Windspeed
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Everything posted by Windspeed
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I wonder if Lan will be intercepted by reconnaissance aircraft. Last year, there were several publications that members from Nagoya University and the Meteorogical Research Institute were going to conduct missions into powerful typhoons beginning this year. Granted, the 2017 WPAC season has been slow. But if ever there was a typhoon to start data gathering missions, especially considering the threat to Japan, you would think Lan would be it. https://weather.com/news/weather/news/typhoon-observation-western-pacific-recon-aircraft It would be awesome to have a dropsonde in this big powerful eyewall. Sometimes Dvorak underestimates large eyewalls. I recall Irma this year in the Atlantic was underestimated versus some of the recon measurements, though that hurricane was imbedded in a higher background pressure regime. Edit: Well I just stumbled across this info on another board. They did not include any obs but confirms the flight occurred. Article is Japanese, here is the Google translation: https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20171020-00173308-nbnv-sctch -
I agree that it is a little concerning that both majors have the core coming ashore left of Tokyo and Yokohama. That does increase right front surge potential for Tokyo Bay. But they do have a system of sea walls and dikes to handle tsunamis and surge, though the upper west portion of the bay could have issues if it surpasses 2-3 meters. It would still cause a lot of damage but hopefully not result in casualties. Worst cast would be the right side of the core running directly up the bay. The track would need to be exactly postioned and Lan has that potential. Still, even 40 hrs out, it could shift a bit. Let's see what 24 more hrs of modeling brings with interaction of the southwesterly flow at that positon. Hopefully the JMA is alerting the government and getting people in close promixity to the bay shoreline / water front aware.
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I agree this has the potential to be a big hit for Japan. Though Lan won't hold this intensity, the fast movement will mitigate rapid weakening. This very well could be an upper end Cat 3 landfall for populated areas.
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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.1 / 941.1mb/117.4kt At this rate, it will be Super Typhoon Lan by 00z.
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Lan is rapidly intensifying. ADT CI# is 112 kts and rising fast. Colder tops and the CDO is expanding NW of the 50nm wide eye now, which has warmed significantly the past few hours. Still 24-36 hrs of low-to-moderate shear but with an ever increasing 200mb poleward jet steak. The diameter of the eye will slowly contract some and I suspect ADT will hit 130 kts or more before Lan begins to weaken. JTCW will probably re-up the intensity forecast some. This is a massive-sized core, but perhaps a Super Typhoon is still a possibilty afterall. Edit: Good grief, to be so short, this typhoon's name is plaguing me. I keep hitting the freakin' m key!
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Yeah, Lam likely matures into a large and powerful typhoon with a big stable eye over the next 24-36 hrs.
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You nailed it. That has been the issue. Lam developed as multiple surface circulations formed within a large surface trough. Over the past week, surface vorts have been competing within the large gyre. When you have that scenario, deep convection within one vort can suppress convection or create subsidence that affects parts of the overall core structure. However, it looks like a deep band is getting established and a dominate vortex will take over. The SSTs are plenty warm up to southern Japan. It may not reach Super Typhoon status, but I think it will definitly be a Cat 3/4 before the the typhoon nears Japan. Perhaps holds intensity enough to landfall as a 3.
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This would be the place.
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Looks like the ERC occurred in best case scenario with landfall.
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I think they might be a little too north in their forecast track. Of course it could gain a more WNW motion between now and landfall, but it really looks to be bullseyeing the mouth of the Palanan River.
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The forecasted location of landfall receives more severe landfalling cyclones than any place on Earth. That combined with the mountainous terrain of the region probably has a lot to do with the far less densely populated geography as compared to the rest of the Philippines. However, there are small villages and townships still located along the coastline of northeastern Luzon. Hopefully the center makes landfall where one of those villages aren't located. Additionally, you are correct about the threat of inland flooding. This typhoon has a powerful circulation with a very low pressure. As it pushes west, it will be a big threat to higher populated regions of central and western Luzon. That risk can certainly not be downplayed. Edit: Divilacan Bay has several small coastal townships that are the closest to the current projected landfall point. That area was also blasted by Super Typhoon Megi in 2010. Inland flooding from that typhoon displaced 200,000 people as it moved across Luzon. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divilacan,_Isabela https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maconacon,_Isabela
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Ok, great! It wasn't showing any changes for several hours. Glad they're up. Anxious to see what they have to report besides.
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Data equipment and communications obviously failed at the airport on Itbayat.
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The last report from the airport in Banco, which looks like it positioned just under the southern and southeastern edge of the intense eyewall, reported sustained SW winds of 96 mph and gusts to 116. https://www.wunderground.com/ph//basco/zmw:00000.1.98135 No reports out of the island of Itbayat. EDIT: Whooooa there... Banco airport last report is S wind @ 122 mph, 150 mph gust. I don't think it was under the worst of the backside eyewall either. Also looks like they're getting raked with a nasty intensifying outer eyewall.
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Meranti made its first landfall in the Batanes on the island of Itbayat.
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Think I'm buying that 160 kts now. May be even higher. Very symmetrical and expansive cold ring and the eye has further warmed. Really impressive system. In reference to the comparison to Haiyan earlier, Haiyan had a slightly colder ring, but it may have been low-balled on its peak intensity estimates anyway.
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Very close call for the southern tip of Taiwan. The cyclone will probably have a larger core by the time it is at closest proximity there. Even if the inner eyewall doesn't make landfall, it's very likely a concentric outer wall will impact land and they will experience typhoon force winds. For later today, the 06 HWRF has the northern Batanes nearly in the southern eyewall. The town of Banco is in the NW inlet of Batan proper. They will likely experience typhoon force winds even if the eyewall misses the island to the north.
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Yeah, looks like model consensus has shifted south as has JTWC's official forecast. Looks like the core will miss Taiwan and China's mainland will be dealing with a stronger intensity at landfall than previously forecast. This could end up the worst direct wind impacts at landfall for China for many years. The core will likely weaken and drop down to upper Category Three status due to internal reorganization and an expansion of pressure gradient /wind field, but Meranti may have a much larger core by then, affecting a larger area of shoreline with typhoon force winds.
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Haiyan was at a much lower latitude and had better upper tropospheric forcing. Probably the most incredible structure and symmetry we've ever seen in a tropical cyclone. I don't think Meranti can eclipse that. Inevitably, it is going to go through an internal structural change. It may have even peaked. As has been repeated, I wish they had recon over there.
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Wow, this may reign supreme for 2016. Absolute monster...
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Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri
Windspeed replied to Hoosier's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
A .75-1 mile wide wedge tornado with roughly 40mph forward motion combined with EF5 intensity; the circulation had to have some pretty intense inflow. I would consider that the reason it lasted so long wasn't necessarily because folks were inside the condensation of the wedge for 2-3 minutes, but were getting hammered with 60-100mph wind gusts 30-40 seconds before and after it plowed through them. I can't imagine the terror of experiencing such intensity for so long when everything around you is obliterated and the shrapnel-laden wind is basically the equivalent of a shotgun blast. -
Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri
Windspeed replied to Hoosier's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
This may be the most real and disturbing literature I have read with regards to the events that unfolded that day. For all the fascinating aspects of severe weather, the human aspect of loss and death is something that gets separated from science, statistics and the curiosity we all share. We all pour over "the incident" as this thing of wonder and amazement. We all live vicariously through those that experience natural disasters first hand. But in the telling of a personal experience, such as this one, you feel the pull on that place in your guts that makes you a human being. Thanks for posting this, Jomo. Glad you and yours survived unscathed, physically, at least.
