wxman
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Everything posted by wxman
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Got 1.3" before the changeover. Wet snow shower now in progress. 35 degrees.
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Let us dream..............
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It definitely seems the writing is on the wall with this one, but we are still talking about a storm 3 full days away...and the interactions that screw us come into play later in that range. A lot could still change for the better. Low probability but far from no chance.
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Checked my archives, the above refers to March 4-6 2001. Biggest bust I can recall, 1 to 2 feet had been forecast. This was from the winter storm discussion, only problem is the storm was not captured, it scooted right by our latitude: LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AROUND THE VIRGINIA CAPES ON MONDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA ON ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
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If this thing were headed out to sea and we were relying on some complex interaction to suck it back to us it would never happen no matter what any model said. There was a situation years ago now, I think a March storm, where that was the set up. All the models said it would happen, and it didn't at least at our latitude. Predicted big snows ended up a few inches of mess.
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Me too, if you look at most of the guidance out to 84 including 12z NAM you either think OTS or blizzard for us. No way a cutter.
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Can't deny this based on the models...but decades spent on this hobby tells me that what the models are showing is pretty unusual. Definitely can happen but when you see the placement of the storm in the SE that screams major winter storm for us. Then the GEFS losing all its western member with even an east lean now suggests potentially good times 3-4 days out, plus the euro has definitely lost at least a bit of it's shine.
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Looking at the US models this morning hour by hour I thought this thing might slide east, a miss, until later in the runs. Then looking at the GEFS we see a BM track with the western members now gone. I don't know what to think at this point.
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Agree, as you know from my posts in the PHL forum.
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lock it up!
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January 7th First Snow for some N&W folks Discussion
wxman replied to ChescoWx's topic in Philadelphia Region
5.5" here OTG. 26 degrees. -
5.5" final here.
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4" down at 5am. Heavy snow.
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How does this support your position in any respect? "2nd largest city" yet among the fewest posters compared with other forums on the "east coast"? And, don't get "hung" up when I mention size, that's not really the issue, the issue is that most of the time outside of impending or ongoing snowstorms, there are literally a handful of posters (again, being kind) and crickets. That may be fine by you, but up to AMWX to decide if it's what's best for its business.
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What these guys here are arguing amounts to arguing that Peoria and Chicago should each have their own forums.
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Fair enough...but your exact reasoning would want me and countless others to read your posts to understand my/their weather. Whether doing so is best done jumping from forum to forum is the issue, and I just think it's not. I could be wrong about this but I would think that even PHL and NYC combined it would still be one of the smaller(est) forums in terms of geography. Just makes sense to me given the relative lack of activity here, and even NYC to a lesser degree.
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Seeing this, maybe I will stir the pot a little. Quite honestly the best (though still not great nor accurate) explanation for the perimeter of this forum is that it covers the Mt. Holly NWS region. OK, first, that's not accurate, this forum covers "PHL metro, South and Central NJ, Northern DE and South Central PA." While this includes the Mt Holly area, the latter area also includes Sussex cty NJ and Carbon cty Pa. That fact eliminates the justification for this forum based on the notion that it covers only the local weather of the people who object to merger. Conversely. Mt. Holly covers Middlesex cty NJ while Upton NWS covers Union (the counties are right next to each other). I've come to the conclusion that the objectors like a smaller group and/or like those who are still in this forum, and not so much the "NYC types." That's OK I suppose but recognize it for what it is; it has little to do with local weather. So to JTA66, ask yourself, does a poster in Cape May cares that people in Lansdale are "seeing flakes"? And, FWIW, I as well as many in the Mt. Holly region saw those same flakes last night.
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I get your point of view, but to be clear no one posting here "stirred the pot" as the thread was started by a mod who raised the issue for reasons I think are obvious. I think my final word on this will be this: for those looking for local obs (as you and others say) then one (or a few) ongoing threads for each locale within a larger, more vibrant forum makes more sense to me compared with what looks to me as a pretty slow (being kind here) forum Peace.
