GaWx

CSU's updated analog seasons: 1886, 1926, 1933, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2020 Year/ASO ONI (using Eric Webb 1st 3 and NOAA RONI for 1995+): -1886/-0.8: record tying 6 CONUS landfalling storms as H, all in Gulf (one landfall barely missed as hit far NE MX that still lead to H winds S TX); 3 were in June! -1926/0.0: 3 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing S FL that still lead to H winds S FL); bad year FL/Gulf; 4th highest ACE -1933/-1.1: 4 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing NC that still lead to H winds NC/VA); bad year SE FL, S TX, NC/VA; highest ACE -1995/-0.7: 2 CONUS landfalling storms as H in FL; 5th highest ACE -2005/0.0: 5 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing NC that still lead to H winds NC); bad year Gulf/SFL; 2nd highest ACE -2010/-1.6: 0 CONUS landfalling storms as H -2020/-1.2: record tying 6 CONUS landfalling storms as H; bad year W/C Gulf So, the avg # of landfalling storms on the CONUS as a H for these 7 years was a very ominous 4. Clearly, the best hope for CONUS when considering these analogs for a tame rest of season is for something similar to 2010 with its 0 H landfalls and only 2 TS hits, one minimal. However, note that ASO RONI was way down at -1.6, the lowest ASO ONI/RONI on record. Very low ASO (mod to strong Nina) on avg have not been as bad for CONUS H hits as weaker Ninas. With the most likely ASO RONI having risen to weak to low end moderate Nina territory, it is unlikely as of now that Nina will be that strong. Also, Beryl hitting TX probably isn't a good sign. Thus, the case for 2010-like tracks for the rest of 2024 is kind of weak as of now though I'll still hope.

RDU at 97 was hottest major station in the state Monday by 2F:MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR NC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC 815 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2024 .BR RDU 0708 ES DH19/TAIRZS/TAIRZI/PPDRZZ : : HIGH PAST 18 HOURS / LOW PAST 24 HOURS /PCPN LAST 24 HOURS : : MAX MIN 24-HR :ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN : AVL :ASHEVILLE : 88 / 70 / 0.01 BUY :BURLINGTON : 91 / 72 / T CLT :CHARLOTTE : 92 / 75 / 0.51 ECG :ELIZABETH CITY : 90 / 74 / 0.00 EWN :NEW BERN : 91 / 74 / 0.99 FAY :FAYETTEVILLE : 94 / 75 / 0.00 GSO :GREENSBORO : 91 / 73 / T HSE :CAPE HATTERAS : 89 / 78 / 0.00 ILM :WILMINGTON : 91 / 76 / 0.07 INT :WINSTON-SALEM : 92 / 75 / T LBT :LUMBERTON : 95 / 75 / 0.00 MEB :LAURINBURG-MAXTON : 91 / 75 / 0.00 MRH :BEAUFORT : 88 / 81 / 0.00 RDU :RALEIGH-DURHAM : 97 / 75 / 0.00 RWI :ROCKY MT-WILSON : 95 / 74 / 0.00

It isn’t included in these but the ICON was best of the more respected globals with the W GOM landfall in C TX. This goes back to the 12Z 6/30 run into Galveston! It then had runs up into LA or near the TX/LA border as late as the 6Z on 7/3, which weren’t good. However, starting on 12Z 7/3 (when ICON hit C TX while GFS, Euro, CMC, and UKMET were into NE MX) onward ICON was always between Galveston and Corpus. So, major kudos! CMC wasn’t consistently TX til 0Z of 7/6. UKMET wasn’t til 12Z of 7/5. Euro/GFS wasn’t til 0Z of 7/5. (ICON also did well with Ian for FL and SC landfalls (2nd best to UKMET)). JMA gets a well deserved honorable mention as it was similar to the ICON with its 12Z 6/30 run and had several more runs (12Z runs on 6/2, 3, 4) into Galveston followed by 6/5-6 at CC. Actual landfall wasn’t up at upper TX coast but still the 6/30 and 7/2-4 JMA runs into Galveston were much closer to actual landfall than GFS/Euro/UKMET then. Only the ICON was overall about as close. So, my ratings of globals for W GOM portion of track: Best: ICON and JMA Next best but not close: GFS/Euro Further back: UKMET Worst: CMC

I remember many of us salivating about this and other H5 maps for 23-4. (By the way, I’m hoping we’ll see maps like this posted in the 25-6 thread.) I mean it had El Niño, Aleutian low, strong +PNA, -NAO, and -AO. It had the pentafecta of wx indices for great E US winter potential! I was even thinking I’d have a decent chance for a wintry precip event way down here, which would have been the 1st in 6 years. Well, El Niño was correct and we had a modest +PNA. But the Aleutian low and -NAO were miserable fails. And the AO averaged neutral, which was a moderate fail. The SE still averaged only slightly warmer than normal. So, I can’t complain too much. This Euro 24-5 map has La Niña, Aleutian high, -PNA, +NAO, and +AO. Exact opposites. All the things that most E US cold/snowy winter lovers don’t want.

Forecasted Jan 2025 H5 height anomalies from July Euro: most of US 2.4-3.5 dm above climo

Here’s something NOT different as of 3PM: RDU’s 94 is the warmest in the entire state. What a shocker:NORTH CAROLINA WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 300 PM EDT MON JUL 08 2024 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR S TO VISIBILITY. NCZ001-053-055-056-065-067-082000- WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS ASHEVILLE MOSUNNY 87 71 58 S9 30.11F JEFFERSON PTSUNNY 79 68 69 CALM 30.19F MORGANTON MOSUNNY 89 74 60 CALM 30.08F HX 97 HICKORY NOT AVBL WILKESBORO MOSUNNY 88 68 51 CALM 30.11F RUTHERFORDTON PTSUNNY 86 72 62 CALM 30.08F MOUNT AIRY NOT AVBL BOONE MOSUNNY 82 70 67 SE7 30.01F NCZ021-022-025-041-071-084-088-082000- CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CHARLOTTE PTSUNNY 87 71 58 VRB3 30.04F GREENSBORO PTSUNNY 89 73 59 VRB3 30.04F HX 97 WINSTON-SALEM MOSUNNY 90 72 55 VRB3 30.06F HX 97 RALEIGH-DURHAM PTSUNNY 94 N/A N/A NW3 30.04F FORT LIBERTY MOSUNNY 93 72 49 E7 30.00F HX 100 FAYETTEVILLE MOSUNNY 92 72 51 SE3 30.01F HX 99 BURLINGTON MOSUNNY 88 72 58 CALM 30.03F ROXBORO MOSUNNY 86 72 62 SW6 30.06F HENDERSON NOT AVBL LOUISBURG MOSUNNY 90 73 58 S6 30.05F HX 98 LAURINBURG CLOUDY 85 72 65 S12 30.03F NCZ011-015-027-028-043-044-047-080-103-082000- NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS ROCKY MT-WILSO MOSUNNY 93 65 39 SW8 30.02F HX 95 GREENVILLE PTSUNNY 91 73 55 SW5 30.01F HX 100 ELIZABETH CITY PTSUNNY 88 75 65 E7 30.02F HX 97 MANTEO MOSUNNY 89 73 60 N9 30.04F HX 97 CAPE HATTERAS MOSUNNY 88 79 74 SW7 30.04F HX 103 NCZ078-087-090-091-093-098-101-082000- SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS LUMBERTON MOSUNNY 93 72 50 W15 30.01F HX 101 GOLDSBORO PTSUNNY 92 69 46 W3 29.99F HX 97 KINSTON MOSUNNY 90 75 62 SW7 30.03F HX 100 KENANSVILLE PTSUNNY 88 77 70 CALM 30.03F HX 100 NEW BERN PTSUNNY 85 76 74 N5 30.04F CHERRY POINT PTSUNNY 88 75 65 SW10G20 30.04F HX 97 BEAUFORT MOSUNNY 88 76 67 SW14 30.04F HX 99 JACKSONVILLE PTSUNNY 90 75 61 SW9 30.02F HX 100 WILMINGTON PTSUNNY 87 76 69 CALM 30.03F HX 97

My area is about to get blasted it appears. Very heavy rains incoming from thunderstorms lined up near the coast. We also had some rain earlier this afternoon. Edit: I got ~~1.25”

New BoM forecast for ASO ONI: a bit cooler New run: -0.2 Old run: 0.0

Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 40A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 100 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...USE CAUTION AFTER THE STORM AS DEADLY HAZARDS REMAIN INCLUDING DOWNED POWERLINES AND CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING FROM IMPROPER GENERATOR USE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 95.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES A National Ocean Service station near the entrance to Galveston Bay (GNJT2) recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h), and a wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). Huntsville Municipal Airport (KUTS) in Texas measured a wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h), and Beaumont/Port Arthur Regional Airport (KBPT) recently reported a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h).

The cooling of the weeklies has been unexpectedly mainly nonexistent since late May! The June -5 SOI had a say in that. There has been a lingering shallow warm layer per ocean depth maps shown by @Stormchaserchuck1and @so_whats_happening(down to 75-100 meters) that has been stubborn due to overall warmth. I earlier thought RONI had a good shot at a dip to moderate to strong La Nina by autumn but as of now it is looking like moderate at the strongest with weak increasing in probability.

Relentless in Houston: Tropical Storm Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Corrected Header ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Houston Bush Intercontinental Airport (KIAH) recently reported a sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph (132 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 95.6W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake

These were 10AM CDT conditions in Houston with it having just been downgraded to a TS: HOUSTON BUSH HVY RAIN 74 73 97 SE55G82 29.25F VSB 1/4 TC 23 HOUSTON HOBBY LGT RAIN N/A N/A N/A S48G75 29.37R Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 95.7W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Houston Hobby Airport recently reported a wind gust of 84 mph (135 km/h), and Bush Intercontinental Airport recently reported a wind gust of 83 mph (134 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches) based on surface observations. ——————————- Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Despite being overland for about 6 hours, NWS radar and surface data indicate that the system has only slightly weakened, with a fairly well-defined eye present. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, as a compromise of Doppler wind velocities and surface observations. While Beryl is no longer a hurricane, there are still many life-threatening hazards associated with the storm, and these are detailed in the Key Messages below.

Just out from NHC (9AM CDT): Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 900 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE HOUSTON AREA... ...900 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Houston Hobby Airport (KHOU) recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 84 mph (135 km/h). A National Ocean Service (NOS) station at Morgans Point recently measured a sustained wind of 66 mph (106 km/h) and a gust to 77 mph (124 km/h). SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 95.7W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake

From NHC at 8AM CDT: A mesonet station (FRPT2) in Freeport recently reported a wind gust of 94 mph (151 km/h). A National Ocean Service (NOS) station (GNJT2) at the entrance to Galveston Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 73 mph (117 km/h) and a gust of 82 mph (131 km/h). A USGS gauge at Galveston Railroad Bridge recently reported an inundation of 3.6 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 95.8W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

A strengthening 1 is often worse than a weakening 2.

That’s a long lag (10-15 days)!

Also, per that chart, it was technically still in 2/3 but with very low amp during the storm.

8AM CDT: couple of cities HOUSTON HOBBY LGT RAIN 79 77 94 SE49G76 29.33 BAY CITY CLOUDY 73 73 98 W46G60 29.36R Just 2 hours earlier the pressure was 28.94 in Bay City and 29.49 in Houston Hobby (HH). Note the 77 dewpoint at HH allowing for flooding rainfall. Winds gusted to 76 there at 7:53 AM CDT!

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 200 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...BERYL NEARING THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST... ...200 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Beryl is nearing the middle Texas coast and is expected to make landfall within the next few hours. Conditions are deteriorating with dangerous storm surge and flash flooding. Sustained tropical-storm-force winds and hurricane-force wind gust have already been reported along the coast. A WeatherFlow station (XMBG) located at Matagorda Bay recently reported a sustained wind of 60 mph (96 km/h) and a gust of 75 mph (120 km/h). Another position update will be provided at 300 AM CDT (0800 UTC). SUMMARY OF 200 AM CDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 95.9W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly

Live stream from Sargent Beach:

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 38A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 100 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...BERYL STRENGTHENING AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST... ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING WITH DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 95.9W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 95.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected this morning. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to make landfall on the middle Texas coast during the next several hours. Beryl is forecast to turn northeastward and move farther inland over eastern Texas and Arkansas late Monday and Tuesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and coastal Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected before the center reaches the Texas coast. Significant weakening is expected after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A WeatherFlow station at Matagorda, Texas, recently reported sustained winds of 48 mph (77 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 mph (111 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

Apparently this was one of the reasons for upgrade to hurricane: These radar echoes were the reasoning for the upgrade of #Beryl. Winds up to 88 mph are being measured at about 10,000 feet aloft. That translates into surface winds of 75 mph, supporting a hurricane. https://x.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1810163899653648530 Also, the decision may have been influenced by this buoy report: NOAA buoy 42019 recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 mph (119 km/h). The buoy also reported a pressure of 992.2 mb (29.30 inches). In addition, the latest dropsonde posted above showed pressure dropped to 985 mb.

Beryl is now a hurricane. 11:00 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 Location: 27.7°N 95.7°W Moving: NNW at 10 mph Min pressure: 985 mb Max sustained: 75 mph

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 513 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TX AND INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALVIN, ANAHUAC, ANGLETON, BAY CITY, CLEVELAND, CLUTE, CONROE, DAYTON, DICKINSON, FIRST COLONY, FREEPORT, FRIENDSWOOD, GALVESTON, HOUSTON, LAKE JACKSON, LEAGUE CITY, LIBERTY, MISSION BEND, MISSOURI CITY, MONT BELVIEU, OLD RIVER-WINFREE, PALACIOS, PEARLAND, PECAN GROVE, ROSENBERG, STOWELL, SUGAR LAND, TEXAS CITY, THE WOODLANDS, AND WINNIE.

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Radar and satellite trends suggest Beryl is becoming better organized tonight. Deep convection has increased near the center, with new convective elements emerging around the northern and southern portions of the circulation. Tail Doppler Radar data from the NOAA aircraft suggest the radius of maximum wind has contracted a bit, and the vortex has become more vertically aligned. However, the eyewall is open to the west, where there is still some evidence of dry air in the circulation. The intensity was raised to 60 kt based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level wind data (66 kt at 700 mb), and the most recent aircraft pass through the northeast quadrant still supports the 60-kt intensity for this advisory. The minimum pressure has continued to slowly fall, with the latest dropsonde data supporting 986 mb. The environmental and oceanic conditions remain quite favorable for intensification while Beryl approaches the Texas coast overnight. The recent structural changes noted above are expected to allow Beryl to re-strengthen into a hurricane overnight, and the potential for significant intensification leading up to landfall is still indicated by some of the regional hurricane guidance, particularly the HWRF and HMON. At this point, time is the greatest limiting factor as the storm is less than 12 h from landfall. While the 12-h forecast point shows a 65-kt hurricane inland over Texas, the peak intensity is expected between now and the 12-h forecast point, and is thus not explicitly shown in this forecast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected while the system moves farther inland. The long-term motion of Beryl is north-northwestward at about 9 kt, but recent radar and aircraft fixes have shown a motion just east of due north. A northward motion overnight is expected to bring the center of Beryl inland along the middle Texas coast roughly between Matagorda Bay and Freeport early on Monday morning. The short-term NHC track forecast is just slightly east of the previous one. After landfall, Beryl is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough while transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 27.6N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 29.2N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 31.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1200Z 33.7N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0000Z 36.0N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 10/1200Z 38.4N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 40.4N 84.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart