GaWx

Here south of the wedge with good sunshine, KSAV had a much warmer day today with a 79 high after only 60 yesterday. Dewpoints have been in the 60s. It looks to not be nearly this warm again for at least the next 7 days with highs mainly 55-65 and lows ~45 tomorrow night followed by mainly 35-40 the subsequent 5 nights. This will be an early taste of winter as these temperatures are near average for mid January.

Nicole ended up giving me in combination with the big 1040 mb NE US high a couple of days of quite gusty winds along with ~1.5" of rainfall on Thursday (11/10). Nicole gave Ft. Pulaski a 2.91 foot storm surge and moderate coastal flooding at Tybee and on Highway 80 that peaked ~an hour after the 8.2' 8:55 AM astronomical high tide of Thursday morning, resulting in a 10.41' high point. This is the third tropical system to give me rain this season along with the precursor to Colin (4") and Ian (0.75"). The Nicole rains were easily the heaviest since early September!

1935 was extreme track wise as this was the so called "Yankee Hurricane" that moved SW from off NC to FL and hit as a cat 2:

Way up here, I had two two hour+ long outages today. I've been getting bands of heavy showers this evening accompanied by very gusty winds as higher dewpoint air has displaced the wedged in air. There's been almost no thunder. We're under a tornado watch til 1AM. Charleston surge was up from 2 feet during yesterday morning's high tide to 2.6 at this morning's high tide. The projected peak surge was 2-4 feet. So, it verified in the lower part of the range though there still was a good amount of surge flooding. Ft. Pulaski's high tide this morning included a surge of 2.9 feet that lead to Highway 80 and Tybee having a notable amount of flooding. That should end up the highest tide for this storm. I'm near 1.5" for this storm, the third this season to give me rain/wind.

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 400 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 ...CENTER OF NICOLE STRADDLING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... ...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR STORM SURGE, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 83.2W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

By looking at the county by county power outage map, one can get a good idea of where the highest winds were. In FL going up the coast, significant numbers of outages don't start til Indian River county, where Nicole made landfall. The next county up, Brevard, has by far the highest number and percentage in the state with 25% out (as mentioned above). Significant outages go as far north as St. John's (8%) in NE FL. Even way up here in SAV, my power was out for a couple of hours and just came back on. In stark contrast, SE FL (which was on the weak side of the eye) has only a very low % out (under 2% St. Lucie county southward). Although well inland, Orange county (Orlando) has 6% out and Marion county has 9% out. In NW FL, Madison county at 19% has the second highest percentage out! Does anyone know why? Overall, for a minimal hurricane, Nicole has been pretty impactful on the strong side of the eye. I'm pretty sure that most minimal hurricanes haven't had this much impact overall. This was aided by a strong gradient due to the big high that was to the north.

000 WTNT62 KNHC 092258 CCA TCUAT2 Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 600 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022 Corrected header ...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MAKING LANDFALL ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... Recent observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Nicole has strengthened in to a hurricane. The maximum winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 600 PM EST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 78.4W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF FREEPORT ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Roberts

As long as it is near the E tip of Grand Bahama Island at the 4PM advisory, it wouldn't be tracking south of any of the models. It is only then when it would need to start turning WNW to not be tracking south of the models.

12Z UKMET is straight westerly til 4PM EST, when it has Nicole at the eastern end of Grand Bahama Island. Then it turns WNW from then through midnight. After that it turns NW til the 4AM landfall at Melbourne.

Summary of 12Z runs at FL landfall south to north for documentation purposes: GFS, HWRF: Stuart ICON, CMC: Vero Beach HAFS: Sebastian Euro: just south of Melbourne UKMET, HMON, NAM: Melbourne Stuart to Melbourne is 65 miles straight line

1. 12Z Euro is way north to just south of Melbourne! Also, landfall isn't til 4AM. 2. Similar to the 12Z Euro, 12Z UKMET went 30 miles north to Melbourne! Why so far north? Because it moves NW from 11PM to a 3AM landfall, which is a later landfall than the midnight to 1AM landfalls of recent runs. Last 4 runs UKMET: 18Z Vero 0Z Ft. Pierce 6Z Vero 12Z Melbourne 12Z HMON is also way up near Melbourne, similar to its three prior runs back to yesterday's 18Z.

0Z UKMET continued the south trend on landfall and does so at Ft. Pierce vs Vero Beach on the 18Z: TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.3N 74.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 09.11.2022 0 27.3N 74.6W 991 46 1200UTC 09.11.2022 12 26.9N 76.4W 990 45 0000UTC 10.11.2022 24 26.9N 79.2W 987 47 1200UTC 10.11.2022 36 28.5N 82.0W 989 39 0000UTC 11.11.2022 48 30.1N 84.6W 992 33 1200UTC 11.11.2022 60 32.8N 84.6W 998 25 0000UTC 12.11.2022 72 39.5N 81.2W 994 20 1200UTC 12.11.2022 84 45.7N 73.4W 985 33 0000UTC 13.11.2022 96 48.6N 61.0W 987 44 1200UTC 13.11.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING

12Z GFS and ICON are both between WPB and Stuart. 12Z CMC is near Ft. Pierce. 12Z UKMET is 25 miles south of 6Z run, which was just south of Cape Canaveral. This run is only 15 miles north of Vero Beach vs the 0Z, which was at Cape Canaveral. 12Z UKMET: TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.5N 72.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.11.2022 0 27.5N 72.2W 997 36 0000UTC 09.11.2022 12 27.2N 74.5W 996 43 1200UTC 09.11.2022 24 26.8N 76.4W 994 44 0000UTC 10.11.2022 36 26.8N 78.9W 993 44 1200UTC 10.11.2022 48 28.5N 82.0W 992 40 0000UTC 11.11.2022 60 30.0N 84.6W 992 34 1200UTC 11.11.2022 72 32.3N 84.7W 999 26 0000UTC 12.11.2022 84 38.5N 80.9W 997 22 1200UTC 12.11.2022 96 46.4N 73.4W 989 32 0000UTC 13.11.2022 108 47.7N 62.6W 991 42 1200UTC 13.11.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1000 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 72.7W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Boca Raton to the Flagler/Volusia County Line. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Altamaha Sound to the Savannah River. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Altamaha Sound Georgia to the Savannah River and from Anclote River Florida to Suwannee River Florida. ------------------------------- Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1000 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022 Deep convection has developed and persisted near the center of Nicole this morning and while there are still some characteristics of a subtropical cyclone, the smaller radius of maximum winds and improving inner-core convection suggest it has made the transition to a tropical cyclone. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft has reported that the pressure has fallen to around 992 mb, and has found 700-mb flight-level winds of 54 kt and believable SFMR winds of 40-42 kt. Based on those data, the initial intensity was raised to 45 kt at 1200 UTC, and is kept there for this advisory. The anticipated westward turn appears to have occurred, and the initial motion estimate is 280/8 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge over the southeastern United States is expected to steer the storm westward to west-southwestward during the next 24 to 36 hours. This motion will bring the center of Nicole near the northwest Bahamas on Wednesday. After that time, the ridge is forecast to shift eastward allowing Nicole to turn west-northwestward to northwestward, as it approaches the east coast of Florida. By 72 hours, Nicole is forecast to recurve over the southeastern United States ahead of a mid-latitude trough. Although there is good agreement on this overall scenario, there is some increased spread in the track guidance on exactly when Nicole makes the west-northwestward turn near the east coast of Florida. The typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models are along the southern side of the guidance envelope, while the regional hurricane models (HWRF and HMON) are on the northern side. Since the storm is likely near the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields. The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is prudent not to make any significant changes. Nicole will be traversing relatively warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius and upper-level conditions that are expected to allow for steady strengthening during the approach to the northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida. The NHC forecast calls for Nicole to become a hurricane when it is near the northwest Bahamas and remain a hurricane when it reaches Florida. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the various intensity consensus aids. Weakening is expected after Nicole moves inland over Florida and while it accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United States. Although the system could still produce tropical-storm-force winds over the adjacent offshore waters. Nicole should be extratropical by late Friday, and most of the global models show the circulation dissipating between days 4 and 5. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to advice given by local officials. 4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States. 5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be likely with possible river rises on the St. Johns River. Flash, urban and small stream flooding will be possible in Southeast Georgia and portions of South Carolina Thursday into Thursday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 27.8N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 27.3N 74.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 26.8N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 27.0N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 28.1N 80.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 11/0000Z 30.0N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/1200Z 32.7N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/1200Z 41.7N 73.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

0Z UKMET: This is even more of a northern outlier with landfall Cape Canaveral vs slightly south of CC on 12Z run. 0Z is about 20 miles north of 12Z landfall and is slightly stronger. This track is 30+ miles further north than all 31 0Z GEFS members! This initialized at 26.9N, 70.7W. The NHC actual position then was 26.7N, 70.8W. So, it initialized ~15 miles NNE of actual, which is not too far off. TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N 70.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 08.11.2022 0 26.9N 70.7W 1001 36 1200UTC 08.11.2022 12 27.7N 72.2W 1000 38 0000UTC 09.11.2022 24 27.0N 74.3W 998 42 1200UTC 09.11.2022 36 26.9N 76.1W 997 43 0000UTC 10.11.2022 48 27.3N 78.3W 995 47 1200UTC 10.11.2022 60 28.8N 81.3W 993 42 0000UTC 11.11.2022 72 29.9N 83.4W 995 32 1200UTC 11.11.2022 84 32.3N 83.7W 1000 29 0000UTC 12.11.2022 96 37.6N 79.7W 996 33 1200UTC 12.11.2022 108 43.8N 72.7W 984 40 0000UTC 13.11.2022 120 47.8N 61.5W 979 52 1200UTC 13.11.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING

Thanks for posting this. Looking forward to the cold shot! It does appear that the La Nina favored SE ridge may hold back subsequent cold shots at least to some extent and thus lead to near normal in the longer range. But that would affect us deep SE folks more than you NC folks, which is common with La Nina. Looking further ahead to December, it is a crap shoot but I'll be looking for one solidly cold month this winter based on the eight third year cold ENSO analogs. Wil it be in December? Stay tuned!

The recon had it at 26.5N, 70.5W a little before 2 PM EST. The 10AM NHC forecast for 7 PM is for 27.0N, 70.5W. So, Nicole is already as far west as and 35 miles south of the NHC position for 5 hours later! Does anyone feel confident about the implications on future track adjustments? Further south? Or something different?

I think the 12Z UKMET track is probably too far north because it initialized at 26.3 N, 69.1 W. The NHC actual position for then was 25.9 N, 69.1 W. This means Nicole was initialized by the 12Z UKMET ~30 miles too far north.

12Z UKMET: landfall near/just south of Cape Canaveral, which is similar to its prior run and 100+ miles north of 6Z Euro, 12Z GFS, and 12Z JMA. It is similar to the 12Z CMC and just north of the 12Z ICON. So, we have an interesting battle between Euro/GFS/JMA and UKMET/ICON/CMC. Euro 12Z will be out soon. 12Z UKMET: TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.3N 69.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 07.11.2022 0 26.3N 69.1W 1004 37 0000UTC 08.11.2022 12 26.9N 70.8W 1002 33 1200UTC 08.11.2022 24 27.6N 72.0W 1001 36 0000UTC 09.11.2022 36 27.4N 74.6W 1000 45 1200UTC 09.11.2022 48 27.0N 76.2W 998 42 0000UTC 10.11.2022 60 27.0N 78.5W 997 45 1200UTC 10.11.2022 72 28.4N 81.1W 996 38 0000UTC 11.11.2022 84 29.2N 83.2W 997 31 1200UTC 11.11.2022 96 30.8N 83.3W 1001 29 0000UTC 12.11.2022 108 34.8N 80.3W 1000 33 1200UTC 12.11.2022 120 40.2N 73.5W 992 46 0000UTC 13.11.2022 132 48.7N 64.6W 983 41 1200UTC 13.11.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING

7PM TWO: Southwestern Atlantic: An area of low pressure located more than 300 miles north of Puerto Rico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move generally northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic where environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form in the next day or so. The system is then forecast to turn westward or west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic by the middle part of this week where additional development is possible. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas beginning in the early to middle part of this week. Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by early Monday. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and in products from your local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3722318-desantis-warns-floridians-to-prepare-for-tropical-disturbance-invest-98l/ This is the first article I've seen regarding FL preps. It has interesting wording as it says, "Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) on Sunday urged residents to prepare for a potential tropical depression that could hit the state’s east coast later this week." Prepare for a potential "TD"? Really? That's like telling Chicago to prepare for 1" of snow. Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS landfalls between Stuart and WPB as a cat 2 H Thursday morning.

Keep in mind that shear and 200 mb winds have been pretty high to this point. They'll be dropping per model consensus to unusually low levels for November over the next two days on the projected track while traversing 82 F SSTs. That's when models have it get better organized.

Way too early to tell. If this were to come into the east coast as a cat 2, it could. I think a cat 2 or even cat 3 at the extreme is a realistic possibility coming into the east coast of FL considering the strong gradient due to the very strong NE high as well as based on the history of WSW/westward moving hurricanes off the SE coast below a strong ridge and considering very warm (above normal) SSTs in the SW Atlantic along with the possibility of very low shear for Nov. If there is a GFS track, that could get your area a hurricane warning for potential cat 1 winds assuming enough speed of movement across FL.

The 12Z Euro takes Invest 98L all of the way up the east coast first as a strong TC in FL followed by a transitioning nor'easter up to the NE US.

12Z Euro landfalls at 96 near Stuart at 998 mb. Almost identical to 12Z UKMET on timing and location. I'd bet heavily on it actually landfalling stronger than 998 mb. Edit: Then the 12Z Euro recurves much more sharply than recent runs and ends up in NE FL at 120 followed by a strengthening to 992 mb just off Delmarva at 144 as a big nor'easter. So, this storm looks to be a major wx maker from FL through the NE US.