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Windspeed

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  1. Windspeed
    A PDS is currently out for the ongoing flooding emergency:
  2. Windspeed
    Radar coverage for the eastern half of the island is down at present. Unfortunately, a strong backside circulation feeder band with enhanced southerly flow is aligned and curving upslope right over the Big Island. Radar would most likely show an ongoing firehouse if it were still operational. You will notice the lightning showing where the deepest cells are likely training under the deepest convection.
  3. Windspeed
    I am not confident we will see substantial ACE accrued in the Atlantic Basin this year. We may get a TC that finds its way into the right synoptic pattern at the right time to become a hurricane, regardless of land threat, but I do not forsee any long tracking systems remaining powerful for a duration that would stack ACE points. There will just be too much airmass expanding away from the Pacific from the mid-to-upper levels shearing off whatever might develop in the Atlantic MDR.
  4. Windspeed
    Crazy total rain accumulations have occurred over the eastward facing volcanic slopes of Kilauea and Mauna Loa massifs. Not unexpected, but hopefully more populated residential areas have avoided high water this morning.
  5. Windspeed
    Hrmm...
  6. Windspeed
    I actually like the call for minimal hurricane on the closest approach. Though the discussion mentioned not much change in organization or intensity in the past six hours, Lala's core structure is starting to show some interesting signs it may be about to begin a period of intensification. Over the past several hours, organizing banding is wrapping near the CoC. Additionally, some deeper convection is now firing within that interior band, and radar also suggests a shallow ring is evolving. SSTs are running above 27-27.5°C at that location, which is above normal aided by the strengthening El Niño. I'd favor steady intensification now despite any lingering dry airmass and status quo at this point.
  7. Windspeed
    That is just not a great look for the first potential MDR system. A wall of strong mid-to-upper shear with a sharp trough or cutoff as it moves NE of the Lesser Antilles has stayed persistent between 72 and 144 hrs over the past day or two of operational runs. May have to pay attention to the MDR setup if perhaps a second system can organize behind the first, where it could slip into better upper support or pocket of favorablility. But my enthusiasm is very much lacking so far for the first.
  8. Windspeed
    The OBS make logical sense. Though Dolphin's eyewall has clearly intensified, the expansive sink and spread out low pressure surface trough due to many days of large eyewalls and concentric banding now surround the central vorticity maximum and core (i.e. background pressures are very low around the typhoon's envelope). Dolphin won't increase the overall maxium wind too significantly. However, it will allow strong winds to mix down better in the eye. Still an impressive system regardless if it is not capable of reaching high end typhoon status again.
  9. Windspeed
    Land interaction appears to have allowed Dolphin's inner core to tighten up over the past 12 hours. The satellite presentation sort of speaks for itself. The inner eyewall has remained over water while any concentric banding is moving directly over the mountainous terrain of Okinawa and surrounding peaks of Nakijin. Fractional convergence is winning, and Dolphin's eyewall appears to be intensifying at present. Several CBs rotating around allowing the CDO to cool in the process. A magnificent satellite presentation.
  10. Windspeed
    Spiral galaxy mode engaged.
  11. Windspeed
    Dolphin is definitely winning in beauty points. Absolutely gorgeous expansive typhoon.
  12. Windspeed
    Dolphin appears to be entering a new phase of intensification. Dual CBs are currently rotating around the core. Tops are getting colder with a notable HT. The core looks overall healthier than the past few days. Again, the gradient may still be too spread out to actually make another run at Super Typhoon status, but clearly, some intensification is underway as ADT numbers are back on the increase.
  13. Windspeed
    It's pretty fascinating thermal dynamics at play with Dolphin. The system remains in relatively low shear. It has already gone through numerous EWRCs. The typhoon has morphed from a deep, heavily banded system to one of multiple concentric rings that tend to hinder the core. Yet, shear should remain light. It will be moving across another degree Celsius or two of higher heat content. It will be interesting to see if Dolphin can reestablish enough intense core convection to tighten its gradient. It most likely will not reattain super typhoon status again. But it may have another period of strengthening. We shall see...
  14. Windspeed
    Dolphin is evolving into a Caterpillar 797 tire..
  15. Windspeed
    Yes, the grass never seems to dry off regardless of whether it rains that day. Mowing is a pain in the ass of late.
  16. Windspeed
    Kudos to the UKMET. Especially with the eventual westward component that it started suggesting before anything else. A few days ago, the ensembles latched onto taking the feature into the WATL. I was confident of that as well. But confidence means little in the early stages of a disorganized system caught between several dominant features and weak steering currents that are not fully resolved. Now, we have to see how convection evolves with the overall broader surface low. If a smaller vorticity becomes dominant, location if where that occurs will be critical to how long this system remains over water versus the gradual westward turn. Regardless, it looks like copius rainfall is on the menu for the Panhandle/So. Alabama, MS, and LA.
  17. Windspeed
    The lightning in these overnight cells gets intense, and if you happen to find yourself under one, look out. I had a tree struck around 2AM here. Virtually no wind. Just periods of frequent CGs.
  18. Windspeed
    If nothing else, at least it is a feature to track and watch. There is nothing much to add beyond the most recent posts. Spot on. It's a mid-level system / pulsing MCS. Let's see if it will ramp up again this evening. We need persistent deep convection to drive inflow and get vorticity to resolve in the low levels. That happening out over the GOM sooner than later determines if we get a TC or just beneficial rains to the upper peninsula. Again, it's something interesting to watch, and we may not get many of these this season.
  19. Windspeed
    Potential surface disturbance in the NE GOM is still hinted by ensembles. But realistically, any surface low would need steering currents to remain weak to gain development time and any potential vorticity to resolve away from land for something substantial to form.
  20. Windspeed
    Ditto.
  21. Windspeed
    Oh no!! He will be greatly missed! Thank you GaWx for letting everyone know. Rest in peace, Roger. May your contests be forever eternal in the great beyond.
  22. Windspeed
    If El Niño is strong, which I do think it will be, it should, in theory, give the Atlantic a break this year. That doesn't mean we still won't see a few hurricanes or perhaps even a few landfalls. The old saying, it only takes one while recalling Andrew in '92, a strong Niño year, etc.; however, I would expect overall activity to be below normal for seasonal numbers. Too much shear and unfavorability across the basin should curb CV long-trackers. Obviously, if ENSO doesn't swing too positive or the Niño is weaker, then anything is on the table. As of now, based on current trends, I do expect below normal overall activity in 2026 for the Atlantic basin.
  23. Windspeed
    I think KTRI officially got down to -3°F at the airport, but my vehicle read -5°F at work in Bristol. Either way, an official new record low temperature for February 2nd. Fortunately, there's no wind, so there's no real difference in wind chill.
  24. Windspeed
    We are either going to tie or break our record low for KTRI by daybreak. Skies are clear, and I am at 0°F at my location. Showing 1°F at KTRI. The official record low for KTRI on February 2nd is exactly 0°F. With a clear sky and no wind, surely we can drop another degree or two at the airport. Edit: And we officially recorded a new record low for February 2nd. Currently -1°F at KTRI. Edit 2: Posted in the storm OBS thread, but will paste here for posterity. KTRI officially got down to -3°F at the airport, but my vehicle read -5°F at work in Bristol. Either way, an official new record low temperature for February 2nd. Fortunately, there's no wind, so there's no real difference in wind chill.
  25. Windspeed
    It's just too cold for brine to be effective at these temperatures, no? They heavily treated the main road nearby, and it's all white other what they've managed to scrap or plow.
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