GaWx

Just like for all runs before, 12Z UK is again staying OTS from US with this run not as close to FL on its closest approach (175 miles offshore) vs last few runs: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 77.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 27.09.2025 0 22.0N 77.3W 1007 28 0000UTC 28.09.2025 12 21.3N 77.3W 1006 26 1200UTC 28.09.2025 24 23.4N 77.1W 1005 34 0000UTC 29.09.2025 36 24.7N 77.1W 1003 30 1200UTC 29.09.2025 48 26.2N 77.1W 1003 43 0000UTC 30.09.2025 60 27.5N 77.5W 1000 39 1200UTC 30.09.2025 72 28.3N 76.6W 997 35 0000UTC 01.10.2025 84 28.6N 74.6W 994 39 1200UTC 01.10.2025 96 34.6N 69.7W 977 69 0000UTC 02.10.2025 108 CEASED TRACKING —————— *Edit: Note the initialization as of 12Z at 22.0N, 77.3W: how is that compared to where it really was at 8AM?

12Z Icon stays OTS from US

The last frame of 6Z Euro has this stop its ENE movement and then suddenly drift back due W fwiw as Humberto accelerates away and the upper high builds enough to its N to change the steering. Although this is the only major op doing this, 40% of the 6Z EPS do not escape and most of those stall not too far offshore and then attain a W component of motion.

0Z Euro stays away from the US.

0Z CMC stays OTS unlike 12Z, which looped back to NC So far, all OTS with only Euro left

0Z: Icon stays OTS as has been case every run GFS stays OTS 2nd run in a row JMA goes out only 72 but implies it would again get pulled into Humberto and stay OTS UKMET stays OTS as (like the Icon) has been the case every run: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 23.5N 77.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 28.09.2025 36 23.5N 77.3W 1004 38 0000UTC 29.09.2025 48 25.0N 77.5W 1002 38 1200UTC 29.09.2025 60 26.5N 78.0W 1001 38 0000UTC 30.09.2025 72 28.1N 78.3W 998 43 1200UTC 30.09.2025 84 28.3N 78.5W 995 42 0000UTC 01.10.2025 96 27.6N 76.9W 993 38 1200UTC 01.10.2025 108 27.4N 74.6W 991 45 0000UTC 02.10.2025 120 27.8N 71.6W 989 45 1200UTC 02.10.2025 132 28.3N 68.0W 987 48 0000UTC 03.10.2025 144 28.8N 63.5W 989 66 1200UTC 03.10.2025 156 29.8N 59.3W 994 54 0000UTC 04.10.2025 168 30.3N 56.7W 997 41 ——————— CMC next

0Z GFS also likely not going to hit the US based on 78 but we’ll see.

0Z Icon is again OTS.

18Z Icon remained OTS. If this ends up not hitting the US, keep in mind that both the Icon and UKMET haven’t had even one run so far with anything even that close to a landfall. Those two models were the best with Ian by the way.

“Hilton Head landfall Thursday morning on euro” way out at hour 144 or so with devastating amounts of rainfall in SC. Then drifts S to near SAV.

Then per other sources it stalls just offshore for 24+ hours

12Z Euro H5 114 hits CHS:

It appears that way. We’ll see whether the run gets going again as it’s been stuck at hour 78 for nearly 15 minutes

12Z Euro to 78 looks similar to 0Z at 90

Other 12Z: Icon goes OTS again JMA hints at OTS but not sure since only to 72 UKMET goes OTS again like the Icon although it goes further NW than prior runs before going OTS NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 23.3N 76.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 28.09.2025 48 24.2N 76.7W 1007 33 0000UTC 29.09.2025 60 25.2N 77.4W 1004 34 1200UTC 29.09.2025 72 26.7N 77.8W 1003 38 0000UTC 30.09.2025 84 28.2N 77.6W 1001 36 1200UTC 30.09.2025 96 28.9N 78.5W 996 42 0000UTC 01.10.2025 108 28.7N 77.8W 994 40 1200UTC 01.10.2025 120 28.5N 76.6W 992 38 0000UTC 02.10.2025 132 28.7N 74.3W 991 46 1200UTC 02.10.2025 144 28.9N 72.2W 991 54 0000UTC 03.10.2025 156 28.7N 69.6W 992 63 1200UTC 03.10.2025 168 28.6N 68.4W 995 52

Hopefully Humberto overachieving increases the chance that 94L will be more influenced by it in a way that helps the SE US.

0Z EPS: 29 of 50 hit SE US with ~10-11 as hurricanes Night night!

0Z GEFS: 14 of 30 members with SE US landfall with one of those 14 a hurricane

0Z Euro stalls for 48 hours just offshore SC/GA before turning back WNW into Beaufort, SC and not til Thu night!

0Z Euro much different vs prior Euros

0Z: So far, similar to 12Z with GFS hitting Myrtle Beach while Icon, CMC, and UKMET again all Fujiwara 94L safely OTS JMA only goes out to 72 at 0Z…so, can’t tell much Euro is next —————- 0Z UKMET: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 22.5N 76.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 28.09.2025 48 22.5N 76.7W 1004 39 1200UTC 28.09.2025 60 24.8N 76.1W 1003 41 0000UTC 29.09.2025 72 25.6N 76.6W 1000 42 1200UTC 29.09.2025 84 26.5N 77.1W 999 40 0000UTC 30.09.2025 96 27.3N 77.3W 997 43 1200UTC 30.09.2025 108 27.3N 77.3W 995 43 0000UTC 01.10.2025 120 27.1N 75.4W 992 44 1200UTC 01.10.2025 132 27.3N 73.5W 989 44 0000UTC 02.10.2025 144 28.8N 70.0W 984 52 1200UTC 02.10.2025 156 30.8N 65.1W 979 69 0000UTC 03.10.2025 168 34.6N 57.8W 972 76

The chances of this being a cat 4 H are very low as of now even with favorable MJO phase 2 being forecasted. The bigger risk as it appears now is the catastrophic flooding risk from a very slow moving storm, even if it were to landfall as just a TS. TS Chantal caused major flooding from record 24 hour rainfall in parts of NC.

Per WxBell (may be different from others like TT): -Of the 18Z 30 GEFS/50 EPS members, I count ~25% that bring a lowest SLP of <1000 mb onto the E coast, but I see no lowest SLP <990 mb on the GEFS on land. -There do appear to be 7 EPS members that are hurricanes/<990 mb hitting.

That’s what I meant when I mentioned those scenarios. It appears the best chance for a Fujiwara to do that is for Humberto to be at a higher latitude than 94L. This is based on viewing 100s of ensemble members from different runs along with operationals.

The best bet for the SE to avoid a hit and the potential flooding catastrophe would be if 94L were to move away from there more slowly than the model consensus and let Humberto get to a higher latitude than it. Also, the same would probably be the case if Humberto were to move more quickly. Then hopefully Humberto would pull 94L away.