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wxman

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Everything posted by wxman

  1. wxman
    Very volatile and unstable situation. Places in eastern Pa that got 2 feet plus on the RGEM get 7" on the NAM.
  2. wxman
    Why is it that even if all the models were showing a direct hit we would not be the least bit surprised of a shift a few hundred miles to screw us? YES, I get what the models are showing and a miss makes perfect sense at this time, but the models aren't close to perfect at this range and enough of a shift could still happen that gets us into the good snows. Could also miss further south or develop too late, but this will hold my interest until at least the 00z runs tomorrow.
  3. wxman
    Well, if you take the GFS as depicted at hr 126 and move the features NW by 100 miles then much of central NJ would be into significant snow. What's "much more"? If we move those features NW by 200 miles we'd be looking at P-type issues. Anyway, I would feel no more confident in a snowstorm next Friday even if the GFS showed exactly the right setup at this range.
  4. wxman
    No, but the modeling could EASILY adjusted the latitude of the key players 100 miles or more in that timeframe, and that's all it would take and then some. By 2pm the euro could show a nice hit and the GFS nothing a few hours later. There is a nice storm signal and that's really all that's important at this point.
  5. wxman
    "caved"? This is out over 120 hrs.
  6. wxman
    snowing here at 33 ground is white.
  7. wxman
    Hard to measure and compacted down but total OTG is 5.5" with steady light snow still falling. 24 degrees.
  8. wxman
    Between 3-1/2 and 4-1/2". Hard to measure with the blowing. temp steady at 23.
  9. wxman
    It's snowing like a beast. I see it and radar confirms it. Just blasted over 2". Maybe you live in a microclimate.
  10. wxman
  11. wxman
    Pouring snow as of now, 1.5" down. temp 23
  12. wxman
    Enjoy, I like reading your posts in your sub forum.
  13. wxman
    1" down. 23 degrees.
  14. wxman
    Moderate snow, everything but roads (treated) now covered. Temp 26/DP 21
  15. wxman
    Love, you Walt, and your a pros pro, of course.....but "To me one bad sign... too much sun 6-8 hrs before an event starts. The classics have a long slow process of thickening and lowering cigs." I mean, really? That sounds like something I might say, LOL. In any event, clouds are lowering and thickening here. Best of luck to all!
  16. wxman
    Yup. 13-16+ all of NJ from Raritan bay north.
  17. wxman
    Don't worry about dire predictions for the rest of this winter. Last year some of the best and brightest were predicting an epic winter, and we know how that turned out. In these parts very hard to tell what will happen. The stars have to align no matter the overall pattern, and when they do they do. I think that unpredictability and scarcity fuels the obsession.
  18. wxman
    It seems to me the sleet on the NAM (at least the 3K) is dependent on lighter precip/dry slotting. If we can keep that at bay we can tack on a few more inches. Still time for even more improvements.
  19. wxman
    I'd say more like 2-3 hrs sleet as depicted, but still moving in the right direction.
  20. wxman
    LOL, and before eastern those message boards. Getting old my friend, but not too old for good times!
  21. wxman
    Doesn't this happen almost every storm? And, yet, we forget.
  22. wxman
    One more tick SE and it will be the storm we had been expecting. Not impossible at all.
  23. wxman
    Looks like euro is 10 plus for most of the forum except immediate coast, LOL, now watch it be wrong. Not the king it used to be.
  24. wxman
    I got 23.5" in that one. I think even Southern NJ joined that party, 13.4" at AC airport. This depiction is further north and not as heavy anywhere.
  25. wxman
    I'll take a no power blizzard over full power but no storm.
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