GaWx

The 0Z CMC with its CCar TCG is a much more believable scenario vs the GFS SECar TCG. I don't see the 0Z GFS on Tidbits. Where did you see it?

Maybe so/we'll see or maybe it has also been sniffing something. Can anyone recall the last time the GFS with some support from the ICON sniffed out something in the Caribbean like this? We can follow the wave whose vorticity the GFS is focusing on as it is centered near 9-10 N, 51W.

I think that the GFS has been smoking the crack pipe for days, but now we can add Happy Hour's effects to the mix.

Regarding the now cherry nearing Bermuda, aka Invest 94L, the Euro/UKMET/GFS takes the LLC to the Cape Cod to Maine corridor Wednesday. Here's the relevant part of the TWO that indicates it is now likely to be designated a TD shortly: Central Subtropical Atlantic: Satellite and Bermuda radar images indicate that the low pressure system located about 100 miles east-southeast of Bermuda now has a well-defined center and is producing a relatively concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. If the thunderstorm activity persists near the center, the disturbance will likely become a tropical depression later today or tonight while it moves west-northwestward and passes near Bermuda. After that time, the system is expected to turn northward and move toward cooler waters and into a region of unfavorable upper-level winds, which should limit additional development. Regardless of development, periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over Bermuda through tonight. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

I'm wary of the GFS overdevelopment bias this season in the southern Caribbean off of South America and it could be coming into play here. The 12Z ICON doesn't have actual TCG until the C Caribbean and it isn't more than a TS as of hour 180. That's the best support the GFS has. And sometimes the ICON has overdone things this season. The 12Z CMC has only a very weak low and no TCG. The 12Z UK, Euro, and JMA have very little til a weak low in the SW Car. That's the part of the Car that I have more interest in for TCG (next week). These model wars make these forecasting threads extra fun! The GFS is developing this at least partially from vorticity located now per the model near 9N, 50W. I wonder how it is looking there right now.

Having already realized that FL as well as other areas in the W basin may very well still be at risk again before the end of the season based especially on recent La Niña climo, here's my take on this potential system fwiw: After having the two weakest runs since the 6Z 10/21 run at 12Z and 18Z yesterday and thus looking to me like it was quite possibly getting close to giving up on a H in the E Car, these last 3 (0Z, 6Z, 12Z) have been the strongest in the E Car! I still think the exclusive to GFS idea of a H in the E Car from this is out to lunch based on a combo of bias, relative lack of model support, and climo and that a TCG from this, if any, would thus wait til the C or W Caribbean, but we'll see. The GFS has done this kind of thing in the past where it would stubbornly hold onto a H run after run on its own only to later abandon it, sometimes abruptly. It is almost as if the GFS is a trolling model at times lol.

After having had the two weakest runs (yesterday's 12Z and 18Z) since the string of GFS ECar Hs started with the 6Z 10/21 run, the last two runs (0Z/6Z) have gone the opposite way to the strongest through hour 198 (12Z on 11/1)! I still think the GFS' idea of a H in the ECar is wrong and that any TCG, if there is any, would likely wait til the C or WCar. This is quite the interesting situation from a forecasting perspective with such major differences persisting among the main models! I still think the odds of one more significant land impacting TC somewhere in the W basin this season are pretty high based on recent decades of La Niña season history, especially since 2005.

And now the 0Z GFS at hour 198 has the strongest H it has had at that forecast timeframe with 970 mb S of Hispaniola.

I still think the GFS is out to lunch with its climo unfavored E Caribbean geneses. The two recent runs are the weakest through late next week in the E Car, which imho is hinting to us that that is the case and that it will quite possibly stop showing E Car geneses within a few runs. OTOH, the 18Z GEFS is about as active with geneses in early November in the W Car as has been the case with any recent run. This is similar to the increased activity there on the two most recent EPS runs though the GEFS is quite a bit more active. Imho, it is the C or W Caribbean where we should be wary about a possible TCG next week rather than the E Car that the GFS has been insisting on.

The 12Z Euro as well as the 12Z EPS, similarly to the 0Z, are hinting at the possibility of TCG in the C or W Caribbean ~10/31-11/2 with ~25% of EPS members somewhat active fwiw. The Euro has light shear in the SW Caribbean then along with an upper high forming to the N in addition to a strengthening surface high to the NE increasing low level convergence. These all are suggestive of more favorable conditions for TCG in the W Caribbean in ~8-10 days. Climo: Oct 21-31: Nov 1-10:

The 12Z GFS is through hour 252 (with just a 1002 mb low) the weakest it has been in the Caribbean with this system since way back to the 0Z 10/21 run. It had had in nearly all of its runs since then (nine runs) hurricanes at that forecast time (as strong as 938 mb!). Even though I've been harping on the idea of a good chance for one more TC this season with significant land impacts based on the last nine La Niña seasons and 2/3 of La Niña seasons since 1964 having had one form either in late Oct or Nov, this GFS E Caribbean TCG has continued to look ghosty to me based on a general lack of support by other models in the E Caribbean, the GFS seeming to involve something coming off of SA in this genesis (which the GFS suite has been wrong on a good number of times this season), and the rarity of TCG in the E Caribbean vs C or W Caribbean. I'm still on the alert for one more potentially impactful system this season but don't think this E Caribbean GFS TC is the one as it appears bogus to me. OTOH, a decent % of 0Z EPS members is hinting at TCG in the much more favored (per climo) W Caribbean around 10/31 to very early Nov. That's a much more believable possibility to me than this GFS TC. Edit: Despite the weaker start, the 12Z GFS run later goes ape shoot once again with this with a 952 mb H in the NE Caribbean on Nov 5th with it reaching H strength on 11/4. I'm not believing it. The prior run had a H by 11/1, yesterday's 18Z had it by 11/2, and yesterday's 12Z had it by 10/31.

Folks, Keep in mind that this map is showing probabilities. The SE US is in the 33-50% chance range for above normal (based on 30 year average) ("A") temperatures. That means that none of the SE actually has a likelihood of A. Rather, the SE has a higher chance for A than for either N or B. For example, let's say you're on the 40% chance for A line (as is the case for RDU, CLT, CAE, AGS, and MCN). That means your area has a 40% chance for A, 33% chance for N, and 27% chance for B. I got that info from here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal_info.php In my 1st post ITT (two months ago), I listed eight 3rd year cold ENSO analog winters using Eric Webb's tables. Here's how those turned out at ATL: - 1874-5: N (based on AGS, MGM, & SAV being N since ATL N/A) - 1894-5: B - 1910-1: N - 1917-8: B - 1956-7: A - 1975-6: N - 1985-6: N - 2000-1: B Tally for ATL for eight analogs: 3 B, 4 N, and 1 A. So, fwiw based on the 3rd year cold ENSO analogs, the SE US has a very good shot at not having a mild winter. Instead, the higher likelihood is for just one of the three months to be mild. For these eight winters at ATL, here are the # of mild months: - two winters had two - four winters had one - two winters had none Here are the # of cold months: - one winter had two - five winters had one - two winters had none Based on all of this, the best bet is probably for one mild month, one near normal month, and one cold month. The last three of these eight winters were that way. That one cold month would have a good chance to be pretty memorable as were Feb of 1895, Dec of 1910, Dec of 1917, Jan of 1918, and Dec of 2000.

It actually has been on most models for at least several days of runs. Most runs have this low or its remnant moisture either going into the NE US or SE Canada mid next week or else recurving sharply and staying offshore those areas. Edit: The 18Z GFS takes the surface low across Cape Cod and then into Maine.

The last two GFS runs have similar shenanigans. They're giving me ghost vibes because the GFS loves its ghosts, especially late in its runs. The latest example is what apparently won't occur next week. Many GFS/GEFS runs had had a Caribbean TS+ next week with no other model support and now that idea has been dropped. So, it appears that the next real Caribbean TC would be in November, if any at all. As mentioned earlier, November has had more than its share of impactful activity during recent La Niña seasons. So, I'm not counting out that possibility as of now.

Upper 30s (38-39) for all three of 10/19-21 at KSAV with new record low and coldest so early in the season since 2001 on 10/19. KSVN similar except 40 on 10/19. The three sub 40 lows this month at KSAV compares to an average of only 1/2 a day that cold in the full month of October since records started in 1874. The record number of sub 40 lows in October is five with more than three occurring only four times, three times during the cold 1960s and the other time in 2001. Having three sub 40 lows by October 21st is a new record that beat the old record of two sub 40 lows by October 21st set only once (in 1954). Also, October 21st beats the old record earliest for the third sub 40 low by six days (old record of October 27th for the 3rd sub 40 low set both in 1962 and 1965). So, it wasn't just the intensity of this early cold event that was noteworthy for the deep SE US. It was also the duration.

It was 38 at KSAV, the coldest this early in the season since 2001 as well as a new record low for the date. It was 40 at KSVN.

This was by a good margin for that long of a period the smallest % of Octobers without a freeze since records there started. Also, the period 2016-21 had no freeze. This six year no freeze October streak is the longest there on record as it beat the old record of four set twice. Actually, 2016-21 October coldest is 35. The prior longest 35+ streak for October coldest was only three. In addition, all three of 2019-21 had their Oct coldest of 40+. Prior to 2019, there were a mere three Octobers back to 1903 with a coldest of 40+: 2004, 1949, and 1919! This is to me the most telling record. So, to those with more knowledge about KGSO, what is the most likely main reason for this highly anomalous warm streak in October? Is it GW, is it a change of the station, itself, or is it increased heat island effect? After looking at KRDU and KFAY, I think it is some combination as opposed to just from GW. Edit: Prior to 1990, only 33 of 87 (38%) Octobers had no freeze. Since 1990, 21 of 32 (66%) had no freeze!

Now 20/80. Mid October genesis climo still active with a good % that form just off MX later recurving back NE into MX: It finally starts to get less active late in the month though with still a decent level of activity, again including a pretty good % that recurve into MX: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Oct 17 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of Southern Mexico: A broad trough of low pressure has formed a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico and is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin

I'm also watching this as I posted about this elsewhere. It clearly isn't purely tropical, but I wonder if this could be a subtropical storm as it formed earlier near the mid 80s F Gulf Stream before moving NW and has highest winds near 40 knots. Keep in mind that earlier Euro runs going all of the way back 72 hours to the 12Z 10/13 run have been showing something similar forming off of the SE US coast toward this upcoming weekend. This idea has some support from the 12Z ICON and JMA as well as from ~20% of the 12Z EPS members as you hinted at. Also, one can see that the 18Z ICON 120 has it as that map is similar to the 12Z 126. Edit: I forgot to mention that the 12Z UKMET also has something form early this upcoming weekend in the Bahamas that isn't classified as tropical and thus is probably ST.

I wonder if the 12Z Euro storm just off the SE US for the upcoming weekend could be a subtropical storm as it formed earlier near the mid 80s F Gulf Stream before moving NW and has highest winds near 40 knots. Keep in mind that earlier Euro runs going all of the way back 72 hours to the 12Z 10/13 run have been showing something similar forming off of the SE US coast toward this upcoming weekend. This idea has some support from the 12Z ICON and JMA as well as from ~20% of the 12Z EPS members. Edit: I forgot to mention that the 12Z UKMET also has something form early this upcoming weekend in the Bahamas that isn't classified as tropical and thus is probably ST. Also, the 18Z ICON 120 is similar to the 12Z 126 and thus implies it has it, too.

Forecasts are for as cold as upper 30s lows in Statesboro, GA, and low 40s at KSAV 10/19-20. If KSAV gets low 40s, that would be the coldest so early in the season since 2009!

We're having near perfect weather for outdoor activities here this afternoon with temps in the 70s, dewpoints in the 40s, and sunshine.

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 ...KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 93.7W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

For the period September 23rd through October 12th, it has been the coolest at KSAV since way back in 2001! It's been great! Edit: I received 0.45" of rainfall last night. That along with the 0.75" from Ian are the only rainfall amounts I've received going back to Sept 11th other than possibly a few hundredths a couple of days. So, I'll call it only ~1.25" since Sept 11th. However, this is fine with me since my water table was sky high on Sept 10th thanks to a whopping 10" Sept 1-10, 13.25" in August, and 11.98" in July.

From CSU's two week update issued today: "As the enhanced convection shifts slightly to the east over the two weeks, shear conditions may become more favorable for Caribbean tropical cyclone development late this month." During the 13 oncoming or current La Niña seasons since 1995, there have been these storms form in the Caribbean from late Oct through Nov that ended up having significant impact on land areas: 2020: Zeta, Eta, and Iota 2017: Philippe 2016: Otto 2011: Rina 2009: Ida 2008: Paloma 2007: Noel 2005: Beta 1999: Lenny 1998: Mitch These involved 10 of the 13 or over 75% (edited to add Philippe of 2017 and Rina of 2011) of the La Niña seasons since 1995. Edit (somewhat related to the above): check this out regarding November MHs to show how much the warmer globe has influenced the late season: - MH in November 1999-2021: 6 (Iota, Eta, Otto, Paloma, Michelle, Lenny) or an average of one for every 4 seasons - MH in November 1950-1998: 1 (Kate) or only one out of 39 seasons Further edit: - MH in November 1900-1949: 3 (1934, 1932, and 1912) or an average of one every 17 seasons - MH in November 1851-1899: 0 So, a total of 10 MH in November since 1851, with six of those 10 just since 1999.