GaWx

No measurable rainfall here the last 12 days (back to 7/22) including today.

What does August hold for NS in the basin? Consider these stats - Since 1995, there has been only one season with no August NS: the super strong El Nino of 1997. - Since 1995, 24 of 27 (89%) have had not just 2 but 3+ NS in August! Only 1997 (0), 2013 (2), and 2014 (weak El Nino)(2) had fewer than 3 in August. - 1996, 1998, and 1999 all had 4 NS in August but the first one for all three seasons wasn't til either August 18th or 19th! - The ENSO analog 2000 (3rd year La Nina) had 4 NS in August. - Even the pre-1995 ENSO analog of 1985 had 3 NS in August. Actually, all ENSO analogs even going back to the likely underreported years of the 1800s had at least 1 NS in August. Conclusion: Based on history since 1995, you'd have to be bold to go with fewer than 3 NS this August even with the quiet first week or so on the models. I think 3-4 is the most likely with only a slight lean toward 3 NS in August. Even if the first half has none, 1996, 1998, and 1999 all show that 4 NS the 2nd half of the month is doable. In addition, keep in mind that models often don't pick up on a general upturn in activity til the last minute or sometimes even not at all.

You can forget about that deal. ldub would be back, which is fine with me since it would show (s)he's OK and also it is an entertaining tradition that has always kept the threads active during quiet periods. As long as we don't take these posts too seriously, they're ok imho. Plus bearish posts are good to see imho to keep a good balance in the discussions. Sometimes the bears will be right. Keep in mind that ldub's posting is (and always has been) strictly from the perspective of the threat for someone on the mid-Atlantic coast or NE US coast being hit and hit really hard not just regular hard (example: 2021, despite the above normal NE US activity, was excluded by ldub as quiet/weak despite an uncommon double TS direct hit season in addition to strong Ida effects). Bad seasons for portions of the SE US or US Gulf coast matter little to ldub if the upper US east coast is not also hit hard. When ldub posts about steering that is/isn't favorable for a hit, that's not necessarily the case for the SE US or Gulf coast. More specifically to get the ldub-o-meter going, you need seasons (since 1950) like 2012, 2011 (ldub's area hit), 2003 (ldub's area hit), 1999 (ldub hit), 1996, 1991, 1985, 1976, 1960, 1955, 1954, and 1953. That's only 12 seasons out of the last 72 or only 1 in 6 seasons. Seasons since 1950 that instead only hit the SE and/or the Gulf coast really hard and with 2+ H hits like 2021, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2008, 2005, 2004, 1998, 1995, 1989, 1979, 1964, 1959, and 1950 would likely have never gotten the ldub meter going due to not enough NE US impact. Without ldub's restrictive criteria, it could easily be argued that about twice as many seasons since 1950 had multiple and major US impact (over 1/3 of the seasons). Edit: keep in mind that I'm not even including seasons with just one big SE or Gulf hit like 1992, 1974, 1970, 1969, 1967, 1965, and 1957 among others which obviously could have also been included. When seasons like those are also included, you're at ~50% chance for a high impact US season vs only ~1/3 that high per ldub's perspective. Edit #2: As I've said before, this year does appear to me based on analogs as well as when considering recent prevailing steering that ldub has been harping on to be extra risky for at least one direct hit on the NE GOM (FL). By extension, that would imply some extra risk for something that would possibly then go up into the SE and/or up the SE coast as well as possibly then up the NE coast. But my primary concern is for the FL Gulf coast. Every ENSO analog that I considered had significant to major FL Gulf coast activity.

IMBY this month: a wet total 11.98", which compares to ~7" normal. But that doesn't tell the whole story. - July 1-11 had a whopping 10.65", at or near the wettest ever for that period/near 4 times the normal - July 12-31: only 1.33" with none the past 10 days vs ~4.5" longtime average for July 12-31. So, I ended up <1/3 the normal for July 12-31. What a lopsided month! Another way to look at it: first third at 7.05", which is one of the wettest, if not, THE wettest for July 1-10. Last third (July 22-31) with no rain: tied for the driest. But the wet still easily wins for the month.

I should add that based on my memory, the quietness often (though not always of course) suddenly ends before models have a good handle. I remember a number of times when after a long quiet period a storm pops up with at most 2-3 days of a signal even on the ensembles and then sometimes followed soon by a series of storms. Even this year, I recall Colin having hardly any model support. But I'm talking even much stronger and larger storms than Colin being practically totally missed. I'm not predicting this will happen, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if that's what occurs when we switch from quiet to active based on history.

That's not true. Bonnie was a very strong MDR wave and, as a matter of fact, was one of the strongest June MDR waves ever. In addition, the MDR overall was very active in late June. It was so active that folks were in awe of how active it was so early in the season and wondering about implications for how active that might mean for the heart of the season. But then there was the drastic change to much quieter/drier. Just like we've had a drastic change to drier since Bonnie, things will change again as we get closer to the meat of the season, even based on 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral analogs. There's no way it will stay this quiet.

I wouldn't at all consider 1972 since it was a strong El Niño.

This latest area update brings down 2022 slightly again vs the average of 2007-21. It is now at +440K vs the prior 15 year average for the date as compared to +460K as of four days ago. Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K 7/16/22: +330K 7/20/22: +360K 7/23/22: +480K 7/26/22: +460K 7/30/22: +440K

Comparing 2022 to 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral analogs: 1. Date of 3rd NS 2022: 7/2 (earlier than all 8 analogs) 2000: 8/17 1985: 8/9 1975: 8/24 1956: 7/25..this was only analog season with 3 NS as of now just like 2022 1917: 8/30 1910: 9/5 1894: 8/30 1874: 8/28 2. 1st MDR storm 2022: 7/1 (earlier than all 8 analogs) 2000: 8/3 1985: 8/12 1975: 9/13 1956: 8/9 1917: 7/6 1910: 8/23 1894: 8/30 1874: 8/28 3. 1st MH 2022: very likely after 8/7 2000: 8/11 1985: 8/30 1975: 8/30 1956: 8/9 (earliest) 1917: 8/30 1910: 10/11 1894: 9/1 (this year had highest ACE of analogs with 135) 1874: no MH

I've decided to go with a 2022 ACE of 120, moderately above the longterm average. I had been thinking within the 110-140 range for awhile. But because models are suggesting little chance for the next storm through the first week of August and with ACE now only ~3, I decided to go with 120. It being La Nina and during the very active era that started in 1995 tells me to go with active and 120 is active. But with it being 3rd year La Niña (they've averaged lower ACE than other La Niña) and with a good chance that ACE as of August 7th will still be only ~3, I decided to go only moderately above the longterm average. A 120 would still be the 2nd most active 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral on record (exceeded only by 1894), very near the 119 of 3rd year Niña analog 2000, and well above the average 3rd year Niña/cold neutral, but it would be below the average/median non-El Niño since 1995, which is 153/146. My biggest concern area anywhere in the Atlantic basin remains the Gulf coast of Florida as per 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral analogs since all 8 years had significant impact there.

Mike, Just to clarify, my point in giving the stats to that poster about 8/28 MHs is to say that you're predicting something that's not likely even per active era stats and thus would deserve kudos if it is right. It wouldn't surprise me if you end up right.

Mike actually is going somewhat out on the limb because the chances for there being a MH on the map on August 28th are not as high as you think, even taking into account being in La Nina during the very active era since 1995: - The very active 2021 and 2020 La Nina seasons had none - The last season with a MH on the map on 8/28 was in the La Nina season of 2016 (Gaston). - Before that, one has to go back to the La Nina season of 2010 (Danielle). - Then you have to go back to 2005 (Katrina) and 2004 (Frances). - Then back to 1999 (Cindy) and 1996 (Edouard). None in 1995 - So, for the 27 seasons 1995-2021, only 6 (22%) had a MH on August 28th. - Even for just the 10 La Nina Augusts back to 1995, there were still only 3 (30%) that had a MH in the Atlantic basin on August 28th (2016, 2010, and 1999). So, Mike really is making a pretty bold prediction since the odds are against him.

IMBY this month: - July 1-11 had a whopping 10.65", at or near the wettest ever for that period/near 4 times the normal - July 12-27: only 1.33" with none the past 7 days and little or none expected the rest of the month vs ~4.5" longtime average for July 12-31. So, will end up <1/3 the normal for July 12-31 if no more rain. What a lopsided month! But the wet will still easily win with the 11.98" I've already gotten a good 175% of the longterm average.

There really isn't any naysaying of significance imho other than from the eternal naysayer doing it over and over because that's what ldub does and has done way back to before you even did your very first video tropical update many years ago. I have nothing against bearish opinions, whatsoever, and actually think it is good for these discussions since the tendency on wx bbs is for a bullish slant. But sometimes it is done for trolling purposes just to get a reaction from the bulls. That's what I say this is without a doubt based on history. Now that being said, IF this season were to unexpectedly end up weak, I'd be the first one to give major kudos to the broken clock!

Unfortunately I don't know. However, I just found this for 1984-1998: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/monthly_mean.html and this for 2000: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/2000.html

3rd year La Nina (including borderline cold neutral) ACE: 1874: 47 1894: 135 1910: 64 1917: 61 1956: 54 1975: 76 1985: 88 2000: 119 Quiet early years like 1874, 1910, and 1917 were very likely a good bit higher in reality. And with it being a very active era, I feel that the higher ACE 3rd year La Nina years like 1894 (135) and 2000 (119) are close to where I am as of now. One thing I remain pretty comfortable with is this highly likely not ending up being a hyperactive season. Third year La Nina seasons have pretty consistently not been as active as respective prior (2nd year La Nina) seasons. But another thing is that every one of these years had significant impact somewhere on the Gulf coast of FL. Thus, I highly doubt it will turn out to be quiet for the US as whole even if ACE ends up near or even below the longterm average. Consider how bad 1985 was on the US, for example. I'm not forecasting another 1985 level of US impact necessarily but am just saying that a lower ACE can be quite deceiving.

We're near the peak of prime "season cancel" season. Per this, this month's quiet, which is fairly typical of July in being quiet, is largely due to SAL, which tends to peak around now:

Based on this, the last 3 days have had a very small drop in area vs the 2007-21 average area from +480K to +460K. Average actual drop in area per day in July of 2022 so far has been ~70K. Here is the updated summary: Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K 7/16/22: +330K 7/20/22: +360K 7/23/22: +480K 7/26/22: +460K

So what? Then the broken clock would receive mucho kudos. We would then be in awe of your absolutely amazing psychic abilities for 2022. There's a first time for everything and I'd expect you to keep reminding us of your incredible prediction in future seasons when you do your traditional downplaying. "Remember what I said about 2022 blah blah...." I guess you're going to milk this for as long as it stays quiet even though quiet now is not at all out of the ordinary. You are very good at what you do but it is just shtick to try to get to especially the newbies. This is so retro for the very longterm folks here. I feel like we're going back in time lol. But as @cptcatzsaid, 2000 was actually more active than expected. And 2022 isn't forecasted to be hyperactive.

1. Totally normal. Strong waves of dust (called SAL) are most common from late June through mid August. Just like tropical waves coming off Africa, waves of SAL coming off are normal. They originate from strong enough wind storms over the Sahara that result in dust thousands of feet up into the air (sandstorms) that then travel westward into the Atlantic with the same prevailing easterly steering flow that brings tropical waves westward from Africa. SAL waves come off on average every 3-5 days. 2. Yes, each SAL wave is associated with a lowered chance for a tropical cyclone to form due to a combo of much drier air vs tropical air and also increased vertical wind shear. But as we get well into August, the protection from SAL waves typically reduces and thus is a strong factor in increased tropical activity by late August and even more so in September. 3. SAL often causes extra colorful sunsets over Florida in summer. https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/state/2022/05/23/saharan-dust-florida-2022-georgia-map-tropical-cyclone/9892279002/ Edit: I see that windspeed posted while I was still typing. So, you get two replies on this.

1. It is only July 24th! What's happened til now has practically no bearing on how the rest of the season will play out per actual stats. 2. There has been no study connecting European heat and quieter Atlantic hurricane seasons. There was also major European heat in 2019 and 2017. Yet, the Atlantic was active in 2019 with 132 ACE/Dorian/Humberto/18 NS. Also, it was hyperactive in 2017 with the 7th highest ACE/Harvey/Irma/6 MH! Besides, there is no super ridge "locked in" over Europe. What matters most is the setup 1-3 months from now, not the next couple of weeks. 3. In 2003 you said Isabel was going to harmlessly recurve and then your area unfortunately got slammed. Thankfully you were ok, but how can we take you seriously about the rest of the season on the east coast when you blew Isabel so badly just days out? 4. 2003 having "a lot of weak sauce and out to sea nothings"? Well, it had a way above average ACE of 177. Besides Isabel, Fabian was a cat 3-4 for a full week and it slammed Bermuda as a cat 3. Also, H Claudette hit TX. 5. I already gave a reason (3rd year La Nina stats) why I don't think 2022 will end up hyperactive though I still lean to it ending up active. As of now, I'm in the general vicinity of 110-140 ACE. That's significantly above the long-term average even though it is a little below the 150s average since 1995 for non-El Nino seasons. 6. Living not too far inland and thus not wanting to have my family's and my lives badly disrupted, I certainly would love to have less to worry about with the season being weak or at least quiet near the SE US. But I just don't see a weak season nor one not having significant effects on the US. Third year La Nina analogs say watch out Gulf coast of FL especially!

This means that 2022 vs the 2007-21 average has risen significantly over the last three days. So, as of 7/23, 2022 is now up to +480K vs the 2007-21 average compared to the +360K as of 7/20. This increasing trend vs those years has been going on for practically the entire July: Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K 7/16/22: +330K 7/20/22: +360K 7/23/22: +480K

Plenty of thunder from nearby storms the last two days but no rainfall was measured. I remain at a very wet 11.98" MTD.

We're about to get slammed by a band of heavy thunderstorms here at around 2:45 PM. The hits just keep coming! I ended up with 0.36", bringing me to 11.98" for the month so far. Entire month normal is near 7".

Based on this, there was a small gain vs the 2007-2021 area mean between 7/16/22 and 7/20/22: Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K 7/16/22: +330K 7/20/22: +360K