GaWx

cyclonicwx.com hasn’t updated since the +1.62 of 11/8. However, WCS (which also is based on OISSTv2.1) has and after the 11/7 dip (its 11/7 is equivalent to cyclonicwx’s 11/8), WCS has warmed the last 3 days back up to +1.82 as of 11/10 (what will be cyclonicwx’s 11/11 once it updates) to just below its 11/1 high of +1.86:

The near record strat wind speeds for Nov 10-12 is old news per EPS runs the last 2+ weeks. For example, here’s the run from way back on Oct 25th…note the forecasted peak on Nov 11th: Also, there was a record strong SPV 1/1/23 and yet there was a minor SSW late Jan/early Feb, a major SSW mid Feb, and a further warming near the end of Feb.

Fwiw, the Euro Weeklies are warm in the E US through at least 12/25/23 and with no sign of an impending change fwiw.

And now today’s EPS update delays dropping the SPV strength (based on 60N winds) under climo until Dec 16th, which is two weeks after what the Nov 1st run showed and four days after what yesterday’s run showed. I’m wondering more and more if a potential bias toward an SPV weakening is in play. A mirage is often symptomatic of a bias. Is this just a mirage? Hopefully not and hopefully there is no SPV weakening bias:

Hopefully we won’t be hearing that this winter! Fingers crossed.

A super in 3.4, should it occur, would very likely mean a shift from EP to EP/CP for this winter.

Note that this was initialized on Nov 1. On that date it and the weeklies had (as per the top map) the EPS mean (thick blue line) first drop below climo (black line) ~Dec 2nd. Since then the EPS has kicked the can somewhat and the EPS mean in yesterday’s run doesn’t drop it below climo til Dec 12th with it stronger in early Dec. Hopefully it won’t keep delaying it.

In addition, don’t leave out Nino 4. Look at how warm Nino 4 (150W to 160E, 5N to 5S) is now with nearly all of it 29C+, a whopping 70% of it 30C+, and a small part of the W portion (near Dateline) even getting to 31C+! The weighted average is clearly over 30C (likely ~30.1 to possibly as high as 30.2). I continue to think this is headed to a hybrid (EP/CP) Nino by winter. There’s too much warming in 3.4 and 4 in addition to 3 for it to remain EP too much longer imho.

TAO has warmed considerably since Oct., and this is the warmest I can recall this Nino. This is the first time this Nino I remember seeing +3.0C anywhere on this map. (Keep in mind this map is to the W of Nino 1+2.) It is as far west as ~108W (centered near 2S), which is within the E portion of Nino 3. The +2.5C anomaly now gets well into the E portion of Nino 3.4 (to ~138W). The +2.0C gets as far W as ~172W, which is just past Nino 3.4 and well into Nino 4. So, Nino 3, 3.4, and 4 all look about the warmest on TAO yet this season: Nov 5-9: +3.0 to 108W, +2.5 to 138W, +2.0 to 172W Oct 1-31: No +3.0, +2.5 only to 125W, +2.0 only to 150W:

I’m not trying to rip TAO at all. I love the TAO site and the ability to graph it with so many options. It is fantastic and I love your animations. Please keep them coming! I’m not good with that type of thing and thus really appreciate you posting them. And I like both the CPC OHC chart and the CPC monthly table. I like it all. When I say they’re not in sync, I’m not saying that to rip any of the datasets. Im just noting it for discussion purposes as we try to figure out whether or not the OHC top is in using the various datasets. I did email someone with NOAA asking if the monthly table is based on 5N to 5S. I’ll post about it if I get an answer.

Aug 25th looks a little warmer than June 21st. However, I still have Nov 3rd a decent amount warmer than Aug 25th with most of the W half warmer (some much warmer) and a smaller area colder (mainly eastern 25% within the upper 100 m). Yeah, I realize that the CPC OHC chart is a bit warmer in late Aug vs 11/3 (+1.25 vs just under +1.20). The comparisons for those two dates for NOAA (warmer) vs TAO (cooler imho) aren’t in sync and you even said there’s no reason the two different datasets have to be in sync.

Thanks. Nice! I was trying to do that but couldn’t figure out how. Looking closely at the comparison again, practically the entire volume from 180 to 125W is warmer on Nov 3rd vs June 21st. In much of this volume, it is 1C warmer with a large portion of the volume between 135W and 160W and 100-175m deep 2+ C warmer. That adds up to a lot of water that’s much warmer. OTOH, most of 100-125W between 50m and 125m is colder vs June 21st with it as much as 3.5 colder near 100W within 60-90 m of depth. So, indeed that E water in a portion of the upper depths is colder with some much colder. But that colder volume is <10% of all of the water vs ~65% (~7 times as much water) that is warmer. So, despite some of the colder anomalies being up to 3.5 colder vs the warmer being no warmer than 2.5 warmer, it isn’t nearly enough to overcome the warmer water. That’s why I feel Nov 3rd is overall significantly warmer than June 21st on TAO.

It does but I am sensing that the EPS is doing some can kicking when you consider the timing. For example, the runs from Oct 25th through Nov 2nd all had the EPS mean first go below climo between 11/30 and 12/4. Since then, it has gotten later and on today’s run it occurs on 12/12. So, I’m being cautious about this to make sure this isn’t due to a bias.

Regarding the bolded: Because the CPC tabular values are based on 1981-2010 and not the warmer 1991-2020 for its base, the current 100W-180 (down to 300m) equivalent OHC anomaly is more than likely now in or near the +1.3 to +1.35 range. I’m saying this because you’re referring to the +1.7 to +2.0 range back at this time in 2015, which is what the monthly table has based on 1981-2010.

More to the above. I think I just figured out why the monthly tabular values have been coming in warmer than the graph suggests and thus it may not be due to differing latitude domains: - The graph uses 1991-2020 as a base - The table uses 1981-2010 as a base. - Thus, since 1991-2020 OHC averages should be warmer than 1981-2010, the anomalies for El Niño OHCs using a 1981-2010 base should be warmer than those using a 1991-2020 base. - Thus, that may explain why the tabular values for anomalies have been mainly higher than that suggested by the graph. - Thus, I expect most of the upcoming tabular monthly OHC anomalies to come in warmer than the OHC graph suggests (perhaps mainly in the 0.05 to 0.20 C range). -I still want to find out what the latitude domain is for the table.

I looked again and this time I got the answer regarding the CPC OHC time series graph. It is 5N to 5S per this: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf But, I still don’t know the answer for the very important CPC monthly OHC table. Whereas one might reasonably bet that it would also be 5N to 5S since it also from CPC, I’m not assuming that. One reason is that the tabular OHC monthlies have been coming in higher in most months in 2023 vs what the OHC time series graph has been suggesting: Consider, for example, June. The table has it way up at +1.40. But one can clearly see that the graph (see below) is WAY lower as its highest in June is only ~+1.35 (midmonth) and it falls to under +1.15 at the end. So, per the graph, it is ~+1.25. Now look at April. The table has it at +1.19. But the graph only barely approaches +1.19 around April 20th. The other days are between that and +0.90. Thus, the graph is implying that April OHC was only +1.05 at most. So, for both April and June, the table is .~0.15 warmer than the graph suggests. That tells me that the table MIGHT not be based on 5N to 5S like is the case for the graph: Monthly OHC: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

This is a great question/point and possibly could cause discrepancies between sources. Whereas TAO clearly states it looks at 2N to 2S, I just looked thoroughly and I couldn’t find what either the CPC monthly OHC table or the CPC OHC time series use for the latitude domain. They really should state that. IF they use 5N to 5S, I’d think their OHC levels would be cooler than that for 2N to 2S based on my assumption that like the surface the most intense anomalies tend to be right at the equator. But regardless, the OHC based on 2N to 2S (100W to 180, 0 to 300m deep) per TAO appears to me to be near or at its warmest yet this Nino. If so, might 5N to 5S also be at its warmest had TAO measured it? I’d think that would be a reasonable possibility.

So, we seem to agree that TAO and CPC aren’t in sync. Looking at the 5 day periods you just posted in the portion down to 300m (which is the portion that both the monthly NOAA table and the time series graph both pertain to), Oct 30-Nov 3 is overall warmer than June 17-21. The only portion that is cooler is 100-120W. Here’s the latest, Nov 4-8. Based on eyeballing estimates, I don’t see how the weighted average of 100-180W, 0-300 m (all of this graph except the leftmost 20 degrees) isn’t at least close to +1.50 per TAO and likely about the warmest yet this El Niño per TAO: So, if TAO is now at about its warmest for this Nino, is the true OHC now at its warmest this Nino? Shouldn’t that be considered as a realistic possibility? I assume TAO data is credible.

I’ll come back to comparisons to past El Niños later. But I’m first asking you to compare Nov 3-7 of 2023 to June of 2023, which is what I showed in my post done ~45 minutes ago. The Nov 3-7 depth chart showing 100W to 180 from 0 to 300m is significantly warmer overall than that for June. The only portion that was cooler on the Nov 3-7 is 100-120W in the uppermost 125m, which is only ~10% of the volume. ~70% of the volume is warmer on Nov 3-7. The other ~20% is about the same. How could the Nov 3-7th depth be so much warmer than June when June is by a good margin the warmest month of 2023 to date per the OHC time series graph? They don’t appear to be in synch, which is the point I’m making.

I don’t think you’re seeing what I’m seeing. I would post a gif animation of the two, but it is way too fast when I do it. Do you know how to slow down a gif animation from IPhone gallery still images?

I’ll come back to that. But please address what I just posted, which clearly shows that Nov 3-7th of 2023 is warmer than June 1-30 of 2023 on the depth charts. That tells me that there’s a disconnect. Do you see what I’m saying?

There appears to be a disconnect between these TAO/Triton depth graphs and the time series OHC graph. Otherwise, the Nov 3-7 averaged OHC would now be significantly warmer than the June OHC, which per the time series OHC is the warmest full month so far. Compare the two depth charts below. Compared to June, the only portion of 100W-180 on Nov 3-7 that is cooler is 100-120W from 0 to 125m depth. Otherwise, 120W-180 from 0 to 300m is significantly warmer on Nov 3-7 vs June. Nov 3-7th: June 1-30:

Below is the latest, the 5 day average ending on 11/7/23 with it cropped to only go down to 300m. Looking at 100-180W (most of this) and assuming this is based on the same data that the daily graph of 100-180W OHC uses, it appears to me that there’s a good shot at a new high on the graph of this Nino within the next few weeks. I wouldn’t all be shocked if +1.50 is reached. The current high is near +1.35 set in mid June. *Edited for typo as it is 5 days ending on 11/7

About normal after accelerating during the last few days of Oct.

I hope Nino 3.4 warms a few tenths during the next couple of weeks without Nino 3 warming as much so as to move the Nino a little bit toward/away from CP/EP. The OHC has been steadily warming in recent weeks. So, that may give it an extra boost.