GaWx

Buoy 41004, which is at 32.5N, 79.1W, is very near the center. It last reported at 10:40 AM a SLP of 28.96" or 981 mb. Winds had become much lighter, with the center barely south then, at 14 knots from the ESE. Two hours earlier they were at 43 knots, gusting to 58 knots. All of the constantly updated data is here along with a cool recent photo of the high seas: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004</i><br

Buoy 41004, which is at 32.5N, 79.1W, is very near the center. It last reported at 10:40 AM a SLP of 28.96" or 981 mb. Winds had become much lighter, with the center barely south then, at 14 knots from the ESE. Two hours earlier they were at 43 knots, gusting to 58 knots. All of the constantly updated data is here along with a cool recent photo of the high seas: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004</i><br

6Z UKMET landfalls at Myrtle Beach at 5PM EDT. UKMET has been nothing short of stellar since the 0Z 9/25 run and better than any other model since then! Let's see if it can earn an exclamation mark for its performance here with a near Myrtle Beach landfall:

6Z UKMET landfalls at Myrtle Beach at 5PM EDT. UKMET has been nothing short of stellar since the 0Z 9/25 run and better than any other model since then! Let's see if it can earn an exclamation mark for its performance here with a near Myrtle Beach landfall:

Almost no net movement 11PM to 2AM (only ~3 mph) per NHC coordinates wasn't totally unexpected based on the Euro and UKMET as they had very slow movement then. However, they both had it speed up quite a bit from 2AM through 5AM. So, look for an increase in speed to start soon. If it doesn't and the 5AM is near the 2AM position, then we'd know the models are off.

Almost no net movement 11PM to 2AM (only ~3 mph) per NHC coordinates wasn't totally unexpected based on the Euro and UKMET as they had very slow movement then. However, they both had it speed up quite a bit from 2AM through 5AM. So, look for an increase in speed to start soon. If it doesn't and the 5AM is near the 2AM position, then we'd know the models are off.

0Z UKMET is a little SW of the prior two runs with landfall near Georgetown instead of just SW of Myrtle Beach: HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 79.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 30.09.2022 0 29.5N 79.5W 988 58 1200UTC 30.09.2022 12 31.4N 79.2W 984 55 0000UTC 01.10.2022 24 34.5N 79.4W 987 37 1200UTC 01.10.2022 36 35.7N 80.4W 1002 25 0000UTC 02.10.2022 48 CEASED TRACKING

0Z UKMET is a little SW of the prior two runs with landfall near Georgetown instead of just SW of Myrtle Beach: HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 79.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 30.09.2022 0 29.5N 79.5W 988 58 1200UTC 30.09.2022 12 31.4N 79.2W 984 55 0000UTC 01.10.2022 24 34.5N 79.4W 987 37 1200UTC 01.10.2022 36 35.7N 80.4W 1002 25 0000UTC 02.10.2022 48 CEASED TRACKING

The NHC 8 PM location is 29.7N, 79.4W, which is right on the 12Z UKMET forecast for 8 PM and well east of the 12Z Euro forecast for 8 PM, which had it at 29.7N, 79.9W. The NHC 5 PM track didn't have it get to 79.4W for another 6 hours. Thus both the 5 PM NHC track and the 12Z Euro are too far west. Therefore, I'm sticking with the 12Z/18Z UKMET runs for a just SW of Myrtle Beach landfall rather than close to CHS.

The NHC 8 PM location is 29.7N, 79.4W, which is right on the 12Z UKMET forecast for 8 PM and well east of the 12Z Euro forecast for 8 PM, which had it at 29.7N, 79.9W. The NHC 5 PM track didn't have it get to 79.4W for another 6 hours. Thus both the 5 PM NHC track and the 12Z Euro are too far west. Therefore, I'm sticking with the 12Z/18Z UKMET runs for a just SW of Myrtle Beach landfall rather than close to CHS.

18Z UKMET didn't change from the 12Z and is still just S of Myrtle Beach for SC landfall.

18Z UKMET is still just S of Myrtle Beach.

Going back to the known tracks since 1851, the latest on record that a TC formed in the MDR east of 50W and then later hit the CONUS was Sept. 25th (that was in 1893 and hit SC as a MH in mid Oct.) The 2nd latest formed on Sept 21st. We're looking at something possibly forming in the E MDR ~1 week later than Sept 25th. If it does, I'd bet very heavily based on over 150 years of history that it wouldn't threaten the CONUS. But if it waits til after 50W, then that would be a somewhat different story.

The NHC adjusted the SC landfall slightly from Charleston on the 11 AM track to 20 miles NE of Charleston on the 5 PM track. Will it end up landfalling further NE than that? I had said in my prior post that I was favoring the 12Z UKMET's just S of Myrtle Beach over the 1Z Euro's just S of Charleston based on the 2 PM EDT actual of 28.9N, 80.0W, as compared to the 2 PM of the UK/Euro as it then matched the UKMET. But let's now add the 5 PM location to the mix: NHC actual locations: 11 AM 28.7N, 80.4W 2 PM 28.9N, 80.0W 5 PM 29.3N, 79.9W So, realizing that wobbling can cause deception as regards the heading, note the sharp directional change for 2 PM-5 PM vs the prior 3 hours. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it moved ENE. But from 2 PM to 5 PM, it moved NNE. The 12Z UKMET gets it to 79.4W as of 8PM vs the 12Z Euro's 79.9W. IF Ian has really turned NNE for good, it won't make it to 79.4 at 8 PM and the Euro 79.9 may end up closer at 8 PM. If the Euro ends up closer, then I'd probably change my prediction from favoring the 12Z UKMET to favoring the 12Z Euro for the track to SC, which would mean closer to Charleston than Myrtle Beach.

The NHC adjusted the SC landfall slightly from Charleston on the 11 AM track to 20 miles NE of Charleston on the 5 PM track. Will it end up landfalling further NE than that? I had said in my prior post that I was favoring the 12Z UKMET's just S of Myrtle Beach over the 1Z Euro's just S of Charleston based on the 2 PM EDT actual of 28.9N, 80.0W, as compared to the 2 PM of the UK/Euro as it then matched the UKMET. But let's now add the 5 PM location to the mix: NHC actual locations: 11 AM 28.7N, 80.4W 2 PM 28.9N, 80.0W 5 PM 29.3N, 79.9W So, realizing that wobbling can cause deception as regards the heading, note the sharp directional change for 2 PM-5 PM vs the prior 3 hours. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it moved ENE. But from 2 PM to 5 PM, it moved NNE. The 12Z UKMET gets it to 79.4W as of 8PM vs the 12Z Euro's 79.9W. IF Ian has really turned NNE for good, it won't make it to 79.4 at 8 PM and the Euro 79.9 may end up closer at 8 PM. If the Euro ends up closer, then I'd probably change my prediction from favoring the 12Z UKMET to favoring the 12Z Euro for the track to SC, which would mean closer to Charleston than Myrtle Beach.

Longitudinally, it is only ~75 miles from the Euro. And the UKMET has done much better with Ian the last 5 days. I'm favoring the 12Z UKMET track (just S of Myrtle Beach) over the 12Z Euro (just S of CHS) for the 2nd landfall. As of 2PM EDT, whereas the Euro had it at 29.1N, 80.0W, the better performing (for Ian) UKMET had Ian at 28.9N, 80.0W, which is exactly where the NHC had it then. So, advantage goes to UKMET as of then. Looking ahead, both the 11 AM NHC and the 12Z Euro have Ian going no further west than 79.9W while still east of N FL. But the 12Z UKMET gets it further east to 79.4W. That will be a key. Will Ian while still east of N FL get close to the 79.4W of the UKMET or will it lag behind and be closer to the NHC/Euro longitudes of 79.9W?

I'm favoring the 12Z UKMET track (just S of Myrtle Beach) over the 12Z Euro (just S of CHS) for the 2nd landfall. As of 2PM EDT, whereas the Euro had it at 29.1N, 80.0W, the better performing (for Ian) UKMET had Ian at 28.9N, 80.0W, which is exactly where the NHC had it then. So, advantage goes to UKMET as of then. Looking ahead, both the 11 AM NHC and the 12Z Euro have Ian going no further west than 79.9W while still east of N FL. But the 12Z UKMET gets it further east to 79.4W. That will be a key. Will Ian while still east of N FL get close to the 79.4W of the UKMET or will it lag behind and be closer to the NHC/Euro longitudes of 79.9W?

I'm even further northeast. Based on the continued movement of Ian east of the forecast track and the trend of models landfalling further and further NE, I think it will landfall in the Myrtle Beach to Wilmington area.

Based on the continued movement of Ian east of the forecast track and the trend of models landfalling further and further NE, I think it will landfall well northeast of Charleston and probably northeast of Georgetown. I'm currently thinking Myrtle Beach to Wilmington area.

The UKMET, the most accurate model for Ian since the 0Z Sept 25th run, has it again landfalling well NE of Charleston on the 12Z. The 0Z had it landfalling just SW of Georgetown. This run has the center landfalling a good bit further NE than the 0Z, 25 miles NE of Georgetown/just SW of Myrtle Beach: TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 80.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 29.09.2022 0 28.4N 80.6W 989 46 0000UTC 30.09.2022 12 29.7N 79.4W 984 54 1200UTC 30.09.2022 24 31.7N 79.0W 975 63 0000UTC 01.10.2022 36 34.7N 79.2W 987 37 1200UTC 01.10.2022 48 36.1N 79.3W 1002 28 0000UTC 02.10.2022 60 37.4N 78.8W 1008 21 1200UTC 02.10.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING

Now it is finally actually moving NNE.

0Z UKMET: slightly west of 12Z near Georgetown, SC HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N 81.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 29.09.2022 0 27.1N 81.8W 973 49 1200UTC 29.09.2022 12 28.2N 80.7W 989 46 0000UTC 30.09.2022 24 29.6N 79.7W 984 55 1200UTC 30.09.2022 36 31.4N 79.2W 978 55 0000UTC 01.10.2022 48 34.3N 79.5W 987 37 1200UTC 01.10.2022 60 35.7N 80.0W 1002 28 0000UTC 02.10.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING

The NHC does a fantastic job overall. Their forecast verifications speak for themselves. However, I am wondering why they are saying that it has been moving NNE for the last 6 hours when it has been a straight NE move each hour since 4 PM. It has moved from 26.8 N, 82.1 W, then to 27.4 N, 81.5 W at 10 PM.

Agreed. Other than the UKMET, the models are continuing to play catch-up. Ian continues to move on the right side of the consensus and at a faster speed. It wouldn't surprise me if there's no sharp left turn to NW or even NNW. From a climo perspective, that kind of track after crossing FL to the NE is virtually unheard of though that doesn't mean it can't happen, of course. As of now, I'm also thinking closer to Georgetown than HH. It may even end up well north of there for all we know right now.

12Z UKMET: 2nd landfall much further north at Myrtle Beach instead of Charleston and near a cat 2 hurricane: HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 82.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 28.09.2022 0 26.0N 82.7W 949 92 0000UTC 29.09.2022 12 27.4N 81.4W 978 47 1200UTC 29.09.2022 24 28.5N 80.6W 987 51 0000UTC 30.09.2022 36 29.7N 79.5W 983 59 1200UTC 30.09.2022 48 31.5N 79.0W 976 62 0000UTC 01.10.2022 60 34.6N 79.0W 985 40 1200UTC 01.10.2022 72 36.3N 79.5W 1002 28 0000UTC 02.10.2022 84 37.5N 79.0W 1007 27 1200UTC 02.10.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING