wxman

Well, for my part of NJ the GFS is 2" or so while the euro is 2 feet or so.

As I mentioned, this output is just like the 06Z euro control run....which as I read it uses the non-perturbed ensemble members and best available data. That being said, in my experience tracking east coast storms the control does not come close to the operational in terms of what actually occurs when they diverge, have no idea why. In this case they match.

Looks like the end result is similar to the 06z control in our area.

I remember, below is from my archive, mind you we ended with about 5" backlash, and lucky to get even that (sorry for the poor format)! ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING... THE APPROACHING STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IMMEDIATELY. TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE...BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...DO IT BEFORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EXPECT TO WAIT UNTIL MID WEEK. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CONTINUED THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT BEGINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH AREA INCLUDES...BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO...THE FOLLOWING REGIONS. - EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...FROM THE POCONOS DOWN THROUGH THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA. - NORTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. - THE ENTIRE STATE OF DELAWARE. - NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AROUND THE VIRGINIA CAPES ON MONDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG...SLOW MOVING STORM IS FORECAST TO BRING VERY HEAVY SNOW TO THE WATCH AREA AND TO SURROUNDING REGIONS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO FEET WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE REGION. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORM...RESULTING IN BLOWING ND DRIFTING OF SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO DURING MUCH OF THE STORM. ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY BY DAYBREAK. AT THAT POINT IT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. BY MID DAY...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HAVE SPREAD UP ABOUT AS FAR AS PHILADELPHIA AND TOMS RIVER...IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MEANWHILE...THE RAIN IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW. DURING THE BALANCE OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SNOW WILL SPREAD UP INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY...THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

Steady light snow, new coating. 28.

.5" final here. Looks pretty though. 29.

.5", light snow. temp 30

Flipped to snow at 7:30am. Temp 34.

Moderate snow just broke out here at 8:57am. 34 degrees,

Got 1.3" before the changeover. Wet snow shower now in progress. 35 degrees.

Let us dream..............

Steady very light snow. Temp 24.

It definitely seems the writing is on the wall with this one, but we are still talking about a storm 3 full days away...and the interactions that screw us come into play later in that range. A lot could still change for the better. Low probability but far from no chance.

Checked my archives, the above refers to March 4-6 2001. Biggest bust I can recall, 1 to 2 feet had been forecast. This was from the winter storm discussion, only problem is the storm was not captured, it scooted right by our latitude: LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AROUND THE VIRGINIA CAPES ON MONDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA ON ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

If this thing were headed out to sea and we were relying on some complex interaction to suck it back to us it would never happen no matter what any model said. There was a situation years ago now, I think a March storm, where that was the set up. All the models said it would happen, and it didn't at least at our latitude. Predicted big snows ended up a few inches of mess.

Climo also favors up or off the coast versus through central PA.

Me too, if you look at most of the guidance out to 84 including 12z NAM you either think OTS or blizzard for us. No way a cutter.

Can't deny this based on the models...but decades spent on this hobby tells me that what the models are showing is pretty unusual. Definitely can happen but when you see the placement of the storm in the SE that screams major winter storm for us. Then the GEFS losing all its western member with even an east lean now suggests potentially good times 3-4 days out, plus the euro has definitely lost at least a bit of it's shine.

Looking at the US models this morning hour by hour I thought this thing might slide east, a miss, until later in the runs. Then looking at the GEFS we see a BM track with the western members now gone. I don't know what to think at this point.

Agree, as you know from my posts in the PHL forum.

In that case take a blend of the models, LOL!

lock it up!

5.5" here OTG. 26 degrees.

5.5" final here.