GaWx

Bust! But good news for those impacted.

I've been guessing an active but nowhere near hyperactive ACE of 120 (most likely range ~110-135) for the full 2022 since late July. Despite it still being at only 2.8 as of 3 weeks later, I'm staying with active (120) for now based on recent days of modeling. Edit: I last guessed 3 NS this month and 6 NS next month. I'm not changing those either. Highest threat area of CONUS remains the Gulf coast of FL as per 8 ENSO analogs though that's not the only threat area.

Based on the current and recent runs of models, it appears there will most likely be two MDR areas to focus on: 1. What's now in the E Atlantic, which the models have been suggesting for many days is now in the process of combining two packets of energy into one. This one may be moisture starved and thus has been shown to do little until getting pretty far west, at which time 5-6 GFS runs as well as a good number of GEFS members from many runs have shown it to later strengthen into a H and threaten the Caribbean, Bahamas, FL, and the Gulf. It appears to me that this one is the higher threat to the lower SE US/Gulf based on projected steering. 2. What's still in W Africa, which looks to develop further east and thus could ultimately get stronger and larger. This second area looks to me to possibly also threaten the US. However, if so, my educated guess is that that would be upper SC to NE vs FL/Gulf for the first one. Things will change but that's how it looks to me as of now.

The 0Z slams SE FL with a cat 2 H early on 9/2 from the same E Atlantic wave:

A pair of heavy thunderstorms 5:45-7 PM have dropped over 2" here with lots of street flooding. That brings me to over 8" mtd, which is double the normal for 8/1-19 and over 27" met. summer to date! Edit: total was 2" bringing me to 8.04" mtd and ~27" met summer so far

Today's 12Z Euro is only the 2nd Euro op run developing this wave at all. The only other run that did anything with it was the 8/12 12Z run, which ended with this map: So, it took one week of runs for the Euro to develop this AEW at all again!

The 12Z GEFS is the most threatening run to the CONUS from the current E Atlantic AEW since the 0Z 8/18 run. The 6Z 8/18 run had a number of threats but that was mainly from what I consider bogus stuff coming off of the area near Suriname in S America.

The 12Z GFS is back to having a hurricane in the W Atlantic (now the 5th run over the last 5 days or so) with the AEW now in the E Atlantic: As I said, this makes 5 GFS runs with a W Atlantic H from the AEW now in the E Atlantic. These are the runs: 8/15 0Z, 8/16 6Z, 8/17 0Z, 8/17 6Z, and 8/19 12Z.

Meanwhile, the 12Z UKMET is the first with a TC on it in many days and the first in the MDR since even further back/probably weeks. This is NOT the same AEW just discussed above (no UKMET run has developed that one) as regards the GFS but rather is a later one not coming off Africa for a few more days: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.2N 18.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 24.08.2022 120 15.2N 18.0W 1004 32 0000UTC 25.08.2022 132 16.4N 20.1W 1007 26 1200UTC 25.08.2022 144 16.6N 23.0W 1006 27

This is the same wave that lead to most of those strong W basin TCs (those near the E Caribbean were around 8/26-28 and those near US were ~8/29-9/1). If you go on Tropical Tidbits and look at past GFS and GEFS runs, you can see it clearly.

The 12Z GFS is the most organized run with the "lead" AEW that came off ~two days ago since way back on the 6Z run of 8/17. Interesting because this is the AEW that lead to 4 GFS runs with a H in the W Atlantic and numerous GEFS as well as some EPS members that lead to Caribbean and/or SE and Gulf threats to the US.

Recon is expected in this within the next couple of hours based on an 1800Z/2PM EDT NHC plan. I see what appear to be two spins, both with convection near them: the larger one out ~150 miles north of the coast and a small one ~75 miles SSE of the larger one and ~75 miles N of the coast.

This latest area update brings 2022 up a good amount more vs the average of 2007-21. It is now at +460K vs the prior 15 year average for the date as compared to +390K as of two days ago. Since the July 12th update, the comparison has been in a pretty narrow range of +320K to +480K. So, it is now near the top of that range: Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K 7/16/22: +330K 7/20/22: +360K 7/23/22: +480K 7/26/22: +460K 7/30/22: +440K 8/7/22: +320K 8/10/22: +390K 8/13/22: +330K 8/16/22: +390K 8/18/22: +460K

Special TWO issued at 10:50 AM! ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1050 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche are getting better organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form later today or on Saturday while the system moves northwestward across the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico. However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Interests along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system could bring locally heavy rains to portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Beven

Based on the vis loop I just saw, I think the NHC chance for a TD forming will rise later today from the current 40%. With that, the chances of this becoming the first NS for this month are also rising imho. This may already be near TD status. Edit 10:45 AM EDT: With what appears to me to be a developing surface low with plentiful convection over the center, SSTs near the warmest in the Atlantic basin at 30 C/86 F, likely at least 18 hours left over open water/24+ hours before landfall, and this often being a favorable area to develop per history, I think this has a high chance to make it all of the way to TS status. Looking back, there have been a good number of examples of a TS forming within 24 hours of leaving the Yucatan as still a sub-TD near this location and with this trajectory.

I got ~1.75" of rain today from both some this morning and some this evening that lasted several hours (good soaking rain). I'm now up to a generous 6.04" mtd (from 5 different days of rain) vs the normal near 4" mtd. For the met. summer to date, I'm already at ~25", which is well above the ~20" for JJA.

This latest area update brings 2022 back up a decent amount vs the average of 2007-21. It is now at +390K vs the prior 15 year average for the date as compared to +330K as of three days ago. Since the July 12th update, the comparison has been in a pretty narrow range of +320K to +480K. Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K 7/16/22: +330K 7/20/22: +360K 7/23/22: +480K 7/26/22: +460K 7/30/22: +440K 8/7/22: +320K 8/10/22: +390K 8/13/22: +330K 8/16/22: +390K

By comparing the track density over the Bay of Campeche (using Weathernerds) for the last 4 EPS runs, one can clearly see a trend for an increase in the # of members with 20-30 knot surface lows forming in the S Bay of Campeche by tomorrow before heading into NE MX on Saturday. Yesterday's 18Z only had 2 followed by ~10 on today's 0Z and 6Z. The 12Z just out has ~15.

For the record/fwiw, the 12Z Euro has no TC in the entire basin through the entire run.

It is now Invest 99L. New thread:

Invest 99L has just been declared for the surprise well organized disturbance over the Yucatan. What will it do once into the Bay of Campeche? Models to this point have done next to nothing with it. Now we'll see what the HWRF and HMON do or don't do. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located over northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico have become a little better organized since yesterday. This system is forecast to emerge into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, where an area of low pressure could form. After that, additional slow development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Beven

The 12Z GEFS is harping on another system even further west (coming off NW S America) instead of the likely bogus one off of NE S America that the 6Z GEFS was harping on and the AEW now just off of Africa that the 0Z and earlier GEFS were harping on. Thus the GEFS runs don't give me a lot of confidence.

This is Joe Bastardi you're talking about, the hyper/weeniecaster in chief. He's not one imho to use as a barometer of forecasters. Besides being a weenie, he wants clicks. Who else predicted a very active period starting in mid August?

I went all of the way back to 1930 and found no storm with an origination and track similar to what the 6Z GEFS did with many members from off of S America starting in 72 hours that then went on to hit/threaten FL/Gulf coast (per my prior post) in any month. So, I'm calling this bogus at this point. Edit: 12Z GEFS is less active than 6Z GEFS off of S America. Likely was bogus.

For FL/Gulf coast, this 6Z GEFS is back to being close to the most active GEFS run yet, which was previously the 6Z GEFS from yesterday. But there's something a bit different about this run. Whereas the other active late month runs near FL were dominated by the AEW currently just off Africa and this newest one also has some activity from that AEW, this one is more dominated by something that seems to come off of S America (near Suriname) in only 72 hours (8/21), which is well in front of the wave now just off Africa. So, I wonder whether or not these TCs that originate off S America are bogus since they hadn't shown up before. Any opinions? Here's the progression of that area from off of S America: 96 hours: just N of S America 120 hours: nearing Windwards 144 hours: Windwards 168 hours: E Caribbean 192 hours: PR/Hispaniola 216 hours: Hispaniola/Cuba 240 hours: Cuba/Bahamas 264 hours: W Cuba/FL