GaWx

This latest area update has 2022 at about the same as three days ago vs the average of 2007-21. It is now at +470K vs the prior 15 year average for the date. Since the July 12th update, the comparison has been in a pretty narrow range of +320K to +480K. So, it is now near the top of that range: Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K 7/16/22: +330K 7/20/22: +360K 7/23/22: +480K 7/26/22: +460K 7/30/22: +440K 8/7/22: +320K 8/10/22: +390K 8/13/22: +330K 8/16/22: +390K 8/18/22: +460K 8/21/22: +470K

I got a brief shower today near midday giving me 0.2". I'm now near 9" mtd/28" summer to date. This evening I had a thunderstorm with a fairly short period of heavy rain. Rain amount to be determined later. And now another heavy shower has started at ~7:30 PM. Total rainfall from the two periods of 8/22 evening rainfall: 0.75". So, 0.95" for 8/22 excluding the stuff continuing til just after midnight that I had accounted for in an earlier post. This puts me at a very wet 9.87" for mtd and nearing 29" summer to date. Edit on 8/23: some light rain 8/23 measuring 0.04" this afternoon. Now 9.91" mtd/~29" summer td

This gets to as strong as a 982 mb hurricane on the 12Z GFS on Sept 3rd as it recurves well offshore the US after getting as far west as 70W (at 30N) on Sept 1st.

it is very early and convection will likely wane (like it is now doing) and wax for the next several days. So far, it continues to remain largely separated from the nearby strong SAL as they both move westward.

90L has just been designated. This based on projected steering is a potential troublemaker for the E Caribbean, Bahamas, and the CONUS for around late next week. It is the so called "lead AEW" that is now near 16N, 29-30W, that has lead to a good number of GFS runs (back to the 0Z of 8/15 run), many GEFS members, and some EPS members doing just that. OTOH, the Euro had done little with it until the 12Z 8/19 run though it had one earlier run (8/12/22 12Z) with a weak but organizing surface low late. Today's 0Z Euro did have this at 992 mb just E of the Bahamas at day 10. Starting last night near DMAX, convection centered on the weak low blossomed and it has maintained itself. The latest SAL outbreak's SE edge has been moving westward with this to its NW and N, but has so far remained separated and allowed the convection to hold on many hours past DMAX. https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al902022 AL, 90, 2022082212, , BEST, 0, 162N, 293W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, SPAWNINVEST, al782022 to al902022 ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Latto

At DMAX, one can clearly see on this image (as of 06Z on 8/22/22) a pickup in convection centered on the westward moving weak surface low centered near 16N, 30W, as it stays away from the back edge of the SAL, which is just to its NW and N also moving westward:

Thunderstorms gave me heavy rains at times during the early evening (8/21) and rain restarted late this evening that has lasted past midnight of 8/22. I don't have rain amounts yet. Edit: 0.88" total on 8/21 through very early AM 8/22 bringing me to 8.92" mtd and near 28" met summer so far.

As mentioned, the 12Z EPS was more active with the AEW W of the CVs vs the 6Z/0Z. The 18Z EPS is even a bit more active with it in having 5 members (10%) with SLP 1000-1003 mb at hour 144. The 12Z run had only 3 that strong, the 6Z had only 2, and the 0Z had none.

SAL as of 5PM EDT: image showing the SE edge of it a couple of hundred miles NW of the E Atlantic low That low is near 30W and 16N:

I know it is from a wave west of the one now just west of the CVs and may be from the one recently near 40W: ICON keeps developing a low just E of the L Antilles that I can't find on any of the other models. Anyone else notice this?

The 12Z EPS is somewhat more active with this low just W of the CVs fwiw (centered just W of 40W here):

The E MDR weak low is now to the west of the CVs, which can clearly be seen here at 18Z/2 PM EDT approaching 30W and is just SE of the end of this MDR SAL outbreak as both move westward:

Below is the latest SAL analysis, this one as of 15Z/11 AM EDT today. Note that the weak E ATL low/wave is actually just to the SE of the SAL as the SAL stops near 28W within the MDR and this wave is at 26W. What are the board's thoughts with regard to SAL as it pertains to this AEW?

I'd venture to bet that reality is somewhere between the 18Z and 0Z GFS. Also, the 0Z GEFS not surprisingly suggests the 0Z GFS is an outlier.

The 0Z GFS is a ldub special! It will give her/him something to complain about.

Bust! But good news for those impacted.

I've been guessing an active but nowhere near hyperactive ACE of 120 (most likely range ~110-135) for the full 2022 since late July. Despite it still being at only 2.8 as of 3 weeks later, I'm staying with active (120) for now based on recent days of modeling. Edit: I last guessed 3 NS this month and 6 NS next month. I'm not changing those either. Highest threat area of CONUS remains the Gulf coast of FL as per 8 ENSO analogs though that's not the only threat area.

Based on the current and recent runs of models, it appears there will most likely be two MDR areas to focus on: 1. What's now in the E Atlantic, which the models have been suggesting for many days is now in the process of combining two packets of energy into one. This one may be moisture starved and thus has been shown to do little until getting pretty far west, at which time 5-6 GFS runs as well as a good number of GEFS members from many runs have shown it to later strengthen into a H and threaten the Caribbean, Bahamas, FL, and the Gulf. It appears to me that this one is the higher threat to the lower SE US/Gulf based on projected steering. 2. What's still in W Africa, which looks to develop further east and thus could ultimately get stronger and larger. This second area looks to me to possibly also threaten the US. However, if so, my educated guess is that that would be upper SC to NE vs FL/Gulf for the first one. Things will change but that's how it looks to me as of now.

The 0Z slams SE FL with a cat 2 H early on 9/2 from the same E Atlantic wave:

A pair of heavy thunderstorms 5:45-7 PM have dropped over 2" here with lots of street flooding. That brings me to over 8" mtd, which is double the normal for 8/1-19 and over 27" met. summer to date! Edit: total was 2" bringing me to 8.04" mtd and ~27" met summer so far

Today's 12Z Euro is only the 2nd Euro op run developing this wave at all. The only other run that did anything with it was the 8/12 12Z run, which ended with this map: So, it took one week of runs for the Euro to develop this AEW at all again!

The 12Z GEFS is the most threatening run to the CONUS from the current E Atlantic AEW since the 0Z 8/18 run. The 6Z 8/18 run had a number of threats but that was mainly from what I consider bogus stuff coming off of the area near Suriname in S America.

The 12Z GFS is back to having a hurricane in the W Atlantic (now the 5th run over the last 5 days or so) with the AEW now in the E Atlantic: As I said, this makes 5 GFS runs with a W Atlantic H from the AEW now in the E Atlantic. These are the runs: 8/15 0Z, 8/16 6Z, 8/17 0Z, 8/17 6Z, and 8/19 12Z.

Meanwhile, the 12Z UKMET is the first with a TC on it in many days and the first in the MDR since even further back/probably weeks. This is NOT the same AEW just discussed above (no UKMET run has developed that one) as regards the GFS but rather is a later one not coming off Africa for a few more days: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.2N 18.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 24.08.2022 120 15.2N 18.0W 1004 32 0000UTC 25.08.2022 132 16.4N 20.1W 1007 26 1200UTC 25.08.2022 144 16.6N 23.0W 1006 27

This is the same wave that lead to most of those strong W basin TCs (those near the E Caribbean were around 8/26-28 and those near US were ~8/29-9/1). If you go on Tropical Tidbits and look at past GFS and GEFS runs, you can see it clearly.