, I looked at geneses in the central to western Caribbean. I counted 44. Out of these 44, 31 or 70% later landfalled on the CONUS. Only 7 (16%) buried themselves into CA and only 5 (11%) recurved E of the CONUS. There was one (2%) that dissipated in the GOM. - 21 of these 31 landfalls hit in FL and 6 hit in LA - 19 of these 31 landfalls hit as a H - 5 of these 19 H landfalls hit as a MH - 3 of these 31 landfalls were during the eight 3rd year cold ENSO analog seasons: - Isabel of 1985: hit FL/GA border as a TS - #5 of 1910: hit SW FL as a H - #5 of 1894: hit FL Panhandle as a H Second, I looked at the 7 geneses between the LAs and 50W that moved westward well into the Caribbean: - 2 of those 7 (29%) landfalled on the CONUS: one was Hazel of 1954 as a MH at the SC/NC border and the other was #6 of 1879 that hit the FL Panhandle as a TS - 2 of those 7 (29%) buried themselves into CA - 2 recurved barely east of the CONUS and 1 dissipated in the Caribbean So, out of the grand total of 51 looked at, only 9 (18%) buried themselves into CA while 33 (65%) or 3.6 times as many hit the CONUS (majority as a H). The main point is that IF there is going to be TCG from this, we shouldn't assume at this very early stage that it would bury itself in CA regardless of what the model consensus may suggest. The models of course may still be right as 18% is not a tiny percent and I'm not saying to bet on a US hit, but history says don't bet the farm on a CA burial this early especially due to the lack of model reliability that far out! To look at it in another way: had today's models been available, how many of the 42 TCs that didn't get buried in CA would have shown burial in CA at this early stage?

I had a whopping ~10" of rainfall Sept 1-10 leading to a water table so high that my AC condensation drainage stopped at least twice temporarily. Then I had ~nothing Sept 11-27, which was much needed! Finally, Ian gave me a thankfully modest 0.75" Sept 28-9, which got me to ~10.75" for the full month. So, although a third very wet month in a row, Sept. was very lopsided. So, I've had 4.75" of rainfall associated with TCs so far this season with 4" from the precursor to Colin on July 1st and 0.75" from Ian Sept. 28-9.

Thanks, ice. The 12Z EPS, though its mean is not nearly as active as the 12Z GEFS, did have a slight increase vs the 0Z EPS with several members having hurricanes vs none that I could see on the 0Z. More than likely, the Euro suite is underdone imho on the chances of this ending up as a strong TC by the W Caribbean although the GEFS could easily be overdone in the E Caribbean especially.