Windspeed

Sam has made a nice recovery this afternoon. SSTs are still a good margin above 28°C. Probably ~28.5 at its location. Plenty of OHC to support reintensification.

This is a low res scan from the onboard radar from most recent recon pass west to east through Sam. The author seems uncertain about the maturity of the outer band, but this looks very much like degradation due to strong subsidence off the SW quad outer eyeband/wall. Also explains the semi-trichoidal motion. We're probably halfway through the current EWRC (at this given scan).

Yes the CDO is giving strong hints of an outer eyewall. Recon has probably arrived at post-peak. Perhaps how low the pressure is now will be a good indicators of how strong it was four-to-six hours ago.

Sam's relative motion actually has not changed all that much over the past 3 hours. But the core is so small / compact that it appears the slow rate is still good enough for the eyewall to replenish over unspent surface heat content without upwelling itself too much. Recon will have better data soon but it does appear that Sam has intensified.

Hope this presentation can persist until recon gets there. Outer banding is intensifying but perhaps wouldn't be quick enough to mature an ERWC to weaken it prior to recon, but you never know.

Re: Forward motion, it does appear that Sam is slowing down. Will be interesting to see what recon find this afternoon. Upwelling may become an issue despite Sam having a relatively small core vorticity maximum. At present this is still a mighty impressive looking Atlantic hurricane.

We're in the midrange now. EPS and the Euro op which had been flirting with the idea of the cutoff trough hugging the inland interior is no longer resolving. So at this point I think it's pretty safe to expect that whatever troughing evolution occurs, it will be too far east to bring Sam back west towards an ECONUS threat. Can't entirely rule out ECAN yet but Sam is looking like a sole threat to Bermuda. So we'll just have to see how that evolves and if Sam comes into close proximity of the island. Sam looks really stable right now. It will be interesting to see how long the core can avoid an ERC. Forward motion is still good enough to avoid upwelling issues, but any slowdown could also induce some weakening. SSTs are still quite warm. I'm not ruling out recon finding a stronger hurricane, but it may be at peak for its life cycle.

Yeah I get the suspect meso/microvortices directtional changes and the 700mb 10% reduction but there was plenty of redundant data to support 130-135 kts / 155 mph on the advisory package. Either way, still an impressively intense Category 4 Cape Verde hurricane.

All excited about the intense Atlantic action, meanwhile the WPAC basin casually ushers out its third Cat 5 of the year. lol...

Yeah, and just as you would have it, as reconnaissance leaves, a strong CB encircles the eyewall. That's the way it goes. lol...

We're not in Storm Mode. If it relates to Sam and is anything meteorological like the question you pose, then just take this to the Sam thread.

You think that's bad? My late grandmother's name was Ida. My father's name is Sam.

lol at that 921 mb wind. I suppose if the pressure falls any further or the wind / pressure gradiant had a little more time before any structural degradation of the eyewall, it might pull off Cat 5. Sam is a compact hurricane. I suppose we'll just have to see how long the core can maintain this structure without concentric banding getting the upper hand. Irma was pretty resilient to full cycle ERCs in this region back in 2017. It would pull off some some kind of absorption of the outer band before it could fully become concentric.

I'm a little leary of >140 kt SFMR readings without similiar flight level readings as well. But Sam is no doubt an intense hurricane. Especially in this region of the MDR. It's in rare company. Think Hugo and Irma. I'd be comfortable with 135 kts / 155 mph on the next advisory.

I'm not even sure why I typed CGs ( i.e cloud-to-ground). I wasn't even thinking CGs when I made the post. But, yes, just GLM remote sensing data.

Tidbits is back up for the moment. NOAA2 (Miss Piggy) is the current recon mission into Sam. There are also active data gathering missions to sample the atmospheric environment for the overnight model suites.

Lightning CGs.

Sam has most likely attained Category 4 intensity. Good time for recon to be en route. I suspect that is what they'll find.

Uh oh..

A reality of improving remote sensing technology and analysis. The science remains the same. If data supports classification, the argument is moot. There isn't an underlying agenda. As has been repeated nearly every time such discussion comes up in a thread, TAFB is responsible for maritime shipping interests, not just coastal threats. If data supports classification or naming and poses potential risk, a forecaster has to make a call. Nothing is perfect but it's their judgements and they have a huge responsibility, so why clutter up these threads with the same old points? Accept it, they're going to do their jobs, move on...

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. HURRICANE SAM FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43 A. 26/1200Z B. NOAA3 0118A SAM C. 26/0800Z D. 13.1N 49.7W E. 26/1045Z TO 26/1345Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. AN AIR FORCE WC-130J FIX MISSION INTO SAM FOR 27/1130Z NEAR 14.6N 52.1W B. A NOAA 49 SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND SAM FOR THE 27/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME, DEPARTING TISX AT 26/1730Z. C. TWO MORE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO SAM, DEPARTING TISX AT 26/2000Z AND 27/0800Z 3. REMARKS: A. THE NOAA 49 G-IV WILL FLY AN 8-HOUR RESEARCH MISSION AROUND SAM, DEPARTING TISX AT 25/1830Z B. THE NOAA 42 P-3 WILL FLY AN 8.5-HOUR RESEARCH MISSION INTO SAM, DEPARTING TISX AT 25/1900Z

Hey no need to take meteorological discussion personal. Yes, the majority of MDR solutions are OTS by the nature of distance and wave perturbations. It is what it is... That being said, we're looking for any potential way Sam could impact the ECONUS because that's what makes the discussion interesting. When people proclaim a landfall is going to happen at this range, that is essentially wishcasting. Likewise, to say there's no way this makes ECONUS landfall is also premature. We are getting into the midrange in time period for our steering features so we can start saying something is unlikely. I have no issue with that. I mean, landfall is unlikely. Here is the big caveat though. We have a big wrinkle in the buildup stuck in the downstream pattern that the models are still ironing out even into the midrange. How does the cutoff trough feature evolve and how close does Sam get within juxtaposition. If that trough retrogrades SW, then we significantly increase the chances of a landfall, and not just Nova Scotia strong either. OTOH, If the cutoff sticks around over the coastal region/eastern Carolinas, then the door for US landfall closes shut. Simply put, it's going to take another 48 hrs of modeling to know for certain whether Sam is OTS (beyond Bermuda) or a potential threat. No need to get dramatic about that.

28.5-29°C SSTs, negligible shear, has a core per MW, CBs rotating that eyewall feature; all signs point to Sam reaching hurricane status in the AM if at least by Noon AST. No wonder the SHIPs is so pronounced for an RI phase. Only we appear to already be ahead of schedule by 24 hours. Sam will be a classic Cape Verde major hurricane by Saturday, if not sooner.

We have Sam. Let the Dr. Seuss'ing begin.

OTS is not in stone and too far out. You still have a potential maritime block over New Foundland with a cutoff trough over the ECONUS. Can't rule out phase interaction with trough until we're in the midrange. Writing off to OTS at 220-240 hrs is... premature. At least allow interaction time to move into the midrange to provide better timing and positional placement of features.