GaWx

18 UKMET is not at all giving up on the SE outlier scenario as it is 30 miles NE of the 12Z run moving toward Punta Gorda area once again (75 miles s of Tampa).

18Z GFS 12 a little SE of 12Z at 18. Let's see how this run goes from here.

18Z ICON very similar to 12Z UKMET in entire trek through FL and is most SE ICON track since the similar 18Z run of 48 hours ago.

12Z EPS tracks: mean near operational just offshore Tampa

12Z EPS mean not surprisingly east of 6Z and similar to 0Z with a mean track near Tampa.

At hour 120 of 12Z, Euro (Columbus, GA) is 300 miles west of the UKMET (CHS)!

At hour 120 of 12Z, Euro (Columbus, GA) is 300 miles west of the UKMET (CHS)!

12Z Euro 72 has a slightly stronger NE US H5 trough than 6Z and 00Z runs. Its Ian location is between those 2 runs at 72.

12Z Euro 72 is between the 0Z and 6Z runs for same timeframe

West of 0Z but NE of 6Z

Actually, the 12Z Euro 48 is 50 miles NE of 6Z Euro run and has a slightly stronger H5 NE US trough than 6Z

12Z JMA landfalls at Sarasota, barely south of Tampa.

Agreed regarding winds though the potential for heavy rainfall would be there. Also, the most significant thing about this track imho is how it has maintained its strong SE outlier position and is actually a hair SE of the 0Z into FL. It is way SE of the 6Z Euro. What's interesting is that the UKMET is often on the left side of guidance, the opposite of this. For example, it did about the best with Irma because it was to the left of most, if not all, others.

This has some of the 12Z tracks as well as the 6Z hurricane model and GFS tracks. Note that the 12Z UKMET hits Charleston, SC, (dark blue track) which is an extreme SE outlier and is also SE of its 0Z track:

12Z UKMET has a later landfall near Charleston, SC as per the dark blue line in this:

12Z UKMET landfall into Port Charlotte area, 75 miles south of Tampa. I think this is barely south of the 0Z run and is a major south outlier.

12Z UKMET pretty close to 0Z track and continues to have a clearcut SE outlier track coming ashore well south of Tampa. Also, note that this is actually about the strongest it has had Ian (984 mb) even though it still is relatively weak vs other models. This track is also SE of the 0Z track late: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.09.2022 HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 82.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 26.09.2022 0 18.6N 82.4W 990 45 0000UTC 27.09.2022 12 20.8N 83.5W 986 48 1200UTC 27.09.2022 24 22.5N 84.0W 989 44 0000UTC 28.09.2022 36 24.0N 83.9W 986 47 1200UTC 28.09.2022 48 25.6N 83.3W 984 57 0000UTC 29.09.2022 60 26.6N 82.4W 986 52 1200UTC 29.09.2022 72 27.3N 81.7W 991 46 0000UTC 30.09.2022 84 28.3N 80.8W 992 47 1200UTC 30.09.2022 96 29.2N 80.6W 992 45 0000UTC 01.10.2022 108 30.6N 80.0W 988 50 1200UTC 01.10.2022 120 33.1N 79.9W 988 41 0000UTC 02.10.2022 132 34.9N 79.9W 997 28 1200UTC 02.10.2022 144 36.4N 78.9W 1002 29

0Z Euro 72 gets to just offshore Tampa and then barely moves north through 96 staying just offshore, a true nightmare scenario. Then it accelerates north to GA/FL border at 120.

0Z UKMET shifts back SE to Port Charlotte area of FL (ignore the lowball strengths as they've been low on every run. I watch mainly for the track changes). So, UKMET is a pretty decent right outlier, something it isn't accustomed to as more often it is on the left: TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 80.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 26.09.2022 0 17.0N 80.7W 1000 34 1200UTC 26.09.2022 12 18.9N 82.1W 997 38 0000UTC 27.09.2022 24 20.8N 83.4W 994 39 1200UTC 27.09.2022 36 22.8N 84.0W 994 45 0000UTC 28.09.2022 48 24.2N 83.6W 992 46 1200UTC 28.09.2022 60 25.8N 83.2W 989 54 0000UTC 29.09.2022 72 26.8N 82.5W 990 51 1200UTC 29.09.2022 84 27.2N 82.1W 993 49 0000UTC 30.09.2022 96 28.3N 81.8W 993 47 1200UTC 30.09.2022 108 29.5N 81.3W 995 41 0000UTC 01.10.2022 120 29.8N 81.8W 996 34 1200UTC 01.10.2022 132 31.9N 80.8W 998 32 0000UTC 02.10.2022 144 34.8N 79.8W 999 29

- Alma of 1966 caused 93 mph gusts and significant surge in the area though eye passed offshore - 1946 was last direct hit off Gulf

The 18Z UKMET at 60 is 40 miles ESE of the 12Z at 66.

Since 1921, Tampa has been hit by hurricanes from the Gulf in 1966, 1950, 1946, and 1935: 1. Tampa's last direct hit off the Gulf by a hurricane was way back in 1946. I don't know what the surge was at Tampa: 2. Alma of 1966, which paralleled the FL w coast, produced wind gusts to 93 mph in the Tampa area. New Port Richey to the north had a storm tide of 10 feet. I don't know what Tampa had: 3. Easy of 1950 produced a surge of 6.5 feet at Tampa Bay, the highest then since 1921 per Wikipedia. It just missed a direct hit on Tampa as it looped, but it still produced severe damage there: 4. The 1935 hurricane passed just enough offshore Tampa to cause 75 mph winds and a storm surge of 5.3 feet:

40-50 mile ENE shift 18Z GFS hour 48 vs 12Z GFS 54 At hour 66 of 18Z GFS, shift of 100 miles ENE vs 0Z 84

Even though the rain isn't finished at the end of the run, one can see that the drier air is up through 120 hours holding back the extremely heavy amounts on the 18Z ICON to just offshore GA/far S SC vs the 12Z, which though a weaker storm had much heavier rainfall due to a further west track barely inland that allowed for less influence from the Canadian air. Hoping the center would stay just offshore to reduce the chance for extreme flooding in SE GA/far S SC.

A strong convective burst has developed near and just west of the center. This is the strongest convection I can recall anytime recently near the center. With the increased organization today quite evident on the visible loop, we'll see whether or not this leads to significant strengthening by DMAX late tonight.