GaWx

So, I wrote all of that stuff about his MEI tables and analyzed the MEI way more than I ever have only to later see him say it has a lot of flaws? Bummer!

You worry too much. It is just weather. We’d very likely survive a mild winter. Personally, I have way bigger concerns in my life lol. If that were my biggest concern, I’d be a very happy camper! Actually for me, winter is my favorite season even if mild even though I’d much rather have it cold way down here in the Deep South, where cold is so outweighed by heat and humidity overall.

Yes it would increase the chance of a warm winter though that doesn’t necessarily mean it would be warm. It could be near normal and there’s always the fluke chance of it being cold. I’ll again gear this to the SE/Midsouth since that’s near where you live. Of the 25 El Niño winters since 1951-2, I found NONE that were BN in the bulk of our area with an MEI of 0.4 or lower in winter although some were near normal. So, clearly the message is that the chances during El Niño of getting a BN winter are higher with an MEI of +0.5 at the very least. So, we’ll definitely want to see it bounce back higher with the next update. Aside: There were two warm neutral winters (per ONI) that had a MEI of 0.3 or lower in winter that were BN in the SE: 1993-4 and 2003-4. But those weren’t El Niños. Thus they’re irrelevant.

Of course, it depends on the region. For the SE US including much of TN, the 10 coldest El Niño winters back to 1951-2 were 1957-8, 1963-4, 1965-6, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, 1977-8, 2002-3, 2009-10, and 2014-5. Per Webb’s table these were the rounded DJ MEIs: +1.5, +0.9, +1.3, +1.2, +0.8, +0.8, +0.7, +1.0, +1.1, and +0.5. So, range of +0.5 to +1.5 for the DJ MEI with a mean of +0.95 and a median of +0.95. So, sweet spot near +1.0 for the 10 coldest in the SE. The 6 coldest were 1957-8, 1963-4, 1969-70, 1976-7, 1977-8, and 2009-10. MEIs for these 6: +1.5, +0.9, +0.8, +0.8, +0.7, and +1.1. So, range of +0.7 to +1.5 with mean of +1.0 and median of +0.85. I’d say for the SE that if we could get this winter a DJ MEI to within the +0.6 to +1.2 range, a <-0.50 DJF AO, and a <+0.25 NAO, I’d bet heavily on a 2F or more BN DJF. With SO at +0.26, what are the odds of getting a +0.6 to +1.2 three bimonths later? We’d need a rise of 0.34 to 0.94. What % of the 25 El Niños rose within/near that range? 20% (these five: 1968-9, 1982-3, 1986-7, 1991-2, and 2009-10). The avg change from SO to DJ is ~0. Nearly half (12 of 25) fell. None rose more than 0.7. So, now that the MEI unexpectedly dropped 0.33 this bimonth, the challenge will be for it to rise enough with little chance of it rising too much. So, I’ll be rooting for a significant rise in the next two bimonths. I’d like to see a rise of +0.2+ back to +0.5+ in ON. Edit: Was 2023’s drop of 0.33 from AS to SO the largest back to 1948 for El Nino? Actually, no as 1986 dropped slightly more (0.40) before it rebounded 0.50 from SO to ND, which I’d love to see. Webb’s 1948-2019 MEI: https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html

Do you or does anyone else have a link to MEI before 1979? I’d like to see the MEI for more El Niños.

Latest WCS daily PDO (11/6) is -0.94 after dipping back to -1.03 on 10/31. Keep in mind though that the NOAA equivalent daily PDO has been much lower and could very well be near or even lower than -2.00 as Oct came in at -2.36 vs WCS’ ~-1.00:

It could. I suspect this is based on a stronger El Niño.

The updated NMME qpf for DJF appears to be out early (being that it is a 0Z Nov 8th run) and is much wetter in both the E US and W US vs the prior run. The temperatures aren’t out yet: Old run:

So, you think that the globe being ~1F warmer than any other Oct is enough to confidentially say that about the E US even with ENSO being dramatically different from a year ago?

Never mind the forecasts. I’m confused about the CFS initialization. The CFS graph that I posted has ~+0.2 as of 12Z on 11/6 (initialization) vs ~-0.6 for the supposed actual at about the same time. Anyone understand the discrepancy?

This shows the current AAM is slightly positive to neutral rather than negative. Am I missing something?

Nov of 1963, 65, 82, 86, 94, and 06 all had a -0.31 or lower PNA in November. Five of those six (all but 1965) ended up with a +0.69+ +PNA for DJF. Two of those five actually had -1.39 or lower in Nov. Is it that big of a deal that there’s a -PNA/+EPO showing up at midmonth? Might it just be transitory like it was in the five years noted above?

The daily PDO is finally headed back up on WCS, where it has risen back up to -0.90 (as of 11/5) after dipping on Oct 31st to -1.03 (of course it is significantly lower than -0.90 on NOAA but I’m looking at the trend):

Based on my analysis of SOIs for El Niños since 1950, I feel that the SOI has already been reflective of a strong El Niño. It was -10.45 for ASO. Since 1950 prior to 2023, this is how the ASO SOI came out for El Niños: - The five super-strong averaged -16 (range -11 to -21). - The four strong ones averaged -8 (range -5 to -12). - The six moderate averaged -7 with a range of -1 to -12. - The 10 weak ones also averaged -7 (with a range of +1 to -12). - Thus, this came in weaker than the super-strong range but within the upper part of the strong range for ASO. https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt

But the tropical WPAC area between 15N and 15S, 120E and 160E, was only the 25th warmest on record and is the area that the pro met, Brad Harvey, follows for the main WPAC forcing. Why do you follow that much bigger area (how did you come up with 0-40N, 100E to Dateline) and also why don’t you include down to 15S, which is cooler between 120 and 160W?

Would you please post the Euro’s 2 meter temperature forecast for each of D, J, and F? Also, what is the climo base period?

From my standpoint here in the SE for wanting a normal or cooler winter, I’ll take any El Niño influence over none. Just get rid of the dominating SER of the last few winters. Get rid of anything resembling a typical La Nina. Thus a strong El Niño atmospheric influence would be a major improvement for me.

For those not wanting a La Ninalike/SER/MJO 4-5 dominant type of pattern, wouldn’t it actually be good rather than bad news that El Niño will likely have a strong instead of weak atmospheric influence?

Thanks for the link. 1. Excellent point about it miserably failing in its Nov H5 forecast for the prior Nino D, J, and F, 2018-9. And I’m not a big proponent of seasonal forecasts in general due to lack of accuracy. But, will it fail again? At least this time the Nino is much stronger with ASO of 2023 RONI of +1.05 vs only +0.39 for ASO of 2018. 2018-9’s RONI peaked at only +0.76, 0.29 weaker than RONI already is. It is likely headed to near a high end moderate. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt Also, the ASO of 2023 SOI was -10.4 vs only -4.2 for ASO of 2018: https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt So, does the fact that the 2023-4 El Niño is much stronger than 2018-9 mean much? 2. The good news for folks who don’t want a warm E US winter is that the Nov of 2017 as well as Nov of 2019-22 Euro forecasts all had much higher H5 heights in the E US and the Aleutians in all of the D, J, and F forecasts vs what the Nov of 2023 forecast is for the upcoming D, J, and F. Nov of 2018 is the only Nov forecast back to 2017 even remotely similar to Nov of 2023.

Indeed, it is about the same as last month with an ONI peak near +2.08. But keep in mind that the Euro was much too warm in Oct. So, I don’t buy it peaking that high and remain in the +1.7 to +1.9 range for at least now.

The SE US can average very cold with a “warm” Canada. Actually, that’s typical of a +PNA because the Canadian air is pushed way down into the US, where it can be very cold vs averages even if the originating air is warm to Canadian averages:

The is a learning process at least for me. I realize it wouldn’t be anything near wall to wall in 6 because it never is that way in any phase. But I just hope that should this model happen to be right with the bulge that it wouldn’t mean more of 6/7 than average due to MJO waves being triggered at 6.

The good news from my perspective is that the seasonal models are not dependable because I’d much rather that main bulge be ~30-40 degrees E of where this has it. That is assuming that that main bulge will be the main driver. Would it be?This has the light blues of the bulge from 150E to 170W or centered on 170E. That would favor MJO phase 6 as per the top image below. Phase 6 is the warmest phase for the E US in JFM per the 2nd image below. As one (like most of us) who would like a cool to cold E US winter, I’d prefer it be supportive of phases 8 and 1, which would be supported by enhanced precip a fair bit east of the dateline or near the heart of Nino 3.4 (say, 160W to 140W/centered near 150W) instead of being centered near 170E:

Not what I wanted to see for Dec -AO prospects compared to prior runs but hoping it is just a wobble rather than portending an actual model trend away from the notably weak SPV shown on several runs last week. This one has the ensemble mean’s low at 30-31 m/s (normal for then is 35) vs one run last week being way down at 21 m/s and yesterday’s at 27:

Griteater and some others, largely based on an external study, feel that the chance for a -NAO is enhanced this winter because of it still being during the ascending portion of the sunspot cycle despite approaching maximum. My analysis is based strictly on the last 44 winters since the winter -NAOs became scarce because of a perceived change in influences. The external study was based on going way further back than that and thus includes the prior era when -NAO winters were much more frequent. My analysis of the 6 -NAO winters since 1979-80: 1984-5: (NAO -0.70) (moderate La Niña) headed down in cycle 21 with limited sunspots averaging only 20/month; this was 20 months before the minimum of Sept 1986 1986-7: (NAO -0.30) (moderate El Niño) very early in cycle 22 four months after the Sept 86 minimum with very limited sunspots of only 6/month 1995-6: (NAO -0.62) (moderate La Niña) headed down in cycle 22 with limited sunspots of only 12/month nine months before Sept 1996 minimum 2009-10: (NAO -1.67) (strong El Niño) one year into cycle 24 at 13 months after the Dec 2008 minimum just starting to head upward but with still limited sunspots of only 22/month 2010-11: (NAO -0.68) (strong La Niña) two years into cycle 24 at 25 months after the Dec 2008 minimum headed further up but still low at 33/month 2020-1: (NAO -0.42) (moderate La Niña) early into cycle 25 at 13 months after the Dec of 2019 minimum just starting to head up but still with limited sunspots of only 14/month So, these six were 20 months before min (1984-5), 4 months after min (1986-7), 9 months before min (1995-6), 13 months after min (2009-10) 25 months after min (2010-2), and 13 months after min (2020-1). So, these six averaged only 4 months after min, which isn’t really saying that much about it favoring ascending. To me it says a lot more about favoring being near min than favoring ascending. But that’s just my thinking.