mitchnick

Call me a , but I think it's important for Sunday's system to hit as consensus is now showing. Bob Chill calls them train tracks while I call it seasonal pattern, the point is that there are areas favored in every season. The MA generally was the bullseye last Monday and would at least do as well as any other area with Sunday's current consensus. We couldn't ask for more if we are looking for a seasonal pattern imho. Obviously, no guarantees and there could be different areas in the MA favored over others with each storm. But in short, it's a good sign for future threats despite model runs.

6z Rgem held serve https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011606&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=prateptype-imp&m=rdps

Cycles are 8AM for 6z; 2PM for 12z; 8PM for 18z; 2AM for 0z.

The winner is the EuroAI while the operational is the dog.

It can be just as bad as the Gfs.

Let me just say to all the Euro lovers...you're crazy. I told JI last night it flip-flops like all the models. It is NOT the Euro if old relative to the other models.

Euro can flip-flop like the best of them. 3.5 days away still.

AI has been consistent with a hit thru 18z run.

Ukie verification is 2nd to Euro and Canadian 3rd. Don't know where Icon is, but has snow.

Ukie Sunday

Ukie

What cluster and turn around over the last 24 hrs. Nothing more to say until or unless another turn around occurs.

18z AI lost ALL qpf other than Sunday, which was a little lighter. Artificial intelligence my arse! https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501151800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501160000

18z AI a little drier than 12z mainly on the north side. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501151800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501160000

Let's hope not. A bit surprising how different the operational and AI have been on this. Recent events have had them pretty similar.

Good to finally have this nailed down.

To think that the Gfs will prevail, which has had it as nothing of consequence all along, is a scary and sobering thought.

Rgem at 84hrs looks nearly identical to 12z Gem at 90hrs fwiw.

I had to give you something to do

If I could step in and say from experience that it's just best not to respond to others you may not agree with historically. For example, there's a guy on this site who I won't even answer. He's nothing but trouble. I can't remember his screen name, but all I can say is that I Hate'm. I mean I really Hate'm and have stopped all contact. Just a thought. P.s. intended as a joke by the way

Seems the difference between the dry solutions and wet ones are the extent of the eastward progress of the cold. Gem, for example, has the least eastward progression and the strongest storm, albeit too far west outside the foothills and west.

Tell that to my wife.

Nope. Opposite! Lol

EuroAI MUCH wetter for Sunday and a light to mod hit for Wednesday. Here's the link to scroll through precip. Easier thame posting separate maps. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501151200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501151800

I'm numb. Don't recall seeing such a spread, both Sunday and next week.