Buddy1987

Eh nothing else to do might as well. Blue Ridge is right tho def trending toward GFS with the evolution.

Now that I look at the axis of it from 6z def more GFS like. Just the strength of the vort imo is whats going to determine what downstream looks like.

Then at 72 not nearly as sharp with the vort.

Man to be honest with you that is far out still, as we need to nail down the evolution and the timing of this system. Once we get to that point we can start to incorporate favorable jet dynamics and frontogenesis etc.. but long story short if it is going to undergo 11mb drop in 12 hrs, as depicted by the 6z GFS, then so long as it doesnt run too far inland the cold air can be aided by these factors on the west side of the storm. Looking forward to this talk as we get closer. Taken at face value the GFS is a little too wrapped up for my liking if you are a Carolina guy but then again the GFS has been the most aggressive so do not want to get way ahead of the game here.

Jan 2000 had a phasing of the northern/southern streams, so a n/s clipper was involved.

It’s like hybrid A/B at least on the depiction of the GFS, as it wants to transfer off SC coast which would then void the Miller A talk. Unique storm for sure.

Also 4mb stronger with that HP over Quebec at 1045. That’s a stout bad boy

Dang it sniped by buckeye haha

Longgggg range Nam at 72 actually has a more consolidated vort out west just entering eastern most Montana, comparatively to 6z GFS. Placement wise they are relatively very close to one another.

I get that from a fear standpoint to the public but I mean synoptically and upstairs very similar.

Eric Webb is putting good stuff out too. March 1980 is another good one. https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview

Anybody but Alabama! I think as of right now NE GA looks to be in for a shellacking. Time will tell my friend

Can anyone answer as to whether or not RAOB sites have improved for model data purposes out in sparse regions of Canada to help us with the vort inbound and timing purposes?

Jan 25th, 2000 closest thing I could find to this potential one. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2000_North_American_blizzard

Wow looking at that the GEFS strongly disagrees with the OP

Yea I was thinking the same to myself. A low traveling inland through Fayetville and up west of Richmond into Chesterfield area would be very difficult for a lot to remain all snow as the dominant type. Still think the GFS is too amped but it doubled down its position from 0z and also has others joining its radical thinking

@burgertimebeen following the Icon on this. It’s the model that digs the least just fyi. 0z Canadian made a huge jump toward the GFS. Curious to see what the 6z did but I don’t have access to that. I can’t remember the last time a Manitoba mauler did this. Been a long time

Difference that’s noticeable is the gfs is wanting to go neutral to almost negative tilt with the system. As it traverses over panhandle region. Canadian is super close with its own mini bowling ball. What an interesting twist tonight. Looking forward to waking up tomorrow morning and sipping on some coffee for the 6z runs.

Boy the 0z Canadian is REALLY trying as well to make this super interesting looking at 5h around the 114hr mark. Not nearly aggressive as the gfs but nonetheless another scenario to look at to where CLT/Raleigh and SC are pummeled

I will defer on this but I did state earlier that the GFS has a known bias to dig significantly more than other models with northern stream systems. It would be amazing to have that run verify for a lot of us but in all reality my gut has been telling me a 3-6” type event for someone in the sub forum would be most likely at this juncture. Now trying to predict the timing is nearly impossible until maybe 12z Wednesday or even into 0z Thursday. These vorts right now are like trying to catch a school of fish while your waist deep with no net.

TRASH with reasonings listed above. It’s verification scores are putrid.

Ukie has been trash as of late. Didn’t even have the I95 snowstorm precip intensity until like 48 hrs before storm.

Perks of being on the border of Mid Atlantic/Southeast crew line.. and I can also say being a proud member of American Weather and Eastern US weather since the early 2000’s qualifies me

Man.. speechless. 10mb drop in a 12 hr panel.

I couldn’t give enough laughing faces that’s hilarious. What a freakin bomb. NC nuked off the planet