beavis1729

Baum defended the pre-Christmas storm, and it sent me over the edge. Sorry Baum - not personal of course. You just happened to make the post that sums up the issue . I constantly see people on this forum saying that this winter (and actually every winter after 2014-15) were just a fact of life and/or “just a part of our climo”. But that doesn’t make it better. Why are we trying to rationalize how bad it is? It’s bad enough that the general public does this, but we shouldn’t do this here. What’s the point of commiserating with like-minded people? I never said we need feet of snow and constant subzero temps like in Quebec. But lakes and ponds should be frozen and there should be snow on the ground, without anxiety of when the melt will happen. But in our area, the melt is always around the corner. Let’s just admit this, and drown our sorrows together. It’s so exhausting, but I need to stay here due to family and job. When you love something and have other issues and stress going on, it’s hard to balance it all 24/7. Every so often, I need to vent. And, of course, no “normal” warm weather lovers can relate…which is why I’m here.

Yep…although I’m actually surprised that their record isn’t higher. I guess it’s because Bismarck has a pretty dry climate, and despite the overall cold they occasionally get chinooks that melt the snow…and even a lot of sun and wind over time can reduce the snow cover (all else being equal). They probably have constant snow cover a lot…but mainly in the 4-10” range as opposed to 12”+.

Not directed at you…but why are people’s expectations so low in our subforum? Even for the locations that got a bit more than 1-3” in the pre-Christmas storm, the snow melted by New Years. So, it was yet another disappointment for all. Yes, we had a little bit of snow and short lived blizzard conditions in some areas…but it’s winter. Yes, it was cold…but it’s winter. Yes, we had a White Christmas. That’s good, but it’s what winter should be - and it’s not like we had an exceptional December before then. So, having a White Christmas unfortunately ended up only being a consolation prize amid a sea of crap. And, now, even after a week of decent cold which finally froze the lakes and ponds, it will all be undone in 3 days…and you’ll start seeing puddles on the lakes and dirty melting snow…yet again. Why can’t we just admit this, together? There’s no need to protect and defend our horrible climo. Many of us are clearly frustrated by yet another horrendous winter - and we have every right to be. Why do so many people keep insisting on polishing turds, and fighting back? Let’s just accept it. We need to stop comparing things to climo - there are certain absolute standards for what winter should be. When Hoosier wakes up every morning over the last 60 days and never sees the grass covered with snow AT ALL, it means our climo is beyond horrible. Of course this extreme form of crap doesn’t happen every year…but the fact that it can even happen at all is horrendous. Even if grass showed on 30 of these 60 days, it would be bad. But zero days - it’s beyond comprehension. We need to let people call things what they are, and stop sugar coating. The same thing is true out East this year - and they have every right to be frustrated like we do. You’d think we could all agree on this and drown our sorrows and commiserate together on this…but yet people keep fighting back and defending. Our bar is so low these days, that it’s underground. We don’t deserve this. Let’s just be ok with saying that we all love winter in different ways…and it sucks when we don’t get to experience it. The other 9 months can be whatever it wants to be…but DJF should be sacred. There - I said it.

See below: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1258 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move south of the region today. A powerful arctic cold front will cross the area Friday morning. Frigid arctic high pressure will build in from the west Friday into Saturday. A warm front will lift across the area Sunday. Weak low pressure will track north of the area Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 1230pm update... The Blizzard Warning was issued in response to the blowing snow and whiteout threat in the warned area. Snow accumulations will be an inch or less. The blowing snow threat will be in open terrain where whiteouts are most likely to affect motorists. Discussions with state and county authorities involved in public safety this week, and after similar events in past years, have favored this stronger alert/messaging. The arctic front arrives later tonight with plunging temperatures, blowing snow and dangerous wind chills. The front crosses after midnight and is expected to be exiting the state by 4am. Temperatures plummet with the frontal passage and continue to fall relentlessly into Friday night. Winds kick up immediately with frontal passage with gusts reaching the 35 to 45 mph range. Blowing snow will start with the frontal passage and continue all day and into Friday night. The worst will be in Aroostook County where the Blizzard Warning was issued due to the blowing snow/ground blizzard threat in open terrain. Wind chills drop steadily all day into the evening, reaching below minus 50F by late afternoon in the Saint John Valley and dropping towards minus 45F at Bangor by late evening. Interestingly, using CIPS analogs, a top analog is the Jan 14, 1988 event when Caribou last experienced a wind chill of less than minus 50F. The lowest recorded wind chill at Caribou was minus 58.6F in 1951.

It will be a bit chilly over the next couple of days at Mount Washington NH. 850 temps near -40C. Today Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 9. Wind chill values as low as -23. Very windy, with a west wind 40 to 45 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Tonight Snow showers likely, mainly between midnight and 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -27. Wind chill values as low as -53. Very windy, with a west wind 55 to 60 mph increasing to 65 to 70 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Mostly sunny and cold, with a temperature falling to around -37 by 5pm. Very windy, with a northwest wind around 70 mph, with gusts as high as 90 mph. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -38. Wind chill values as low as -91. Very windy, with a northwest wind 70 to 75 mph increasing to 80 to 85 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 105 mph.

Yeah, I've been tracking that over the past couple of days. When was the last time we've seen a 462 dm thickness anywhere on a NA map, and a 468 dm thickness in the US? I know we often see very intense short-lived cold outbreaks here (late January 2019 is Exhibit A - ugh). But what will happen in New England is crazy - basically 36 hours of intense cold, then an incredibly quick warm-up to normal+ as if it never happened.

Thanks for responding, as always. I don't mean underperformed relative to NWS forecasts - I just mean underperformed relative to what should have happened given the situation and time of year. And, the fact that cloud cover really wasn't an issue makes it even worse. Unfortunately UHI always kills things, even in the suburbs. We just don't radiate well unless there is a very deep snowpack and the high is in an absolutely perfect place...and, even then, it's not always guaranteed. I thought we'd easily hit -8 to -10 imby, but we only dropped to -5. Many people here seem to care about forecasts...and obviously you need to at the NWS. But I only care about outcomes. I'd love nothing more than a forecast of 2" of snow to go horribly wrong, and we end up with 10". After looking into this further, the airmass itself wasn't really that impressive - thicknesses were only around 520. So, my expectations may have been a bit too high for this morning. I just hoped we were set up for an optimal starry night with some crazy temp drops - but it just didn't happen. Our MSN poster had a low of -17, with some -20s nearby...but nothing close to that here. That's what I'm referring to. Dare I bring up the 1/31/2019 debacle at ORD...4 years ago today.

Unfortunately, the cold actually underperformed in N IL by roughly 3-5 degrees, likely due to UHI and a bit of unexpected cloud cover. ORD only hit -1, and it was -5 here. -9 in DKB and -11 at RFD. I shouldn’t even need to say this since it should be a given…but, yes, all of these areas have snow cover.

Go for it - it's completely justified.

I hear you, and appreciate your response. The main reason I post on here is for the commiseration with fellow winter lovers...not so much the forecast details. In a society where cold and snow lovers are essentially banished, I figured a forum like this is a good place to chat with like-minded individuals. But I guess that's only true up to a point. It's like a die-hard Cubs fan who pines for a World Series - you drown your sorrows with fellow Cubs fans and complain/hope each year will be better than the last, even though you have no control...and then the magic happened after 108 years. And I do immensely respect what you and the others do at the NWS. Deploying science and good communication skills to protect the public - a very noble combination. When I was finishing up my meteorology degree at NIU in 1995, I volunteered at LOT that summer...which is when the insane heat wave occurred. I had the humble opportunity to broadcast over NOAA weather radio - kind of a weenie and nerdy thing I guess, but it was one of my most enjoyable summers. I also worked construction outdoors that summer - so being in the comfortable AC in the Romeoville office felt good too. I remember Ratzer and Merzlock were there - I assume they've retired.

It’s not black and white - it’s a balance. Just seems strange that 3.5 inches “falls” continuously over 12 hours (not just in the first 2-3 hours), but the depth after those same 12 hours is only 2”. Part of the frustration is our climo. If ORD’s average seasonal snowfall is only 37” even with this way of measuring, it only feels like 30-35” actually fell when you look at the depth after it snows. Example - If we receive 15” of snow in December, there should be at least 10” on the ground at the end of the month. Of course there is some melting and compaction…but the depth should build up throughout the winter. We don’t live in Dallas. It’s so hard to maintain a clean snowpack here…and today just sent me over the edge because we finally get the first decent snow of the season…but we can’t even maintain snow cover while the snow is still falling! I’d even be upset if 3.5” dropped to a 2” depth within 5 days after the snow ended…but what happened today is just ridiculous. It’s January, not April. If snow can’t manage to stay on the ground *while it’s actually falling*…then, yes, that should be considered when determining how much snow is recorded in the books. It’s just a rant from a frustrated weenie - not a big deal. Just ******* tired of dreadful winters over and over again. I grew up in the 70s and 80s - that is what I’m used to.

This seems inflated, a result of IMO poor standard operating procedure for snowfall measurements. Should be every 12 hours, not 6. If snow depth is down to 2” within basically 12 hours of an event starting, how can a reasonable person say that 3.5” actually fell? If the snow compacts/melts 24 hours after the event ends, that’s another thing. But during the event…it just doesn’t pass the reasonability test. Again, I’m not questioning the measurer - just the SOP. When one looks at the historical records after today’s snowfall, it will only look like a slightly below normal snowfall month through 1/25. But that’s ridiculous, because it has hardly snowed in January and has been extremely mild. The worst January ever, but it won’t look that bad in the historical records. When situations like that can be allowed to happen, it should cause the experts to revisit the measuring methodology.

Some serious cold in Canada on the 18z GFS around Day 8. It's impressive enough to see -40 temps, but there's a decent area of -45 to -50 showing up...with even one pixel in NE Alberta at -55. Of course this is far out and 2m temps aren't exactly modeled well in general...but you don't see a map like this very often. The extremely rare 468 thickness contour shows up, and it covers a fairly respectable area. Even 474 is extremely impressive. Hopefully we'll get to track a real-deal arctic outbreak soon...but of course the question is whether this arctic air will drop south. At a minimum, seems like a nice temp gradient will set up. If a big storm results, it should be able to pull the cold air down.

I was in West Yellowstone in early June, 5 years ago. It’s so beautiful there. Even with the long days during that time of year, it was around 30 in the morning and 60s in the afternoon. They have great radiational cooling conditions. All-time record low is -66.

It's difficult to have any hope given how ***************** this winter has been...but I think there's a small glimmer on the map above. Yes, the mean SLP is too far SE for here...but it's a 1008 mb mean. Many of the stronger solutions have SLPs in the mid 990s...which in theory would pull it further NW if it ends up being a stronger storm.

Glad to have someone else on board the train.

Correct. Thank you for confirming via yet another data point how horrible our climo is - mission accomplished.

Bring it on - then of course I would drive everyone crazy and they’ll ban me.

Maybe it's the +AMO cycle (which should be ending soon after nearly 30 years), and lack of +PNA. We need the "blob" (warm water by Alaska) to appear again, like in 2013-14 and 2014-15.

Thanks for digging up the numbers...and the RFD observing site hasn't changed locations materially (as far as I'm aware). So, in the old days, either RFD observers simply reported snowfall totals based on the depth after settling/compaction (resulting in lower snowfall totals vs. today's measuring guidelines)...or RFD's snow climo is incredibly horrendous and this is one of the most shocking data points I've ever seen on this board. If it's the latter, then I really don't know what to say. It would be one more in an extremely long list of data points which shows how horrible winter climo is in N IL. How can RFD only average 22.8" of snow over a 30-year period?? Hell, even one year of 22.8" is unacceptable. If this is really true and we're eventually going to regress to the mean, then there's no point in hoping for sustained winter in these parts. And I thought 40" per season was bad...

Possibly for some lake enhanced events…but, overall, I think downtown (either due to melting on contact due to the urban jungle or marine influence early in the season) has materially less snow than ORD throughout the historical record. And I know many of us are on a short fuse these days. Look at the AmWx forum overall, it’s a disaster. Boston, NYC, PHL, and DC have had zero snow all season. I know that’s not unprecedented in DC…but this is getting pretty ridiculous for all locations east of the Mississippi and south of 45N. Sure, Buffalo and Watertown are exceptions…but their rapid melting following two large events is sad in its own way.

I clearly said that "I'm not suggesting that today's measurements are purposely overinflated". I'm just saying it was different 50-100 years ago. Why is that so controversial? People use stats in misleading ways all the time, whether intentionally or not. Measurements of average Chicago snowfall over the years have been distorted by changes in measuring techniques (probably didn't used to measure every 6 hours or be extremely precise on minor dustings) and changes in location...which suggests that the low-snowfall winters in the early-mid 20th century would have probably had higher totals if they were measured at ORD and using today's measuring techniques. It's not a difficult concept or thought process, and it's not intended to personally insult anyone. It's simply something for people to keep in mind when throwing numbers around.

To add some non-DC area perspective, if helpful: Chicago and Milwaukee have also not really had a winter so far. Chicago's greatest depth has been 1", and only for a few days during the brief pre-Christmas arctic outbreak. Milwaukee has been similar, even as their depth hit 2" briefly. Both have had essentially no snow since Christmas. NYC and Boston haven't had any snow at all. East of the Rockies and south of 45N, it has been absolutely horrendous...with no discernable end in sight.

While I’m not suggesting that today’s snow measurements are purposely overinflated, I highly suspect that an “event” like this 50+ years ago would have gone down in the books as a T. What I’m getting at is that the general increase in 30-year normal snow over the decades that you and Josh noted in the other thread is probably not a true increase at all. It’s driven by changes in measuring techniques. And, for Chicago in particular, the first half (at least) of our period of record was in downtown Chicago. In other words, the increase in 30-year snowfall over the decades is driven in part by the change in the official site location. UHI trends are one thing…but it’s hard to compare apples to apples when the observing site moves over time.

Yeah...which is just one more item to add to the mounting pile of evidence that illustrates how bad our climo is. I think it just seems worse this year because of the compounding effect of crappy Decembers over and over again for the past several years. We've had essentially no snow cover so far this season. Sure, we had 1" on the ground for a few days before Christmas...but is the bar really that low now? I'm thinking back to December 2000. Yes, I admit that was a good month for snow and cold...but, honestly, that's more like what winter should be. Not saying I expect every December to be like 2000...but they should be closer to 2000 than the crap we've endured recently. The problem with our climo is that, whenever we get a decent winter month, you know you'll probably not see it again for a very long time. Good (not necessarily great) months need to be more common. P.S. I refuse to admit or accept that Chicago's average December snowfall is less than 10". No matter what the stats say, I'm going with 10"...which is bad enough already. Every decade when the 30-year normals are updated, the average annual snowfall goes down. It used to be over 40", now it's down to 37" (?).